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Case for Gold &#8211; Ron Paul","author":"hevangel","date":"June 10, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u760b\u72c2\u5370\u9280\u7d19\u6258\u5e02\uff0c\u5f9e\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u5143\u8ca8\u5e63\u6703\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u5be6\u5728\u662f\u798d\u798f\u96e3\u6599\u3002\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u50cf08\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\uff0c\u4f4e\u606f\u4f4e\u901a\u6f32\u9ad8\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5341\u5e74\u5927\u725b\u5e02\uff0c\u4ea6\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u7f8e\u5143\u8cb6\u503c\u9ad8\u901a\u6f32\u91cd\u81e8\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u662f\u5f8c\u8005\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u904e\u53bb\u4e94\u516d\u5e74\u4e00\u76f4\u75b2\u5f31\u7684\u9ec3\u91d1\uff0c\u4fbf\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u5e45\u8dd1\u8d0f\u80a1\u5e02\u3002\u6211\u5011\u9019\u4e00\u4ee3\u9577\u5927\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5b78\u6821\u6559\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0d\u518d\u628a\u9ec3\u91d1\u8996\u4f5c\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u7121\u9328\u8ca8\u5e63\u59a8\u5f7f\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u8b49\u81ea\u660e\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5b9a\u5f8b\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u57281971\u5e74\u624d\u53d6\u6d88\uff0c\u7121\u9328\u8ca8\u5e63\u9019\u9805\u53f2\u7121\u524d\u4f8b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u5be6\u9a57\u300d\u624d\u4e0d\u904e\u4e94\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u6211\u4e0d\u8a8d\u70ba\u6703\u91cd\u56de\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u7576\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u570b\u7684\u592e\u884c\u8fd1\u5e74\u589e\u6301\u9ec3\u91d1\u5132\u5099\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5404\u570b\u4e0d\u65b7\u5370\u9280\u7d19\u7684\u5927\u8da8\u52e2\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u958b\u59cb\u5b78\u7fd2\u6295\u8cc7\u9ec3\u91d1\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u5c07\u4f86\u842c\u4e00\u51fa\u73fe\u7f8e\u5143\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u53ca\u6642\u8f49\u79fb\u8cc7\u7522\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4fdd\u96aa\u3002 \u8ca8\u5e63\u5236\u5ea6\u8207\u9ec3\u91d1\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u5c31\u662f\u5b78\u7fd2\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u660e\u767d\u5229\u606f\u901a\u6f32\uff0c\u9280\u884c\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u767c\u50b5\u8207\u8ca8\u5e63\u4f9b\u61c9\u7b49\u7b49\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u4e3b\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u652f\u6301\u7121\u9328\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u6211\u5927\u5b78\u6642\u6709\u4fee\u8b80\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\uff0c\u6709\u904e\u53bb\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u505a\u8b49\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u6211\u662f\u5f7f\u5229\u6c11\u7684\u4fe1\u5f92\uff0c\u662f\u6211\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u4e00\u76f4\u6df1\u4fe1\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7406\u8ad6\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u7576\u5e74\u5f7f\u5229\u6c11\u5927\u6168\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u9810\u8a08\u5230\uff0c\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u751a\u81f3\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u9055\u80cc\u57fa\u790e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u73fe\u50cf\uff0c\u8b93\u6211\u4e0d\u5f97\u8d70\u51fa\u5275\u9069\u5708\uff0c\u53bb\u5b78\u7fd2\u975e\u4e3b\u7d71\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u53bb\u89e3\u91cb\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u767c\u751f\u4e0d\u5408\u76f8\u7406\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u73fe\u50cf\u3002\u4eca\u6b21\u5148\u5b78\u7fd2\u6fb3\u5730\u5229\u5b78\u6d3e\uff08\u6bd4\u829d\u52a0\u5b78\u5b78\u6d3e\u66f4\u53f3\uff09\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u4e0b\u6b21\u8ad6\u5230\u65b0\u5de6\u6d3e\u7684\u73fe\u4ee3\u8ca8\u5e63\u7406\u8ad6(MMT)\u3002\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u6240\u6709\u95dc\u65bc\u9ec3\u91d1\u8207\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u7db2\u4e0a\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u90fd\u6703\u6307\u5411\u9019\u672c\u9ec3\u91d1\u5bf6\u5178\u300aThe Case for Gold\u300b\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u6211\u628a\u539f\u8457\u627e\u4f86\u95b1\u8b80\u3002 \u5148\u8aaa\u8aaa\u9019\u672c\u9ec3\u91d1\u5bf6\u5178\u7684\u4f86\u982d\uff0c71\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u7648\u9664\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u5236\u5ea6\u5f8c\uff0c\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5dee\u9ad8\u901a\u6f32\u7684stagflation\u5e74\u4ee3\u3002\u5217\u6839\u7576\u4e0a\u7e3d\u7d71\u5f8c\u65bc81\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u570b\u6703\u6210\u7acb\u9ec3\u91d1\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u6aa2\u8a0e\u7121\u9328\u8ca8\u5e63\u9019\u500b\u300c\u5be6\u9a57\u300d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5982\u4f55\u62ef\u6551\u7f8e\u570b\u9762\u81e8\u5d29\u6f70\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002\u9ec3\u91d1\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u6700\u5f8c\u64b0\u5beb\u6b63\u53cd\u96d9\u65b9\u5169\u4efd\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u4e00\u908a\u662f\u5f7f\u5229\u6c11\u548c\u592e\u884c\u884c\u9577Paul Volcker\u7684\u7121\u9328\u6d3e\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u908a\u773e\u8b70\u54e1Ron Paul\u70ba\u9996\u7684\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u6d3e\u3002\u6b77\u53f2\u7d50\u679c\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u77e5\uff0c\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u6d3e\u9810\u8a00\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u5d29\u6f70\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u4f86\u81e8\uff0cPaul Volcker\u7528\u8d85\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u58d3\u4f4e\u901a\u6f32\uff0c\u78ba\u7acb\u7f8e\u570b\u592e\u884c\u6642\u81f3\u4eca\u65e5\u4e00\u76f4\u5949\u884c\u7684\u4f4e\u901a\u6f32\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u300aThe Case for Gold\u300b\u5c31\u662f\u7576\u5e74\u570b\u6703\u9ec3\u91d1\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u6d3e\u7684\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u3002 \u82e5\u679c\u8b80\u8005\u60f3\u5f9e\u66f8\u4e2d\u627e\u51fa\u91cd\u56de\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u7684\u6709\u529b\u8ad6\u9ede\uff0c\u6050\u6015\u6703\u5927\u5931\u6240\u671b\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u505c\u5370\u9280\u7d19\u7684\u78ba\u4ee4\u8ca8\u5e63\u8cb6\u503c\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u8ca0\u50b5\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f46\u66f8\u4e2d\u9810\u8a00\u7121\u9328\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u7206\u7834\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u91d1\u50f9\u572871\u5e74\u8207\u7f8e\u5143\u812b\u920e\u6642\u662f$45\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u5df1\u7d93\u8d85\u904e$1700\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u7576\u5e74\u4e00\u679d\u53ef\u6a02\u4e94\u7f8e\u4ed9\uff0c\u4eca\u65e5\u5247\u8981\u5169\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u7576\u5e74\u4e00\u5b89\u58eb\u9ec3\u91d1\u53ef\u4ee5\u8cb7\u516b\u767e\u679d\u53ef\u6a02\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u4e00\u5b89\u58eb\u9ec3\u91d1\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u8cb7\u516b\u767e\u679d\u53ef\u6a5f\uff0c\u76f8\u5c0d\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u4e94\u5341\u5e74\u9593\u8cb6\u503c\u4e86\u56db\u5341\u500d\u3002\u7121\u9328\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u6700\u5927\u300c\u512a\u9ede\u300d\u662f\u8b93\u653f\u5e9c\u5bb9\u6613\u8209\u50b5\uff0c71\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca0\u50b5\u4f54GDP\u768431%\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5929\u5df1\u8d85\u904eGPD\u7684100%\u4e86\u3002 \u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6700\u7cbe\u5f69\u662f\u524d\u534a\u90e8\u4efd\uff0c\u8b1b\u8ff0\u7f8e\u570b\u7acb\u570b\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u6b77\u53f2\uff0c\u8b93\u8b80\u8005\u5927\u958b\u773c\u754c\u3002\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\u7acb\u570b\u982d\u4e00\u767e\u4e94\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6c92\u6709\u6cd5\u5b9a\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u8ca8\u5e63\u548c\u9280\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u591a\u59ff\u591a\u5f69\u4f86\u5f62\u5bb9\u3002\u6211\u5011\u719f\u6089\u7684\u4e00\u5f35\u5f35\u7da0\u8272\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8981\u7b49\u5230\u806f\u5132\u5c401914\u5e74\u6210\u7acb\u5f8c\u624d\u767c\u884c\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u4ee5\u524d\u7f8e\u570b\u4f7f\u7528\u91d1\u5e63\u9280\u5e63\u4f5c\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ea6\u6709\u9593\u4e2d\u6709\u79c1\u4eba\u9280\u884c\u767c\u884c\u53ef\u4ee5\u514c\u63db\u91d1\u548c\u9280\u7684\u7d19\u5e63\uff0c\u53ef\u60dc\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u767c\u884c\u7d19\u5e63\u90fd\u662f\u5927\u5e45\u8cb6\u503c\u7d93\u6fdf\u707d\u96e3\u6536\u5834\u3002\u6b65\u5165\u4e8c\u5341\u4e16\u7d00\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca8\u5e63\u6f14\u8b8a\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u6230\u6642\u66fe\u4e2d\u6b62\u7d19\u5e63\u5c0d\u9ec3\u91d1\u514c\u63db\uff0c\u523030\u5e74\u4ee3\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\u6642\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u5145\u516c\u570b\u6c11\u64c1\u6709\u7684\u9ec3\u91d1\uff0c\u4f86\u634d\u885b\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u532f\u7387\u3002\u4e8c\u6230\u5f8c\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u570b\u9678\u7e7c\u653e\u68c4\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u8cb8\u5e63\uff0c\u6539\u8207\u7f8e\u5143\u639b\u52fe\u7684Bretton Woods\u532f\u7387\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u7d42\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u4e5f\u9802\u4e0d\u4f4f\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u7684\u5347\u503c\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u5c3c\u514b\u905c\u5ba3\u544a\u53d6\u6d88\u7f8e\u5143\u5c0d\u9ec3\u91d1\u514c\u63db\u7684\u627f\u8afe\uff0c\u8b93\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u532f\u7387\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5f9e\u6b64\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u53ea\u6709\u81ea\u7531\u6d6e\u52d5\u7684\u7121\u9328\u8ca8\u5e63\u3002 \u9ec3\u91d1\u4f5c\u70ba\u8ca8\u5e63\u6709\u4e94\u5343\u5e74\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\uff0c\u662f\u6700\u80fd\u62b5\u6297\u98a8\u96aa\u4fdd\u503c\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7522\u54c1\u3002\u524d\u7f8e\u570b\u592e\u884c\u884c\u9577\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u66fe\u8aaa\u904e\uff0c\u300c\u53ea\u6709\u9ec3\u91d1\u624d\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7121\u9328\u8ca8\u5e63\u5305\u62ec\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u6bd4\u5ab2\u300d\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6211\u770b\u4e0d\u5230\u4efb\u4f55\u80fd\u5a01\u8105\u7f8e\u5143\u5168\u7403\u5132\u5099\u8ca8\u5e63\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u679c\u4e16\u754c\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u771f\u7684\u7206\u767c\u8ca8\u5e63\u6230\u722d\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u79e9\u5e8f\u91cd\u65b0\u6d17\u724c\uff0c\u9ec3\u91d1\u5c07\u6703\u662f\u5404\u570b\u592e\u884c\u7684\u6700\u7d42\u6b66\u5668\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u5404\u570b\u592e\u884c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u4fdd\u7559\u9ec3\u91d1\u5132\u5099\u4f5c\u4fdd\u96aa\uff0c\u9ec3\u91d1\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6700\u80fd\u62b5\u6297\u7d19\u5e63\u8cb6\u503c\u7684\u5132\u84c4\u5de5\u5177\u3002","rel":"","context":"In &quot;\u6295\u8cc7\u8ced\u535a&quot;","block_context":{"text":"\u6295\u8cc7\u8ced\u535a","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_market\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/811jOI3xc3L.jpg?fit=812%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/811jOI3xc3L.jpg?fit=812%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/811jOI3xc3L.jpg?fit=812%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/811jOI3xc3L.jpg?fit=812%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":14204,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2020\/08\/31\/the-deficit-myth-stephanie-kelton\/","url_meta":{"origin":14145,"position":1},"title":"The Deficit Myth &#8211; Stephanie Kelton (\u8d64\u5b57\u8ff7\u601d)","author":"hevangel","date":"August 31, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u300c\u73fe\u4ee3\u8ca8\u5e63\u7406\u8ad6\u300d(Modern Monetary Theory, MMT)\u88ab\u4e3b\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u7570\u7aef\u90aa\u8aaa\uff0c\u5b83\u4e3b\u5f35\u653f\u5e9c\u61c9\u8a72\u5927\u5e45\u767c\u50b5\u589e\u52a0\u958b\u652f\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002\u65b0\u805e\u5e38\u807d\u7f8e\u570b\u6b50\u76df\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u5e9c\u5168\u90fd\u50b5\u53f0\u9ad8\u7bc9\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6703\u544a\u8a22\u4f60\u50b5\u591a\u4e0d\u662f\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u9084\u50b5\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u5f37\u52c1\u5c31\u842c\u4e8b\u5927\u5409\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u4f5c\u8005Stephanie Kelton\u65e9\u5e7e\u5e74\u9084\u662f\u540d\u4e0d\u7d93\u50b3\u7684\u4e8c\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u8fd1\u5e74MMT\u9019\u53e6\u985e\u7d93\u6fdf\u7406\u8ad6\u958b\u59cb\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u5979\u8eab\u70ba\u958b\u8352\u725b\u4ea6\u5347\u4e0a\u795e\u67b1\uff0c\u8207\u4e00\u773e\u8457\u540d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\u5e73\u8d77\u5e73\u5750\u3002\u4ee5\u524d\u4e3b\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\u5c0d\u300c\u73fe\u4ee3\u8ca8\u5e63\u7406\u8ad6\u300d\u55e4\u4e4b\u4ee5\u9f3b\uff0c\u9023\u8faf\u8ad6\u53cd\u99c1\u4e5f\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u6d6a\u8cbb\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u524e\u6709\u4ecb\u4e8b\u822c\u7684\u537b\u56b4\u9663\u4ee5\u5f85\uff0c\u53ef\u898bMMT\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u3002 \u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e0d\u662f\u56b4\u7dca\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8853\u8ad6\u6587\uff0c\u662fStephanie Kelton\u6df1\u5165\u6dfa\u51fa\u5730\u70ba\u4e00\u822c\u8b80\u8005\u4ecb\u7d39MMT\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u5c64\u5c64\u63a8\u8ad6\u5f15\u5c0e\u8b80\u8005\u53bb\u601d\u8003\u73fe\u4eca\u793e\u6703\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u5165\u9580\u66f8\uff0c\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u7db2\u4e0a\u6279\u8a55MMT\u7684\u8072\u97f3\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u53cd\u5c04\u689d\u4ef6\u5730\u53cd\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u7121\u9650\u8209\u50b5\uff0c\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u91dd\u5c0dMMT\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5167\u554f\u984c\u3002\u6211\u81ea\u8a8d\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u601d\u60f3\u5c6c\u65bc\u53f3\u6d3e\uff0c\u6df1\u53d7\u4f5b\u5229\u6c11\u548c\u5967\u5730\u5229\u5b78\u6d3e\u555f\u8499\uff0c\u4f46\u7adf\u7136\u80fd\u5920\u5168\u76e4\u63a5\u53d7MMT\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u6211\u4e3b\u8981\u53cd\u5c0dStephanie Kelton\u5728\u6838\u5fc3\u7406\u8ad6\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u7533\u5ef6\u61c9\u7528\u3002MMT\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u80fd\u5438\u5f15\u9019\u9ebc\u591a\u4eba\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u7406\u8ad6\u6b63\u597d\u89e3\u91cb\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u548c\u6b50\u65e5\u592e\u884c\u7684\u7121\u9650\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u73fe\u5be6\u9762\u524d\uff0c\u50b3\u7d71\u4e3b\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u7406\u8ad6\u660e\u986f\u6709\u4e0d\u8db3\u4e4b\u8655\u3002 MMT\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u7406\u8ad6\u5f88\u7c21\u55ae\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u4ee5\u767c\u9214\u5370\u9280\u7d19\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u570b\u50b5\u4e0d\u80fd\u8207\u4e00\u822c\u500b\u4eba\u6216\u516c\u53f8\u50b5\u52d9\u76f8\u63d0\u4e26\u8ad6\u3002\u570b\u50b5\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u50b5\u52d9\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u7a2e\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u606f\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u767c\u50b5\u5c31\u662f\u589e\u52a0\u8ca8\u5e63\u4f9b\u61c9\uff0c\u8ca8\u5e63\u4f9b\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u7528\u64d4\u5fc3\u50b5\u52d9\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u653f\u5e9c\u6c38\u9060\u4e0d\u6703\u9084\u4e0d\u8d77\u9322\uff0c\u9280\u7d19\u53ea\u8981\u5370\u51fa\u4f86\u5c31\u6709\u4e86\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u552f\u4e00\u9700\u8981\u64d4\u5fc3\u7684\u554f\u984c\u53ea\u662f\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\uff0c\u8ca8\u5e63\u4f9b\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\u8d85\u51fa\u5be6\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u3002MMT\u597d\u50cf\u4e3b\u7d71\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u4e00\u9762\u93e1\u5b50\uff0c\u628a\u6574\u500b\u8ca8\u5e63\u4f9b\u61c9\u7684\u53cd\u8f49\u904e\u4f86\uff0c\u800c\u908f\u8f2f\u4e0a\u4f9d\u7136\u80fd\u5920\u8aaa\u5f97\u901a\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u662f\u5148\u6536\u7a05\u7136\u5f8c\u624d\u6709\u9322\u53bb\u7528\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u5148\u628a\u9322\u5370\u51fa\u4f86\u8b93\u4eba\u6c11\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7528\u7a05\u6536\u70ba\u9322\u8ce6\u8207\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee5\u7a05\u6536\u4f86\u63a7\u5236\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7a05\u6536\u5c31\u662f\u8ca8\u5e63\u5f9e\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\u6e1b\u5c11\u3002 \u7576\u7406\u89e3\u570b\u50b5\u3001\u7a05\u6536\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u958b\u652f\u7684\u65b0\u95dc\u4fc2\u5f8c\uff0cStephanie Kelton\u5728\u9019\u500b\u6846\u67b6\u5167\u63d0\u51fa\u5979\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7406\u5ff5\u3002\u5979\u5728\u5967\u5df4\u99ac\u4e16\u4ee3\u66f4\u7576\u570b\u6703\u7d93\u6fdf\u9867\u554f\uff0c\u5979\u6279\u8a55\u570b\u6703\u9810\u7b97\u6848\u7684\u6279\u8a55\u5012\u4e5f\u4e2d\u80af\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u5c31\u5e38\u5e38\u60f3\u524a\u6e1b\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u5c31\u5e38\u5e38\u60f3\u52a0\u7a05\uff0c\u6e90\u65bc\u5169\u9ee8\u90fd\u8aa4\u89e3\u570b\u5bb6\u8ca1\u653f\u8981\u76e1\u5165\u70ba\u51fa\u3002\u524a\u6e1b\u958b\u652f\u548c\u52a0\u7a05\u90fd\u662f\u6e1b\u5c11\u8ca8\u5e63\u4f9b\u61c9\uff0c\u5728\u975e\u5168\u6c11\u5c31\u696d\u793e\u6703\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u589e\u9577\u7a7a\u9593\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u524a\u6e1b\u958b\u652f\u6216\u52a0\u7a05\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u6700\u6709\u6548\u7387\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u9322\u662f\u82b1\u80fd\u4fc3\u9032\u751f\u7522\u529b\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0a\uff0c\u5982\u6559\u80b2\u3001\u79d1\u7814\u3001\u57fa\u5efa\u7b49\uff0c\u570b\u5bb6\u8ca1\u653f\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u61c9\u6d17\u5247\u6d17\u3002\u5979\u63d0\u51fa\u7531\u653f\u5e9c\u5305\u5e95\u7684\u5168\u6c11\u5c31\u696d\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u4eba\u4eba\u6709\u5de5\u8fd4\u751f\u6d3b\u6709\u5c0e\u56b4\u6700\u4f4e\u5de5\u8cc7\uff0c\u807d\u8d77\u4f86\u5f88\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u7684\u53f3\u6d3e\u89f8\u89ba\u544a\u8a22\u6211\uff0c\u9019\u985e\u5927\u653f\u5e9c\u653f\u7b56\u6700\u7d42\u90fd\u662f\u6d6a\u8cbb\u751f\u7522\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u5979\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u53ea\u63cf\u5beb\u7f8e\u597d\u7684\u4e00\u9762\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u6709\u8da3\u662fMMT\u53cd\u5c0d\u5168\u6c11\u6700\u4f4e\u6536\u5165(Universal Basic Income, UBI)\uff0cUBI\u7684\u672c\u8cea\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u7528\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e5f\u6709\u9322\u6536\uff0c\u5373\u662f\u6d6a\u8cbb\u4e86\u793e\u6703\u4e2d\u53ef\u904b\u7528\u751f\u7522\u529b\uff0c\u8207MMT\u5168\u6c11\u5c31\u696d\u6700\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u529b\u7684\u7406\u5ff5\u80cc\u9053\u800c\u99b3\u3002 \u53ef\u80fd\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u53ea\u662f\u5165\u9580\u7d1a\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u82b1\u592a\u591a\u7bc7\u5e45\u8b1bMMT\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u51fa\u73fe\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u6642\u6703\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5c0d\u7b56\uff0c\u6703\u4e0d\u6703\u5f15\u8d77\u96ea\u7403\u6548\u61c9\u60e1\u5316\u70ba\u8d9f\u901a\u8139(Hyperinflaction)\uff0c\u5979\u53ea\u662f\u5f37\u8abf\u96d6\u7136\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4f46\u8ddd\u96e2\u6700\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u529b\u9084\u6709\u4e00\u6bb5\u5f88\u9577\u7684\u8ddd\u96e2\uff0c\u800c\u5f9e\u96f6\u516b\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u4ee5\u4f86\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684QE\u653f\u7b56\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u8ad6\u9ede\u4e5f\u5341\u5206\u6709\u8aaa\u670d\u529b\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u66f8\u4e2d\u4e5f\u6709\u8ac7\u8ad6\u5230MMT\u548c\u5c0d\u5916\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u5979\u8aaa\u6211\u5011\u62ff\u5370\u51fa\u7684\u9280\u7d19\uff0c\u53bb\u548c\u5916\u570b\u63db\u53d6\u771f\u5be6\u7684\u8ca8\u7269\u548c\u670d\u52d9\u662f\u767d\u8cfa\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u770b\u4e0d\u61c2\u5979\u8aaa\u5916\u8cbf\u8d64\u6c92\u554f\u984c\u7684\u63a8\u8ad6\uff0c\u6211\u7e3d\u89ba\u5f97\u5979\u7684\u63a8\u8ad6\u5c11\u4e86\u4e00\u584a\u62fc\u5716\uff0c\u5979\u4ea6\u6c92\u6709\u660e\u8a00\u652f\u6301\u8cbf\u6613\u4fdd\u8b77\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6216\u7d93\u6fdf\u81ea\u7d66\u81ea\u8db3\u3002 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&quot;\u653f\u6cbb\u7d93\u6fdf&quot;","block_context":{"text":"\u653f\u6cbb\u7d93\u6fdf","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_society\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/715Ez14UtL.jpg?fit=774%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/715Ez14UtL.jpg?fit=774%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/715Ez14UtL.jpg?fit=774%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/715Ez14UtL.jpg?fit=774%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4869,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2010\/11\/17\/%e9%87%91%e9%8c%a2%e7%9a%84%e6%95%85%e4%ba%8b-the-ascent-of-money-%e2%80%93-niall-ferguson\/","url_meta":{"origin":14145,"position":2},"title":"\u91d1\u9322\u7684\u6545\u4e8b The Ascent of Money \u2013 Niall Ferguson","author":"hevangel","date":"November 17, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"\u4e0a\u6b21\u53bb\u5370\u5ea6\u6642\u8cb7\u4e86\u9019\u672c\u300a\u91d1\u9322\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u300b\ufe50\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u95b1\u8b80\u9032\u5ea6\u751a\u6162\ufe50\u6642\u9694\u534a\u5e74\u53c8\u56de\u5230\u5370\u5ea6\u51fa\u5dee\ufe50\u624d\u6709\u6642\u9593\u8b80\u5168\u672c\u66f8\u5beb\u66f8\u8a55\u3002\u96d6\u6709\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u540d\u7a31\u8aaa\u662f\u95dc\u65bc\u91d1\u9322\ufe50\u6b63\u78ba\u9ede\u4f86\u8aaa\u662f\u95dc\u4fc2\u91d1\u878d\u9ad4\u4fc2\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u662f\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u6559\u6388\ufe50\u61c9PBS\u96fb\u8996\u53f0\u9080\u8acb\ufe50\u62cd\u651d\u8b1b\u8ff0\u91d1\u878d\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u8a18\u9304\u7bc0\u76ee\u3002\u96fb\u8996\u7bc0\u76ee\u53eb\u597d\u53eb\u5ea7\ufe50\u4f5c\u8005\u4ea6\u9806\u52e2\u628a\u7bc0\u76ee\u5167\u5bb9\u6574\u7406\u51fa\u66f8\ufe50\u516d\u96c6\u7bc0\u76ee\u8b8a\u70ba\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u516d\u7ae0\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u5f9e\u96fb\u8996\u7bc0\u76ee\u6539\u7bc7\u6210\u66f8\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\ufe50\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u8b80\u8d77\u4f86\u5341\u5206\u5bb9\u6613\ufe50\u4e0d\u904e\u5167\u5bb9\u5247\u53d7\u539f\u88dd\u96fb\u8996\u7bc0\u76ee\u7d50\u69cb\u7684\u9650\u5236\ufe50\u6bcf\u4e00\u7ae0\u4e5f\u662f\u500b\u7368\u7acb\u55ae\u5143\ufe50\u8b80\u8d77\u4f86\u7f3a\u4e4f\u9023\u8cab\u6027\u3002\u5167\u5bb9\u70ba\u9077\u5c31\u96fb\u8996\u89c0\u773e\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\ufe50\u52a0\u5165\u5f88\u591a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u6545\u4e8b\ufe50\u4f46\u524d\u56e0\u5f8c\u679c\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u5206\u6790\u5247\u76f8\u5c0d\u8f03\u5f31\u3002 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\u6700\u5f8c\u4f5c\u8005\u53cd\u554f\u300c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u70ba\u6211\u5011\u5e36\u4f86\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7684\u7f8e\u9e97\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u300d\uff0c\u300c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u653f\u5e9c\u6551\u5e02\u4e0d\u6551\u4eba\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u7533\u8acb\u7834\u7522\u4fdd\u8b77\uff0c\u9ad8\u5c64\u4eba\u54e1\u9084\u53ef\u7372\u5de8\u984d\u85aa\u91d1\u548c\u82b1\u7d05\u300d\uff0c\u300c\u6211\u5011\u70ba\u4f55\u6703\u8b93\u793e\u6703\u767c\u5c55\u5230\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u500b\u5730\u6b65\u300d\u3002\u4e0a\u4e00\u7ae0\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df2\u624d\u8aaa\u904e\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5c0d\u53cd\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u6551\u5e02\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u5f15\u81f4\u9053\u5fb7\u98a8\u96aa(moral hazard)\uff0c\u9019\u7b46\u7cca\u5857\u8cec\u600e\u6a23\u4e5f\u4e0d\u61c9\u7b97\u5230\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u982d\u4e0a\u4f86\u5427\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u8981\u56de\u7b54\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u793e\u6703\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6703\u767c\u5c55\u9019\u4e00\u500b\u5730\u6b65\uff0c\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u5de6\u6d3e\u907a\u7559\u7684\u9918\u6bd2\u9084\u672a\u5fb9\u5e95\u6e05\u9664\u3002\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u6b21\u6309\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u800c\u6b21\u6309\u7684\u6e90\u982d\u6b63\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9810\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u8981\u5169\u623f\u9054\u6210\u4eba\u4eba\u6709\u5c4b\u4f4f\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4efb\u52d9\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u8ca8\u6b3e\u4eba\u662f\u5426\u8db3\u5920\u9084\u50b5\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u786c\u751f\u751f\u628a\u9055\u7d04\u98a8\u96aa\u6ce8\u5165\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u6f14\u8b8a\u6210\u50b3\u70b8\u5f48\u904a\u6232\u3002 \u7ae0\u672a\u4f5c\u8005\u4ecb\u7d39\u300c\u99ac\u592a\u6548\u61c9\u300d\u548c\u300c\u8ca7\u7aae\u9677\u9631\u300d\uff0c\u60f3\u8aaa\u670d\u8b80\u8005\u5e02\u5834\u5fc5\u7136\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u300c\u5bcc\u8005\u8d8a\u5bcc\uff0c\u8ca7\u8005\u8d8a\u8ca7\u300d\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5927\u8a71\u6015\u8a08\u6578\uff0c\u6211\u4f8b\u8209\u5169\u500b\u6b77\u53f2\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u9577\u9060\u800c\u8a00\u300c\u99ac\u592a\u6548\u61c9\u300d\u4e26\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u9053\u74ca\u65af\u5de5\u696d\u6307\u6578\u4e09\u5341\u96bb\u6210\u5206\u80a1\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u6700\u6709\u9322\u7684\u5927\u4f01\u696d\uff0c1970\u5e74\u5230\u73fe\u572840\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e94\u9593\u516c\u53f8\u4ecd\u7136\u7559\u5728\u6307\u6578\u5167\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u516c\u53f8\u7121\u5f97\u7559\u5e95\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u66f4\u52a0\u7834\u7522\u6536\u5834\u3002\u963f\u6839\u5ead\u65bc1900\u5e74\u6642\uff0c\u66fe\u7d93\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5341\u5f37\uff0c\u4eba\u5747GPD\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u63a5\u8fd1\u7f8e\u570b\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u963f\u6839\u5ead\u5247\u6dea\u70ba\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u570b\u5bb6\u3002\u53cd\u89c0\u4e9e\u6d32\u5404\u570b\u5982\u65e5\u672c\uff0c\u5357\u97d3\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7b49\uff0c\u5f9e\u4e00\u7aae\u4e8c\u767d\u5230\u6649\u9032\u767c\u9054\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u884c\u5217\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u53ef\u898b\u6709\u9322\u53ef\u4ee5\u56e0\u70ba\u5931\u8aa4\u800c\u8b8a\u6210\u7121\u9322\uff0c\u7121\u9322\u7684\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6191\u9032\u6b65\u5f8c\u4f86\u8ffd\u4e0a\uff0c\u9019\u4fbf\u662f\u5275\u9020\u6027\u6bc0\u6ec5(creative destruction)\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002 \u7b2c\u56db\u7ae0\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u5316\u8836\u98df\u793e\u6703\u50f9\u503c \u9019\u4e00\u7ae0\u8f49\u800c\u6279\u8a55\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u4f5c\u8005\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5c0d\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e2d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u8aa4\u89e3\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u8aaa \u5982\u679c\u300c\u4e00\u500b\u9858\u8cb7\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u9858\u8ce3\u300d\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u5c31\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u793e\u6703\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u90a3\u7e3b\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7d55\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u793e\u6703\u90fd\u4e0d\u8a31\u8ce3\u8840\uff0c\u8ce3\u5668\u5b98\uff0c\u8ce3\u6deb\uff0c\u8ce3\u6bd2\u54c1\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5b78\u4f4d\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5b98\u8077\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5b50\u5973\uff0c\u300c\u8ce3\u8eab\u846c\u7236\u300d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u8a31\u8ce3\u300c\u9ec3\u725b\u98db\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u5f7c\u6b64\u4f60\u60c5\u6211\u9858\u7684\u9ad8\u5229\u8ca8\uff0c\u5305\u652c\u8a34\u8a1f\uff0c\u91d1\u5b57\u5854\u5f0f\u63a8\u92b7\u7b49\uff0c\u5728\u7d55\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u570b\u5bb6\u90fd\u88ab\u5217\u70ba\u975e\u6cd5\uff1f\u5f88\u660e\u986f\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u4ea4\u6613\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u51cc\u99d5\u65bc\u793e\u6703\u50f9\u503c\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u6289\u64c7\u4e4b\u4e0a \u9996\u5148\u8981\u6f84\u6e05\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u6703\u8a8d\u540c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6240\u8b02\u8cb7\u8ce3\u662f\u81ea\u7531\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u4f86\u81ea\u5eb7\u5fb7\u7684\u9053\u5fb7\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u8981\u5c0a\u91cd\u634d\u885b\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u5c0a\u56b4\u3002\u8ce3\u8840\uff0c\u8ce3\u5668\u8840\uff0c\u8ce3\u5b50\u5973\uff0c\u8ce3\u8eab\u846c\u7236\u7b49\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u9055\u53cd\u4eba\u6b0a\u628a\u4eba\u985e\u8cb6\u70ba\u8ca8\u7269\uff0c\u8207\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u885d\u7a81\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e2d\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u5fc5\u9700\u4ee5\u5408\u7d04\u7cbe\u795e\u548c\u8aa0\u4fe1\u70ba\u5927\u524d\u984c\uff0c\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u529f\u7528\uff0c\u4fbf\u662f\u76e3\u7763\u4eba\u6c11\u5c65\u884c\u5408\u7d04\u7684\u7fa9\u52d9\u3002\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5b78\u4f4d\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5b98\u8077\uff0c\u7092\u9ec3\u725b\u98db\uff0c\u9ad8\u5229\u8ca8\uff0c\u5305\u652c\u8a34\u8a1f\uff0c\u91d1\u5b57\u5854\u5f0f\u63a8\u92b7\u7b49\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u53cd\u5c0d\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u884c\u70ba\u542b\u6709\u6b3a\u9a19\u6216\u9055\u7d04\u6210\u4efd\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u5b97\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6bd2\u54c1\u4e0d\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u5176\u4ed6\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u793e\u6703\u554f\u984c\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u672c\u8eab\u4e26\u4e0d\u652f\u6301\u6216\u53cd\u5c0d\u8ce3\u6bd2\u54c1\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u7981\u4e0d\u7981\u6bd2\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u793e\u6703\u6210\u672c\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u8ce3\u6deb\u561b\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u5b8c\u5168\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u897f\u65b9\u81ea\u7531\u793e\u6703\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u9999\u6e2f\uff0c\u8ce3\u6deb\u662f\u5408\u6cd5\u7684\uff0c\u72af\u6cd5\u7684\u53ea\u662f\u626f\u76ae\u689d\u3002 \u63a5\u8457\u9019\u7ae0\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6279\u8a55\u5e02\u5834\u5316\uff0c\u8aaa\u300c\u5e02\u5834\u5316\u672c\u8eab\u66f4\u662f\u56b4\u91cd\u5730\u8836\u98df\u8457\u4eba\u969b\u9593\u7684\u502b\u7406\u95dc\u4fc2\u4ee5\u53ca\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u793e\u7fa4\u50f9\u503c\u300d\uff0c\u4e26\u8209\u51fa\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u8a17\u5152\u6240\u5c0d\u9072\u5230\u63a5\u5b50\u5973\u7684\u5bb6\u9577\u5f15\u5165\u7f70\u6b3e\u4f5c\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u9019\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\u5728Predictably Irrational\u4e00\u66f8\u4e2d\u6211\u4e5f\u6709\u770b\u904e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u628a\u9019\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u5316\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u672a\u514d\u904e\u4efd\u806f\u60f3\u3002\u9019\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u6307\u51fa\u4eba\u8166\u5206\u70ba\u611f\u6027\u548c\u7406\u6027\u5169\u500b\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u601d\u8003\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u5f97\u51fa\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u985e\u975e\u7406\u6027\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\uff0c\u65e9\u5df2\u6649\u8eab\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6Maurice Allais\u66f4\u6191\u6b64\u7372\u5f97\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u734e\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u719f\u6089\u884c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u5169\u8005\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f8\u5bb9\u5171\u8655\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u5f71\u97ff\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u67b6\u69cb\u3002 \u6700\u5f8c\u4f5c\u8005\u518d\u4e00\u6b21\u6253\u7a3b\u8349\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u6279\u8a55\u6d88\u8cbb\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u8aaa\u300c\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5341\u8db3\u5947\u602a\u7684\u672c\u672b\u5012\u7f6e\u300d\uff0c\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u4e5f\u6703\u8a8d\u540c\u9019\u756a\u8aaa\u8a71\u3002\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u4fbf\u662f\u7d2f\u7a4d\u8cc7\u672c\u53bb\u589e\u52a0\u751f\u7522\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u503c\u50f9\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u4e3b\u7fa9\u537b\u53cd\u884c\u5176\u9053\u628a\u9322\u82b1\u6389\uff0c\u4e0d\u77e5\u4f55\u89e3\u4f5c\u8005\u628a\u6d88\u8cbb\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7b97\u5230\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u982d\u4e0a\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u4ed6\u53c8\u8aaa\uff1a \u6309\u7167\u300c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\u7684\u4e3b\u5c0e\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5927\u53ef\u5c07\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u516c\u5712\u3001\u5716\u66f8\u9928\u3001\u535a\u7269\u9928\u3001\u90f5\u653f\u5c40\u3001\u6c34\u52d9\u8655\u3001\u6d88\u9632\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u6551\u50b7\u8eca\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u6c23\u50cf\u670d\u52d9\u7b49\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u3002\u6240\u6709\u570b\u5bb6\u5176\u81f3\u4e0d\u518d\u9700\u8981\u8b66\u5bdf\u548c\u8ecd\u968a\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7dad\u6301\u6cbb\u5b89\u53ef\u7531\u4fdd\u5b89\u516c\u53f8\u8ca0\u8cac\u3001\u570b\u9632\u5247\u53ef\u7531\u50f1\u50ad\u5175\u8ca0\u8cac\u3002\u5f9e\u7d93\u6fdf\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u9019\u4e9b\u8f49\u8b8a\u80af\u5b9a\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6548\u76ca\u300d\u3002 \u54a6~ \u9019\u7ae0\u958b\u9996\u4e0d\u624d\u525b\u525b\u8aaa\u904e\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u670d\u52d9\u662f\u516c\u7528\u54c1(public goods)\uff0c\u7531\u653f\u5e9c\u4f86\u505a\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7387\u55ce\uff1f\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u53ef\u4e5f\u767e\u4efd\u767e\u8a8d\u540c\u9019\u9ede\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8c48\u4e0d\u662f\u81ea\u6253\u5634\u5df4\uff1f\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u63d0\u51fa\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u7684\u6700\u5927\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u662f\u5982\u679c\u6709\u4e9b\u670d\u52d9\u5e02\u5834\u7af6\u722d\u6bd4\u653f\u5e9c\u5305\u8fa6\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u4fbf\u61c9\u8a72\u8b93\u5e02\u5834\u4f86\u505a\uff0c\u4f46\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5f9e\u4f86\u6c92\u6709\u8aaa\u904e\u6240\u6709\u653f\u5e9c\u670d\u52d9\u4e5f\u8981\u79c1\u71df\u5316\u554a\u3002\u518d\u8aaa\u591a\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u7121\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3002 \u9019\u7ae0\u5f8c\u9762\u7684\u5c0f\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u7528\u6700\u5f8c\u901a\u789f\u904a\u6232(Utlimatum Game)\uff0c\u8aaa\u7406\u6027\u7684\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u4eba\u300d\u61c9\u8a72\u8b93\u4eba\u5bb6\u62ff\u4e5d\u5341\u4e5d\u5143\u63a5\u53d7\u4e00\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u62cd\u5169\u6563\u4ee4\u5927\u5bb6\u4e5f\u6c92\u9322\u62ff\uff0c\u53bb\u8b49\u660e\u4eba\u985e\u6709\u516c\u5e73\u4e4b\u5fc3\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4f5c\u8005\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u8b80\u904e\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6(Game Theory)\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u7121\u4ec7\u5831\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u904e\u904a\u6232single shot game\uff0c\u4f46\u73fe\u5be6\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u4e00\u6b21\u904e\u904a\u6232\u4e26\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u904a\u6232\u90fd\u662f\u91cd\u8986\u904a\u6232(repeated game)\u3002\u5728\u91cd\u8986\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u62cd\u5169\u6563\u662f\u8feb\u5c0d\u624b\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c40\u5c31\u7bc4\u7684\u6700\u597d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4eba\u8166\u5c31\u6703\u4f5c\u51fa\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002\u518d\u8005\u5c31\u7b97\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u904e\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\uff0c\u8b93\u5c0d\u624b\u77e5\u9053\u4f60\u6709\u4e00\u62cd\u5169\u6563\u7684\u6c7a\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u9632\u6b62\u4ed6\u4e82\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u597d\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u8aaa\u7406\u6027\u7d93\u6fdf\u4eba\u8ffd\u6c42\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5316\u592a\u904e\u77ed\u8996\u4e86\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u7406\u6027\u7d93\u6fdf\u4eba\u8ffd\u6c42\u7684\u662f\u9577\u9060\u6548\u76ca\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5316\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e94\u7ae0\uff1a\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6307\u6a19 \u4f5c\u8005\u8aaa\u8981\u53cd\u8f49\u4e3b\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\uff0c\u9019\u7ae0\u6307\u51faGDP(Gross Domestic Product)\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u4e3b\u6d41\u7684\u5e38\u8b58\uff0c\u4e2d\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u8ab2\u6216\u8a31\u6c92\u6709\u6559\uff0c\u5927\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u8ab2\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u8b1b\u53caGDP\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u3002\u9019\u7ae0\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u5168\u7121\u554f\u984c\u5341\u5206\u6b63\u8def\uff0cGDP\u7684\u4e14\u800c\u78ba\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u72f9\u9698\u548c\u504f\u9817\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u300d\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u91cf\u5ea6\u4e00\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e00\u5e74\u5167\u7684\u82b1\u8cbb\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u6c92\u6709\u53cd\u6620\u5176\u4ed6\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5982\u74b0\u5883\u8cc7\u6e90\u6d88\u8017\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u570b\u50b5\u589e\u52a0\u7b49\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5927\u6168\u9664\u4e86\u4e2d\u570b\u6703\u8a02\u4e0b\u81ea\u6b3a\u6b3a\u7684GDP\u589e\u9577\u76ee\u6a19\u5916\uff0c\u5916\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u65e9\u5df2\u8a08\u7b97\u5176\u4ed6\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u53bb\u5f4c\u4fddGDP\u7684\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u5982GNH(Gross National Happiness)\u6216HPI(Happy Planet Index)\u7b49\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d6\u4ee3GDP\u4f5c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u90a3\u4e9b\u91cf\u5ea6\u5feb\u6a02\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u4e3b\u89c0\u6027\u592a\u5f37\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u5ba2\u89c0\u6a19\u6e96\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\u7684\u3002 \u66f8\u4e2d\u4ea6\u63d0\u53ca\u7528\u904e\u6642\u7684GNP(Gross\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;\u66f8\u8a55&quot;","block_context":{"text":"\u66f8\u8a55","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/l_p0024271795.jpg?fit=536%2C720&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/l_p0024271795.jpg?fit=536%2C720&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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&quot;\u6295\u8cc7\u8ced\u535a&quot;","block_context":{"text":"\u6295\u8cc7\u8ced\u535a","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_market\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image.jpg?fit=1200%2C655&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image.jpg?fit=1200%2C655&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image.jpg?fit=1200%2C655&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image.jpg?fit=1200%2C655&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image.jpg?fit=1200%2C655&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":15094,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2022\/04\/03\/%e6%b7%ba%e8%ab%96%e5%85%ab%e5%a4%a7%e8%b3%87%e7%94%a2%e9%a1%9e%e5%88%a5\/","url_meta":{"origin":14145,"position":5},"title":"\u6dfa\u8ad6\u4e5d\u5927\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225","author":"hevangel","date":"April 3, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\u81ea\u5f9e\u6211\u5728\u860b\u679c\u65e5\u5831\u7684\u5c08\u6b04\u88ab\u6d88\u5931\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u63d0\u4e0d\u8d77\u52c1\u5beb\u6587\u7ae0\u3002\u5beb\u5b8c\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u8b80\u8005\uff0c\u53ea\u5728\u670b\u53cb\u4e4b\u9593\u50b3\u95b1\uff0c\u81ea\u5df2\u5b64\u82b3\u81ea\u8cde\uff0c\u96e3\u514d\u9ede\u5152\u610f\u8208\u6b04\u67f5\u3002\u6211\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u559c\u6b61\u5beb\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5beb\u6587\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u6211\u53bb\u6c89\u6bbf\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u53c8\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u6211\u7406\u5ff5\u5ee3\u50b3\u958b\u53bb\u3002\u601d\u524d\u60f3\u5f8c\uff0c\u6211\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u5beb\u7684\u984c\u76ee\uff0c\u8b80\u8005\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u770b\u7684\u984c\u76ee\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u7d66\u767c\u8868\u5e73\u53f0\u5e36\u4f86\u9ebb\u7169\uff0c\u5c31\u53ea\u6709\u6211\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b46\u8a18\u3002\u9999\u6e2f\u4eba\u8cfa\u9322\u81f3\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u8b8a\u6210\u4e00\u570b\u4e00\u5236\uff0c\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u7e3d\u4e0d\u6210\u7981\u6b62\u7092\u80a1\u7968\u5427\u3002\u5f9e\u4eca\u958b\u59cb\u6211\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u7db2\u7d61\u5e73\u53f0\u767c\u8868\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u4ee5\u6295\u8cc7\u77e5\u8b58\u548c\u6280\u5de7\u5206\u4eab\u70ba\u4e3b\u3002 \u8aaa\u5b8c\u6211\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5beb\u6295\u8cc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u90a3\u4f5c\u70ba\u8b80\u8005\u7684\u4f60\uff0c\u53c8\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8981\u770b\u6211\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5462\uff1f\u6211\u4e0d\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u5c08\u696d\u4eba\u4ed5\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u5728\u67d0\u8001\u5b57\u865f\u77fd\u8c37\u5927\u516c\u53f8\u6253\u5de5\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e2b\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u9f61\u52c9\u5f37\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u8d85\u904e\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u5927\u5b78\u5e74\u4ee3\u6253\u5de5\u8cfa\u9322\u5df2\u7d93\u6709\u73a9\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u66fe\u7d93\u8d0f\u904e\u5f88\u591a\u7d19\u4e0a\u8ca1\u5bcc\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u79d1\u7db2\u6ce1\u6cac\u7206\u7834\uff0c\u8755\u9322\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u589e\u503c\u9000\u7a05\u984d\uff0c\u7528\u4e86\u5341\u5e74\u624d\u7528\u5b8c\u3002\u4eba\u751f\u5927\u90e8\u6642\u9593\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u6c89\u60b6\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u88ab\u52d5\u5730\u8cb7\u5728\u9000\u4f11\u6236\u53e3\u8cb7ETF\uff0c\u6258\u8cf4\u8fd1\u5341\u5e74\u5927\u725b\u5e02\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u56de\u5831\u4e5f\u5f88\u7406\u60f3\u3002\u76f4\u5230\u75ab\u60c5\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u6d6a\u6bba\u5f97\u6211\u624b\u8db3\u7121\u63aa\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0awork from home\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u86c7\u738b\u5077\u61f6\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u958b\u59cb\u6bcf\u5929\u5f88\u52e4\u529b\u5730\u7747\u5e02\u3002\u9019\u5169\u5e74\u9593\u6211\u4ea4\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5b78\u8cbb\uff0c\u671f\u9593\u7684\u7d93\u6b77\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u548c\u5927\u5bb6\u6162\u6162\u5206\u4eab\u3002\u5f9e2020\u5e74\u6211\u81ea\u5df2\u958b\u59cb\u64cd\u76e4\u8a08\uff0c\u52302022\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u7d50\u7b97\u552f\u6b62\uff0c\u9000\u4f11\u5927\u5009\u6211\u662f\u8dd1\u8d0f\u5927\u5e02(\u8a08SPY\u548cQQQ\uff09\u3002\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u8ced\u9322\u7d30\u5009\uff0c\u4e00\u5e74\u56de\u5831\u8d85\u904e\u5169\u500d\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u9996\u5b63\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u8755\u9322\uff0c\u6211\u9006\u5e02\u5927\u8cfa40%\u3002 \u9019\u5169\u5e74\u6211\u95b1\u8b80\u548c\u6536\u770b\u5f88\u591a\u8ca1\u7d93\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u574a\u9593\u6709\u5206\u5716\u8868\u6d3e\u548c\u57fa\u672c\u6d3e\u4e4b\u722d\uff0c\u6211\u5c31\u8a8d\u70ba\u53ea\u6709\u5c0f\u670b\u53cb\u624d\u8981\u9078\u64c7\uff0cwhy not both? \u7528\u57fa\u672c\u6d3e\u7684\u529f\u592b\u9078\u64c7\u677f\u584a\u548c\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u7528\u5716\u8868\u6d3e\u7684\u529f\u592b\u5c0b\u627e\u5165\u5e02\u51fa\u8ca8\u7684\u6642\u6a5f\u3002\u6211\u767c\u89ba\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u4e2d\u6587\u5a92\u9ad4\u7684\u8ca1\u7d93\u8a55\u8ad6\u54e1\uff0c\u5c6c\u65bc\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3e\u7684\u6709\u5982\u9cf3\u6bdb\u9e9f\u89d2\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7406\u5ff5\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u5f9e\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u57fa\u790e\u51fa\u767c\uff0c\u5c0d\u9999\u6e2f\u8b80\u8005\u76f8\u4fe1\u6703\u6709\u65b0\u9bae\u611f\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u6211\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u7e3e\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u5168\u56e0\u53bb\u5e74\u5e74\u5c3e\u898b\u4fc4\u570b\u6e96\u5099\u5165\u4fb5\u70cf\u514b\u862d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u53c8\u8a71\u4eca\u5e74\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4fbf\u628a\u6236\u53e3\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u8ce3\u51fa\uff0c\u8cb7\u5165\u9022\u6253\u4ed7\u5fc5\u5347\u7684\u9ec3\u91d1\u80a1\u3002\u518d\u770b\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u51fa\u53e3\u662f\u7926\u7522\u548c\u5c0f\u9ea5\uff0c\u8cb7\u5165\u4e00\u4e9b\u7926\u80a1\u548c\u7ce7\u98df\u80a1\u6295\u6a5f\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u6210\u7e3e\u6700\u597d\u7684\u662f\u5316\u80a5\u516c\u53f8NTR\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u767d\u4fc4\u548c\u4fc4\u570b\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u5316\u80a5\u51fa\u53e3\u570b\uff0c\u88ab\u5236\u88c1\u4ee4\u9019\u80a1\u7968\u5728\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u5927\u534770%\uff0c\u770b\u898b\u548c\u8ac7\u958b\u59cb\u6230\u722d\u5b8c\u7d50\u5728\u671b\uff0c\u4fbf\u5728\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u958b\u59cb\u5206\u6bb5\u51fa\u8ca8\u9396\u5b9a\u5229\u6f64\u3002\u53ef\u80fd\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u904b\u6c23\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u65e2\u7136\u8a8d\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u7b97\u662f\u6709\u9ede\u6295\u8cc7\u5fc3\u5f97\uff0c\u7d22\u6027\u5beb\u51fa\u4f86\u6574\u7406\u601d\u8003\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u6c92\u6709\u5206\u5c0d\u932f\uff0c\u53e3\u820c\u4e4b\u722d\u6c92\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u8cfa\u8755\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u624d\u662f\u771f\u5be6\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u7747\u5b8c\u767c\u89ba\u6211\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u932f\u6f0f\uff0c\u4e0d\u59a8\u63d0\u51fa\u4f86\u591a\u591a\u6307\u6559\uff0c\u4fee\u6b63\u6211\u7684\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u3002 Chris Cole\u7684Dragon Portfolio\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u6211\u5b8f\u89c0\u6d3e\u7684\u555f\u8499\u8001\u5e2b\uff0c\u8b93\u6211\u958b\u773c\u754c\u77e5\u9053\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u6709\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0d\u662f\u7092\u51fa\u7092\u5165\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u505a\u597d\u98a8\u96aa\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u5e73\u8861\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u985e\u8cc7\u7522\u90fd\u6709\u5176\u5347\u8dcc\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u4e92\u76f8\u88dc\u8db3\u5f9e\u800c\u4f4e\u8cb7\u9ad8\u8ce3\u3002\u91d1\u9322\u662f\u4e0d\u6703\u6d88\u5931\uff08\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff09\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u50cf\u6c34\u4e00\u6a23\u6d41\u4f86\u6d41\u53bb\u3002\u53ea\u770b\u80a1\u96bb\u683c\u50f9\u6578\u5b57\u7684\u5347\u8dcc\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u898b\u6a39\u4e0d\u898b\u6797\u7684\u7092\u8ce3\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u6355\u6349\u91d1\u9322\u6d41\u52d5\u7684\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u9806\u52e2\u800c\u884c\u624d\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u4e4b\u9053\u3002Dragon Portfolio\u628a\u8cc7\u7522\u5206\u70ba\u4e94\u500b\u985e\u5225\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u6839\u64da\u6211\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d93\u9a57\uff0c\u628a\u8cc7\u7522\u5206\u70ba\u4e5d\u5927\u7a2e\u985e\u3002 1. \u80a1\u7968 (Equity) \u80a1\u7968\u76f8\u4fe1\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u4e0d\u8b58\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u4ee5\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u7b49\u65bc\u8cb7\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u9664\u4e86\u80a1\u7968\u5916\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u4e0d\u540c\u7a2e\u985e\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u800c\u80a1\u7968\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7d71\u7a31\uff0c\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u4e2d\u6709ticker\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u5c6c\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u985e\u5225\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u800c\u8a00\u8cb7\u80a1\u7968\u5c31\u662f\u770b\u597d\u67d0\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u5f37\u52c1\u6709\u7a69\u5b9a\u80a1\u606f\u6d3e\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u9ad8\u589e\u9577\u80a1\u50f9\u6c34\u8139\u8239\u9ad8\u3002\u8cb7\u80a1\u7968\u4e0d\u80fd\u6c92\u6709\u57fa\u672c\u6d3e\u7684\u529f\u592b\uff0c\u67d0\u516c\u53f8\u524d\u666f\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u4e0d\u8b80\u5e74\u5831\uff0c\u4e5f\u8981\u4e0a\u53bb\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u7db2\u9801\u770b\u770b\u5427\u3002\u55ae\u770b\u5716\u8868\u7092\u4e0a\u7092\u843d\u4e0d\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u9023\u6295\u6a5f\u4e5f\u8aaa\u4e0d\u4e0a\uff0c\u90a3\u53ea\u662f\u8ced\u535a\u3002\u99ac\u5f8c\u70ae\u7684\u5716\u8868\u6d3e\u5341\u5206\u6e96\u78ba\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5716\u8868\u5927\u81f3\u4e0a\u6709\u5169\u7a2e\u756b\u6cd5\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0d\u662fmomentum trend\u5c31\u662frevert to mean\uff0c\u99ac\u5f8c\u70ae\u4e00\u5b9a\u53ef\u4ee5\u756b\u5f97\u4e2d\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u4f55\u6642\u8a72\u7528\u90a3\u4e00\u7a2e\u756b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u9760\u57fa\u672c\u6d3e\u7684\u529f\u592b\u53bb\u4f5c\u51faeducated guess\u4e86\u3002 2. \u50b5\u5238 (Bond) \u77e5\u9053\u8cb7\u50b5\u5238\u53ef\u4ee5\u6536\u606f\uff0c\u90a3\u662f\u521d\u7d1a\u6295\u8cc7\u73ed\u3002\u61c2\u5f97\u904b\u7528\u80a1\u7968\u50b5\u523860\/40\u7684risk parity portfolio\uff0c\u662f\u4e2d\u7d1a\u6295\u8cc7\u73ed\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u81ea1980\u5e74\u50b5\u606f\u7d93\u904e\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5f9e\u9ad8\u4f4d\u8dcc\u81f3\u96f6\uff0c\u8dcc\u7121\u53ef\u8dcc\uff0c\u50b5\u606f\u53ea\u6703\u4e0a\u4e0d\u6703\u843d\uff0c60\/40\u5df2\u5b8c\u5168\u5931\u6548\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u7e3d\u503c$50T\u9382\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5e02\u7e3d\u503c\u9ad8\u904e$50T\u9382\uff0c\u50b5\u5e02\u5176\u5be6\u5927\u904e\u80a1\u5e02\u3002\u800c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u6700\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u5229\u606f\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6574\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5229\u606f\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u9ad8\u7d1a\u73ed\u6709\u6559\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u4e43\u91d1\u9322\u7684\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u91d1\u9322\u662f\u6240\u6709\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u8981\u770b\u61c2\u5e02\u5834\u5fc5\u9700\u8981\u660e\u767d\u5229\u606f\u5982\u4f55\u904b\u4f5c\u3002\u50b5\u5e02\u535a\u5927\u7cbe\u6df1\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u80a1\u5e02\u98a8\u5411\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u500b\u9580\u5916\u6f22\uff0c\u7747\u904e\u5c11\u5c11\u66f8\u807d\u904e\u5c11\u5c11podcast\uff0c\u7c97\u7565\u77e5\u9053\u4e5c\u91ce\u4fc2reverse repo\uff0ceuro dollars\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u90a3\u4e9b\u5b57\u6bcd\u6e6f\uff0c\u77e5\u9053\u525b\u525b\u7684\u50b5\u606f\u5012\u639b\uff08yield curve inversion\uff09\u5c07\u6703\u597d\u5927\u944a\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u6b63\u81e8\u6025\u62b1\u4f5b\u8173\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u50b5\u606f\u5012\u639b\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u4e0b\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\u3002 3. \u73fe\u91d1 (Cash) \u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\u653e\u73fe\u91d1\u5728\u9280\u884c\u4e0d\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u63f8\u73fe\u91d1\u4e5f\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u9078\u9805\u3002\u5728\u76ee\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u592a\u591a\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d81\u9084\u6709\u7372\u5229\u6642\u653e\u8ca8\u6536\u6578\u888b\u9322\uff0c\u975c\u5019\u5165\u5e02\u6642\u6a5f\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5931\u70ba\u597d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u6211\u6703\u7528credit\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u53bb\u770b\u4f8d\u73fe\u91d1\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4f60\u96a8\u6642\u53ef\u4ee5\u52d5\u7528\u7684\u6d41\u52d5\u8cc7\u672c\uff0c\u501f\u9322\u4ffe\u5229\u606f\u548c\u73fe\u91d1\u653e\u9280\u884c\u5187\u606f\u6536\uff0c\u53ea\u662fcredit\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e00\u5e63\u5169\u9762\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u6211\u5728\u73a9\u4e86option\u548cmargin\u6236\u53e3\u5f8c\u7684\u9ad4\u6703\u3002\u5728\u4f4e\u606f\u7684\u5927\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5347\u503c\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u6bd4\u5229\u606f\u9ad8\uff0c\u501f\u9322\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0d\u5931\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u597d\u7b56\u7565\u300208\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\u6211\u505a\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u6bb5\u5f88\u9577\u6642\u9593\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u6709\u62b5\u62bc\u501f\u8cb8\u53ea\u662f1%\u5229\u606f\uff0c\u8cb7\u4e9b\u6709\u80a1\u606f\u7684\u7c43\u7c4c\u80a1\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u7576\u5e74\u662f\u6162\u725b\u5e02\uff0c\u800c\u501f\u9322\u6295\u8cc7\u5229\u606f\u53c8\u53ef\u4ee5\u6263\u7a05\uff0c\u69d3\u687f\u4e0b\u56de\u5831\u5341\u5206\u7406\u60f3\u3002\u7576\u7136\u59cb\u7d42\u662f\u501f\u9322\uff0c\u8981\u5c0f\u5fc3\u98a8\u96aa\u7ba1\u7406\u3002\u574a\u9593\u6709\u4e9b\u5bb3\u4eba\u4e0d\u6dfa\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u9280\u884c\u6236\u53e3\u4e2d\u8981\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u4e00\u5e74\u751f\u6d3b\u8cbb\u7684\u73fe\u91d1\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u51ac\u74dc\u8c46\u8150\u88ab\u4eba\u7092\u9b77\u7121\u9322\u958b\u98ef\u3002\u6211\u61f7\u7591\u9019\u662f\u6839\u672c\u9280\u884c\u7684\u9670\u8b00\uff0c\u8a98\u9a19\u5b58\u6236\u628a\u73fe\u91d1\u653e\u5728\u9280\u884c\u5187\u5229\u606f\u6536\u3002\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u662f\u5fc5\u9808\u6709\u4e00\u5e74\u751f\u6d3b\u8cbb\u7684line of credit\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u6709\u9700\u8981\u6642\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u52d5\u7528\uff0c\u628a\u73fe\u91d1\u62ff\u53bb\u6295\u8cc7\u8cfa\u53d6\u5229\u6f64\uff0c\u8db3\u5920\u627e\u501f\u9322\u7684\u5229\u606f\u6709\u9918\u3002 4. \u623f\u5730\u7522 (Real Estate) 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