{"id":4626,"date":"2010-07-20T00:48:08","date_gmt":"2010-07-20T08:48:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/?p=4626"},"modified":"2010-07-20T00:48:08","modified_gmt":"2010-07-20T08:48:08","slug":"socialist-workers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2010\/07\/20\/socialist-workers\/","title":{"rendered":"Socialist workers"},"content":{"rendered":"

\nChina is reaching the turning-point, India is probably not far behind. Where the outsourcing will go next? Africa or Middle East?\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

<\/p>\n

Jun 10th 2010, Economist
\nIs China\u2019s labour market at a turning-point?<\/p>\n

ON JUNE 7th strikers at a rubber factory near Shanghai clashed with Chinese police. \u201cThe smell from the rubber is unbearable,\u201d a migrant worker told the South China Morning Post, \u201cbut we don\u2019t even get a toxic fumes subsidy.\u201d On the same day Honda suffered a strike in a factory that makes its mufflers and exhaust parts, less than a week after it settled an earlier dispute by offering a 24% pay rise. On June 6th the owner of Foxconn, an electronics-maker, said that workers at its Shenzhen complex could earn 2,000 yuan ($293) a month from October if their work was up to scratch, about double the basic pay it previously offered, following a string of widely publicised suicides.<\/p>\n

China is known for its plentiful, pliable workers. But these incidents have cast doubt on that caricature. In March Arthur Kroeber of GaveKal Dragonomics, a consultancy, declared the \u201cend of surplus labour\u201d in China. Three years earlier, Cai Fang of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences argued that China, a country of 1.3 billion people, would soon run short of workers.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s labour supply is still growing. Its working-age population will increase from almost 977m in 2010 to about 993m in 2015, according to projections issued in December by the US census bureau (see left-hand chart). But the number of youngsters (15-24-year-olds) entering the labour force will fall by almost 30% over the next ten years. These projections reconcile the results of a full census in 2000 and a mini-census in 2005. They differ from the calculations reported in this newspaper on September 6th 2008 (\u201cReserve army of underemployed\u201d), which suggested that the supply of twenty-somethings would not peak until after 2015.
\nRelated items<\/p>\n

* Economics focus: Reserve army of underemployedSep 4th 2008<\/p>\n

The ageing of China\u2019s labour force matters, because older workers are less willing to move to the coastal factories that depend on migrant labour. Mr Cai has calculated that 24% of villagers aged 16-30 migrate, compared with only 11% of those in their 40s. \u201cFor years, businesses have simply assumed that China has an unlimited supply of young people who can be had for modest wages and replaced at will,\u201d Mr Kroeber writes.<\/p>\n

The assumption goes back a long way. In 1954 Sir Arthur Lewis, a development economist, noted Asia\u2019s overmanned farms, its surfeit of dockworkers and petty traders, and \u201cthe young men who rush forward asking to carry your bag\u201d. He concluded that \u201cover the greater part of Asia, labour is unlimited in supply.\u201d Islands of capitalism existed amid a sea of subsistence labour. For as long as that were true, the capitalist enclaves could grow without wages rising: they only had to offer workers a little more than could be scraped together in the vast economic hinterland. But eventually, the economy would reach a turning-point. The capitalist enclaves would reach so deeply into the country\u2019s pool of labour that the remaining supply of farmers, traders, dockworkers and bag-carriers would fall short of demand. At this point, the economy could not grow without wages rising.<\/p>\n

Mr Cai believes China has already reached this \u201cLewisian turning-point\u201d and that its arrival can be seen in more assertive workers and wage rises. As Mr Cai and his colleagues wrote presciently last year, the turn \u201cenhances the labourers\u2019 right to speak in the labourer-employer negotiation because labourers can impose stress on employers through voting with [their] feet.\u201d The pay hikes won by labourers at Honda and Foxconn are unusually big. Some cities, such as Beijing, have announced increases in their minimum wages of up to 20%. If wages continued to rise at this pace, it would mark a hairpin turn in China\u2019s labour market.<\/p>\n

Such an abrupt change is hard to explain by demography alone, however. The supply of mobile youngsters may be about to fall but it is still higher than it was five or ten years ago, when the cohort of youngsters was unusually small. This baby bust was a demographic echo of the rural famines that haunted China from 1958 to 1961, reducing the size of the cohort that would have been their parents (see right-hand chart).<\/p>\n

Returning point<\/p>\n

In fact, there are good reasons to doubt that the turning-point is here. The pay hikes follow a period of wage freezes during the financial crisis, points out Tao Wang of UBS. By themselves, the pay rises mostly make up for ground lost last year. China\u2019s economic hinterland remains vast. About 40% of the country\u2019s labour force remain in agriculture, where their productivity is about one-sixth of its level in the rest of the economy. The share is also falling quite slowly: Richard Herd and his colleagues at the OECD think it will take another decade for it to drop to 25%.<\/p>\n

Sir Arthur offered several reasons why wages might rise even before a country reached its turning-point. The \u201csubsistence\u201d wage itself might rise, for example. \u201cThe subsistence level is only a conventional idea, and conventions change,\u201d Sir Arthur pointed out. Migrants are less willing to leave home because conditions in China\u2019s hinterland have improved. \u201c\u2018Home\u2019 now has running water, electricity, highways, even internet access,\u201d says Ha Jiming of CICC, an investment bank. A government survey of returned migrants found that 30% were not sure whether to venture out again, compared with 24% two years ago.<\/p>\n

Sir Arthur also pointed out that there was often a gap between the wages paid in the capitalist economy and the subsistence earnings in the hinterland. Where the islands of capitalism met the sea of subsistence labour, there was not a \u201cbeach\u201d, but a \u201ccliff\u201d. To tempt workers over that cliff, firms have to pay a premium\u2014fumes subsidies and the like. With the ageing of the Chinese workforce that premium may rise. But again, this does not in itself mark the turning-point.<\/p>\n

That moment will come, of course. When it does wages will rise, eroding the return on capital. But as Sir Arthur argued, workers are not the only ones who can migrate. Capitalists can also go to where workers are abundant. First, labour-intensive factories will move inland. Eventually they will depart China altogether, just as they left Japan and Taiwan before it. That, after all, is why Honda and Foxconn opened plants there in the first place.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China is reaching the turning-point, India is probably not far behind. Where the outsourcing will go next? Africa or Middle East?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"lc_iscn_info":[],"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[15],"tags":[41,171],"class_list":["post-4626","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-_newsclips","tag-economist","tag-china"],"yoast_head":"\nSocialist workers - \u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"China is reaching the turning-point, India is probably not far behind. 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Only simple, repetitive tasks that are easy to QA are suitable to outsource. For complex tasks, it takes more time to write the contracts and specifications for outsourcing than actually doing the tasks yourself. By Jul 30th 2011, The Economist Outsourcing is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "News Clips"","block_context":{"text":"News Clips","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_reference\/_newsclips\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4401,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2010\/05\/24\/overstretched\/","url_meta":{"origin":4626,"position":1},"title":"Overstretched","author":"hevangel","date":"May 24, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"Working extra hard is not a long timer viable strategy to survive in a corporate world. Productive only scale linearly for putting in the extra hour. In order to stay afloat, your productivity has to grow in multiples by continuous learning. May 20th 2010, The Economist Many people who kept\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "News Clips"","block_context":{"text":"News Clips","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_reference\/_newsclips\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3663,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2009\/10\/10\/hating-what-you-do\/","url_meta":{"origin":4626,"position":2},"title":"Hating what you do","author":"hevangel","date":"October 10, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"It is easy to keep the employees happy as long as they have hope and sense of control over their life. As long as the company is growing, making lots of money, have a deep profit margin and the employee benefits from the success, the employees will be happy. They\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "News Clips"","block_context":{"text":"News Clips","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_reference\/_newsclips\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3990,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2010\/01\/23\/driven-to-distraction\/","url_meta":{"origin":4626,"position":3},"title":"Driven to distraction","author":"hevangel","date":"January 23, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"Mr. Pink is dead wrong. Intrinsic rewards and the pleasure gain from doing a job well only comes if the job is paid well. You will simply feel ripped off if you are not rewarded accordingly. Jan 14th 2010, The Economist Two and a half cheers for sticks and carrots\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "News Clips"","block_context":{"text":"News Clips","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_reference\/_newsclips\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4624,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2010\/07\/17\/hong-kongs-economy-end-of-an-experiment\/","url_meta":{"origin":4626,"position":4},"title":"Hong Kong’s economy, End of an experiment","author":"hevangel","date":"July 17, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"The minimum wage legislation marks the last straw for Hong Kong's death. The city is still there, but it is no longer the city once famous for its economy freedom. In 20 years, we will see whose economical policy is right, Cowperthwaite or Donald Tsang. 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They take in any old computer, refurbish them and send it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Daily Scribble"","block_context":{"text":"Daily Scribble","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_scribble\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4626","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4626"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4626\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4627,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4626\/revisions\/4627"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4626"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4626"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4626"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}