哲學功課: Does natural selection explain why you and I have opposable thumbs?

進化論的其中一個很多爭議的問題﹐是達爾文提出物競天擇適者生者這個大自然定律﹐不能解釋物種如何進化出某些基因特質。例如生物學家用進化論﹐如何能推論出人類的姆指是從何進化而來呢。哲學家Sober提出一種說法﹐認為進化論根本不能解釋物種如何進化出某些基因特質。進化論應該要反過來解讀﹐去解釋沒有某些基因特質的其他物種為什麼絕種。物種從基因突變產生新的基因特質﹐大自然定律淘汰了不適合生存的基因﹐剩下來的基因便是能夠存活並繁殖後代。另一哲學家Neander則提出相反說法﹐說因為基因轉變有累積性﹐進化論可以解釋物種基因特質的變化。其實這個爭議有點無聊﹐在我看來不過是雙方在咬文嚼字﹐大家對進化論中因果關係的定義沒有共識﹐才會有這個有點牛頭不對馬嘴的辯論。

Does natural selection explain why you and I have opposable thumbs?

In the debate between negative and positive natural selection, Sober argues that natural selection does not contribute to the existence of individual traits within the population. Neander argues that the cumulative natural selection process shapes the genetic properties of the population. Nanay backs up Neander’s claim and argues both arguments do not take limitation of environment resources in the account. In this essay, I will further enhance Nanya’s argument by stressing how direct competition over resource among individuals with different traits can be affected the process natural selection. I will present an argument that cumulative selection process could decisively alter the genetic trait of the population in the presence of direct competition; thus explain the why you and I have opposable thumbs.

In [1], Neander summarize Sober’s argument for the negative view of natural selection. Sober argue that natural selection cannot explain why you and I have opposable thumbs, natural selection can only explain why all our distance cousins without opposable thumbs are eliminated by natural selection. The negative view states that natural selection cannot create new traits; it can only destroy traits that are not fit for survival. The traits of individual either come from inheritance or random mutation. Natural selection did not create the tree of life: it just determines which branches were removed and which remained. [1, p68]. Sober illustrate the negative view of natural selection using an example of a class of third grade students who can read and write at the level of third grade. Every student in the third grade class can read and write at the third grade level because that is exactly the selection criteria of the class. No student who cannot read or write at third grade level is selected into the class in the first place. Therefore, merely the fact that the student is in the third grade class does not explain how each student acquires his reading and writing skill.

In [4], Walsh makes a distinction between two types of explanations national selection, the wide scope and narrow scope. The wide scope explanation explains the frequency of traits within a population is biased by cumulative selection. The narrow scope explanation explains why a given individual possesses a particular trait. Walsh agrees with Neander that natural selection is two-stage process by taking into account of the reproduction factor. In the first stage, the new traits from random mutation are selected to pass down to the offspring. The second stage then has a biased population base to start the next iteration of reproduction. Traits that affect reproductive success will cumulatively alter the population make up in the long run. Walsh argues that the two-stage process only address the wide scope explanation by answering how a trait type is arise within a population from the selection advantage of that trait, but it does not answer the narrow scope question that explains how the trait token occurs in each individual of the population.

In [5], Nanay tries to address the narrow scope question by bringing in another factor into the equation, namely the limitation of resource in the environment. Nanay argues if individuals with different traits are compete for the same environment resources and the total population the environment can support has a limit, then elimination of individuals of one trait alter the chances of survival of other individuals with a different trait. The trait is more fit to survive in the competition of scare resource will have a selection advantage. In short, the distribution of different traits within the population is a zero sum game. The adaptation of one trait is in the expense of another mutually exclusive trait that is inferior in term of survival fitness. The elimination of the later trait is the other side of the same coin of the survival of the former trait. Nanay provides an indirect explanation to the narrow scope question by making the claim that individual with a certain trait exists because its parent with the same trait survive and reach reproductive age thanks to other individual with a different trait in the previous generation failed to survive and reproduce.

In this long debate started by Sober and Neander, we can observe a trend that is going on. The negative view camp first posed a question that cannot be answered by natural selection. The positive view camp counter attack by introducing new parameters into the equation of natural selection and claim there is a causal relationship between the survived trait is the selected trait. For example, Neander introduces the reproduction factor and Nanay introduces the limitation of environmental resources. The negative view camp defense by narrowing the definition of the natural selection question and focus on how the the inheritance linage of an individual occurs. I am not satisfy with Nanay’s indirect explanation because there are still rooms for the negative view camp to further narrow down the natural selection question and dodge the bullet. The elimination of trait B does not necessarily imply the inheritance of trait A, given that there are numerous other traits out there that are also completing for survival. I would like to introduce a parameter into the natural selection equation and seal the escape route of the negative camp once for all. The new parameter I would like to introduce is direct competition of reproduction of individual with different traits within the population. Nanay argues that indirect competition of scared resource in environment for survival and reproduction can indirectly explain why how a particular trait arises in an individual. Then the trait contributes to the direct competition of reproduction and survival can directly explain how a particular trait arises in an individual. Let me illustrate what direct competition is with a real world example, the moose horn. Male moose fight using their horn for the right to mate with female moose. Suppose in one generation, there is a random mutation of the moose horn genes and create two different genetic traits. Trait A is the normal horn gene that grows horn with regular strength. Trait B is the super horn gene that grows much stronger horn. The individual with super horn gene will win the fight and able to mate and reproduce offspring. Those offspring with super horn gene will further displace the normal horn gene in the next generation. By applying mathematical models, given that the survival fitness of individuals with the super horn gene is equal to individuals with normal horn gene in all other aspect, the super horn gene will spread over the entire population following the equation geometric series. In the case of direct competition in reproduction, we can answer the narrow scope question decisively. Individual trait token is inherited because the trait token has a reproduction advantage in the population. The other trait token lose the reproduction completion to this trait token in the previous generation. Instead of explaining the natural selection in terms of how the survival of the fitness affect probability distribution of trait token in the population, my explanation explains the inherence linage of individual traits in a winner takes all survival games.

Let me illustrate my explanation further by going back to Sober’s classic analogy of a third grade class. In Nanay indirect explanation, there are limited seats in the third grade class, only students who passed the second grade can be promoted to the third grade. The twist is the mark scheme of the exam uses bell curve to determine who pass and who fail. Those at the bottom of the class that failed the second grade exam are equivalent to those individuals with traits do not survive to reproductive age. It is arguable that the indirect explanation still does not explain how each student in the third grade class acquires their third grade reading and writing ability, rather it is the third grade reading and writing standard is adjusted to meet the ability of last student who barely survive the exam cut off threshold. In my direct competition explanation, it is not a typical third grade class. It is a third grade class in a ninja assassin school. The ninja assassin school does not teach reading or writing, rather it teaches killing and self-defense. The second grade exam is not a pencil and paper test, it is literally a fight for survival. The second grade students are put inside a huge boxing ring and asked to have round robin fights using their best killing or self-defense skill. Those who remain standing at the end of the exam period got promoted to the third grade. It is irrelevant how the students acquire their killing or self-defense skill prior to the exam, because only killing or self-defense skill matter in the selection process.

In my conclusion remarks, I am drawing the significant of opposable thumbs in the direct competition of reproduction and survival. It is evident that without opposable thumbs, human cannot use tools and more important weapons. Imagine there are two tribes of pre-historical human; one tribe developed an opposable thumb while the other did not. For the first few millenniums before human invent stone tools and weapons, the opposable thumb did not give the former tribe neither survival advantage nor disadvantage. The two tribes populate the environment and multiply with roughly the same rate. Yet the balance of power is tipped once the tribe with opposable thumb developed tools and weapons. With the help of tools and weapons, the former tribe is able to genocide the later tribe when they are fighting for the control of the land. Having the opposable thumb and the ability to use weapon is a decisive winning factor in pre-historical warfare. Since the ancestors of our non-existed distant cousin without opposable thumbs are killed by our ancestors who have opposable thumbs, natural selection explains why you and I have opposable thumbs. Survival of the fitness does not only explain the survival of a particular genetic trait in relationship to the environment, it also explains the survival of a particular genetic trait in relationship to other traits. Natural selection is not a marathon that let all the traits develops on its own and then figure out which trait pass the finishing line first. Natural selection is like the Stanley cup play off, it makes different traits play head to head against each other and let the fittest traits be the winner.

References:
1 . Neander (1995) “Pruning the Tree of Life” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. Vol. 46, pp. 59-80.
2 . Sober (1995) “Natural Selection and Distributive Explanation: A Reply to Neander”, BJPS. Vol. 46, pp.384-397.
3 . Neander (1995) “Explaining Complex Adaptations: A Reply to Sober’s ‘Reply to Neander’”, BJPS. Vol. 46, pp. 583-87.
4 . Walsh (1998) “The Scope of Selection: Sober and Neander on What Natural Selection Explains” Australasian Journal of Philosophy. Vol. 76 (2) pp. 250-64.
5 . Nanay (2005) “Does Cumulative Selection Explain Adaptation?” Philosophy of Science, Vol 72, pp. 1099–1112.

新賣桔者言 – 張五常

張五常是我經濟學的啟蒙老師﹐我中學唸理科班﹐會考沒有修讀經濟科﹐本與經濟學無緣。某年在家父的書房中﹐找到張五常的舊作《賣桔者言》﹐讀畢驚為天人﹐方知很多日常事物可以用經濟學去解釋。讀大學時更一口氣買了差不多張五常所有藉作﹐他那三卷《經濟解釋》深入淺出地講解經濟學﹐可謂中文經學讀物之寶。可惜近年他的文章了無新意﹐不斷重覆地自吹自擂﹐講風雪月講他玩書法玩攝影多﹐正正經經講經濟學的少﹐於是我漸漸便對他失去興趣。

上次去印度在香港轉機時﹐剛好在機場書店看見張五常的新作《新賣桔者言》。隨便匆匆地翻看目錄﹐看見這本書全部也是經濟學的文章﹐加上既然冠上《賣桔者言》之招牌﹐便草率地決定買下來。不經深思熟慮的決定總會帶來後悔﹐機場書店賣書要付正價﹐回程時去逛旺角樓上書店﹐才發現可以便宜一大截。《新賣桔者言》開頭五分一本書﹐竟然把前作《賣桔者言》的舊文搬字過紙﹐賣桔者言變成混吉者言。

第二部談論中國改革開放﹐那些兩篇文章寫於改革初期﹐觀點現在看起來有點過時。張五常的分析對中國經濟發展太過樂觀﹐只看到改革的好處﹐卻沒有看到只改革經濟﹐不改革政治埋下的炸爆。經濟學建立在信任的基礎上﹐可是張五常似乎看不到中國誠信破產導致的龐大交易費用。

第三部講經濟學定律﹐可是分析寫得太過膚淺﹐而有些定律我認為張五常更是說錯了。張五常批評股票圖表派吹水﹐但他忽略了股市短期上落最終是人為心理因素所決定。當全世界的至基金的電腦也用圖表分析去決定買賣﹐那圖表在絕大部份時間便會成為自我實現的預言。不知道張五常自大學以後﹐還有沒有進修過博奕理論﹐我便上學期剛剛讀過 。他說博奕理論是空中樓閣沒有實際用途﹐但他大慨不知道博奕理論在制度設計中的威力。工資定律我倒認同他的理論﹐可是他講一半不講一半﹐害我讀不到完整推論意猶未盡。

第四部份從觀察日常生活中﹐發掘出經濟學的規律。Freakonomic,Undercover Economist這類書在外國很流行﹐張五常的文章與其比較實屬小兒科。從香口膠說風俗習慣可以減低交易費用﹐但他卻沒有多走一步﹐指出交易費用反過來也可以影響風俗習慣。玊石拍賣過程很好奇﹐我想知過外國的玉石拍賣是否也是同樣運作﹐還是用博奕理論去設計更有效率的交易制度。中國市場的假貨現像﹐那些分析不用讀經濟學都懂﹐他怎麼又不研究吃了會死人的假蛋假鼓油。炒黃牛票的經濟分析有可取之處﹐不過文章寫得不盡不實﹐看完了還不明白如何把黃牛票抄落﹐到底老闆可不可以繞過黃牛黨﹐取回價格分歧蝕了給黃牛黃黨的租值。

第五部份講獨裁的遊戲﹐張五常對微軟壟斷一案﹐分析完全不著邊際。重點根本不在微軟有沒在壟斷OS市場﹐而是在於有沒有不公平地用OS市場的壟斷﹐去打壓其他市場的競爭對手。張五常長年在中國居住﹐可能他寫文章要附合中國國情﹐不敢正面批評共產黨﹐甚至給共產黨塗脂抹粉﹐說獨裁比民主好﹐實在看不過眼。

第六部份講國際貿易﹐他流於未免閉門造車。日日貿易似是道聽途說﹐我懷疑有沒有經得起驗證的數據。成衣配額的故事﹐我看他是馬後炮抽油水居多﹐他的思維還是停留在貨品鬥平鬥賤的水平。第七部份講中國農村﹐張五常把農村生活浪漫化﹐他好像不知道民間疾苦。就算今天餓不死﹐那明天又如何。留在中國農村生活﹐根本對未來沒有希望。第八和九部份講土地使用和公司合約本質。我認同張五常的理論﹐但嫌文章的理論不夠詳細。他亦沒有解決土地和公司中﹐權力不平衡這個問題。書本兩章講考古講未日﹐屬張五常吹水不抹嘴之言﹐只是勉強與經濟學扯上關係。

這本將會是我買的最後一本張五常的散文﹐他現在的文章給我江郎才盡的感覺。不用錢借來翻翻沒有所謂﹐但付出真金白銀便很不值﹐倒不好買外國的經濟學流行讀物好過。不過張五常始終經濟學教授﹐他寫那硬皮書系列的經濟學課本﹐我還是會照舊捧場。

The Trouble With Multicore

I ran into a computer scientist in DAC and he is one of those doomsayer of multicore computing. He said according to Amdahl’s law, multicore will reach the diminish of return at around 4x speedup. Throwing more core at a sequential program won’t make it run any faster.

Continue reading The Trouble With Multicore