{"id":12034,"date":"2017-03-28T23:16:57","date_gmt":"2017-03-29T07:16:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/?p=12034"},"modified":"2017-03-28T23:16:57","modified_gmt":"2017-03-29T07:16:57","slug":"antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/","title":{"rendered":"Antifragile &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Antifragile.jpg\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"12035\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/antifragile\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Antifragile.jpg?fit=360%2C471&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"360,471\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;Picasa&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1343319499&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Antifragile\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Antifragile.jpg?fit=360%2C471&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Antifragile-229x300.jpg?resize=229%2C300\" alt=\"\" width=\"229\" height=\"300\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-12035\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Antifragile.jpg?resize=229%2C300&amp;ssl=1 229w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Antifragile.jpg?resize=115%2C150&amp;ssl=1 115w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Antifragile.jpg?w=360&amp;ssl=1 360w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 229px) 100vw, 229px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u6191\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300b\u9810\u6e2c\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u4e00\u8209\u6210\u540d\u7684Nassim Nicholas Taleb\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u8b80\u8005\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u5730\u628a\u4ed6\u7684\u65b0\u66f8\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300b\u6b78\u985e\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u66f8\u85c9\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u95dc\u65bc\u54f2\u5b78\u7684\u66f8\u3002Taleb\u9664\u4e86\u662f\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u7406\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4efd\u6b63\u8077\u662f\u54f2\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u5f88\u7279\u5225\u7684\u66f8\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u4f60\u53ea\u60f3\u96de\u7cbe\u901f\u6210\u5730\u4e00\u89bd\u66f8\u4e2d\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6709\u7528\u7684\u6771\u897f\uff0c\u4e0d\u59a8\u770b\u7db2\u7d61\u4e0a\u7684\u66f8\u8a55\u6216\u95b1\u8b80\u5fc3\u5f97\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7528\u770b\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u770b\u770b\u5c01\u9762\u66f8\u540d\u4e0b\u65b9\u7684\u526f\u6a19\u984c\u5c31\u5920\u4e86\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u4e00\u53e5\u8b1b\u5b8c\uff1a\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5805\u56fa\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u3002\u8106\u5f31\u8005\u4e0d\u582a\u52d5\u8569\u7684\u4e00\u64ca\uff0c\u5805\u56fa\u8005\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u5ef6\u9072\u88ab\u52d5\u8569\u64ca\u7834\u7684\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u5247\u8d8a\u4e82\u8d8a\u597d\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u4ee5\u751f\u7269\u9032\u5316\u70ba\u7c43\u672c\u7684\u6709\u6a5f\u7cfb\u7d71\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u96d6\u7136\u5168\u66f8\u91cd\u9ede\u4e00\u53e5\u8b1b\u5b8c\uff0cTaleb\u53ef\u4e0d\u662f\u9a19\u7a3f\u8cbb\uff0c\u624d\u5beb\u9019\u90e8\u4e94\u767e\u591a\u9801\u7684\u9245\u8457\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u8aaa\u4ed6\u7684\u524d\u4f5c\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300b\u548c\u300a\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc\u300b\u662f\u5916\u529f\u62db\u5f0f\uff0c\u9019\u90e8\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300b\u5247\u662f\u5167\u529f\u5fc3\u6cd5\uff0c\u628a\u4ed6\u7562\u751f\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u548c\u505a\u4eba\u54f2\u5b78\uff0c\u5c0d\u96a8\u6a5f\u5f8b\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u6574\u7406\u8a18\u9304\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5bf6\u5178\u3002\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\u9019\u4e00\u500b\u6168\u5ff5\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u4f60\u660e\u767d\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u8b1b\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u5341\u5206\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u9ede\u300c\u963f\u5abd\u4fc2\u5973\u4eba\u300d\u7684\u611f\u89ba\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u525b\u958b\u59cb\u8b80\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6642\uff0c\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\u7684\u6168\u5ff5\u986f\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u5408\u5e38\u8b58\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u9700\u8981\u82b1\u8cbb\u4e0d\u5c11\u7bc7\u5e45\uff0c\u5c64\u5c64\u6f38\u9032\u5730\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u9010\u9ede\u9010\u9ede\u53bb\u555f\u8499\u8b80\u8005\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u4f60\u660e\u767d\u5c31\u660e\u767d\uff0c\u4e0d\u660e\u767d\u5c31\u4e0d\u660e\u767d\u7684\u66f8\uff0c\u660e\u767d\u4e86\u4fbf\u4e00\u7406\u901a\u767e\u7406\u660e\u3002\u5728\u95b1\u8b80\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6703\u6709\u300c\u53ee\u300d\u4e00\u8072\u7a81\u7136\u958b\u7ac5\u7684\u524e\u90a3\u3002\u958b\u7ac5\u524d\uff0c\u4f60\u6703\u89ba\u5f97\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u662f\u7648\u8a71\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u662f\u6beb\u7121\u6839\u64da\u7684\u4e82\u8aaa\uff1b\u958b\u7ac5\u5f8c\uff0c\u4f60\u6703\u89ba\u5f97\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u662f\u7648\u8a71\uff0c\u9019\u9ebc\u6dfa\u7684\u6771\u897f\uff0c\u90a3\u9700\u8981\u5982\u6b64\u9577\u7bc7\u5927\u8ad6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u82e5\u679c\u770b\u5b8c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u5f97\u8457\uff0c\u53ea\u505c\u7559\u5728\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\u7684\u61c9\u7528\u5c64\u9762\uff08\u5916\u529f\u62db\u5f0f\uff09\uff0c\u5982\u8981\u64c1\u62b1\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u5bb3\u6015\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u614e\u9632\u300c\u8d0f\u7c92\u7cd6\uff0c\u8f38\u9593\u5ee0\u300d\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u300c\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u300d\u7684\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\uff0c\u628a\u98a8\u96aa\u8f49\u79fb\u5230\u4ed6\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u6050\u6015\u932f\u8aa4\u89e3\u8b80\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u539f\u610f\u3002\u770b\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u5f97\u8457\uff0c\u662f\u6539\u8b8a\u6211\u5c0d\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5f9e\u65b0\u8a8d\u8b58\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff08\u5176\u5be6\u53ea\u662f\u5ef6\u7e8c\u5169\u90e8\u524d\u4f5c\u7684\u4e3b\u984c\uff09\u3002\u5728\u7406\u8ad6\u77e5\u8b58\u81f3\u4e0a\u7684\u73fe\u4ee3\u793e\u6703\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u79d1\u5b78\u9084\u662f\u793e\u6703\u653f\u6cbb\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u6709\u4e00\u7a2e\u5168\u77e5\u5168\u80fd\u7684\u50b2\u6162\uff0c\u5f77\u5ffd\u80fd\u770b\u900f\u4e16\u4e8b\u56e0\u679c\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u96a8\u6a5f\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u800c\u5c0d\u65bc\u81ea\u5df2\u7121\u77e5\u7684\u7121\u77e5\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u6700\u5371\u96aa\u4e0d\u904e\u7684\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u66f8\u4e2d\u7b2c\u516d\u5377\u662f\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u5065\u5eb7\u6307\u5357\uff0c\u63a8\u795f\u50b3\u7d71\u81ea\u7136\u7642\u6cd5\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u89c0\u9ede\u4e00\u91dd\u898b\u8840\u6307\u51fa\u73fe\u4ee3\u91ab\u5b78\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u6709\u4e9b\u5167\u5bb9\u7f3a\u4e4f\u79d1\u5b78\u6839\u64da\u3002\u8a6d\u7570\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u73fe\u4ee3\u4eba\u8ff7\u4fe1\u79d1\u5b78\u6839\u64da\uff0c\u6b63\u6b63\u662f\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\u6279\u64ca\u7684\u5c0d\u50cf\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e03\u5377\u662f\u5efa\u57fa\u65bc\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\u6168\u5ff5\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u9053\u5fb7\u54f2\u5b78\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u4e0a\u7684\u300c\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u96e3\u984c\u300d\uff0c\u73fe\u4ee3\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7522\u751f\u8ca7\u5bcc\u61f8\u6b8a\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u628a\u554f\u984c\u6838\u5fc3\u6b78\u548e\u65bc\u300c\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u300d\u7684\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\u6027\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee5\u6b64\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u63d0\u51fa\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u5584\u793e\u6703\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u6a5f\u5236\u3002\u9019\u4e00\u7ae0\u7684\u54f2\u5b78\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u6b63\u597d\u70ba\u6211\u63d0\u4f9b\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u89d2\u5ea6\u53bb\u89e3\u91cb\u53f3\u7ffc\u300c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\u6bd4\u5de6\u7ffc\u300c\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u5c0d\u300d\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u7406\u64da\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u9084\u9700\u8981\u6642\u9593\u53bb\u6d88\u5316\u6574\u7406\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\u300c\u516c\u53f8\u6cd5\u4eba\u300d\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0a\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\u7684\u9019\u500b\u95dc\u9375\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u8b80\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u55ae\u65b9\u9762\u5438\u6536\u66f8\u672c\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\uff0c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u662f\u53cd\u601d\u7136\u5f8c\u628a\u601d\u60f3\u5167\u5728\u5316\uff0c\u5927\u6168\u54f2\u5b78\u66f8\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u662f\u6bd4\u8f03\u96e3\u8b80\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6191\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300b\u9810\u6e2c\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u4e00\u8209\u6210\u540d\u7684Nassim Nicholas Taleb\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u8b80\u8005\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u5730\u628a\u4ed6\u7684\u65b0\u66f8\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300b\u6b78\u985e\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u66f8\u85c9\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u95dc\u65bc\u54f2\u5b78\u7684\u66f8\u3002Taleb\u9664\u4e86\u662f\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u7406\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4efd\u6b63\u8077\u662f\u54f2\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u5f88\u7279\u5225\u7684\u66f8\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u4f60\u53ea\u60f3\u96de\u7cbe\u901f\u6210\u5730\u4e00\u89bd\u66f8\u4e2d\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6709\u7528\u7684\u6771\u897f\uff0c\u4e0d\u59a8\u770b\u7db2\u7d61\u4e0a\u7684\u66f8\u8a55\u6216\u95b1\u8b80\u5fc3\u5f97\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7528\u770b\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u770b\u770b\u5c01\u9762\u66f8\u540d\u4e0b\u65b9\u7684\u526f\u6a19\u984c\u5c31\u5920\u4e86\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u4e00\u53e5\u8b1b\u5b8c\uff1a\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5805\u56fa\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u3002\u8106\u5f31\u8005\u4e0d\u582a\u52d5\u8569\u7684\u4e00\u64ca\uff0c\u5805\u56fa\u8005\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u5ef6\u9072\u88ab\u52d5\u8569\u64ca\u7834\u7684\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u5247\u8d8a\u4e82\u8d8a\u597d\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u4ee5\u751f\u7269\u9032\u5316\u70ba\u7c43\u672c\u7684\u6709\u6a5f\u7cfb\u7d71\u3002 \u96d6\u7136\u5168\u66f8\u91cd\u9ede\u4e00\u53e5\u8b1b\u5b8c\uff0cTaleb\u53ef\u4e0d\u662f\u9a19\u7a3f\u8cbb\uff0c\u624d\u5beb\u9019\u90e8\u4e94\u767e\u591a\u9801\u7684\u9245\u8457\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u8aaa\u4ed6\u7684\u524d\u4f5c\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300b\u548c\u300a\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc\u300b\u662f\u5916\u529f\u62db\u5f0f\uff0c\u9019\u90e8\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300b\u5247\u662f\u5167\u529f\u5fc3\u6cd5\uff0c\u628a\u4ed6\u7562\u751f\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u548c\u505a\u4eba\u54f2\u5b78\uff0c\u5c0d\u96a8\u6a5f\u5f8b\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u6574\u7406\u8a18\u9304\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5bf6\u5178\u3002\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\u9019\u4e00\u500b\u6168\u5ff5\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u4f60\u660e\u767d\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u8b1b\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u5341\u5206\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u9ede\u300c\u963f\u5abd\u4fc2\u5973\u4eba\u300d\u7684\u611f\u89ba\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u525b\u958b\u59cb\u8b80\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6642\uff0c\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\u7684\u6168\u5ff5\u986f\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u5408\u5e38\u8b58\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u9700\u8981\u82b1\u8cbb\u4e0d\u5c11\u7bc7\u5e45\uff0c\u5c64\u5c64\u6f38\u9032\u5730\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u9010\u9ede\u9010\u9ede\u53bb\u555f\u8499\u8b80\u8005\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u4f60\u660e\u767d\u5c31\u660e\u767d\uff0c\u4e0d\u660e\u767d\u5c31\u4e0d\u660e\u767d\u7684\u66f8\uff0c\u660e\u767d\u4e86\u4fbf\u4e00\u7406\u901a\u767e\u7406\u660e\u3002\u5728\u95b1\u8b80\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6703\u6709\u300c\u53ee\u300d\u4e00\u8072\u7a81\u7136\u958b\u7ac5\u7684\u524e\u90a3\u3002\u958b\u7ac5\u524d\uff0c\u4f60\u6703\u89ba\u5f97\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u662f\u7648\u8a71\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u662f\u6beb\u7121\u6839\u64da\u7684\u4e82\u8aaa\uff1b\u958b\u7ac5\u5f8c\uff0c\u4f60\u6703\u89ba\u5f97\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u662f\u7648\u8a71\uff0c\u9019\u9ebc\u6dfa\u7684\u6771\u897f\uff0c\u90a3\u9700\u8981\u5982\u6b64\u9577\u7bc7\u5927\u8ad6\u3002 \u82e5\u679c\u770b\u5b8c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u5f97\u8457\uff0c\u53ea\u505c\u7559\u5728\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\u7684\u61c9\u7528\u5c64\u9762\uff08\u5916\u529f\u62db\u5f0f\uff09\uff0c\u5982\u8981\u64c1\u62b1\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u5bb3\u6015\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u614e\u9632\u300c\u8d0f\u7c92\u7cd6\uff0c\u8f38\u9593\u5ee0\u300d\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u300c\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u300d\u7684\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\uff0c\u628a\u98a8\u96aa\u8f49\u79fb\u5230\u4ed6\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u6050\u6015\u932f\u8aa4\u89e3\u8b80\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u539f\u610f\u3002\u770b\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u5f97\u8457\uff0c\u662f\u6539\u8b8a\u6211\u5c0d\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5f9e\u65b0\u8a8d\u8b58\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff08\u5176\u5be6\u53ea\u662f\u5ef6\u7e8c\u5169\u90e8\u524d\u4f5c\u7684\u4e3b\u984c\uff09\u3002\u5728\u7406\u8ad6\u77e5\u8b58\u81f3\u4e0a\u7684\u73fe\u4ee3\u793e\u6703\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u79d1\u5b78\u9084\u662f\u793e\u6703\u653f\u6cbb\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u6709\u4e00\u7a2e\u5168\u77e5\u5168\u80fd\u7684\u50b2\u6162\uff0c\u5f77\u5ffd\u80fd\u770b\u900f\u4e16\u4e8b\u56e0\u679c\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u96a8\u6a5f\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u800c\u5c0d\u65bc\u81ea\u5df2\u7121\u77e5\u7684\u7121\u77e5\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u6700\u5371\u96aa\u4e0d\u904e\u7684\u4e8b\u3002 \u66f8\u4e2d\u7b2c\u516d\u5377\u662f\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u5065\u5eb7\u6307\u5357\uff0c\u63a8\u795f\u50b3\u7d71\u81ea\u7136\u7642\u6cd5\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u89c0\u9ede\u4e00\u91dd\u898b\u8840\u6307\u51fa\u73fe\u4ee3\u91ab\u5b78\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u6709\u4e9b\u5167\u5bb9\u7f3a\u4e4f\u79d1\u5b78\u6839\u64da\u3002\u8a6d\u7570\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u73fe\u4ee3\u4eba\u8ff7\u4fe1\u79d1\u5b78\u6839\u64da\uff0c\u6b63\u6b63\u662f\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\u6279\u64ca\u7684\u5c0d\u50cf\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e03\u5377\u662f\u5efa\u57fa\u65bc\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\u6168\u5ff5\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u9053\u5fb7\u54f2\u5b78\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u4e0a\u7684\u300c\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u96e3\u984c\u300d\uff0c\u73fe\u4ee3\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7522\u751f\u8ca7\u5bcc\u61f8\u6b8a\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u628a\u554f\u984c\u6838\u5fc3\u6b78\u548e\u65bc\u300c\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u300d\u7684\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\u6027\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee5\u6b64\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u63d0\u51fa\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u5584\u793e\u6703\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u6a5f\u5236\u3002\u9019\u4e00\u7ae0\u7684\u54f2\u5b78\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u6b63\u597d\u70ba\u6211\u63d0\u4f9b\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u89d2\u5ea6\u53bb\u89e3\u91cb\u53f3\u7ffc\u300c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\u6bd4\u5de6\u7ffc\u300c\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u5c0d\u300d\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u7406\u64da\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u9084\u9700\u8981\u6642\u9593\u53bb\u6d88\u5316\u6574\u7406\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\u300c\u516c\u53f8\u6cd5\u4eba\u300d\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0a\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\u7684\u9019\u500b\u95dc\u9375\u3002 \u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u8b80\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u55ae\u65b9\u9762\u5438\u6536\u66f8\u672c\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\uff0c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u662f\u53cd\u601d\u7136\u5f8c\u628a\u601d\u60f3\u5167\u5728\u5316\uff0c\u5927\u6168\u54f2\u5b78\u66f8\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u662f\u6bd4\u8f03\u96e3\u8b80\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12035,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"lc_iscn_info":[],"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"\u4e0d\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u66f8\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u54f2\u5b78\u66f8","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8],"tags":[870,1218],"class_list":["post-12034","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-_books","tag-870","tag-1218"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Antifragile - Nassim Nicholas Taleb - \u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u6191\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300b\u9810\u6e2c\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u4e00\u8209\u6210\u540d\u7684Nassim Nicholas\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Antifragile - Nassim Nicholas Taleb - \u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u6191\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300b\u9810\u6e2c\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u4e00\u8209\u6210\u540d\u7684Nassim Nicholas\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"\u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/horace.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/horace.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-03-29T07:16:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Antifragile.jpg?fit=360%2C471&ssl=1\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"360\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"471\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"hevangel\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@horaceorg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@horaceorg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"hevangel\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/28\\\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/28\\\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"hevangel\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c\"},\"headline\":\"Antifragile &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-03-29T07:16:57+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/28\\\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":10,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/28\\\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/Antifragile.jpg?fit=360%2C471&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"\u7d93\u6fdf\",\"\u793e\u6703\"],\"articleSection\":[\"\u66f8\u8a55\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/28\\\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/28\\\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/28\\\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\\\/\",\"name\":\"Antifragile - Nassim Nicholas Taleb - \u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/28\\\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/28\\\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/Antifragile.jpg?fit=360%2C471&ssl=1\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-03-29T07:16:57+00:00\",\"description\":\"\u6191\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300b\u9810\u6e2c\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u4e00\u8209\u6210\u540d\u7684Nassim Nicholas\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/28\\\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/28\\\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/28\\\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/Antifragile.jpg?fit=360%2C471&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/Antifragile.jpg?fit=360%2C471&ssl=1\",\"width\":360,\"height\":471},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/28\\\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Antifragile &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/\",\"name\":\"\u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp\",\"description\":\"\u860b\u679c\u65e5\u5831\u4f5c\u8005 - \u9673\u99ac\uff1a\u66f8\u8a55\uff0c\u5f71\u8a55\uff0c\u52d5\u6f2b\uff0c\u65c5\u884c\uff0c\u54f2\u5b78\u7b46\u8a18\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\"},{\"@type\":[\"Person\",\"Organization\"],\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c\",\"name\":\"hevangel\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1\",\"width\":1313,\"height\":1259,\"caption\":\"hevangel\"},\"logo\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/horace.org\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/author\\\/hevangel-2\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Antifragile - Nassim Nicholas Taleb - \u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp","description":"\u6191\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300b\u9810\u6e2c\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u4e00\u8209\u6210\u540d\u7684Nassim Nicholas","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Antifragile - Nassim Nicholas Taleb - \u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp","og_description":"\u6191\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300b\u9810\u6e2c\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u4e00\u8209\u6210\u540d\u7684Nassim Nicholas","og_url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/","og_site_name":"\u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/horace.org","article_author":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/horace.org","article_published_time":"2017-03-29T07:16:57+00:00","og_image":[{"width":360,"height":471,"url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Antifragile.jpg?fit=360%2C471&ssl=1","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"hevangel","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@horaceorg","twitter_site":"@horaceorg","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"hevangel"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/"},"author":{"name":"hevangel","@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c"},"headline":"Antifragile &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb","datePublished":"2017-03-29T07:16:57+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/"},"wordCount":10,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Antifragile.jpg?fit=360%2C471&ssl=1","keywords":["\u7d93\u6fdf","\u793e\u6703"],"articleSection":["\u66f8\u8a55"],"inLanguage":"en-CA","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/","url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/","name":"Antifragile - Nassim Nicholas Taleb - \u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Antifragile.jpg?fit=360%2C471&ssl=1","datePublished":"2017-03-29T07:16:57+00:00","description":"\u6191\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300b\u9810\u6e2c\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u4e00\u8209\u6210\u540d\u7684Nassim Nicholas","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-CA","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-CA","@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Antifragile.jpg?fit=360%2C471&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Antifragile.jpg?fit=360%2C471&ssl=1","width":360,"height":471},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Antifragile &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/","name":"\u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp","description":"\u860b\u679c\u65e5\u5831\u4f5c\u8005 - \u9673\u99ac\uff1a\u66f8\u8a55\uff0c\u5f71\u8a55\uff0c\u52d5\u6f2b\uff0c\u65c5\u884c\uff0c\u54f2\u5b78\u7b46\u8a18","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-CA"},{"@type":["Person","Organization"],"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c","name":"hevangel","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-CA","@id":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1","width":1313,"height":1259,"caption":"hevangel"},"logo":{"@id":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/www.horace.org","https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/horace.org"],"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/author\/hevangel-2\/"}]}},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Antifragile.jpg?fit=360%2C471&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pwn21-386","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":3893,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2010\/01\/19\/fooled-by-randomness-nassim-nicholas-talech\/","url_meta":{"origin":12034,"position":0},"title":"Fooled by Randomness &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Talech","author":"hevangel","date":"January 19, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"\u53bb\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u6295\u8cc7\u9280\u884c\u50b7\u4ea1\u6158\u91cd\ufe50\u53ef\u662f\u537b\u6367\u7d05\u4e86\u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u7406\u8ad6\u300d\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u548c\u5176\u4f5c\u8005Nassim Nicholas Talech\u3002\u6b64\u541b\u6295\u8cc7\u773c\u5149\u7368\u5230\u751a\u6709\u9060\u898b\ufe50\u5728\u4e00\u773e\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u7406\u9084\u6c89\u9189\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u6cab\u7684\u6642\u5019\ufe50\u4ed6\u5df2\u7d93\u9810\u8a00\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u7121\u53ef\u907f\u514d\ufe50\u4f86\u81e8\u53ea\u662f\u9072\u65e9\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u4ee4\u4e0d\u5c11\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4e00\u8216\u6e05\u888b\ufe50\u4ed6\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u537b\u9006\u5e02\u72c2\u8cfa\u4e00\u767e\u4e8c\u5341\u5104\u3002Talech\u4e26\u975e\u666e\u901a\u7684\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u7406\ufe50\u9664\u4e86\u7ba1\u7406\u57fa\u91d1\u5916\ufe50\u4ed6\u9084\u5728\u5927\u5b78\u7576\u54f2\u5b78\u6559\u6388\ufe50\u7814\u7a76\u96a8\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u8ad6\u3002 \u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u7406\u8ad6\u300d\u56e0\u70ba\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u88ab\u53d7\u8ffd\u6367\ufe50\u8ca1\u7d93\u754c\u4eba\u624b\u4e00\u672c\u5728\u95b1\u8b80\u60e1\u88dc\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u7406\u8ad6\u300d\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u5728\u91cd\u8986\u4ed6\u820a\u4f5cFooled by Randomness\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u65e9\u5728\u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u7406\u8ad6\u300d\u767b\u4e0a\u66a2\u92b7\u66f8\u6392\u884c\u699c\u524d\ufe50\u5df2\u88ab\u8b7d\u70ba\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u5947\u66f8\ufe50\u81ea\u7d44\u6210cult\u6709\u4e00\u7fa4\u5fe0\u5be6\u8ffd\u96a8\u8005\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e2d\u6587\u8b6f\u4f5c\u300c\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc\u300d\ufe50\u4e0d\u904e\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e2d\u6587\u540d\u7a31\u8b6f\u5f88\u5dee\ufe50\u5b8c\u5168\u504f\u96e2\u4e86\u8a72\u66f8\u7684\u539f\u610f\ufe50\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6839\u672c\u548c\u81f4\u5bcc\u7121\u95dc\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u4e3b\u65e8\u5f88\u7c21\u55ae\ufe50\u4e00\u53e5\u8aaa\u8a71\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u5b8c\ufe50\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u4ea6\u6311\u6230\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u4eba\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\u3002\u4eba\u5011\u4ee5\u70ba\u6210\u529f\u5168\u56e0\u4e00\u5df1\u52aa\u529b\u6216\u773c\u5149\ufe50\u770b\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u81ea\u5df1\u547d\u904b\u7684\u80cc\u5f8c\ufe50\u5f80\u5f80\u53d7\u5230\u96a8\u6a5f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u64fa\u4f48\u7684\u4e8b\u5be6\u3002 \u9019\u672c\u66f8\u56b4\u683c\u4f86\u8aaa\u53ef\u4ee5\u6b78\u985e\u70ba\u54f2\u5b78\u66f8\u85c9\ufe50\u4f5c\u8005\u901a\u904e\u4ed6\u5011\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u6253\u6efe\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\ufe50\u8f14\u4ee5\u4eba\u985e\u5b78\u548c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\ufe50\u8aaa\u51fa\u4eba\u985e\u8166\u888b\u7e3d\u662f\u4e0d\u7406\u89e3\u96a8\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u4e8b\u5be6\u3002\u4eba\u985e\u7e3d\u662f\u4ee5\u70ba\u56e0\u679c\u6709\u65e2\u5b9a\u95dc\u4fc2\ufe50\u751a\u81f3\u81ea\u5df1\u628a\u865b\u7dda\u9023\u7d50\ufe50\u628a\u6c92\u6709\u95dc\u4fc2\u7684\u6771\u897f\u6191\u7a7a\u60f3\u50cf\u51fa\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5206\u70ba\u4e09\u500b\u90e8\u4efd\ufe50\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u90e8\u5148\u8aaa\u670d\u8b80\u8005\u96a8\u6a5f\u7387\u7121\u8655\u4e0d\u5728\u3002\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u5f88\u591a\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u7406\u770b\u4f3c\u5f88\u6210\u529f\ufe50\u4ed6\u5011\u4ee5\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u6295\u8cc7\u773c\u5149\u904e\u4eba\ufe50\u5176\u5be6\u4ed6\u5011\u53ea\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u904b\u6c23\u597d\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0d\u660e\u7684\u96a8\u6a5f\u7387\ufe50\u7121\u8996\u90a3\u500b\u5f88\u7d30\u5fae\ufe50\u4f46\u8db3\u4ee5\u4ee4\u4ed6\u5011\u50be\u5bb6\u8569\u7522\u7684\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u5728\u751f\u5b58\u8005\u504f\u898b\u4e0b(survivor bias)\ufe50\u4ed6\u5011\u770b\u4f3c\u5e74\u5e74\u8cfa\u9322\ufe50\u4e0d\u904e\u4ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e00\u8216\u8f38\u6e05\u5149\u3002\u7528\u5ee3\u6771\u8a71\u5f65\u8a9e\u8aaa\ufe50\u4ed6\u5011\u5728\u73a9\u300c\u8d0f\u7c92\u7cd6\ufe50\u8f38\u9593\u5ee0\u300d\u7684\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u904a\u6232\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u4efd\u4f5c\u8005\u5f9e\u8a8d\u77e5\u8ad6\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\ufe50\u53bb\u89e3\u91cb\u96a8\u6a5f\u7387\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\ufe50\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u4eba\u4e5f\u638c\u63e1\u4e0d\u5230\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5f15\u7528\u54f2\u5b78\u5bb6Popper\u548cHume\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\ufe50\u63a8\u7ffb\u6240\u6709\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u610f\u7fa9\ufe50\u90a3\u4e9b\u5168\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u5728\u7bc9\u6c99\u5b50\u4e0a\u7684\u73a9\u610f\ufe50\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u5617\u8a66\u89e3\u91cb\u4eba\u985e\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7e3d\u662f\u53d7\u96a8\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u8ff7\u60d1\ufe50\u975e\u8981\u627e\u51fa\u67d0\u7a2e\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u624d\u5fc3\u5b89\u7406\u5f97\u3002\u4ee5\u524d\u6211\u7e3d\u662f\u60f3\u4e0d\u901a\ufe50\u90a3\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u6bcf\u5929\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u843d\u7684\u8ca1\u7d93\u5206\u6790\u54e1\ufe50\u5230\u5e95\u5982\u4f55\u77e5\u9053\u67d0\u4ef6\u65b0\u805e\u6216\u516c\u4f48\u6578\u64da\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u843d\u5e7e\u5341\u9ede\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u770b\u5b8c\u6b64\u66f8\u5f8c\ufe50\u6211\u66f4\u52a0\u80af\u5b9a\u90a3\u4e9b\u8ca1\u7d93\u5206\u6790\u54e1\u53ea\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u96a8\u53e3\u4e82\u8aaa\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u6bcf\u5929\u5e7e\u500b\u767e\u4efd\u9ede\u7684\u4e0a\u843d\ufe50\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u96dc\u97f3\ufe50\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5e02\u5834\u8cc7\u8a0a\ufe50\u4ea6\u8207\u65b0\u805e\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u55ae\u5929\u4e0a\u843d\u7684\u6578\u64da\u4e0d\u80fd\u544a\u8a34\u6211\u5011\u4ec0\u9ebc\ufe50\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u8981\u5206\u6790\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u5f88\u4eba\u8aa4\u4ee5\u70ba\u80fd\u5920\u9810\u6e2c\u7b49\u540c\u80fd\u5920\u63a7\u5236\ufe50\u53ef\u662f\u9810\u6e2c\u6c92\u6709\u767e\u4efd\u767e\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u3002\u82e5\u53ea\u6309\u7167\u9810\u6e2c\u53bb\u8a08\u5283\ufe50\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u6642\ufe50\u4fbf\u6703\u6210\u70ba\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u5927\u707d\u96e3\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e09\u90e8\u662f\u96a8\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u54f2\u7406\ufe50\u4f5c\u8005\u7e3d\u7d50\u4ed6\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u667a\u6167\ufe50\u8ac7\u8ad6\u6211\u5011\u61c9\u8a72\u5982\u4f55\u9762\u5c0d\u9019\u500b\u5145\u6eff\u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u975e\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u6c7a\u5b9a\ufe50\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u6c7a\u5b9a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\u3002\u6210\u529f\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u9760\u904b\u6c23\ufe50\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u904b\u6c23\u4f55\u6642\u6703\u4f86\ufe50\u82e5\u6c92\u6709\u5145\u4efd\u7684\u6e96\u5099\ufe50\u4fbf\u4e0d\u80fd\u6355\u6349\u904b\u6c23\u4f86\u81e8\u7684\u4e00\u523b\u3002\u660e\u767d\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u4e26\u975e\u5fc5\u7136\u5f8c\ufe50\u6211\u5011\u8981\u5b78\u61c2\u62bd\u8c61\u601d\u8003\u53bb\u4f5c\u98a8\u96aa\u7ba1\u7406\ufe50\u8981\u4fdd\u969c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u707d\u96e3\u767c\u751f\u6642\u7684\u9003\u751f\u9580\u3002\u7576\u807d\u5230\u5225\u4eba\u8aaa\ufe50\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u5728\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u5f9e\u6c92\u767c\u751f\u904e\ufe50\u4fbf\u8981\u5c0f\u5fc3\u4e86\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u6240\u6709\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u707d\u96e3\u5728\u767c\u751f\u4e4b\u524d\ufe50\u4e5f\u662f\u5728\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u5f9e\u6c92\u767c\u751f\u904e\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u767c\u751f\u7684\u8a71\ufe50\u4fbf\u4e00\u5b9a\u9072\u65e9\u6703\u767c\u751f\ufe50\u9084\u672a\u767c\u751f\u904e\u53ea\u662f\u6642\u9593\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8981\u5b78\u7fd2\u628a\u96a8\u6a5f\u7387\u61c9\u7528\u5728\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\ufe50\u4e0d\u8981\u51e1\u4e8b\u4e5f\u4ee5\u70ba\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6c42\u6700\u5927\u5316\ufe50\u96a8\u6a5f\u7387\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u6eff\u8db3\u65e2\u6210\u4e8b\u5be6\u7684\u7d50\u679c\ufe50\u751f\u6d3b\u8981\u7559\u6709\u7121\u6cd5\u9810\u77e5\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u624d\u6703\u5feb\u6a02\u3002 \u53ef\u80fd\u6211\u7576\u5e74\u8b80\u78a9\u58eb\u6642\ufe50\u7814\u7a76\u8ab2\u984c\u8207\u96a8\u6a5f\u7387\u6709\u95dc\ufe50\u66fe\u75db\u4e0b\u82e6\u529f\u5b78\u7fd2\u96a8\u6a5f\u7387\ufe50\u96a8\u6a5f\u7387\u65e9\u5df1\u878d\u5165\u6211\u7684\u601d\u7dad\u6a21\u5f0f\ufe50\u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u5f88\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u96a8\u6a5f\u7387\u8a8d\u8b58\u4e0d\u6df1\u7684\u8b80\u8005\ufe50\u9019\u66f8\u4e0d\u505c\u8861\u64ca\u8b80\u8005\u7684\u56fa\u6709\u601d\u7dad\ufe50\u6311\u6230\u548c\u8986\u985b\u8b80\u8005\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\u3002\u82e5\u53ea\u770b\u4ecb\u7c21\u6216\u64ae\u8981\ufe50\u9019\u66f8\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u807d\u8d77\u4f86\u5f88\u7384,\u8b80\u8005\u8981\u81ea\u5df1\u4ed4\u7d30\u8b80\u95b1\u5480\u56bc\ufe50\u624d\u80fd\u9818\u609f\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u9053\u7406\u3002","rel":"","context":"In &quot;\u66f8\u8a55&quot;","block_context":{"text":"\u66f8\u8a55","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/9780141031484.jpg?fit=429%2C650&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":5486,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2011\/08\/29\/programming-linguistics-david-gelernter-and-suresh-jagannathan\/","url_meta":{"origin":12034,"position":1},"title":"Programming Linguistics &#8211; David Gelernter and Suresh Jagannathan","author":"hevangel","date":"August 29, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"\u65e9\u524d\u56e0\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e0a\u7684\u9700\u8981\uff0c\u8981\u8a2d\u8a08\u4e00\u500b\u65b0\u7684\u7a0b\u5f0f\u8a9e\u8a00\uff0c\u5728\u7db2\u4e0a\u627e\u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599\u6642\uff0c\u9047\u4e0a\u4e86\u9019\u672c\u65e9\u5df2\u7d55\u7248\u7684\u5947\u66f8\u3002\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u6bcf\u7bc7\u6709\u95dc\u7a0b\u5f0f\u8a9e\u8a00\u8a2d\u8a08\u7684\u8ad6\u6587\uff0c\u5fc5\u5b9a\u5f15\u7528\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u3002\u9019\u5f15\u767c\u6211\u7684\u597d\u5947\u5fc3\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u6211\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u5716\u66f8\u9928\u4e2d\uff0c\u627e\u4f86\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u501f\u4f86\u4e00\u8b80\u3002\u4e0d\u770b\u7336\u81ea\u53ef\u770b\u7f77\u65b9\u77e5\u81ea\u5df2\u4e95\u86d9\u89c0\u5929\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u81ea\u4e2d\u5b78\u4ee5\u4f86\u5beb\u4e86\u7a0b\u5f0f\u8d85\u904e\u4e8c\u5341\u591a\u5e74\uff0c\u537b\u5f9e\u4f86\u6c92\u6709\u601d\u8003\u904e\u4f55\u8b02\u7a0b\u5f0f\u9019\u500b\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u4e00\u76f4\u9084\u4ee5\u70ba\u81ea\u5df2\u5beb\u7a0b\u5f0f\u529f\u592b\u4e0d\u932f\uff0c\u539f\u4f86\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u5b78\u5230\u5e7e\u500b\u62db\u5f0f\u5957\u62f3\u7684\u5916\u529f\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u8aaa\u7684\u537b\u662f\u5beb\u7a0b\u5f0f\u7684\u6613\u7b4b\u7d93\u5fc3\u6cd5\u3002\u8b80\u904e\u9019\u672c\u66f8\uff0c\u9762\u5c0d\u4efb\u4f55\u7a0b\u5f0f\u8a9e\u8a00\uff0c\u4e5f\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e00\u7406\u901a\u767e\u7406\u660e\u3002 \u4e00\u822c\u6559\u5beb\u7a0b\u5f0f\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5f9e\u7a0b\u5f0f\u7684\u6587\u6cd5\u548c\u61c9\u7528\u4f8b\u5b50\u4f5c\u6559\u6750\uff0c\u5b78\u751f\u8ddf\u8457\u7df4\u7fd2\u984c\u53bb\u5b78\uff0c\u6162\u6162\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u5beb\u51fa\u50cf\u6a23\u7684\u7a0b\u5f0f\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u59cb\u7d42\u6709\u9ede\u5152\u50cf\u9e1a\u9d61\u5b78\u820c\uff0c\u6c92\u932f\u80fd\u5920\u5beb\u7a0b\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f46\u537b\u4e0d\u660e\u767d\u7a0b\u5f0f\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u3002\u4f46\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6c92\u6709\u6559\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u7a2e\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u7a0b\u5f0f\u8a9e\u8a00\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5f9e\u8a9e\u8a00\u5b78\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u53bb\u5206\u6790\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7a0b\u5f0f\u8a9e\u8a00\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u65b0\u7684\u6587\u6cd5\u5e36\u4f86\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7684\u8f49\u8b8a\uff0c\u800c\u540c\u6642\u4ea6\u6307\u51fa\u4e0d\u8ad6\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8f49\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e5f\u90fd\u662f\u842c\u8b8a\u4e0d\u96e2\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u89c0\u5ff5\u3002 \u66f8\u672c\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u4fbf\u6f84\u6e05\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u7a0b\u5f0f\uff0c\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4e0d\u662f\u8edf\u4ef6\u6216\u786c\u4ef6\u7684\u5206\u5225\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u96fb\u8166\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u4e5f\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u7a0b\u5f0f\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u62bd\u50cf\u7684\u6a5f\u5668\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u77e5\u8a0a\u7684\u67d0\u4e00\u7a2e\u72c0\u614b\u3002\u7a0b\u5f0f\u8a9e\u8a00\u53ea\u662f\u4ee3\u8868\u7a0b\u5f0f\u7684\u7b26\u865f\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u7a0b\u5f0f\u8a9e\u8a00\u5728\u62bd\u50cf\u7684\u5c64\u9762\u4e5f\u662f\u5171\u901a\u548c\u7b49\u540c\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u8a9e\u8a00\u8a2d\u8a08\u7684\u91cd\u9ede\u53d6\u5411\uff0c\u6709\u610f\u7121\u610f\u5de6\u53f3\u4e86\u7a0b\u5f0f\u7de8\u5beb\u54e1\u7684\u601d\u8003\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u6574\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u9748\u9b42\u4fbf\u662f\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7a0b\u5f0f\u6a5f\u5668\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u4e0d\u8ad6\u4efb\u4f55\u7a0b\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6642\u9593\uff08\u51fd\u6578\uff09\u548c\u7a7a\u9593\uff08\u8a18\u61b6\uff09\u53bb\u8868\u9054\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u5169\u8005\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e92\u76f8\u8f49\u63db\u3002\u975c\u6b62\u7684\u7a0b\u5f0f\u6e90\u78bc\u548c\u904b\u884c\u4e2d\u7684\u7a0b\u5f0f\uff0c\u5728\u62bd\u50cf\u5c64\u9762\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u6a23\u6771\u897f\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u6642\u9593\u548c\u7a7a\u9593\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u6539\u8b8a\u4e86\u3002 \u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u6240\u6709\u7ae0\u7bc0\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u56de\u9867\u7a0b\u5f0f\u8a9e\u8a00\u7684\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u628a\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u7684\u8a9e\u8a00\uff0c\u7528\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7a0b\u5f0f\u6a5f\u5668\u53bb\u5206\u6790\u4f5c\u6bd4\u8f03\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u7a0b\u5f0f\u8a9e\u8a00\uff0c\u96a8\u4e86\u505a\u5b78\u8853\u7814\u7a76\u5916\uff0c\u73fe\u4eca\u5df2\u6c92\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4eba\u7528\u3002\u53cd\u89c0\u73fe\u5728\u6700\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u5e7e\u7a2e\u8a9e\u8a00\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u7368\u5275\u6027\u53ef\u8a00\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u5728\u8d70\u524d\u4eba\u958b\u767c\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u8def\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5beb\u65bc\u4e00\u4e5d\u4e5d\u96f6\u5e74\uff0c\u8d85\u904e\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u904e\u53bb\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u7a0b\u5f0f\u8a9e\u8a00\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u537b\u505c\u6eef\u4e0d\u524d\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u4e0d\u65b7\u5efa\u7acb\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7a0b\u5f0f\u5eab\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u5728\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u7a0b\u5f0f\u8a9e\u8a00\u7684\u601d\u8003\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a\uff0c\u8207\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u6bd4\u8f03\u6c92\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u7a81\u7834\u3002 \u59cb\u7d42\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u5927\u90e8\u982d\u7684\u5b78\u8853\u66f8\uff0c\u6211\u5f88\u96e3\u5728\u6b64\u4ee5\u6709\u9650\u7684\u6587\u5b57\uff0c\u7528\u4e09\u8a00\u5169\u8a9e\u628a\u66f8\u4e2d\u6168\u5ff5\u8868\u9054\u6e05\u695a\u3002\u6211\u7279\u5225\u60f3\u8aaa\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7576\u6211\u8b80\u5230\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7a0b\u5f0f\u6a5f\u5668\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u6211\u611f\u5230\u53ee\u4e00\u8072\u958b\u7ac5\u7684\u611f\u89ba\uff0c\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u5beb\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4e0d\u660e\u6240\u4ee5\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u5c31\u5728\u9019\u4e00\u523b\u8c41\u7136\u9818\u609f\u4e86\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u5beb\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4e5f\u6709\u79aa\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u9019\u7121\u7570\u4fbf\u662f\u9813\u609f\u7684\u5883\u754c\u3002\u8b80\u96fb\u8166\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u9760\u5beb\u7a0b\u5f0f\u7dad\u751f\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u6703\u6539\u8b8a\u4f60\u60f3\u6cd5\u7684\u66f8\u3002\u9019\u66f8\u672c\u5b78\u6821\u4e0d\u6703\u6559\u4ea6\u7121\u6cd5\u6559\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u8981\u5beb\u7a0b\u5f0f\u591a\u5e74\uff0c\u5fc3\u4e2d\u7522\u751f\u7121\u6578\u554f\u865f\uff0c\u624d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u61c2\u7a0b\u5f0f\u7684\u7384\u5999\u3002","rel":"","context":"In &quot;\u66f8\u8a55&quot;","block_context":{"text":"\u66f8\u8a55","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/eaf2f205480053d593868705841434d414f4541.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3399,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2009\/09\/16\/%e8%ab%96%e7%9b%a1%e6%98%8e%e5%85%89%e7%a4%be-%e5%bc%b5%e5%9c%8b%e6%a3%9f\/","url_meta":{"origin":12034,"position":2},"title":"\u8ad6\u76e1\u660e\u5149\u793e &#8211; \u5f35\u570b\u68df","author":"hevangel","date":"September 16, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"\u65e9\u5728\u4e2d\u5927\u5b78\u751f\u5831\u4e82\u502b\u554f\u5377\ufe50\u53cd\u540c\u6027\u6200\u6b67\u8996\u6cd5\ufe50\u6deb\u5be9\u689d\u4fee\u5b9a\u6848\u4ee5\u524d\ufe50\u6211\u5df1\u5341\u5206\u7559\u610f\u660e\u5149\u793e\u7684\u52d5\u5411\u3002\u7562\u7adf\u5728\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u7db2\u4e0a\u8ad6\u58c7\u65e5\u5b50\u4e0d\u6dfa\ufe50\u770b\u8457\u660e\u5149\u793e\u7d50\u96c6\u6559\u5167\u4fdd\u5b88\u52e2\u529b\ufe50\u5f9e\u6436\u4f54\u6559\u5167\u7684\u8a00\u8ad6\u7a7a\u9593\ufe50\u5230\u6f38\u6f38\u6d3b\u8e8d\u65bc\u4e3b\u6d41\u50b3\u5a92\ufe50\u5f9e\u53bb\u4fe1\u5f71\u8996\u8655\u6295\u8a34\u96fb\u8996\u7bc0\u76ee\u4e0d\u96c5\ufe50\u5230\u56b4\u5982\u81ea\u5c01\u70ba\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u4ee3\u8a00\u4eba\ufe50\u8981\u6253\u4e00\u5834\u793e\u6703\u610f\u8b58\u5f62\u614b\u7684\u9053\u5fb7\u8056\u6230\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u660e\u5149\u793e\u537b\u6dea\u70ba\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u7684\u8ca0\u8cc7\u7522\ufe50\u5176\u504f\u6fc0\u8a00\u8ad6\u7834\u58de\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u5fc3\u4e2d\u7684\u5370\u8c61\ufe50\u8b93\u5916\u9593\u4ee5\u70ba\u57fa\u7763\u5f92\u7686\u5c6c\u53cd\u667a\u3002\u5728\u6559\u5167\u7406\u6027\u958b\u660e\u7684\u8072\u97f3\u5728\u6df9\u6c92\u4e4b\u969b\ufe50\u5f35\u570b\u68df\u5f1f\u5144\u633a\u8eab\u800c\u51fa\u5beb\u300a\u8ad6\u76e1\u660e\u5149\u793e\u300b\u4e00\u66f8\ufe50\u7fa9\u6b63\u56b4\u8a5e\u5730\u6307\u6b63\u660e\u5149\u793e\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\ufe50\u5e0c\u671b\u4ed6\u5011\u80fd\u5920\u8ff7\u9014\u77e5\u8fd4\ufe50\u4e0d\u518d\u6557\u58de\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u7684\u540d\u8072\u3002 \u6211\u8a8d\u8b58\u5f35\u570b\u68df\u4e5f\u6709\u597d\u4e00\u6bb5\u65e5\u5b50\ufe50\u4ed6\u5275\u7acb\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u4eba\u6587\u5b78\u6703\ufe50\u8b93\u4e0d\u7518\u6d17\u8166\u559c\u6b61\u601d\u8003\u7684\u57fa\u7763\u5f92\ufe50\u5728\u65e5\u6f38\u8b8a\u6210\u4e00\u8a00\u5802\u7684\u6559\u6703\u5167\ufe50\u9084\u6709\u4e00\u7247\u5021\u6240\u6b32\u8a00\u4e92\u76f8\u4ea4\u6d41\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u6240\u88cf\u8588\u805a\u5f88\u591a\u8b80\u54f2\u5b78\u7684\u6559\u53cb\ufe50\u5927\u5bb6\u8a0e\u8ad6\u795e\u5b78\ufe50\u6559\u6703\u548c\u793e\u6703\u7684\u554f\u984c\u523a\u6fc0\u601d\u8003\ufe50\u9084\u6709\u7db2\u4e0a\u8b80\u66f8\u6703\u4e92\u76f8\u5171\u52c9\u95b1\u8b80\u7d93\u5178\u9245\u8457\u3002\u5f35\u570b\u68df\u96d6\u7136\u8eab\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u653b\u8b80\u54f2\u5b78\u535a\u58eb\ufe50\u4ed6\u9084\u5fc3\u7e6b\u9999\u6e2f\u6559\u6703\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u52d5\u5411\u3002\u770b\u898b\u9999\u6e2f\u6559\u6703\u88ab\u53cd\u667a\u4eba\u4ed5\u58df\u7e7c\ufe50\u4e0d\u7981\u63d0\u8d77\u7b46\u687f\u5beb\u6587\u7ae0\ufe50\u5e0c\u671b\u559a\u9192\u6559\u5167\u7406\u667a\u7684\u8072\u97f3\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u5f35\u570b\u68df\u51fa\u65bc\u5584\u610f\u7684\u8aeb\u8a00\u4e26\u672a\u88ab\u63a5\u53d7\ufe50\u53cd\u800c\u660e\u5149\u793e\u8a8d\u70ba\u5fe0\u8a00\u9006\u8033\u4e0d\u9858\u807d\ufe50\u9084\u4ee5\u975e\u53cb\u5373\u6575\u7684\u601d\u7dad\u628a\u5f35\u570b\u68df\u6b78\u5165\u6975\u7aef\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e00\u4f19\ufe50\u53ea\u5dee\u5728\u672a\u628a\u5047\u57fa\u7763\u5f92\u7684\u6a19\u7c3d\u8aaa\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u9019\u672c\u66f8\u8a18\u9304\u904e\u53bb\u6578\u5e74\ufe50\u660e\u5149\u793e\u5728\u793e\u6703\u9053\u5fb7\u8b70\u984c\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\u3002\u660e\u5149\u7b46\u5728\u7db2\u4e0a\u548c\u6559\u5167\u5916\u50b3\u5a92\ufe50\u5c0d\u7570\u898b\u8005\u767c\u52d5\u7b46\u6230\u548c\u7f75\u6230\ufe50\u9084\u62ab\u8d77\u7406\u6027\u5047\u9762\u5177\u53bb\u6b3a\u9a19\u7121\u77e5\u6559\u773e\ufe50\u904b\u7528\u6559\u5167\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u70ba\u6559\u5f92\u6d17\u8166\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e26\u975e\u8a0e\u8ad6\u9053\u5fb7\u984c\u8b70\u4e0a\u7684\u5c0d\u932f\ufe50\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u4ee5\u6211\u8a8d\u8b58\u7684\u5f35\u570b\u68df\u4e26\u975e\u81ea\u7531\u6d3e\ufe50\u4ed6\u5c0d\u9019\u4e9b\u8b70\u984c\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u4e5f\u9817\u4fdd\u5b88\u3002\u4ed6\u6191\u8457\u77e5\u8b58\u4efd\u5b50\u7684\u826f\u5fc3\ufe50\u770b\u4e0d\u904e\u660e\u5149\u793e\u7684\u53cd\u667a\u8a00\u8ad6\ufe50\u4e0d\u6015\u958b\u7f6a\u6559\u5167\u6b0a\u8cb4\u81ea\u7d55\u7c73\u8def\ufe50\u4e5f\u8981\u7ad9\u51fa\u70ba\u771f\u7406\u8aaa\u8a71\ufe50\u904b\u7528\u56b4\u7dca\u7684\u54f2\u5b78\u601d\u7dad\ufe50\u5256\u6790\u660e\u5149\u793e\u8a00\u8ad6\u7684\u7a2e\u7a2e\u8b2c\u8aa4\ufe50\u5e0c\u904b\u80fd\u85c9\u6b64\u66f8\u4ee5\u6b63\u8996\u807d\u3002 \u82e5\u679c\u4f60\u4e0d\u662f\u6559\u5f92\u4e26\u6df1\u6df1\u75db\u6068\u660e\u5149\u793e\u7684\u6240\u4f5c\u6240\u70ba\ufe50\u770b\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5fc5\u5b9a\u5927\u547c\u904e\u766e\ufe50\u5c31\u50cf\u770b\u674e\u5929\u547d\u523a\u7834\u6881\u4e00\u6ce1\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u770b\u7f77\u6b64\u66f8\u5f8c\ufe50\u5e0c\u671b\u4f60\u5011\u80fd\u5c0d\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u6709\u6240\u6539\u89c0\ufe50\u4e00\u8981\u4e00\u7af9\u7bd9\u6253\u4e00\u8239\u4eba\ufe50\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u4e0d\u662f\u5fc5\u7136\u5730\u53cd\u667a\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u4f60\u662f\u6559\u5f92\u4f46\u4e0d\u8a8d\u540c\u660e\u5149\u793e\ufe50\u53c8\u602f\u65bc\u6559\u5167\u58d3\u529b\u82e6\u7121\u767c\u8072\u6a5f\u6703\ufe50\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u80fd\u5920\u8b93\u4f60\u91cd\u71c3\u5e0c\u671b\ufe50\u8b93\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u5b64\u8ecd\u4f5c\u6230\ufe50\u6559\u5167\u4e5f\u6709\u77e5\u97f3\u4eba\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u4f60\u662f\u6559\u5f92\u4e26\u50be\u5411\u652f\u6301\u660e\u5149\u793e\ufe50\u5e0c\u671b\u4f60\u80fd\u5920\u597d\u597d\u7d30\u95b1\u8b80\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u884c\u6587\u5e73\u5be6\u8fd1\u4e4e\u5b78\u8853\u8ad6\u6587\ufe50\u6709\u5225\u660e\u5149\u793e\u8a34\u8af8\u60c5\u7dd2\u8fd1\u4e4e\u6311\u64a5\u5f0f\u8a00\u8a9e\ufe50\u7406\u61c9\u4e0d\u6703\u5247\u5f15\u767c\u53cd\u5c04\u689d\u4ef6\u5f0f\u7684\u53cd\u5c0d\ufe50\u53ef\u4ee5\u53cd\u7701\u601d\u8003\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u548c\u53d6\u5411\ufe50\u518d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7518\u5fc3\u7e7c\u7e8c\u660e\u5149\u793e\u64cd\u63a7\u3002\u82e5\u4e0d\u80af\u4f60\u662f\u660e\u5149\u793e\u7684\u6b7b\u5fe0\u652f\u6301\u8005\ufe50\u5c31\u66f4\u52a0\u8981\u8cb7\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e86\ufe50\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u662f\u5e02\u9762\u4e0a\u552f\u4e0a\u6562\u5c0d\u660e\u5149\u793e\u8aaa\u4e0d\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\ufe50\u600e\u80fd\u4e0d\u8cb7\u56de\u4f86\u711a\u4e4b\u800c\u5f8c\u5feb\u5462\ufe56 \u6211\u5c0d\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u6295\u8a34\ufe50\u662f\u90a3\u500b\u5225\u51fa\u5fc3\u88c1\u7684\u5c01\u9762\u8a2d\u8a08\u3002\u5c01\u9762\u6bd4\u5167\u9801\u77ed\u7d04\u4e00\u540b\ufe50\u66f8\u9802\u9732\u51fa\u6c92\u6709\u66f8\u9762\u4fdd\u8b77\u7684\u5167\u9801\u3002\u6211\u6536\u5230\u66f8\u6642\u9084\u4ee5\u70ba\u91d8\u88dd\u932f\u8aa4\ufe50\u5411\u5f35\u570b\u68df\u67e5\u5f8c\u624d\u77e5\u662f\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u7684\u8a2d\u8a08\ufe50\u7a81\u986f\u51fa\u9019\u66f8\u5167\u5bb9\u662f\u6559\u5167\u7684\u89c0\u5bdf\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u7d50\u679c\u56e0\u70ba\u66f8\u9802\u6c92\u6709\u66f8\u9762\u7684\u7834\u7d19\u4fdd\u8b77\ufe50\u7d50\u679c\u982d\u5e7e\u66f8\u9801\u66f8\u9802\u7d66\u5f04\u5f97\u53c8\u76ba\u53c8\u6b98\u3002\u5e0c\u671b\u518d\u7248\u6642\u80fd\u5920\u5411\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u53cd\u6620\u554f\u984c\ufe50\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u66f8\u9762\u4fbf\u5df2\u7d93\u5f88\u597d\u4e86\ufe50\u4e0d\u9700\u5f04\u4e9b\u4e0d\u5be6\u7528\u7684\u82b1\u6b3e\u3002 \u770b\u7562\u6b64\u66f8\u5c0d\u660e\u5149\u793e\u7684\u7167\u5996\u93e1\u611f\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u670b\u53cb\ufe50\u4e0d\u59a8\u53bb\u5f35\u570b\u68df\u548c\u5e7e\u4f4d\u6559\u5167\u7406\u6027\u8072\u97f3\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u70af\u8ad6\u535a\u5ba2\ufe50\u7e7c\u7e8c\u8ffd\u8cbc\u660e\u5bdf\u660e\u5149\u793e\u7684\u4e00\u8209\u4e00\u52d5\u3002","rel":"","context":"In &quot;\u5b97\u6559&quot;","block_context":{"text":"\u5b97\u6559","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_religions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/cover142029.jpg?fit=848%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/cover142029.jpg?fit=848%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/cover142029.jpg?fit=848%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/cover142029.jpg?fit=848%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13993,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2019\/12\/10\/social-choice-and-individual-values-2nd-ed-kenneth-j-arrow\/","url_meta":{"origin":12034,"position":3},"title":"Social Choice and Individual Values (2nd Ed.) &#8211; Kenneth J. Arrow","author":"hevangel","date":"December 10, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\u65e9\u524d\u4ecb\u7d39\u904e\u300a\u963f\u7f85\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9a\u7406\u300b\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u662f\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u64b0\u5beb\uff0c\u59cb\u7d42\u65bc\u90a3\u662f\u4e8c\u624b\u7684\u5c0e\u8b80\u5165\u9580\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u627e\u4f86\u4e86\u963f\u7f85\u7684\u539f\u8457\u300aSocial Choice and Individual Values\u300b\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u539f\u8457\u6bd4\u5c0e\u8b80\u300aThe Arrow Impossibility Theorem\u300b\u9084\u8981\u8584\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u767e\u4e8c\u5341\u9801\uff0c\u8207\u8aaa\u5176\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u66f8\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u8aaa\u662f\u4e00\u7bc7\u9577\u8ad6\u6587\u3002 \u539f\u8457\u5beb\u5f97\u6bd4\u5c0e\u8b80\u8271\u6df1\u96e3\u8b80\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u554f\u984c\u662f\u8ad6\u6587\u7684\u5beb\u4f5c\u6027\u8cea\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u56de\u61c9\u5176\u4ed6\u5b78\u8005\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u5728\u53c3\u8003\u7d22\u5f15\u7f85\u5217\u51fa\u8655\uff0c\u4e0d\u719f\u6089\u90a3\u4e9b\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u8b80\u8005\u770b\u5f97\u4e00\u982d\u9727\u6c34\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u8ad6\u9ede\u300a\u963f\u7f85\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9a\u7406\u300b\u5728\u539f\u8457\u4e2d\u7684\u540d\u7a31\u70baThe General Possibility Theorem\uff0c\u5247\u662f\u5f88\u67af\u71e5\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u908f\u8f2f\u63a8\u7406\uff0c\u7528first principle\u53bb\u5b9a\u7fa9social welfare function\u975e\u5e38\u5b78\u8853\uff0c\u5c0d\u6578\u5b78\u548c\u908f\u8f2f\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u4e0d\u9069\u5408\u4e00\u822c\u8b80\u8005\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u770b\u5c0e\u8b80\u7c21\u55ae\u6613\u660e\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u63a8\u8ad6\u5916\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u524d\u8a00\u548c\u7d50\u8a9e\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5beb\u4e0b\u4ed6\u653f\u6cbb\u54f2\u5b78\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6bd4\u8f03\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8aa4\u6703\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u53cd\u6c11\u4e3b\u53c8\u6216\u8005\u652f\u6301\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u4f5c\u8005\u53ea\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u500b\u5b78\u8853\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u793e\u6703\u4e2d\u773e\u4eba\u5982\u4f55\u7406\u6027\u5730\u5f97\u51fa\u5171\u8b58\u3002\u53e4\u4ee3\u7684\u795e\u6b0a\u548c\u738b\u6b0a\u653f\u6cbb\u662f\u4e00\u8a00\u5802\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6aa2\u8996\u7576\u6b0a\u8005\u6709\u5426\u4f5c\u51fa\u7406\u6027\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002\u73fe\u4ee3\u897f\u65b9\u653f\u6cbb\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u548c\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u5206\u5225\u900f\u904e\u6c11\u4e3b\u7a0b\u5e8f\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u6a5f\u5236\uff0c\u53bb\u627e\u51fa\u793e\u6703\u4e2d\u7684\u5171\u8b58\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u6a5f\u5236\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8ab2\u984c\uff0c\u800c\u963f\u7f85\u7406\u8ad6\u7cbe\u8f9f\u4e4b\u8655\uff0c\u662f\u628a\u6c11\u4e3b\u653e\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7406\u6027\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u5167\u6aa2\u8996\u3002 \u529f\u7528\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u6d3e\u7cfb\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f35\u900f\u904e\u8a08\u7b97utilization\u53bb\u6c7a\u5b9a\u793e\u6703\u61c9\u8a72\u5982\u4f55\u5206\u914d\u8cc7\u6e90\u3002\u963f\u7f85\u5247\u5c6c\u65bc\u53cd\u529f\u7528\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6d3e\uff0c\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u4e4b\u9593\u7684utilization\u4e0d\u80fd\u653e\u5165\u540c\u4e00\u6a19\u6e96\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\uff0c\u6c92\u6cd5\u8861\u91cf\u6bd4\u8f03\u6839\u672c\u7121\u5f9e\u8a08\u7b97maximization\u3002\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e0d\u540c\u4eba\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u898b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u6309\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u7684indifference map\u53bb\u4f5c\u4e0d\u540c\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u512a\u6b21\u6392\u540d\u3002\u963f\u7f85\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5047\u5b9a\u8cc7\u8a0a\u5b8c\u5168\u900f\u660e\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u8aa0\u5be6\u5730\u6309\u5fc3\u4e2d\u610f\u9858\u53bb\u6392\u540d\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u7b56\u7565\u6027\u6295\u7968\u6216\u542b\u6dda\u6295\u7968\u8f38\u5c11\u7576\u8d0f\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6392\u540d\u66f4\u52a0\u4e0d\u662f\u55ae\u4e00\u8b70\u984c\u55ae\u4e00\u6295\u7968\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u904e\u5c07\u6240\u6709\u793e\u6703\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u9078\u9805\u6392\u540d\uff0c\u7406\u8ad6\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u601d\u60f3\u5be6\u9a57\u591a\u65bc\u5be6\u969b\u6295\u7968\u64cd\u4f5c\u3002 \u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u8209\u4f8b\u5b50\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u662f\u7528\u4f86\u6c7a\u5b9a\u793e\u6703\u4e0a\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u662f\u6309\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u54c1\u5473\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u53bb\u5206\u914d\u4e0d\u7528\u6578\u91cf\u7684\u793e\u6703\u8cc7\u6e90\uff0c\u4eba\u8207\u4eba\u4e4b\u9593\u53c8\u5982\u4f55\u4f5c\u51fa\u8cc7\u6e90\u4ea4\u63db\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u7159\u6c11\u5206\u591a\u4e9b\u7159\uff0c\u9152\u5f92\u5206\u591a\u4e9b\u9152\u7b49\u3002\u6709\u8da3\u662f\u4f5c\u8005\u8ad6\u8ff0\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u4e2d\u516c\u5e73\u6168\u5ff5\u7684\u5169\u96e3\u984c\uff0c\u7981\u617e\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u9f13\u5439\u7981\u7159\u7981\u9152\uff0c\u90a3\u82e5\u679c\u6700\u7d42\u653f\u7b56\u5171\u8b58\u662f\u7981\u7159\u7981\u9152\uff0c\u90a3\u9152\u5f92\u7159\u6c11\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u591a\u4e9b\u9eb5\u5305\uff0c\u53bb\u88dc\u511f\u4ed6\u5011\u5931\u53bb\u7159\u9152\u7684\u640d\u5931\u5462\uff1f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u672c\u8cea\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u9078\u6c11\u54c1\u5473\u7684\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u57fa\u65bc\u4ed6\u5011\u81ea\u8eab\u5229\u76ca\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u900f\u904e\u516c\u958b\u8faf\u8ad6\uff0c\u51dd\u805a\u793e\u6703\u5171\u8b58\u7684\u6a5f\u5236\u5462\uff1f\u9664\u4e86\u500b\u4eba\u610f\u5fd7\u5916\uff0c\u793e\u6703\u5171\u540c\u9ad4\u53c8\u6c92\u6709\u610f\u5fd7\u5462\uff1f\u6295\u7968\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u5c0b\u627e\u5171\u8b58\u7b54\u6848\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u6295\u7968\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u6709\u5176\u672c\u7136\u50f9\u503c\u5462\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6bd4\u4ed6\u89e3\u7b54\u7684\u9084\u591a\u3002\u59cb\u7d42\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e0d\u662f\u8b1b\u653f\u6cbb\u54f2\u5b78\uff0c\u95dc\u65bc\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u672c\u8cea\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u53ea\u662f\u4f34\u789f\u5c0f\u83dc\uff0c\u591a\u5c11\u7bc7\u5e45\u80fd\u6df1\u5165\u8a0e\u8ad6\u554f\u984c\u3002 \u9019\u672c\u5c0f\u66f8\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u54f2\u5b78\u7684\u7d93\u5178\uff0c\u8cb7\u56de\u5bb6\u653e\u5728\u66f8\u67b6\u80fd\u7a81\u986f\u95a3\u4e0b\u7684\u77e5\u6027\u548c\u8b80\u54c1\u5473\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u60f3\u7406\u89e3\u300a\u963f\u7f85\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9a\u7406\u300b\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u770b\u5c0e\u8b80\u7248\u6bd4\u8f03\u9069\u5408\u3002","rel":"","context":"In &quot;\u66f8\u8a55&quot;","block_context":{"text":"\u66f8\u8a55","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/13168536839.jpg?fit=780%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/13168536839.jpg?fit=780%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/13168536839.jpg?fit=780%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/13168536839.jpg?fit=780%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":670,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2006\/12\/20\/zen-and-the-art-of-motorcycle-maintance-robert-m-pirsig\/","url_meta":{"origin":12034,"position":4},"title":"Zen and The Art of Motorcycle Maintance &#8211; Robert M. Pirsig","author":"hevangel","date":"December 20, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"\u5728\u95b1\u8b80\u5225\u4eba\u6700\u559c\u611b\u7684\u66f8\u672c\u540d\u55ae\u4e2d\ufe50\u4e45\u4e0d\u4e45\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u73fe\u79aa\u8207\u96fb\u55ae\u8eca\u4fee\u7406\u7684\u85dd\u8853\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u7522\u91cf\u4e0d\u591a\ufe50\u9019\u9ebc\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u5c31\u53ea\u5beb\u4e86\u4e09\u90e8\u4f5c\u54c1\ufe50\u9019\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u8457\u4f5c\ufe50\u4ea6\u662f\u4ed6\u6210\u540d\u4e4b\u4f5c\u3002\u9019\u66f8\u9762\u4e16\u5df2\u7d93\u6709\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u4e86\ufe50\u4ecd\u7136\u4f9d\u5728\u66a2\u92b7\u66f8\u699c\u4e0a\u6709\u540d\ufe50\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u5927\u73ed\u80af\u5b9a\u9019\u4f4d\u4f5c\u5bb6\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u8ffd\u96a8\u8005\ufe50\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u5df2\u7d93\u5960\u5b9a\u5176\u7d93\u5178\u7d1a\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u6211\u597d\u4e45\u4ee5\u524d\u4e5f\u5df2\u7d93\u807d\u904e\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u540d\u5b57\ufe50\u4e00\u76f4\u4e5f\u4e0d\u592a\u6e05\u695a\u5b83\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u8aaa\u4ec0\u9ebc\ufe50\u53ea\u662f\u807d\u8aaa\u904e\u6709\u5f88\u6df1\u5f88\u6709\u555f\u767c\u6027\u7684\u9053\u7406\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u67d0\u4e00\u5929\u548c\u5973\u670b\u53cb\u8ac7\u8a71\u6642\ufe50\u4e0d\u77e5\u4f55\u89e3\u7684\u804a\u5730\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e0a\ufe50\u5979\u8aaa\u66fe\u7d93\u770b\u904e\u534a\u90e8\ufe50\u8a8d\u70ba\u5f88\u9069\u5408\u6211\u770b\ufe50\u65bc\u662f\u9806\u9053\u5728\u7db2\u4e0a\u8a02\u5176\u4ed6\u66f8\u6642\u8cb7\u4e86\u3002\u8cb7\u56de\u4f86\u770b\u4e86\u958b\u982d\u7684\u5e7e\u7ae0\u5f8c\ufe50\u89ba\u5f97\u6709\u9ede\u60b6\u52a0\u4e0a\u525b\u8cb7\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u672c\u66f8\ufe50\u4fbf\u653e\u4e0b\u6c92\u6709\u518d\u770b\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u597d\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u5076\u7136\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u518d\u6b21\u62ff\u8d77\u4f86\u770b\ufe50\u767c\u89ba\u4e00\u4e9b\u4ee5\u524d\u6c92\u6709\u7559\u610f\u7684\u601d\u60f3\ufe50\u624d\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u958b\u59cb\u770b\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u3002\u770b\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u662f\u9700\u8981\u6642\u9593\u53bb\u6d88\u5316\u7684\ufe50\u6240\u4ee5\u6bcf\u5929\u53ea\u80fd\u770b\u5e7e\u9801\u3002\u6211\u8db3\u8db3\u770b\u4e86\u4e09\u56db\u500b\u6708\u624d\u5b8c\u6210\ufe50\u73fe\u5728\u6709\u9ede\u89e3\u812b\u91cb\u653e\u7684\u611f\u89ba\u3002 \u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u628a\u66f8\u540d\u6539\u70baThe Art of Motorcycle Traveling\u66f4\u70ba\u8cbc\u5207\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u66f8\u540d\u5f88\u6709\u8aa4\u5c0e\u6027\ufe50\u66f8\u7684\u4e3b\u984c\u548c\u6211\u5011\u719f\u6089\u7684\u79aa\u6c92\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u95dc\u4fc2\ufe50\u800c\u6709\u95dc\u4fee\u7406\u96fb\u55ae\u8eca\u624d\u4e0d\u904e\u53ea\u6709\u5e7e\u7ae0\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u6709\u4e00\u534a\u6642\u9593\u662f\u6558\u8ff0\u5169\u7236\u5b50\ufe50\u99d5\u8457\u96fb\u55ae\u8eca\u7a7f\u6d32\u904e\u7701\u6240\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u534a\u6642\u9593\u5247\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u5e73\u8861\u6545\u4e8b\ufe50\u85c9\u90a3\u7236\u89aa\u7684\u53e3\u548c\u5167\u5fc3\u601d\u60f3\ufe50\u53bb\u662f\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e00\u500b\u540d\u53ebPhaedrus\u7684\u4eba\u7684\u904e\u53bb\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u4ed6\u5011\u4e8c\u4eba\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u63a5\u8fd1\u7d42\u7ad9\u7684\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u6d77\u5cb8\ufe50\u6709\u95dc\u4ed6\u7684\u8b0e\u5718\u4ea6\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u6e05\u76fa\ufe50\u5230\u6700\u5f8c\u767c\u73fe\u539f\u4f86\u5169\u500b\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4eba\u539f\u4f86\u7adf\u7136\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u5169\u7236\u5b50\u65c5\u884c\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\ufe50\u662f\u628a\u53e6\u5916\u90a3\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u4e32\u9023\u8d77\u4f86\u3002\u4e0d\u7136\u55ae\u55ae\u7684\u8ff0\u8aaaPhaedrus\u7684\u54f2\u5b78\ufe50\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ed6\u5c0d\u50f9\u503c\u672c\u8cea\u7684\u8ffd\u6c42\u6b77\u7a0b\ufe50\u5c31\u6703\u986f\u5f97\u6709\u9ede\u5152\u55ae\u8abf\u4e4f\u5473\u3002 \u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7b97\u662f\u5c6c\u65bc\u54f2\u5b78\u6216\u65b0\u7d00\u5143\u601d\u60f3\u985e\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\ufe50\u7576\u4e2d\u7531\u79d1\u6280\u8207\u85dd\u8853\u7684\u4e8c\u5206\u6cd5\u958b\u59cb\ufe50\u53bb\u7528\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u771f\u5047\ufe50\u4ec0\u9ebc\u624d\u662f\u7f8e\u5584\u548c\u597d\u58de\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u7d14\u7406\u6027\u5ba2\u89c0\u5730\u770b\u4e16\u754c\ufe50\u6216\u662f\u7d14\u85dd\u8853\u6027\u4e3b\u89c0\u5730\u770b\u4e16\u754c\ufe50\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u5176\u5316\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u89c0\u9ede\u662f\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u54c1\u8cea\ufe50\u662f\u51cc\u99d5\u65bc\u4e3b\u89c0\u5ba2\u89c0\u5c64\u8981\u4e4b\u4e0a\ufe50\u662f\u70ba\u4e0d\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u8a9e\u8a00\u4f86\u4ecb\u5b9a\u6216\u8868\u9054\u5176\u542b\u610f\ufe50\u4f46\u4eba\u53c8\u53ef\u4ee5\u6e96\u78ba\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u5b83\u7684\u610f\u601d\ufe50\u5f9e\u4ee5\u4f5c\u51fa\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u751f\u6d3b\u4e4b\u4e2d\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u3002\u66f8\u7684\u5f8c\u534a\u90e8\u628a\u9019\u5957\u4ee5\u54c1\u8cea\u70ba\u672c\u7684\u601d\u8003\u7cfb\u7d71\ufe50\u5957\u7528\u4f86\u53e4\u5e0c\u81d8\u54f2\u5b78\u4e0a\ufe50\u5617\u8a66\u628a\u6e90\u65bc\u67cf\u62c9\u5716\u548c\u4e9e\u57fa\u7c73\u5fb7\u7684\u897f\u65b9\u54f2\u5b78\u601d\u60f3\u91cd\u65b0\u8a6e\u8b6f\u3002\u66f8\u672c\u7684\u7d50\u5c3e\u672b\u76e1\u4eba\u610f\u6709\u9ede\u53cd\u9ad8\u6f6e\u7684\u5473\u9053\ufe50\u4ee5\u4e3b\u89d2\u601d\u8003\u904e\u5ea6\u4ee5\u81f3\u767c\u760b\u5b8c\u5834\ufe50\u7559\u4e0b\u5f88\u591a\u54f2\u5b78\u4e0a\u7a7a\u767d\u6c92\u6709\u586b\u4e0a\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u7d66\u8b80\u8005\u601d\u8003\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u4ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u5728\u4f5c\u8005\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u666e\u53ca\u8b80\u7269\u4e2d\ufe50\u6c92\u6709\u8fa8\u6cd5\u518d\u53bb\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8a0e\u9019\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u554f\u984c\ufe50\u800c\u4e0d\u540c\u6642\u9593\u904b\u7528\u5927\u91cf\u6c89\u60b6\u7684\u54f2\u5b78\u80cc\u666f\u8cc7\u6599\ufe50\u53ea\u597d\u6545\u4f5c\u9ad8\u6df1\u5730\u8349\u8349\u6536\u5834\u3002 \u7e3d\u62ec\u4f86\u8aaa\ufe50\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6709\u9ede\u8b7d\u904e\u5176\u5be6\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u96d6\u7136\u4e0d\u4e4f\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u601d\u8003\u9ede\u5b50\ufe50\u4f46\u662f\u4f5c\u70ba\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u9aa8\u5e79\u7684\u54f2\u5b78\u7cfb\u7d71\ufe50\u5247\u4e0d\u5982\u50b3\u805e\u4e2d\u90a3\u6a23\u6709\u7368\u5275\u6027\u6709\u898b\u5730\ufe50\u53ea\u4e0d\u904e\u4f5c\u8005\u662f\u628a\u5176\u4ed6\u4f86\u6e90\u7684\u601d\u60f3\ufe50\u7528\u6dfa\u767d\u7684\u6587\u5b57\u53bb\u52a0\u5de5\u6539\u826f\u5305\u88dd\u7f77\u4e86\u3002\u800c\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u5beb\u4f5c\u6280\u5de7\u4e5f\u6709\u5f85\u6539\u9032\u7684\u5730\u65b9\ufe50\u5169\u500b\u5e73\u8861\u6545\u4e8b\u4e4b\u7684\u7684\u7d44\u7e54\u9b06\u6563\ufe50\u5728\u601d\u60f3\u8207\u601d\u60f3\u4e4b\u9593\u6c92\u6709\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u9023\u8cab\u6027\ufe50\u50cf\u662f\u60f3\u5230\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5c31\u5beb\u4ec0\u9ebc\ufe50\u6700\u5f8c\u624d\u628a\u6240\u6709\u6587\u7ae0\u8cbc\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u51fa\u7248\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8aaa\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6539\u8b8a\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\ufe50\u53ef\u662f\u6211\u770b\u5b8c\u5f8c\u9664\u4e86\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u6211\u4e5f\u770b\u904e\u5916\ufe50\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u611f\u89ba\u5230\u5927\u592a\u7684\u5f97\u8457\u3002\u6211\u60f3\u5f85\u5341\u5e7e\u5e74\u5f8c\u6211\u6703\u628a\u9019\u66f8\u91cd\u65b0\u518d\u8b80\u4e00\u904d\ufe50\u770b\u770b\u6211\u6703\u4e0d\u6703\u5c0d\u5b83\u6709\u6240\u6539\u89c0\u3002","rel":"","context":"In &quot;\u66f8\u8a55&quot;","block_context":{"text":"\u66f8\u8a55","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2006\/12\/068800230701_aa240_sclzzzzzzz_.jpg?fit=240%2C240&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":13835,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2019\/11\/11\/the-subtle-art-of-not-giving-a-fck-mark-manson\/","url_meta":{"origin":12034,"position":5},"title":"The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck &#8211; Mark Manson","author":"hevangel","date":"November 11, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u300c\u4e16\u7d00\u5927\u8faf\u8ad6\u300d\uff0c\u8b93\u6211\u5c0dJordon Peterson\u6709\u9ede\u8208\u8da3\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u8d70\u4e86\u53bb\u770b\u4ed6\u90a3\u672c\u300a12 Rules for Life\u300b\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u770b\u4e86\u5169\u7ae0\u5df2\u7d93\u88ab\u60b6\u58de\u4e86\uff0c\u4ed6\u5beb\u5f97\u9084\u9577\u6c23\u56c9\u5506\u904e\u963f\u5a46\u3002\u53cd\u6b63\u60f3\u770b\u4e00\u4e9b\u505a\u4eba\u9053\u7406\u7684\u66f8\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u9670\u5dee\u967d\u932f\u7684\u8b80\u4e86\u9019\u672c\u300aThe Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck\u300b\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u540d\u7a31\u5687\u58de\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u9019\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6559\u505a\u4eba\u7684\u66f8\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u5beb\u5f97\u6bd4Jordon Peterson\u66f4\u597d\u770b\u3002 \u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7b2c\u4e00\u7ae0\u7c97\u53e3\u6eff\u5929\u98db\uff0c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u7d14\u8403\u662f\u884c\u92b7\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4e0d\u5629\u773e\u53d6\u5bf5\u53c8\u5982\u4f55\u5438\u5f15\u8b80\u8005\u5462\uff1f\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u7ae0\u7bc0\u4f5c\u8005\u7528\u5b57\u6709\u6240\u6536\u6b5b\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u5c3e\u6211\u751a\u81f3\u61f7\u7591\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u770b\u932f\u53e6\u4e00\u672c\u66f8\uff0c\u7adf\u7136\u5beb\u5f97\u4f3c\u6a21\u4f3c\u6a23\u4ee5\u6587\u8f09\u9053\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u9053\u7406\u8aaa\u7a7f\u4e86\u4e00\u5b57\u5481\u6dfa\uff0c\u4eba\u751f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u70ba\u8ffd\u6c42\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u537b\u8ff7\u5931\u81ea\u6211\u4e0d\u5feb\u6a02\uff0c\u9762\u5c0d\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e16\u4fd7\u7684\u773c\u5149\uff0c\u5012\u4e0d\u5982\u4ed6\u5abd\u7684\u8ab0\u7ba1\u4ed6\u3002\u66f8\u672c\u7684\u526f\u984c\u662f\u300c\u53cd\u5e38\u8b58\u53bb\u904e\u597d\u751f\u6d3b\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u77e5\u6211\u662f\u5426\u4e00\u5411\u4e0d\u559c\u6b61\u770b\u90a3\u4e9b\u300c\u81ea\u6211\u5e6b\u52a9\u300d\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u5c0d\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u505a\u4eba\u9053\u7406\u6709\u4ed6\u9109\u9047\u6545\u77e5\u7684\u611f\u89ba\uff0c\u628a\u6211\u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u54f2\u5b78\u5beb\u51fa\u4f86\uff0c\u8b80\u8d77\u4f86\u5341\u5206\u66a2\u5feb\u3002 \u66f8\u672c\u958b\u5b97\u540d\u7fa9\uff0c\u8aaa\u660e\u5f88\u591a\u4e16\u4e8b\uff0c\u5c0d\u4eba\u751f\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u4eb3\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u60f3\u8981\u904e\u597d\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u5148\u8981\u653e\u958b\u8ffd\u6c42\u300c\u597d\u751f\u6d3b\u300d\u7684\u5e7b\u60f3\u3002\u4e0d\u7528\u52c9\u5f37\u81ea\u5df1\u505a\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\uff0c\u4f60\u9078\u64c7\u64d4\u5fc3\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e8b\uff0c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4f60\u4eba\u751f\u7684\u597d\u58de\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u4f60\u4e8b\u4e8b\u64d4\u5fc3\uff0c\u90a3\u5176\u5be6\u4f60\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u4f5c\u51fa\u4efb\u4f55\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u6c92\u6709\u6392\u597d\u512a\u6b21\u9806\u5e8f\u3002\u4e0d\u662f\u53eb\u4f60\u58d3\u6291\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8ca0\u9762\u60c5\u7dd2\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u63a5\u53d7\u81ea\u5df1\u5931\u6557\u548c\u4e0d\u5e78\uff0c\u5b78\u9ec3\u5b50\u83ef\u8aaa\u53e5\u300c\u90a3\u53c8\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u300d\u3002\u807d\u8d77\u4f86\u5f88\u79aa\uff0c\u5927\u6168\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u9053\u7406\uff0c\u771f\u7684\u6709\u9ede\u79aa\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u7a7f\u63d2\u5f88\u591a\u4f5c\u8005\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u7d93\u6b77\u4f5c\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e5f\u8a31\u53ea\u662f\u4f5c\u8005\u5c0d\u81ea\u5df1\u4eba\u751f\u7684\u53cd\u601d\uff0c\u65e2\u7136\u601d\u8003\u4e86\u4fbf\u7d22\u6027\u5beb\u51fa\u4f86\u8aaa\u7d66\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u807d\u3002 \u6574\u672c\u66f8\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u6700\u597d\u7684\u5efa\u8b70\u6709\u5169\u9805\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u9805\u662f\u4e0d\u8981\u5bb3\u6015\u5e73\u5eb8\uff0c\u73fe\u4eca\u793e\u6703\u4e0a\u6709\u4e00\u80a1\u98a8\u6c23\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u4eba\u751f\u8981\u8207\u773e\u4e0d\u540c\u624d\u6d3b\u5f97\u7cbe\u5f69\uff0c\u5728\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u9ad4\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u50cf\u571f\u8c6a\u822c\u70ab\u8000\u8ca1\u5bcc\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u70ab\u8000\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u6c92\u6709\u7684\u7279\u5225\u9ad4\u9a57\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u544a\u8a22\u6211\u5011\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u4eba\u90fd\u662f\u5e73\u5eb8\uff0c\u904e\u8457\u71df\u71df\u5f79\u5f79\u7684\u4e00\u751f\uff0c\u52c9\u5f37\u81ea\u5df1\u53bb\u8ffd\u6c42\u4e0d\u5c6c\u65bc\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u53ea\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u7169\u60f1\u3002\u6211\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u5f88\u5e73\u51e1\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6d3b\u5f97\u7cbe\u5f69\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u9178\u8461\u8404\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9805\u662f\u4e0d\u8981\u8ffd\u6c42\u5feb\u6a02\uff0c\u8ffd\u6c42\u5feb\u6a02\u5f88\u865b\u7121\u98c4\u6e3a\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u5feb\u6a02\uff0c\u4ea6\u4e0d\u8981\u5bb3\u6015\u9762\u5c0d\u56f0\u96e3\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u6b7b\u4eba\u624d\u4e0d\u6703\u9762\u5c0d\u554f\u984c\u3002\u4f60\u61c9\u8a72\u6311\u9078\u4ec0\u9ebc\u96e3\u984c\u53bb\u89e3\u6c7a\uff0c\u5feb\u6a02\u5c31\u5728\u89e3\u7b54\u56f0\u96e3\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u7576\u4e2d\u3002\u6211\u60f3\u8d77\u4e86\u5f88\u4e45\u4ee5\u524d\u807d\u904e\u7684\u4e00\u756a\u8a71\uff0c\u5feb\u6a02\u5c31\u597d\u50cf\u5c0f\u72d7\u7684\u5c3e\u5df4\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u4f60\u53ea\u5d11\u8ffd\u6c42\u5feb\u6a02\uff0c\u90a3\u4f60\u6703\u4e0d\u505c\u5730\u5728\u539f\u5730\u8f49\u5708\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u4e0d\u65b7\u5411\u524d\u8dd1\uff0c\u5feb\u6a02\u4fbf\u81ea\u7136\u8ddf\u8457\u4f60\u5f8c\u9762\u3002 \u984c\u5916\u8a71\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u53f0\u7063\u8b6f\u4f5c\u300a\u7ba1\u4ed6\u7684\uff1a\u6108\u5728\u610f\u6108\u4e0d\u958b\u5fc3\uff01\u505c\u6b62\u88ab\u6d17\u8166\uff0c\u6d3b\u51fa\u701f\u7051\u81ea\u5728\u7684\u5feb\u610f\u4eba\u751f\u300b\uff0c\u8b6f\u540d\u4e00\u8cab\u5730\u53f0\u5f0f\u5b0c\u60c5\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u53ea\u5c11\u4fdd\u5b58\u300c\u7ba1\u4ed6\u7684\u300d\u4e09\u500b\u5b57\u7684\u795e\u9ad3\u3002\u5927\u9678\u7248\u6709\u5169\u500b\u8b6f\u540d\uff0c\u5e73\u6642\u5927\u9678\u8b6f\u540d\u7e3d\u662f\u7167\u5b57\u9762\u76f4\u8b6f\uff0c\u4eca\u6b21\u5927\u6982\u66f8\u540d\u6709\u7c97\u53e3\u88ab\u548c\u8ae7\u4e86\uff0c\u8b8a\u6210\u56db\u5e73\u516b\u7a69\u7684\u300a\u91cd\u5851\u5e78\u798f\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u6d3b\u6210\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u7684\u6a21\u6a23\u300b\u548c\u300a\u4e0d\u5728\u4e4e\u7684\u7cbe\u5999\u85dd\u8853\u300b\uff0c\u807d\u8d77\u4f86\u9813\u6210\u4f5c\u8005\u5927\u529b\u97ad\u97c3\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u300c\u6b63\u80fd\u661f\u300d\u66f8\u85c9\u3002\u53ef\u60dc\u9999\u6e2f\u6c92\u6709\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e2d\u6587\u7248\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6709\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u66f8\u540d\u8b6f\u4f5c\u300a\u5c4c\uff01\u53c8\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u300b\u5e7e\u5481\u50b3\u795e\u5462\u3002","rel":"","context":"In &quot;\u66f8\u8a55&quot;","block_context":{"text":"\u66f8\u8a55","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/71t4GuxLCuL.jpg?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/71t4GuxLCuL.jpg?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/71t4GuxLCuL.jpg?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/71t4GuxLCuL.jpg?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12034","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12034"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12034\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12041,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12034\/revisions\/12041"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12034"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12034"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12034"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}