{"id":14096,"date":"2020-03-17T22:30:25","date_gmt":"2020-03-18T06:30:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/?p=14096"},"modified":"2022-04-02T21:10:49","modified_gmt":"2022-04-03T05:10:49","slug":"a-random-walk-down-wall-street-burton-g-malkiel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2020\/03\/17\/a-random-walk-down-wall-street-burton-g-malkiel\/","title":{"rendered":"A Random Walk Down Wall Street &#8211; Burton G Malkiel"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/81C0ZbPfjuL.jpg?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"14097\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2020\/03\/17\/a-random-walk-down-wall-street-burton-g-malkiel\/81c0zbpfjul\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/81C0ZbPfjuL.jpg?fit=1200%2C1824&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1200,1824\" 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\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u7092\u8ce3\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6559\u5b78\u624b\u518a\uff0c\u80a1\u795e\u7684\u5e74\u4ee3\u9084\u672a\u767c\u660e\u4eca\u5929\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u5716\u8868\u6280\u8853\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4ed6\u81e8\u7d42\u6642\u5beb\u4e86\u4e00\u672c\u300aHow to Trade in Stocks\u300b\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u5be6\u6230\u64cd\u4f5c\u90a3\u90e8\u4efd\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u904e\u6642\u3002\u95b1\u8b80\u9019\u672c\u300a\u80a1\u795e\u56de\u61b6\u9304\u300b\u6700\u5927\u5f97\u8457\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u5fc3\u6cd5\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u574a\u9593\u4e0d\u5c11\u7db2\u7ad9\u6709\u7bc0\u9304\u80a1\u795e\u7684\u5341\u5927\u6295\u8cc7\u6559\u689d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6b62\u8755\u4e0d\u6b62\u8cfa\uff0c\u8981\u9806\u52e2\u800c\u884c\uff0c\u63c0\u5f37\u52e2\u7248\u584a\u7684\u5f37\u52e2\u80a1\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u6709\u5148\u5165\u70ba\u4e3b\u5b58\u6709\u504f\u898b\uff0c\u8981\u7559\u610f\u5e02\u5834\u8a0a\u865f\u8f49\u52e2\uff0c\u5165\u5e02\u8981\u7b97\u597d\u6642\u6a5f\u50f9\u4f4d\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u672a\u6709\u660e\u6717\u5be7\u53ef\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7092\u4e0a\u4ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u7092\u843d\uff0c\u725b\u5e02\u718a\u5e02\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u8cfa\u9322\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u76f8\u4fe1\u4efb\u4f55\u8cbc\u58eb\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u81ea\u5df1\u505a\u529f\u8ab2\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u8a18\u5f97\u751a\u81f3\u80cc\u5f97\u51fa\u6295\u8cc7\u6559\u689d\u662f\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u98a8\u9ad8\u6d6a\u6025\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u6295\u8cc7\u7d00\u5f8b\u56b4\u5b88\u5165\u5e02\u548c\u6b62\u8755\u6642\u6a5f\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u80fd\u5426\u8cfa\u5230\u9322\u53c8\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\u3002 \u80a1\u795e\u6700\u521d\u662f\u5728\u7d93\u7d00\u884c\u7684\u5831\u50f9\u54e1\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u770b\u8457\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u843d\uff0c\u81ea\u884c\u7814\u767c\u51fa\u4e00\u5957\u6280\u8853\u5206\u6790\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u5728\u5916\u570d\u8ced\u5834bucket shop\u8cfa\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u6876\u91d1\u5f8c\uff0c\u8f49\u6230\u7d10\u7d04\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u6b63\u5f0f\u8ce3\u8cb7\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u8dcc\u66fe\u7834\u7522\u516d\u6b21\u3002\u80a1\u795e\u8cb7\u8ce3\u6cbd\u7a7a\u505a\u5e02\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u6703\u5927\u5f97\u5e36\u52d5\u80a1\u50f9\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4ed6\u624d\u9700\u8981\u6709\u7d30\u6ce8\u78bc\u8a66\u6c34\u6eab\uff0c\u65b9\u5411\u5c0d\u7136\u5f8c\u518d\u52a0\u6ce8\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u6642\u6a5f\u8981\u8003\u616e\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u627f\u6258\u529b\u3002\u6211\u5011\u6563\u6236\u7092\u80a1\u7968\u53ea\u662f\u5927\u6d77\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u6ef4\u6c34\uff0c\u5c0d\u80a1\u50f9\u5b8c\u5168\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\uff0cday trade\u6216swing trade\u5927\u6168\u548c\u80a1\u795e\u5c11\u5e74\u6642\u5728bucket shop\u8ced\u5347\u8dcc\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u3002 \u4e00\u767e\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u4eca\u5929\u5f88\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u628a\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7576\u91d1\u878d\u6b77\u53f2\u770b\u53cd\u800c\u66f4\u6709\u8da3\u5473\u6027\u3002\u80a1\u795e\u5e74\u4ee3\u9084\u672a\u6709perfect market theory\uff0cSEC\u9084\u672a\u6210\u7acb\u5167\u5e55\u6d88\u606f\u6eff\u5929\u98db\uff0c\u672a\u6709high frequency trading\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u6a5f\u6703\u8cfa\u53d6\u50f9\u683c\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u672a\u6709\u9577\u63f8ETF\u7684\u88ab\u52d5\u6295\u8cc7\u6cd5\u3002\u90a3\u500b\u5e74\u4ee3\u53ea\u6709\u6295\u6a5f\u8005\u624d\u73a9\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u5132\u84c4\u662f\u8cfc\u8cb7\u50b5\u5238\u5b89\u5b89\u7a69\u7a69\u6536\u5229\u606f\u3002\u73fe\u4eca\u4f4e\u606f\u5e74\u4ee3\u628a\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u63a8\u5411\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u7684\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u534a\u4ee5\u4e0a\u9593\u63a5\u76f4\u63a5\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u88cf\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u559c\u6b61\u8207\u5426\u90fd\u8981\u9f4a\u9f4a\u53c3\u52a0\u80a1\u5e02\u904a\u6232\u3002 \u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e0d\u80a1\u5e02\u5fc5\u8d0f\u7684\u79d8\u6280\uff0c\u6211\u8b80\u5b8c\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5f97\u8457\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u8f38\u9322\u6642\u7684\u5fc3\u614b\u3002\u8cb7\u4e86\u80a1\u7968\u8dcc\u5343\u842c\u4e0d\u8981\u6e9d\u8ca8\uff0c\u6b62\u8755\u96e2\u5834\u7b49\u5019\u80a1\u7968\u8f49\u52e2\u624d\u91cd\u65b0\u5165\u8ca8\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u523b\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u65b0\u7684\u7368\u7acb\u6295\u8cc7\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u4f60\u624b\u4e0a\u64c1\u6709\u6216\u4ee5\u524d\u8cb7\u904e\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u4f60\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f60\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u8003\u616e\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u5347\u8dcc\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u60f3\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u4e2d\u8cfa\u9322\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u4f60\u628a\u8cb7\u8ce3\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u9322\u7576\u662f\u9322\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u5fc3\u6025\u6253\u4e82\u4f60\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee4\u8cb7\u5230\u5fc5\u8cfa\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u679c\u4f60\u597d\u5f69\u8cb7\u4e2d\u80a1\u7968\u5347\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6703\u8b93\u4f60\u8cfa\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u5e78\u8cb7\u932f\u80a1\u7968\u8dcc\u6642\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5247\u8b93\u4f60\u8f38\u5f97\u5c11\u4e9b\u9322\u3002","rel":"","context":"In &quot;\u6295\u8cc7\u8ced\u535a&quot;","block_context":{"text":"\u6295\u8cc7\u8ced\u535a","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_market\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/71EDugNUU-L.jpg?fit=887%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/71EDugNUU-L.jpg?fit=887%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/71EDugNUU-L.jpg?fit=887%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/71EDugNUU-L.jpg?fit=887%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":15094,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2022\/04\/03\/%e6%b7%ba%e8%ab%96%e5%85%ab%e5%a4%a7%e8%b3%87%e7%94%a2%e9%a1%9e%e5%88%a5\/","url_meta":{"origin":14096,"position":2},"title":"\u6dfa\u8ad6\u4e5d\u5927\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225","author":"hevangel","date":"April 3, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\u81ea\u5f9e\u6211\u5728\u860b\u679c\u65e5\u5831\u7684\u5c08\u6b04\u88ab\u6d88\u5931\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u63d0\u4e0d\u8d77\u52c1\u5beb\u6587\u7ae0\u3002\u5beb\u5b8c\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u8b80\u8005\uff0c\u53ea\u5728\u670b\u53cb\u4e4b\u9593\u50b3\u95b1\uff0c\u81ea\u5df2\u5b64\u82b3\u81ea\u8cde\uff0c\u96e3\u514d\u9ede\u5152\u610f\u8208\u6b04\u67f5\u3002\u6211\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u559c\u6b61\u5beb\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5beb\u6587\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u6211\u53bb\u6c89\u6bbf\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u53c8\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u6211\u7406\u5ff5\u5ee3\u50b3\u958b\u53bb\u3002\u601d\u524d\u60f3\u5f8c\uff0c\u6211\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u5beb\u7684\u984c\u76ee\uff0c\u8b80\u8005\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u770b\u7684\u984c\u76ee\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u7d66\u767c\u8868\u5e73\u53f0\u5e36\u4f86\u9ebb\u7169\uff0c\u5c31\u53ea\u6709\u6211\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b46\u8a18\u3002\u9999\u6e2f\u4eba\u8cfa\u9322\u81f3\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u8b8a\u6210\u4e00\u570b\u4e00\u5236\uff0c\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u7e3d\u4e0d\u6210\u7981\u6b62\u7092\u80a1\u7968\u5427\u3002\u5f9e\u4eca\u958b\u59cb\u6211\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u7db2\u7d61\u5e73\u53f0\u767c\u8868\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u4ee5\u6295\u8cc7\u77e5\u8b58\u548c\u6280\u5de7\u5206\u4eab\u70ba\u4e3b\u3002 \u8aaa\u5b8c\u6211\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5beb\u6295\u8cc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u90a3\u4f5c\u70ba\u8b80\u8005\u7684\u4f60\uff0c\u53c8\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8981\u770b\u6211\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5462\uff1f\u6211\u4e0d\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u5c08\u696d\u4eba\u4ed5\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u5728\u67d0\u8001\u5b57\u865f\u77fd\u8c37\u5927\u516c\u53f8\u6253\u5de5\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e2b\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u9f61\u52c9\u5f37\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u8d85\u904e\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u5927\u5b78\u5e74\u4ee3\u6253\u5de5\u8cfa\u9322\u5df2\u7d93\u6709\u73a9\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u66fe\u7d93\u8d0f\u904e\u5f88\u591a\u7d19\u4e0a\u8ca1\u5bcc\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u79d1\u7db2\u6ce1\u6cac\u7206\u7834\uff0c\u8755\u9322\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u589e\u503c\u9000\u7a05\u984d\uff0c\u7528\u4e86\u5341\u5e74\u624d\u7528\u5b8c\u3002\u4eba\u751f\u5927\u90e8\u6642\u9593\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u6c89\u60b6\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u88ab\u52d5\u5730\u8cb7\u5728\u9000\u4f11\u6236\u53e3\u8cb7ETF\uff0c\u6258\u8cf4\u8fd1\u5341\u5e74\u5927\u725b\u5e02\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u56de\u5831\u4e5f\u5f88\u7406\u60f3\u3002\u76f4\u5230\u75ab\u60c5\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u6d6a\u6bba\u5f97\u6211\u624b\u8db3\u7121\u63aa\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0awork from home\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u86c7\u738b\u5077\u61f6\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u958b\u59cb\u6bcf\u5929\u5f88\u52e4\u529b\u5730\u7747\u5e02\u3002\u9019\u5169\u5e74\u9593\u6211\u4ea4\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5b78\u8cbb\uff0c\u671f\u9593\u7684\u7d93\u6b77\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u548c\u5927\u5bb6\u6162\u6162\u5206\u4eab\u3002\u5f9e2020\u5e74\u6211\u81ea\u5df2\u958b\u59cb\u64cd\u76e4\u8a08\uff0c\u52302022\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u7d50\u7b97\u552f\u6b62\uff0c\u9000\u4f11\u5927\u5009\u6211\u662f\u8dd1\u8d0f\u5927\u5e02(\u8a08SPY\u548cQQQ\uff09\u3002\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u8ced\u9322\u7d30\u5009\uff0c\u4e00\u5e74\u56de\u5831\u8d85\u904e\u5169\u500d\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u9996\u5b63\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u8755\u9322\uff0c\u6211\u9006\u5e02\u5927\u8cfa40%\u3002 \u9019\u5169\u5e74\u6211\u95b1\u8b80\u548c\u6536\u770b\u5f88\u591a\u8ca1\u7d93\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u574a\u9593\u6709\u5206\u5716\u8868\u6d3e\u548c\u57fa\u672c\u6d3e\u4e4b\u722d\uff0c\u6211\u5c31\u8a8d\u70ba\u53ea\u6709\u5c0f\u670b\u53cb\u624d\u8981\u9078\u64c7\uff0cwhy not both? \u7528\u57fa\u672c\u6d3e\u7684\u529f\u592b\u9078\u64c7\u677f\u584a\u548c\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u7528\u5716\u8868\u6d3e\u7684\u529f\u592b\u5c0b\u627e\u5165\u5e02\u51fa\u8ca8\u7684\u6642\u6a5f\u3002\u6211\u767c\u89ba\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u4e2d\u6587\u5a92\u9ad4\u7684\u8ca1\u7d93\u8a55\u8ad6\u54e1\uff0c\u5c6c\u65bc\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3e\u7684\u6709\u5982\u9cf3\u6bdb\u9e9f\u89d2\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7406\u5ff5\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u5f9e\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u57fa\u790e\u51fa\u767c\uff0c\u5c0d\u9999\u6e2f\u8b80\u8005\u76f8\u4fe1\u6703\u6709\u65b0\u9bae\u611f\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u6211\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u7e3e\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u5168\u56e0\u53bb\u5e74\u5e74\u5c3e\u898b\u4fc4\u570b\u6e96\u5099\u5165\u4fb5\u70cf\u514b\u862d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u53c8\u8a71\u4eca\u5e74\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4fbf\u628a\u6236\u53e3\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u8ce3\u51fa\uff0c\u8cb7\u5165\u9022\u6253\u4ed7\u5fc5\u5347\u7684\u9ec3\u91d1\u80a1\u3002\u518d\u770b\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u51fa\u53e3\u662f\u7926\u7522\u548c\u5c0f\u9ea5\uff0c\u8cb7\u5165\u4e00\u4e9b\u7926\u80a1\u548c\u7ce7\u98df\u80a1\u6295\u6a5f\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u6210\u7e3e\u6700\u597d\u7684\u662f\u5316\u80a5\u516c\u53f8NTR\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u767d\u4fc4\u548c\u4fc4\u570b\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u5316\u80a5\u51fa\u53e3\u570b\uff0c\u88ab\u5236\u88c1\u4ee4\u9019\u80a1\u7968\u5728\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u5927\u534770%\uff0c\u770b\u898b\u548c\u8ac7\u958b\u59cb\u6230\u722d\u5b8c\u7d50\u5728\u671b\uff0c\u4fbf\u5728\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u958b\u59cb\u5206\u6bb5\u51fa\u8ca8\u9396\u5b9a\u5229\u6f64\u3002\u53ef\u80fd\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u904b\u6c23\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u65e2\u7136\u8a8d\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u7b97\u662f\u6709\u9ede\u6295\u8cc7\u5fc3\u5f97\uff0c\u7d22\u6027\u5beb\u51fa\u4f86\u6574\u7406\u601d\u8003\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u6c92\u6709\u5206\u5c0d\u932f\uff0c\u53e3\u820c\u4e4b\u722d\u6c92\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u8cfa\u8755\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u624d\u662f\u771f\u5be6\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u7747\u5b8c\u767c\u89ba\u6211\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u932f\u6f0f\uff0c\u4e0d\u59a8\u63d0\u51fa\u4f86\u591a\u591a\u6307\u6559\uff0c\u4fee\u6b63\u6211\u7684\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u3002 Chris Cole\u7684Dragon Portfolio\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u6211\u5b8f\u89c0\u6d3e\u7684\u555f\u8499\u8001\u5e2b\uff0c\u8b93\u6211\u958b\u773c\u754c\u77e5\u9053\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u6709\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0d\u662f\u7092\u51fa\u7092\u5165\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u505a\u597d\u98a8\u96aa\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u5e73\u8861\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u985e\u8cc7\u7522\u90fd\u6709\u5176\u5347\u8dcc\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u4e92\u76f8\u88dc\u8db3\u5f9e\u800c\u4f4e\u8cb7\u9ad8\u8ce3\u3002\u91d1\u9322\u662f\u4e0d\u6703\u6d88\u5931\uff08\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff09\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u50cf\u6c34\u4e00\u6a23\u6d41\u4f86\u6d41\u53bb\u3002\u53ea\u770b\u80a1\u96bb\u683c\u50f9\u6578\u5b57\u7684\u5347\u8dcc\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u898b\u6a39\u4e0d\u898b\u6797\u7684\u7092\u8ce3\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u6355\u6349\u91d1\u9322\u6d41\u52d5\u7684\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u9806\u52e2\u800c\u884c\u624d\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u4e4b\u9053\u3002Dragon Portfolio\u628a\u8cc7\u7522\u5206\u70ba\u4e94\u500b\u985e\u5225\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u6839\u64da\u6211\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d93\u9a57\uff0c\u628a\u8cc7\u7522\u5206\u70ba\u4e5d\u5927\u7a2e\u985e\u3002 1. \u80a1\u7968 (Equity) \u80a1\u7968\u76f8\u4fe1\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u4e0d\u8b58\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u4ee5\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u7b49\u65bc\u8cb7\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u9664\u4e86\u80a1\u7968\u5916\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u4e0d\u540c\u7a2e\u985e\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u800c\u80a1\u7968\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7d71\u7a31\uff0c\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u4e2d\u6709ticker\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u5c6c\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u985e\u5225\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u800c\u8a00\u8cb7\u80a1\u7968\u5c31\u662f\u770b\u597d\u67d0\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u5f37\u52c1\u6709\u7a69\u5b9a\u80a1\u606f\u6d3e\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u9ad8\u589e\u9577\u80a1\u50f9\u6c34\u8139\u8239\u9ad8\u3002\u8cb7\u80a1\u7968\u4e0d\u80fd\u6c92\u6709\u57fa\u672c\u6d3e\u7684\u529f\u592b\uff0c\u67d0\u516c\u53f8\u524d\u666f\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u4e0d\u8b80\u5e74\u5831\uff0c\u4e5f\u8981\u4e0a\u53bb\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u7db2\u9801\u770b\u770b\u5427\u3002\u55ae\u770b\u5716\u8868\u7092\u4e0a\u7092\u843d\u4e0d\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u9023\u6295\u6a5f\u4e5f\u8aaa\u4e0d\u4e0a\uff0c\u90a3\u53ea\u662f\u8ced\u535a\u3002\u99ac\u5f8c\u70ae\u7684\u5716\u8868\u6d3e\u5341\u5206\u6e96\u78ba\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5716\u8868\u5927\u81f3\u4e0a\u6709\u5169\u7a2e\u756b\u6cd5\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0d\u662fmomentum trend\u5c31\u662frevert to mean\uff0c\u99ac\u5f8c\u70ae\u4e00\u5b9a\u53ef\u4ee5\u756b\u5f97\u4e2d\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u4f55\u6642\u8a72\u7528\u90a3\u4e00\u7a2e\u756b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u9760\u57fa\u672c\u6d3e\u7684\u529f\u592b\u53bb\u4f5c\u51faeducated guess\u4e86\u3002 2. \u50b5\u5238 (Bond) \u77e5\u9053\u8cb7\u50b5\u5238\u53ef\u4ee5\u6536\u606f\uff0c\u90a3\u662f\u521d\u7d1a\u6295\u8cc7\u73ed\u3002\u61c2\u5f97\u904b\u7528\u80a1\u7968\u50b5\u523860\/40\u7684risk parity portfolio\uff0c\u662f\u4e2d\u7d1a\u6295\u8cc7\u73ed\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u81ea1980\u5e74\u50b5\u606f\u7d93\u904e\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5f9e\u9ad8\u4f4d\u8dcc\u81f3\u96f6\uff0c\u8dcc\u7121\u53ef\u8dcc\uff0c\u50b5\u606f\u53ea\u6703\u4e0a\u4e0d\u6703\u843d\uff0c60\/40\u5df2\u5b8c\u5168\u5931\u6548\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u7e3d\u503c$50T\u9382\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5e02\u7e3d\u503c\u9ad8\u904e$50T\u9382\uff0c\u50b5\u5e02\u5176\u5be6\u5927\u904e\u80a1\u5e02\u3002\u800c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u6700\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u5229\u606f\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6574\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5229\u606f\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u9ad8\u7d1a\u73ed\u6709\u6559\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u4e43\u91d1\u9322\u7684\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u91d1\u9322\u662f\u6240\u6709\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u8981\u770b\u61c2\u5e02\u5834\u5fc5\u9700\u8981\u660e\u767d\u5229\u606f\u5982\u4f55\u904b\u4f5c\u3002\u50b5\u5e02\u535a\u5927\u7cbe\u6df1\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u80a1\u5e02\u98a8\u5411\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u500b\u9580\u5916\u6f22\uff0c\u7747\u904e\u5c11\u5c11\u66f8\u807d\u904e\u5c11\u5c11podcast\uff0c\u7c97\u7565\u77e5\u9053\u4e5c\u91ce\u4fc2reverse repo\uff0ceuro dollars\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u90a3\u4e9b\u5b57\u6bcd\u6e6f\uff0c\u77e5\u9053\u525b\u525b\u7684\u50b5\u606f\u5012\u639b\uff08yield curve inversion\uff09\u5c07\u6703\u597d\u5927\u944a\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u6b63\u81e8\u6025\u62b1\u4f5b\u8173\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u50b5\u606f\u5012\u639b\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u4e0b\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\u3002 3. \u73fe\u91d1 (Cash) \u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\u653e\u73fe\u91d1\u5728\u9280\u884c\u4e0d\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u63f8\u73fe\u91d1\u4e5f\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u9078\u9805\u3002\u5728\u76ee\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u592a\u591a\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d81\u9084\u6709\u7372\u5229\u6642\u653e\u8ca8\u6536\u6578\u888b\u9322\uff0c\u975c\u5019\u5165\u5e02\u6642\u6a5f\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5931\u70ba\u597d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u6211\u6703\u7528credit\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u53bb\u770b\u4f8d\u73fe\u91d1\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4f60\u96a8\u6642\u53ef\u4ee5\u52d5\u7528\u7684\u6d41\u52d5\u8cc7\u672c\uff0c\u501f\u9322\u4ffe\u5229\u606f\u548c\u73fe\u91d1\u653e\u9280\u884c\u5187\u606f\u6536\uff0c\u53ea\u662fcredit\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e00\u5e63\u5169\u9762\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u6211\u5728\u73a9\u4e86option\u548cmargin\u6236\u53e3\u5f8c\u7684\u9ad4\u6703\u3002\u5728\u4f4e\u606f\u7684\u5927\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5347\u503c\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u6bd4\u5229\u606f\u9ad8\uff0c\u501f\u9322\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0d\u5931\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u597d\u7b56\u7565\u300208\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\u6211\u505a\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u6bb5\u5f88\u9577\u6642\u9593\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u6709\u62b5\u62bc\u501f\u8cb8\u53ea\u662f1%\u5229\u606f\uff0c\u8cb7\u4e9b\u6709\u80a1\u606f\u7684\u7c43\u7c4c\u80a1\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u7576\u5e74\u662f\u6162\u725b\u5e02\uff0c\u800c\u501f\u9322\u6295\u8cc7\u5229\u606f\u53c8\u53ef\u4ee5\u6263\u7a05\uff0c\u69d3\u687f\u4e0b\u56de\u5831\u5341\u5206\u7406\u60f3\u3002\u7576\u7136\u59cb\u7d42\u662f\u501f\u9322\uff0c\u8981\u5c0f\u5fc3\u98a8\u96aa\u7ba1\u7406\u3002\u574a\u9593\u6709\u4e9b\u5bb3\u4eba\u4e0d\u6dfa\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u9280\u884c\u6236\u53e3\u4e2d\u8981\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u4e00\u5e74\u751f\u6d3b\u8cbb\u7684\u73fe\u91d1\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u51ac\u74dc\u8c46\u8150\u88ab\u4eba\u7092\u9b77\u7121\u9322\u958b\u98ef\u3002\u6211\u61f7\u7591\u9019\u662f\u6839\u672c\u9280\u884c\u7684\u9670\u8b00\uff0c\u8a98\u9a19\u5b58\u6236\u628a\u73fe\u91d1\u653e\u5728\u9280\u884c\u5187\u5229\u606f\u6536\u3002\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u662f\u5fc5\u9808\u6709\u4e00\u5e74\u751f\u6d3b\u8cbb\u7684line of credit\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u6709\u9700\u8981\u6642\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u52d5\u7528\uff0c\u628a\u73fe\u91d1\u62ff\u53bb\u6295\u8cc7\u8cfa\u53d6\u5229\u6f64\uff0c\u8db3\u5920\u627e\u501f\u9322\u7684\u5229\u606f\u6709\u9918\u3002 4. \u623f\u5730\u7522 (Real Estate) \u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u4eba\u4e00\u751f\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u662f\u9593\u5c4b\uff0c\u6a13\u50f9\u672a\u4f86\u6703\u5347\u5b9a\u8dcc\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u3002\u6a13\u50f9\u8aaa\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u4f9b\u6c42\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u4f9b\u6c42\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u5229\u606f\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u52d5\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u771f\u4fc2\u8981\u8acb\u6559\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u3002\u81ea\u5df1\u8cb7\u81ea\u5df1\u4f4f\u5176\u5be6\u6c92\u4e0d\u7b97\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u4f60\u6709\u79df\u5c4b\u6d25\u8cbc\u4e0d\u7136\u4e5f\u8981\u4ea4\u79df\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u770b\u9322\u7d66\u9280\u884c\u8cfa\u9084\u662f\u623f\u6771\u8cfa\u3002\u623f\u5c4b\u7684\u76f4\u6b63\u6295\u8cc7\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u5728\u65bc\u5411\u9280\u884c\u501f\u9322\u8cb8\u6b3e\u505a\u6309\u6b47\uff0c\u5148\u6d17\u672a\u4f86\u9322\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u69d3\u687f\u56de\u5831\u3002\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u570b\u72c2\u5370\u9280\u5e63\uff0c\u623f\u50f9\u96a8\u901a\u8139\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u53bb\u5e74\u505a\u4e86\u8d85\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u6309\u6b47\uff0c\u90a3\u4efd\u6309\u6b47\u5c07\u6703\u662f\u4f60\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u540c\u6e1b\u606f\u50b5\u5238\u5347\u503c\u7684\u539f\u7406\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u6709\u9592\u9322\u6709\u4eba\u559c\u6b61\u8cb7\u6a13\u6536\u79df\uff0c\u6015\u9ebb\u7169\u6c92\u6642\u9593\u53ef\u4ee5\u8acb\u5c08\u696d\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u4f46\u8cb7\u6a13\u8cc7\u91d1\u88ab\u9396\u6b7b\u4e0d\u6613\u5957\u73fe\uff0c\u597d\u8655\u662f\u5f37\u8feb\u4f60\u9577\u63f8\u4e0d\u6703\u7092\u51fa\u7092\u5165\uff0c\u58de\u8655\u662f\u8457\u8349\u8d70\u4eba\u5c31\u8981\u5288\u50f9\u8ce4\u8ce3\u3002\u5982\u679c\u770b\u597d\u623f\u5730\u7522\u5e02\u9053\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u60f3\u4fdd\u6301\u8cc7\u91d1\u52d5\u6d41\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9078\u64c7\u8cb7REIT\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u56de\u5831\u6bd4\u81ea\u5df2\u8cb7\u6a13\u6536\u79df\u52a0\u8acb\u7ba1\u7406\u76f8\u5dee\u7121\u6a5f\u3002 5. \u9ec3\u91d1 (Gold) \u4eba\u985e\u6b77\u53f2\u904e\u53bb\u4e94\u5343\u5e74\uff0c\u9ec3\u91d1\u5c31\u662f\u9322\uff0c\u9322\u5c31\u662f\u9ec3\u91d1\u3002\u81ea1971\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u5ba3\u544a\u9ec3\u91d1\u8207\u7f8e\u5143\u812b\u52fe\uff0c\u5c55\u958b\u7121\u9328\u8ca8\u5e63(fiat currency)\u9019\u500b\u53f2\u7121\u524d\u4f8b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5be6\u9a57\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8aaa\u9ec3\u91d1\u5df2\u7d93\u904e\u6642\uff0c\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u7528\u53c8\u6c92\u6709\u5229\u606f\u6536\u7684\u77f3\u982d\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u770b\u81ea1971\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u9ec3\u91d1\u8207\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u5169\u8005\u7684\u56de\u5831\u4e0d\u76f8\u4f2f\u4ef2\u3002\u82e5\u53ea\u8a08\u7b97\u672c\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u9ec3\u91d1\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u8dd1\u8d0f\u80a1\u5e02\u3002\u7576\u7136\u4f60\u6703\u6295\u8a22\u8aaa\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\uff0c\u5c08\u6311\u79d1\u7db2\u7206\u7834\u524d\u5915\u624d\u958b\u59cb\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u4f46\u4eca\u5929\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u4ee5\u9ec3\u91d1\u4f86\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u6bd42000\u5e74\u9084\u8981\u9ad8\u5440\u3002\u8981\u660e\u767d\u9ec3\u91d1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u8981\u5f9e\u5f88\u54f2\u5b78\u5f88\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u4f55\u8b02\u91d1\u9322\u958b\u59cb\u8b1b\u8d77\uff0c\u91d1\u9322\u53ea\u662f\u4fe1\u5fc3\u7684\u7522\u7269\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u8ab2\u672c\u4e0a\u6559\u91d1\u9322\u7684\u4e09\u52a0\u4e00\u500b\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u4e00\u8def\u8b1b\u5230\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\uff0ccounter 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