{"id":3172,"date":"2009-06-29T22:31:20","date_gmt":"2009-06-30T06:31:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2009\/06\/29\/%e5%85%a9%e9%80%b1%e4%b8%80%e8%81%9a%ef%b9%95%e7%94%9f%e5%91%bd%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e5%b7%a7%e5%90%88\/"},"modified":"2009-07-14T21:48:35","modified_gmt":"2009-07-15T05:48:35","slug":"%e5%85%a9%e9%80%b1%e4%b8%80%e8%81%9a%ef%b9%95%e7%94%9f%e5%91%bd%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e5%b7%a7%e5%90%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2009\/06\/29\/%e5%85%a9%e9%80%b1%e4%b8%80%e8%81%9a%ef%b9%95%e7%94%9f%e5%91%bd%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e5%b7%a7%e5%90%88\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5169\u9031\u4e00\u805a\ufe55\u751f\u547d\u4e2d\u7684\u5de7\u5408"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>\u524d\u8a00\ufe55\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u53eb\u300c<a href=\"http:\/\/2weeks1gather.wordpress.com\/\">\u5169\u5468\u4e00\u805a<\/a>\u300d\u7684\u6d3b\u52d5\u3002\u662f\u7db2\u53cb\u7c73\u96ea\u5152\u767c\u8d77\u3002\u6bcf\u6708\u5341\u4e94\u65e5\ufe51\u4e09\u5341\u65e5\ufe50\u4e00\u73ed\u4f4f\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u4e0d\u540c\u89d2\u843d\u7684\u9999\u6e2f\u4eba\u90fd\u6703\u4e00\u8d77\u5beb\u540c\u4e00\u500b\u984c\u76ee\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u662f\u7b2c\u5341\u516d\u6b21\u76f8\u805a\uff0c\u7531umptidumpti\u51fa\u984c\ufe50\u4e3b\u984c\u5b9a\u70ba\u300c\u751f\u547d\u4e2d\u7684\u5de7\u5408\u300d\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u53ef\u80fd\u6211\u8b80\u5de5\u7a0b\u7cfb\u51fa\u8eab\ufe50\u6211\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u751f\u547d\u4e2d\u6709\u5de7\u5408\u3002\u7576\u7136\u4e0d\u4fe1\u6709\u5de7\u5408\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b49\u540c\u76f8\u4fe1\u9810\u5b9a\u8ad6\ufe50\u8a8d\u70ba\u751f\u547d\u4e2d\u4e00\u5207\u4e5f\u662f\u51a5\u51a5\u4e2d\u6709\u5929\u610f\u3002\u6211\u9084\u672a\u4fee\u8b80\u6b77\u53f2\u54f2\u5b78\ufe50\u5c0d\u65bc\u6b77\u53f2\u662f\u5fc5\u7136\u6027\u548c\u5076\u7136\u6027\u7684\u554f\u984c\u9084\u672a\u601d\u8003\u5230\u7d50\u8ad6\u3002\u7576\u7136\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u4e0d\u8ca0\u8cac\u4efb\u5730\u501f\u7528\u9ed1\u683c\u723e\u7684\u8aaa\u8a71\ufe50\u4f46\u8001\u5be6\u8aaa\u6211\u9084\u662f\u641e\u4e0d\u61c2\u4ed6\u5230\u5e95\u8aaa\u4ec0\u9ebc\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u6211\u78a9\u58eb\u5012\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u96a8\u6a5f\u7387\ufe50\u6240\u6709\u751f\u547d\u4e2d\u7684\u6240\u8b02\u5de7\u5408\ufe50\u5927\u6168\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u53bb\u89e3\u91cb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8209\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\ufe50\u82e5\u62ff\u8d77\u4e00\u526f\u6d17\u5747\u7684\u5564\u724c\ufe50\u96a8\u624b\u7ffb\u958b\u6700\u4e0a\u9762\u4e94\u96bb\ufe50\u82e5\u679c\u51fa\u73fe\u540c\u82b1\u9806\u7684\u8a71\ufe50\u6211\u5011\u6703\u8aaa\u90a3\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u5de7\u5408\u3002\u82e5\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u65b7\u91cd\u8986\u6d17\u724c\u7ffb\u7248\u7684\u7a0b\u5e8f\ufe50\u7e3d\u6703\u6709\u4e00\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u540c\u82b1\u9806\u3002\u540c\u6a23\u9053\u7406\ufe50\u6211\u5011\u4eba\u751f\u4e2d\u4e00\u5929\u4e8c\u5341\u56db\u5c0f\u6642\ufe50\u4e00\u5e74\u4e09\u767e\u516d\u5341\u4e94\u65e5\ufe50\u4e00\u751f\u4eba\u6578\u5341\u500b\u5bd2\u6691\ufe50\u7121\u6578\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e0d\u65b7\u570d\u7e5e\u6211\u5011\u8eab\u908a\u767c\u751f\u3002\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u4e8b\u60c5\u5e73\u6de1\u7121\u5473\ufe50\u767c\u751f\u904e\u5f8c\u6211\u5011\u6c92\u6709\u7559\u4e0b\u5370\u8c61\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u6839\u64da\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u7684\u5b9a\u5f8b\ufe50\u7e3d\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u4e00\u4e9b\u770b\u4f3c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u767c\u751f\ufe50\u4f46\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u9072\u65e9\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\ufe50\u800c\u6211\u5011\u7e3d\u5c0d\u9019\u4e9b\u5de7\u5408\u7559\u4e0b\u6df1\u523b\u5370\u8c61\ufe50\u9019\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\u4fbf\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u751f\u547d\u4e2d\u7684\u5de7\u5408\u4e86\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u6709\u4eba\u8aaa\u6536\u5230\u904e\u7279\u5225\u865f\u78bc\u7684\u9214\u7968\ufe50\u6211\u5f9e\u4f86\u4e0d\u6703\u770b\u624b\u4e0a\u9214\u7968\u7684\u865f\u78bc\ufe50\u53ea\u6703\u770b\u9280\u78bc\ufe50\u6240\u4ee5\u5c31\u7b97\u6709\u7279\u5225\u865f\u78bc\u6211\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u77e5\u9053\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u8a66\u60f3\u4e00\u751f\u4eba\u4e2d\u6703\u63a5\u89f8\u591a\u5c11\u5f35\u9214\u7968\ufe50\u82e5\u6709\u6046\u5fc3\u6bcf\u5f35\u4e5f\u7d30\u5fc3\u89c0\u5bdf\u7684\u8a71\ufe50\u76f8\u4fe1\u7e3d\u6703\u9047\u4e0a\u5e7e\u5f35\u7279\u5225\u7684\u865f\u78bc\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u96fb\u8996\u6216\u96fb\u5f71\u4e2d\ufe50\u89c0\u773e\u624d\u77e5\u9053\u4eba\u751f\u4ea4\u53c9\u9ede\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7d50\u5c40\u4e2d\u3002\u73fe\u5be6\u4e2d\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\ufe50\u5341\u5b57\u8def\u53e3\u7684\u5169\u689d\u8def\ufe50\u6703\u5426\u6700\u7d42\u9084\u662f\u5230\u9054\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u3002\u76e1\u7ba1\u6211\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u751f\u547d\u4e2d\u7684\u5de7\u5408\ufe50\u53ef\u662f\u56de\u9867\u904e\u53bb\u6211\u7684\u751f\u547d\ufe50\u73fe\u5728\u9019\u4e00\u523b\u5b58\u5728\u65bc\u9019\u500b\u6642\u7a7a\u7684\u6211\ufe50\u5012\u50cf\u662f\u7531\u7121\u6578\u5076\u7136\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6240\u7d44\u6210\u3002\u53ea\u662f\u6211\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u77e5\u9053\ufe50\u9019\u4e9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u662f\u5076\u7136\u767c\u751f\ufe50\u9084\u662f\u9019\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u4e0a\u5929\u7684\u5b89\u6392\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u5c0f\u516d\u67d0\u5929\ufe50\u56e0\u6bcd\u89aa\u9072\u4e86\u8fd4\u5de5\ufe50\u65e9\u4e0a\u63a5\u5230\u4e00\u500b\u96fb\u8a71\ufe50\u5306\u5306\u5fd9\u5fd9\u5e36\u6211\u53bb\u9762\u8a66\ufe50\u6211\u4fbf\u4e0d\u6703\u8a8d\u8b58\u4e2d\u5b78\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u4e00\u73ed\u597d\u670b\u53cb\u3002<\/li>\n<li> 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humptidumpti\u3001<a href=\"http:\/\/czqgc.blogspot.com\/2009\/06\/630.html\" target=\"_blank\">Petit_melon<\/a>\u3001<a href=\"http:\/\/lotusandcedar.blogspot.com\/2009\/06\/2weeks1gather-17-life-is-flukefille-de.html\" target=\"_blank\">\u5fae\u8c46 Haricot<\/a>\u3001<a href=\"http:\/\/www.stoneip.info\/?p=12887%E3%80%80\" target=\"_blank\">\u77f3\u5148\u751f<\/a>\u3001<a href=\"http:\/\/lomichee.wordpress.com\/2009\/06\/30\/%E5%85%A9%E5%91%A8%E4%B8%80%E8%81%9A%EF%BC%9A%E7%94%9F%E5%91%BD%E4%B8%AD%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%A7%E5%90%88\/\" target=\"_blank\">Lomichee<\/a>\u3001<a href=\"http:\/\/xi3366.wordpress.com\/2009\/06\/30\/%E5%85%A9%E5%91%A8%E4%B8%80%E8%81%9A%EF%BC%88%E5%8D%81%E4%B8%83%EF%BC%89%EF%B9%95%E7%94%9F%E5%91%BD%E4%B8%AD%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%A7%E5%90%88\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u6d1b\u8a00<\/a>\u3001<a href=\"http:\/\/longqt.wordpress.com\/2009\/06\/29\/%E7%94%9F%E5%91%BD%E4%B8%AD%E7%9A%84%E5%B7%A7%E5%90%88\/\" target=\"_blank\"> longqt<\/a>\u3001<a href=\"http:\/\/dessyng.blogspot.com\/2009\/06\/humptidumpti-mp.html\" target=\"_blank\">The Man Who Loves Everton<\/a>\u3001<a href=\"http:\/\/ashlynnlo.xanga.com\/705800438\/\" target=\"_blank\">Chilli mom<\/a>\u3001Zero\u3001\u5357\u674f\u3001Amy\u3001Kempton\u3001\u5468\u6e38\u3001athrunz\u3001audreyma\u3001mad dog\u3001\u80a5\u80a5\u5abd\u5abd\u3001Vince\u3001hevangel\u3001yaya<\/p>\n<p>\u82e5\u679c\u60f3\u53c3\u52a0<a href=\"http:\/\/2weeks1gather.wordpress.com\/\">\u5169\u5468\u4e00\u805a<\/a>\u7684\u670b\u53cb\ufe50\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c3\u770b\u9019\u500b<a 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\u5176\u4ed6\u6587\u7ae0\ufe55\u00a0The Man Who Loves Everton\u3001chilli mom \u3001Haricot\u3001wanni\u3001HumptiDumpti\u3001longqt\u3001\u5468\u6e38\u3001lomichee\u3001Nankin\u3001\u6d1b\u8a00\u3001Michelle\u3001\u8ecd\u5e2b\u5976\u3001\u8b80\u98df\u3001hevangel\u3001athrunz\u3001Mugen C\u3001coffee\u3001\u82b8\u3001kempton\u3001mad dog\u3001\u706b\u7fbd \u82e5\u679c\u60f3\u53c3\u52a0\u5169\u5468\u4e00\u805a\u7684\u670b\u53cb\ufe50\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c3\u770b\u9019\u500b\u7db2\u9801\u3002","rel":"","context":"In &quot;\u5169\u9031\u4e00\u805a&quot;","block_context":{"text":"\u5169\u9031\u4e00\u805a","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_2weeks\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3893,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2010\/01\/19\/fooled-by-randomness-nassim-nicholas-talech\/","url_meta":{"origin":3172,"position":3},"title":"Fooled by Randomness &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Talech","author":"hevangel","date":"January 19, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"\u53bb\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u6295\u8cc7\u9280\u884c\u50b7\u4ea1\u6158\u91cd\ufe50\u53ef\u662f\u537b\u6367\u7d05\u4e86\u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u7406\u8ad6\u300d\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u548c\u5176\u4f5c\u8005Nassim Nicholas Talech\u3002\u6b64\u541b\u6295\u8cc7\u773c\u5149\u7368\u5230\u751a\u6709\u9060\u898b\ufe50\u5728\u4e00\u773e\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u7406\u9084\u6c89\u9189\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u6cab\u7684\u6642\u5019\ufe50\u4ed6\u5df2\u7d93\u9810\u8a00\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u7121\u53ef\u907f\u514d\ufe50\u4f86\u81e8\u53ea\u662f\u9072\u65e9\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u4ee4\u4e0d\u5c11\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4e00\u8216\u6e05\u888b\ufe50\u4ed6\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u537b\u9006\u5e02\u72c2\u8cfa\u4e00\u767e\u4e8c\u5341\u5104\u3002Talech\u4e26\u975e\u666e\u901a\u7684\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u7406\ufe50\u9664\u4e86\u7ba1\u7406\u57fa\u91d1\u5916\ufe50\u4ed6\u9084\u5728\u5927\u5b78\u7576\u54f2\u5b78\u6559\u6388\ufe50\u7814\u7a76\u96a8\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u8ad6\u3002 \u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u7406\u8ad6\u300d\u56e0\u70ba\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u88ab\u53d7\u8ffd\u6367\ufe50\u8ca1\u7d93\u754c\u4eba\u624b\u4e00\u672c\u5728\u95b1\u8b80\u60e1\u88dc\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u7406\u8ad6\u300d\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u5728\u91cd\u8986\u4ed6\u820a\u4f5cFooled by 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bias)\ufe50\u4ed6\u5011\u770b\u4f3c\u5e74\u5e74\u8cfa\u9322\ufe50\u4e0d\u904e\u4ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e00\u8216\u8f38\u6e05\u5149\u3002\u7528\u5ee3\u6771\u8a71\u5f65\u8a9e\u8aaa\ufe50\u4ed6\u5011\u5728\u73a9\u300c\u8d0f\u7c92\u7cd6\ufe50\u8f38\u9593\u5ee0\u300d\u7684\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u904a\u6232\u3002 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