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金錢的故事 The Ascent of Money – Niall Ferguson

hevangel 17th Nov 2010 - 10:54pm 華洋書塾

上次去印度時買了這本《金錢的故事》﹐想不到閱讀進度甚慢﹐時隔半年又回到印度出差﹐才有時間讀全本書寫書評。雖有這本書的名稱說是關於金錢﹐正確點來說是關係金融體係發展的歷史。作者是哈佛大學教授﹐應PBS電視台邀請﹐拍攝講述金融歷史的記錄節目。電視節目叫好叫座﹐作者亦順勢把節目內容整理出書﹐六集節目變為書中的六章。由於從電視節目改篇成書的關係﹐這本書讀起來十分容易﹐不過內容則受原裝電視節目結構的限制﹐每一章也是個獨立單元﹐讀起來缺乏連貫性。內容為遷就電視觀眾的水平﹐加入很多有趣的歷史故事﹐但前因後果的歷史分析則相對較弱。

第一章開完名義﹐講述金錢的歷史和銀行的誕生﹐從古代銅錢貨幣開始說起﹐到中世紀以貴重金屬作為媒介﹐到來各國發行紙幣取代金屬﹐到近代索性取消貨幣黃金本位﹐到最後金錢連實體也失去﹐變成電腦內的一堆數字。作者引用大量歷史資料﹐指出金錢在歷史中的重要性﹐十字東征是其中一個原因﹐是歐洲大量流失貴重金屬﹐導致貨幣供應短缺。到殖民地時代的西班牙﹐因發現印卡王國的白銀寶庫﹐一船船把白銀運回國引致嚴重通貨棚漲﹐最後弄至經濟一廞不振﹐衰失海上霸主的地位。後半段介紹文藝復興時期的Mediccis家族﹐當年的銀行主要是做貨幣對換的生意﹐利用消息靈通時間上的優勢﹐以猶太人的身份和一個家族的緊密連繫﹐發展出橫跨歐洲各國﹐富可敵國的跨國銀行。最初銀行只做存錢和商業交數﹐到了十七世紀端士銀行發明借錢﹐在假定有存戶不會同時間提出所有存款的前題下﹐銀行可以把收到的存款借出賺取利息。以前銀行主要收入靠收取手續費﹐現代的銀行已轉型變為資產和風險管理。

第二章講述債卷的誕生﹐債卷是國家向人民或外國的借錢的工具﹐最初發行主要用來支付戰爭開支。戰勝國自然有能力償還債卷﹐戰敗國的債卷則變成癈紙﹐當年買債卷可以說是在賭那個國家會打勝仗。在歐洲各國還在打來打去的年代﹐出了一名債卷專家Rothschild﹐包攬各國債卷的發行和行銷。因為戰爭說到底也是在拼財力﹐Rothschild的債卷決定足以左右一個國家的命運﹐美國內戰中南方運戰敗的其中一個原因﹐便是因為經濟實力比北方差﹐而又借不所行軍打仗所需的資金。到了十九世紀殖民地時代﹐殖民地發行的債卷﹐竟然比宗主國還有更高的評級。債卷的評級取決於還款能大﹐宗主國軍力強大很難迫他還錢﹐但殖民地債卷在宗主國有很多債主﹐宗主國有實際統治權﹐不怕殖民地走數壞賬。

第三章講述股票﹐在股票出現以前﹐公司與擁有公司的那個人關係不可分割﹐有了股票能分散公司的擁有權﹐識公司可以在市場上集資。最初的股票發行的是荷蘭的遠洋商船隊﹐因為風險大但利潤高﹐才想到以發行股票的形式去集資﹐發放股息分享利潤﹐並設立股票交易市場﹐讓想套現的人買賣股票。因為荷蘭海軍實力強大﹐遠洋商船隊是很好的投資﹐直致荷蘭的海上霸權被英國取代﹐股票的升幅高達每年27%。有股票自然會有泡沬﹐史上第一個泡沬由英國人John Law發明﹐他游說到法國皇帝給他北美殖民地的貿易專營權。他的公司用優厚股票吸引投資者﹐但本身只是一個錢滾錢的龐底騙局。他的公司因為有皇帝撐腰﹐吸引很多貴族投資﹐讓他結交政治勢力﹐還讓他當了法國的財相。泡沬最後爆煲是經濟定律﹐他既然身為法國財相﹐有能力左右法國的貨幣政策﹐便想透過貶值來阻止泡沬爆破﹐結果把法國的經濟弄得一團糟﹐埋下法國大革命的導火線。這章最後一節﹐講述本世紀華爾街股票的興衰﹐不過這些陳年歷史因為近年金融海嘯﹐早已給傳媒翻炒了多次。

第四章講述保險的發明。現在保險推銷員人見人憎﹐想不到最初保險竟然教會發明﹐用意是照顧意外離世牧師﹐遺留下來的弧兒寡婦。後來蘇格蘭人把保險應用在航運上﹐為出航的船隻提供天災人禍的保障。在發明統計學以前﹐賣保險與賭錢沒有分別﹐蘇格蘭人精於計算﹐很快便把統計學應用在保險上﹐以人口壽命計算出風險與保費的關係。蘇格蘭的寡婦基金﹐更一度是英國最大的投資公司﹐後來演變成今天的保險公司。醫療保險和年老退休保險﹐今天是左派社會福利主義的招牌﹐估不到竟然是極右派納萃德國和軍國主義的日本發明。社會福利制度的邏輯很簡單﹐國民要身體健康軍隊才會強大﹐對未來生活有潼景﹐才會為國家效忠。賣命。本世紀統計數學上有重大突破﹐直接速成風險管理基金的興起。

第五章講樓市﹐香港地產只有個炒字。估不到在歷史上﹐地產與民主原來有直接關係。英美的民主發展﹐很大程度上是源於市民要保護個人資產的需求。而民主推行的初期﹐只有樓在手的市民﹐才擁有投票權。金融海嘯源於次按﹐作者也花了很長篇幅講述按揭市場的歷史﹐並追朔美國兩大房貸公司﹐最初以追求全民有樓政治任務才成立的歷史。市民擁有房屋不單是經濟問題﹐更可以影響社會文化﹐對自由和個人權利的取態。

最後一章有點雜亂﹐講下第一代全球化即舊殖民時代的全球經濟﹐第一代全球化直到第一次世界大戰才結束。。接下來講下經濟殺手又講下索羅斯﹐不過我讀看經濟殺手的原著﹐這一節的內容沒有新意。當然不能不提諾貝爾經濟獎得主的LTCM基金﹐以為他發明的數學可以預測一切﹐卻計算漏了自身的行為會影響市場﹐結果鑲成八九年的金融風暴。最後一節講下現在全球經濟﹐中美兩大經濟巨頭的較量﹐這部文章內容水分大多﹐內容與平時報章看到的大同小異。

最後全書總結金融體系的發展歷史﹐並指出雖有經濟系統幾百年的經歷不斷進化﹐人類並不是全然經濟理性的動物﹐很多時不能作出最合適的決定。現代經濟體系複雜無比﹐但同時亦十分脆弱﹐只要爆發全球性戰爭﹐便足以破壞幾百年的經濟進化。

264 3 華洋書塾

Audio Technica ATH-ANC25

hevangel 16th Nov 2010 - 01:17pm Product Reviews

I have been using my old Creative noise cancellation head phone for a few years. It is starting to falling apart after all this years of good service and my abuses from 5 Indian trips. The wire connection is getting lose and sometimes the left side has no sound. It is time to get a new noise cancellation head phone for my yet another India trip.

I have been looking into buying a noise cancellation head phone for quite some time. The offering at Future Shop or Best Buy are limited. They are only selling Sony, Philips, JVC even Maxwell noise cancellation head phones. None of those brands are particularly great and they almost double the price I paid for my old Creative head phone. One day I was having lunch at Broadway and I came across into Headphone Bar, a small shop focus in selling high end head phones. It only sells brands well known among Hi-Fi fans but normally don’t available in chain electronic stores.

Headphone Bar has two new noise cancellation headphones from Audio Technica, which is a well known Japanese band, ATH-ANC27, a bigger cover the ear model and ATH-ANC25, a smaller model. The ATH-ANC27 is pretty expensive but the ATN-ANC25 is only $99, so I decide to give it a try. The moment I put it on, I already like the head phone. The ear mug is very comfortable and cancellation is good. One feature I like is the wire is detachable, so I can just wear the head phone in flight without the wire dangling over me. Since I am flying out in a few days, I don’t have time to order the head phone online or double check its review. I took my chances and bought it right on the spot.

When I got home I checked the internet to confirm my buying decision. It turns out the price I paid is the exactly list price on the web. I can find it less than $10 cheaper on eBay, so the shop does not mark up the price. Then I look at the online reviews, it turns out the ATN-ANC27 is the next generation of ATH-ANC7b and its quality almost on par with the Bose Quietcomfort 3, which is absolutely the best noise cancellation headphone. The ATN-ANC25 is the little brother of ATN-ANC27, the only difference is the padding size and the power of the sound driver. It also has very good review, it is the best noise cancellation in the sub $100 category.

I tried my new headphone on my flight from Vancouver to India. The noise cancellation is better than my old creative headphone. In the old headphone, the static pink noise was very obvious and the new headphone is much quieter. One feature I like is the wire has a volume control, so I can easily adjust the volume. The only complain is the 2-pins to 1-pin in-flight audio adapter is very flimsy. It is broken when I squeezed through the sleeping guy sitting next to me to go to the toilet. The adapter just a piece of cheaper plastic with 2 wires and I can get replacement in HK for less than $3.

Overall, I am very happy with my new noise cancellation headphone. Highly recommended for long flight, it will give you have a good night of quiet sleep.

69 0 Product Reviews

Samsung Galaxy S Captivate

hevangel 12th Nov 2010 - 09:30pm Product Reviews

My Palm Treo has reached the end of its lift, it is time to buy a new cell phone. I have been debating whether or not should I get the iPhone 4. iPhone 4 is sleek but I disapprove the control freak business tactics of Apple. Although almost everyone around me use a iPhone, I decide to go against the trend and embrace Android, a truly open platform compare to Apple’s walled garden. I naturally picked the Samsung Galaxy S, since it is the flagship Android phone and its specification is on par with iPhone 4. I used Rogers, so I have to picked up the AT&T version of Galaxy S Captivate. All Galaxy S versions are essentially the same under the hood, only cosmetic difference on the shell.

Galaxy S is actually slightly lighter and thinner than the iPhone 4. The Captivate looks like a Blackberry while the Vibrate looks like a iPhone. I must admit iPhone has better design of the shell, however that’s purely cosmetic. Galaxy S use normal SIM card, I just plug in my old SIM card it simply works. It comes with 16GB internal RAM and a micro SD card slot, so I can expand the memory if I ever need more, another point winning over iPhone. The screen and sound quality is top-notch, although the screen resolution is slightly less than iPhone 4. The battery is pretty good, I can watch 5 hours of video before runs out of the battery. In stand by mode with Wi-fi data enabled for background update and occasional short phone calls, it used about 20% in a day.

The contact and calendar links up to my gmail and facebook account. Since all the data is stored in Google’s server, I don’t have to worry about sync up with my computer and I can access my data anywhere. Transfer contact from my Palm is really easy, I just need to export the old address book to a vcf file and then import it to gmail, I got all the numbers and addresses into the phone in less than 30 seconds.

The haptic feedback of the screen is nice, every time I press a button or a key on the screen, the phone will vibrate to give me a freedback. The swype keyboard is definitely an improvement over iPhone. I don’t have to lift my finger when I type, I can simply trace the characters on the screen. I think with enough practice, I can type in swype as almost as good as using a real keyboard. The only complain is the stock OS does not come with Chinese input, I have to download the Chinese IME separately.

For most applications your found in iPhone, you can find the pretty much the same on Android. The Android apps market is the equivalent of the iTune app store. I can find most of the apps I need for free. I can also download paid software without paying from Applanet instead of download from the Google Market. iPhone boost to have many more apps than Android, but most of those extra apps belongs to the long tail that nobody really use. Android allows game console emulators, combined with the one stop game ROM download apps, I play virtually every single old games from the 80s and 90s on my phone.

iPhone has has a one stop sync up solution for music and video files with iTunes. Android does not come with any fancy sync up tools. Although Samsung has the Kies software but it is not very user friendly. For better or worse, a Android phone can just act like any other USB driver. I can easily copy files between my computer and my phone using Windows Explorer. I have a few options if I don’t want to plug in the USB cable all the time. I can either run FTP client from the phone to log into the FTP server on my computer or run FTP server on the phone and log in from my computer. The only problem is FTP cannot not handle Chinese character properly. Double Twist Air Sync comes close to a one stop solution, but its file database still has too much influence from iTune and does not let me control the directory structure. Web Sharing seems very promising, I can mount my phone as a network drive on my computer.

The stock Captivate comes with Android 2.1, so I decided to upgrade the OS to 2.2. Flashing the ROM of your cell phone is not for the fainted heart. I bricked my phone a few times before I get the new OS up and running. Instead of using the Samsung stock firmware, I used the Cognition ROM, which is better performance and has more features built into the OS. It double the speed of the stock ROM according to benchmark result. This is a major advantage of Android over iPhone, I can do whatever I want with the cell, including installing a complete new OS.

Android is not only a smart phone, but is really a full function computer inside your pocket. It just happen to be I can also make phone calls from this pocket computer. After all Android is Linux under the hood, with the root control I have complete control any feature of the phone.

2,336 0 Product Reviews ,

PHIL333 Philosophy of Biology 生物哲學

hevangel 7th Nov 2010 - 08:47pm 哲道閒人

因搬屋加工作繁忙﹐停學了差不多一年﹐上個學期重拾書包﹐再回山頂大學公餘兼讀哲學。可能是夏天學期學生少的關係﹐連帶課程的選擇也比較少﹐沒有我主修的道德或政治哲學的課﹐其他比較有興趣的課偏偏又排返工時間﹐只有這門生物哲學正好在午飯時間上課﹐於是在沒有其他選擇下便讀了這科。

其實學開前我也不太清楚這科的內容是什麼﹐因為這科沒有指定課本﹐教授每個星期給我們挑選哲學期刊的文章作教材。最大的好處是文章可以免費在大學的圖書館下載﹐不用花百多元買磚頭般厚的哲學課本。其次是課程緊貼學術界的最新發展﹐不用只學收錄在課本那些死去哲學家的名著﹐可以親身體驗現在最具爭議性的議題。在探討進化論本質的環節﹐教授更播放Youtube影片﹐累加式進化論和淘汰式進化論兩大陣營中﹐兩位最具代表性的哲學家的電視辯論。

課程分為六個部份﹐第一部份很短﹐簡單地重溫神創論的謬誤﹐先讀Paley那篇鐘錶匠論證的經典文章﹐然後再讀另一篇經典推翻盲目的鐘錶匠﹐內容與哲學入門教過的大同小異。上完前菜入正題﹐討論進化論在哲學上的意義﹐與及其衍生的相關問題。第二部份探討進化論在生物學外的應用﹐討論社會達爾文理論的影響。最常見對社會達爾文理論的批評﹐便是希特拉以此背書其優生學和族種主義﹐不過社會達爾文理論本身﹐只是把進化這個慨念應用在歷史和社會學的理論中。

第三部份講述有關進化論本身的不當謬誤﹐其中一個進化論的支持者常犯的毛病﹐高舉進化論萬能﹐以為什麼可以用進化論解釋﹐甚至無中生中作故事來自圓其說。可是有些生物的特徵﹐根本並非從進化而來﹐只是偶然地發展成現在的樣子﹐又或者只是另外一些特徵進化帶來的副產品。進化不一定是適者生存﹐生存可能只是因為運氣好。閱讀的文章中打個比喻說明這個問題﹐很多歐洲的中世紀教堂﹐擁有華麗巨型屋頂﹐屋頂下以要拱型作支撐。兩個拱型交換的地方﹐工匠和藝術家總愛把那兒裝飾得美侖美喚。可是如果說建築師特意建做拱型﹐好讓藝術家來擺放他們的作品﹐便是完全本末倒置了。只是因為要起巨型屋頂﹐必需面拱型支撐﹐那個多出來的空間﹐恰好被藝術家借了來用吧。

第四部份探討累加式進化論和淘汰式進化論的分別﹐基本上這涉形上學中因果關係的悖論。到底是進化讓某些生物擁有某些特徵﹐還是某些生物因為擁有某些特徵﹐才讓牠們在進化中沒有被淘汰呢。教授要我們就這個爭論交論文功課﹐我看完正反相方洋洋數萬字的期刊文章﹐得出的結論這是一個雞先還是蛋先的問題﹐雙方只是在咬文嚼字﹐朝不同方向解讀進化論。有些哲學問題看似很高深﹐不過同時間亦很無聊﹐大慨這個問題算是其一了。進化論是累加式還是淘汰式﹐不也還是同一個進化論。

第五部份探討何生學上的功用﹐如何決定一個器官的功用﹐如何分辨什麼是正常的功用。最大問題是功用在進化的意義上﹐與功用在人造設計的意義上﹐有著完全不同的定義。人造設計的功用﹐由設計者的意圖來決定。可是生物沒有設計者﹐生物只是進化出來﹐那生物器宮的功用﹐又是否等同其進化優勢呢﹖眾所周知心臟的功用是泵血﹐但心臟也同是發出啪啪聲的跳動聲音﹐那發出啪啪聲又是否心臟的功用呢﹖有哲學家用統計學去決定器官的功用是否正常﹐問題是如果有天出現超級眼睛病毒﹐讓世界上大部份的人者失明﹐那麼眼睛看得見到東西﹐還是否眼睛的正常功用呢﹖不要以為如何定義功用也只是咬文嚼字的遊戲﹐這個議題牽涉層面很廣泛﹐功用的定義是很多有關生物科技的道德爭議的核心關鍵。

課程的最後一部份﹐討論年頭才剛剛出版的一本新書What Darwin Got Wrong﹐這本書在生物哲學界引起一陣騷動﹐ 因為作者Jerry Fodor從哲學的角度﹐去試圖推翻進化論。作者認為進化論只是一個套套邏輯﹐並非有實質內容的科學理論。奈何這科沒有期終試﹐我亦選定了生物功用作為我的論文功課題目﹐最後幾節課並沒很有用心去上﹐這本書買回來翻了沒有幾多頁﹐所以我也不太清楚這本書的內容。或許有空我會拿出來閱讀﹐看看進化論如何被推翻。

功課一﹕累加進化論vs淘汰進化論

功課二﹕生物學中功能的定義

165 0 哲道閒人 ,

Macross (PS2)

hevangel 1st Nov 2010 - 10:52pm 遊戲人生

當熟識的「超時空要塞」片頭音樂在電腦喇叭響起﹐心中不禁有一點感動﹐終於守得雲開見月明﹐有機會玩這個遊戲了。我自小己是「超時空要塞」的忠實擁躉﹐當年這遊戲在PS2上推出時﹐我有一陣衝動想去買台PS2回來﹐只為了玩這個遊戲。不過那時PS2已接近水尾﹐我又沒有玩電視遊戲的習慣﹐沒有理由花錢買台老機只玩一個遊戲。只好先把遊戲光碟下載了﹐放在電腦內心想日後一定有機會玩。早幾年買對上一台電腦﹐用PS2模擬器試跑這個遊戲﹐可惜當年的電腦實在太慢﹐只有大約一秒四格速度﹐自然沒有辨法玩了。上兩個月買了台新電腦﹐從塵封的硬碟中找出這個遊戲﹐以今天的最新電腦來跑PS2模擬器﹐流暢度與PS2不相伯仲﹐電腦科技的發展真是一日千里。

從最初從網上見到這個遊戲﹐到拿著操控器可以玩過痛快﹐這一等便已過了八年。雖有是八年前的老遊戲﹐遊戲畫面也毫不失禮﹐足以比媲今年一些次等水平的新遊戲。對於一個「超時空要塞」迷﹐可以開著韋基利變型戰機﹐在飛彈亂舞中激烈空戰﹐經歷電視版和電影版所有名場面﹐遊戲的其他方面己經不太苛求。遊戲操控十分容易上手﹐三段變型也各有用途。我最喜愛用戰機模式應戰﹐因為可以大放飛彈和閃避敵人的攻擊。機械人模式用來打接近戰﹐不過只有機關槍和頭炮可以用。半飛機模式理論上應該最好用﹐可是三軸操控太過麻煩﹐總是不能好好地瞄準敵人﹐結果除了要固定浮空的情況外﹐我差不多完全沒有用半飛機模式。

遊戲十分忠於原著﹐電視版路線有十二個任務﹐電影版路線只有八個任務。配合遊戲中林明美的歌聲和原裝配樂﹐彷如置身劇中的感覺。玩家是超時空號上紫色小隊的機師﹐任務上與原著中主角的差不多﹐只不過角色換成為玩家。纖滅任務最容易玩﹐只要小心不被擊落﹐慢慢便可以收拾敵機。限時任務有點難度﹐打敵人母艦或從自爆的母艦中逃走動作要夠快﹐有幾關要打了五六次﹐還借助模擬器的存取功能﹐才能夠順利過關。最難的任務是保護超時空號﹐只靠一台戰機要挺住不斷來襲的敵人﹐漏網之魚便會攻擊超時空號。那個任務我只是勉強挨到超時空號變型﹐超時空號的生命計只餘下一格﹐大慨多中一彈也會玩完。想起來原著中的王牌麥斯﹐也沒有這個一敵百的主角威能。反而對米拿和金正的一對一決鬥很容易﹐電腦的AI不高﹐只要看穿電腦的動作模式﹐便可以很輕鬆地打贏電腦。

這個遊戲的耐玩性不強﹐用了兩天時間便打爆機。玩過所有任務﹐看過所有過場動畫﹐很滿足地完成故事後﹐我並沒有由頭再玩一次的打算。完成任務後可以收集不同形號韋基利﹐自由戰時可選擇任何一台駕駛。原著中主角的限定塗色戰機﹐更要獲取某高分數可以擁有。不過每台韋基利除了顏色和頭上的角不同﹐有背包可以載多點飛彈外﹐操控我感覺不到有任何不同之處。不過每台戰機其實都是VF-1﹐操控感覺相同還可以說得通。最讓我失望的是VF-4﹐那是完成所有任務是特別獎﹐除了外形與VF-1不同外﹐操控與VF-1毫無分別﹐完全不像新一代戰機應有的性能。

從第一代任天堂的開始﹐到超級任天堂﹐到世嘉Saturn﹐PS1的VF-X和PS2的VF-X2﹐還有大大小小的街機遊戲﹐PC的陳年戰棋遊戲和Macross VOXP﹐到最新的PS3 Macross Ace﹐我大慨收集齊全所有「超時空要塞」遊戲。想玩PS2這個遊戲是一個怨念﹐現在總算嘗了這個心願。不過我沒有PS3亦不打算買﹐想玩超時空要塞PS3的遊戲﹐大慨又要另一個漫長的等待﹐到那天電腦的速度夠快跑模擬器﹐才有機會玩了。

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