{"id":5448,"date":"2011-11-02T23:58:42","date_gmt":"2011-11-03T07:58:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/?p=5448"},"modified":"2015-10-28T15:45:37","modified_gmt":"2015-10-28T23:45:37","slug":"%e8%aa%b0%e8%aa%aa%e4%ba%ba%e6%98%af%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%9a%84-predctably-irrational-dan-ariely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2011\/11\/02\/%e8%aa%b0%e8%aa%aa%e4%ba%ba%e6%98%af%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%9a%84-predctably-irrational-dan-ariely\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8ab0\u8aaa\u4eba\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684 Predctably Irrational &#8211; Dan Ariely"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/predictably-irrational.jpg\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"5449\" 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2016","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u300a\u5feb\u601d\u6162\u60f3\u300b\u65e9\u5e7e\u5e74\u5341\u5206\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u771f\u5047\u77e5\u8b58\u4efd\u5b50\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u4eba\u624b\u4e00\u672c\uff0c\u5831\u7ae0\u96dc\u8a8c\u7db2\u5a92\u4e0d\u505c\u5439\u6367\uff0c\u5f77\u5f7f\u4e0d\u8aaa\u8aaa\u7cfb\u7d71\u4e00\u4e8c\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u986f\u5f97\u81ea\u5df2\u898b\u8b58\u6dfa\u8584\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5927\u53d7\u6b61\u8fce\uff0c\u7576\u4e2d\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u300c\u5149\u74b0\u6548\u61c9\u300d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005Daniel Kahneman\u88ab\u8b7d\u70ba\u300c\u884c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u300d\u4e4b\u7236\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u975e\u7406\u6027\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u4e26\u56e0\u800c\u69ae\u7372\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u662f\u4ed6\u591a\u5e74\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7e3d\u7d50\uff0c\u4ee5\uff08\u76f8\u5c0d\uff09\u6dfa\u767d\u6587\u5b57\u5beb\u7684\u79d1\u666e\u66f8\u85c9\u3002\u8001\u5be6\u8aaa\uff0c\u773e\u591a\u5927\u529b\u63a8\u85a6\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u540d\u4eba\uff0c\u6211\u61f7\u7591\u6709\u5e7e\u591a\u4eba\u771f\u7684\u5f9e\u982d\u5230\u5c3e\u628a\u5168\u66f8\u770b\u5b8c\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u539a\u9054500\u591a\u9801\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u5be6\u9a57\u70ba\u4e3b\u8ef8\uff0c\u5167\u5bb9\u9817\u70ba\u67af\u71e5\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u8981\u4ecb\u7d39\u300c\u884c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u300d\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u6703\u63a8\u85a6\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4f5c\u5165\u9580\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u6027\u8cea\u76f8\u8fd1\u66f8\u85c9\uff0c\u5982Stumbling on Happiness\uff0cPredictably Irrational\uff0cSuperforcasting\u6216Nudge\u7b49\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u6709\u8da3\u6613\u8b80\u3002\u884c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u7531Kahneman\u9996\u5148\u63d0\u51fa\u4f86\uff0c\u4e0d\u8a08\u4ed6\u767c\u8868\u7684\u5b78\u8853\u8ad6\u6587\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u662f\u6700\u63a5\u8fd1\u539f\u6587\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u624b\u6b77\u53f2\u8cc7\u6599\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u51fa\u7248\u5546\u63a8\u5ee3\u6b64\u66f8\u70ba\u79d1\u666e\u6d88\u9592\u66f8\u85c9\uff0c\u5167\u5bb9\u6df1\u6dfa\u5176\u5be6\u8207\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u8ab2\u672c\u76f8\u82e5\uff0c\u8b80\u8005\u8981\u6709\u5fc3\u7406\u6e96\u5099\u3002 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Talk\uff0c\u4f86\u5f97\u66f4\u6709\u6642\u9593\u6548\u7387\u3002\u6253\u500b\u6bd4\u55bb\u8aaa\uff0c\u6578\u5b78\u79d1\u6559\u5fae\u7a4d\u5206\uff0c\u7d55\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u5b78\u751f\u53ea\u662f\u80cc\u719f\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u61c2\u5f97\u8003\u8a66\u5982\u4f55\u61c9\u7528\u4f86\u8a08\u7b97\u7b54\u6848\u4fbf\u8db3\u5920\uff0c\u5f88\u5c11\u5b78\u751f\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u5f9efirst principle\u53bb\u8b49\u660e\u90a3\u4e9b\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u884c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u300d\u7684first principle\u8ad6\u8b49\u3002 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\u984c\u5916\u8a71\uff0c\u300a\u5feb\u601d\u6162\u60f3\u300b\u4e2d\u6587\u7248\u7684\u7ffb\u91cb\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5728\u7db2\u7d61\u4e0a\u6380\u8d77\u4e86\u8ed2\u7136\u5927\u6ce2\uff0c\u8b6f\u8005\u6d2a\u862d\u5728\u53f0\u7063\u662f\u8457\u540d\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u5979\u7684\u7ffb\u8b6f\u6c34\u6e96\u5be6\u5728\u53eb\u4eba\u4e0d\u6562\u606d\u7dad\u3002\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u624b\u6c11\u4e4b\u8aa4\u7b49\u7d1a\u7684\u4e0d\u5c0f\u5fc3\u8b6f\u932f\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5979\u5b8c\u5168\u932f\u8aa4\u7406\u89e3\u539f\u6587\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u7121\u4e2d\u751f\u6709\u4e82\u52a0\u65b0\u610f\u601d\u3002\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5e7e\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u81ea\u884c\u5b9a\u65b7\u8ab0\u662f\u8ab0\u975e\uff08\u61f6\u4eba\u5305\uff0c\u6d2a\u862d\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u81c9\u7684\u52a3\u8b6f\uff09\u3002\u770b\u4e2d\u6587\u7248\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u8981\u5c0f\u5fc3\u4e86\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u82f1\u8a9e\u80fd\u529b\u8a31\u53ef\uff0c\u5efa\u8b70\u770b\u82f1\u6587\u7248\u70ba\u4f73\u3002(\u6211\u81ea\u5df2\u662f\u807d\u6709\u8072\u66f8\u7248\uff0c\u524d\u524d\u5f8c\u5f8c\u807d\u4e86\u597d\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5167\u5bb9\u771f\u7684\u5f88\u60b6\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u89811.5x\u500d\u901f\u64ad\u653e\uff0c\u624d\u6709\u8010\u5fc3\u807d\u5b8c\u5168\u66f8\u3002\uff09 \u4f5c\u8005\u7c21\u4ecb\uff1aDaniel Kahneman\uff0c\u7f8e\u85c9\u7336\u592a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c2002\u5e74\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\uff0c\u884c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78(Behavioral Economics)\u4e4b\u7236\u3002","rel":"","context":"In &quot;\u66f8\u8a55&quot;","block_context":{"text":"\u66f8\u8a55","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/71wvKXWfcML.jpg?fit=809%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/71wvKXWfcML.jpg?fit=809%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/71wvKXWfcML.jpg?fit=809%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/71wvKXWfcML.jpg?fit=809%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13993,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2019\/12\/10\/social-choice-and-individual-values-2nd-ed-kenneth-j-arrow\/","url_meta":{"origin":5448,"position":4},"title":"Social Choice and Individual Values (2nd Ed.) &#8211; Kenneth J. Arrow","author":"hevangel","date":"December 10, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\u65e9\u524d\u4ecb\u7d39\u904e\u300a\u963f\u7f85\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9a\u7406\u300b\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u662f\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u64b0\u5beb\uff0c\u59cb\u7d42\u65bc\u90a3\u662f\u4e8c\u624b\u7684\u5c0e\u8b80\u5165\u9580\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u627e\u4f86\u4e86\u963f\u7f85\u7684\u539f\u8457\u300aSocial Choice and Individual Values\u300b\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u539f\u8457\u6bd4\u5c0e\u8b80\u300aThe Arrow Impossibility Theorem\u300b\u9084\u8981\u8584\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u767e\u4e8c\u5341\u9801\uff0c\u8207\u8aaa\u5176\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u66f8\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u8aaa\u662f\u4e00\u7bc7\u9577\u8ad6\u6587\u3002 \u539f\u8457\u5beb\u5f97\u6bd4\u5c0e\u8b80\u8271\u6df1\u96e3\u8b80\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u554f\u984c\u662f\u8ad6\u6587\u7684\u5beb\u4f5c\u6027\u8cea\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u56de\u61c9\u5176\u4ed6\u5b78\u8005\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u5728\u53c3\u8003\u7d22\u5f15\u7f85\u5217\u51fa\u8655\uff0c\u4e0d\u719f\u6089\u90a3\u4e9b\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u8b80\u8005\u770b\u5f97\u4e00\u982d\u9727\u6c34\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u8ad6\u9ede\u300a\u963f\u7f85\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9a\u7406\u300b\u5728\u539f\u8457\u4e2d\u7684\u540d\u7a31\u70baThe General Possibility Theorem\uff0c\u5247\u662f\u5f88\u67af\u71e5\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u908f\u8f2f\u63a8\u7406\uff0c\u7528first principle\u53bb\u5b9a\u7fa9social welfare function\u975e\u5e38\u5b78\u8853\uff0c\u5c0d\u6578\u5b78\u548c\u908f\u8f2f\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u4e0d\u9069\u5408\u4e00\u822c\u8b80\u8005\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u770b\u5c0e\u8b80\u7c21\u55ae\u6613\u660e\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u63a8\u8ad6\u5916\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u524d\u8a00\u548c\u7d50\u8a9e\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5beb\u4e0b\u4ed6\u653f\u6cbb\u54f2\u5b78\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6bd4\u8f03\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8aa4\u6703\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u53cd\u6c11\u4e3b\u53c8\u6216\u8005\u652f\u6301\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u4f5c\u8005\u53ea\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u500b\u5b78\u8853\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u793e\u6703\u4e2d\u773e\u4eba\u5982\u4f55\u7406\u6027\u5730\u5f97\u51fa\u5171\u8b58\u3002\u53e4\u4ee3\u7684\u795e\u6b0a\u548c\u738b\u6b0a\u653f\u6cbb\u662f\u4e00\u8a00\u5802\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6aa2\u8996\u7576\u6b0a\u8005\u6709\u5426\u4f5c\u51fa\u7406\u6027\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002\u73fe\u4ee3\u897f\u65b9\u653f\u6cbb\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u548c\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u5206\u5225\u900f\u904e\u6c11\u4e3b\u7a0b\u5e8f\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u6a5f\u5236\uff0c\u53bb\u627e\u51fa\u793e\u6703\u4e2d\u7684\u5171\u8b58\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u6a5f\u5236\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8ab2\u984c\uff0c\u800c\u963f\u7f85\u7406\u8ad6\u7cbe\u8f9f\u4e4b\u8655\uff0c\u662f\u628a\u6c11\u4e3b\u653e\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7406\u6027\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u5167\u6aa2\u8996\u3002 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https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/13168536839.jpg?fit=780%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9668,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2015\/12\/26\/rob-bank-steven-d-levitt-stephen-j-dubner\/","url_meta":{"origin":5448,"position":5},"title":"When to Rob a Bank &#8211; Steven D. Levitt &#038; Stephen J. Dubner","author":"hevangel","date":"December 26, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Morality, it could be argued, represents the way that people would like the world to work, wheareas economics represents how it actually does work. \u602a\u8a95\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78 \u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u7684\u5370\u50cf\uff0c\u7e3d\u662f\u6eff\u8eab\u9285\u81ed\uff0c\u8a71\u984c\u96e2\u4e0d\u958b\u91d1\u9322\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u570b\u6c11\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\u7b49\u67af\u71e5\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u30022009\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u602a\u8a95\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u300b\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5fc5\u7136\u5e02\u5108\u7684\u5370\u50cf\uff0c\u5f9e\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u51fa\u767c\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u985e\u4f9b\u6c42\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u539f\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u89e3\u91cb\u793e\u6703\u4e0a\u5343\u5947\u767e\u602a\u7684\u73fe\u50cf\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u6211\u5011\u7fd2\u4ee5\u70ba\u5e38\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\u89c0\u5ff5\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u7d93\u4e0d\u8d77\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u653f\u7b56\u82e5\u6f20\u8996\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u51fa\u767c\u9ede\u7684\u52d5\u6a5f\u5982\u4f55\u826f\u597d\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u53ea\u6703\u597d\u5fc3\u505a\u58de\u4e8b\u3002\u8981\u6539\u8b8a\u793e\u6703\u9020\u798f\u4eba\u985e\uff0c\u5148\u8981\u89e3\u7406\u5176\u904b\u4f5c\u539f\u7406\uff0c\u800c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6b63\u662f\u5176\u4e0d\u4e8c\u6cd5\u9580\u3002 \u300a\u602a\u8a95\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u300b\u5f15\u7528\u5927\u91cf\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u56b4\u7dca\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u63a8\u8ad6\uff0c\u7d50\u8ad6\u5f97\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u771f\u76f8\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u4ee4\u4eba\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u60c5\u611f\u4e0a\u96e3\u4ee5\u63a5\u53d7\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u6700\u5177\u722d\u8b70\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u4fbf\u662f\u4f5c\u8005\u5f9e70\u5e74\u4ee3\u7f8e\u570b\u58ae\u80ce\u5408\u6cd5\u5316\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u5404\u6d32\u58ae\u80ce\u7387\u8207\u72af\u7f6a\u7387\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u58ae\u80ce\u5408\u6cd5\u5316\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u8fd130\u5e74\u72af\u7f6a\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u7d50\u8ad6\u8aaa\u51fa\u4f86\u5f88\u9707\u64bc\uff0c\u63a8\u8ad6\u537b\u5341\u5206\u7c21\u55ae\u6613\u660e\u3002\u5728\u55ae\u89aa\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u5c0f\u5b69\uff0c\u9577\u5927\u5f8c\u5b78\u58de\u8b8a\u6210\u7f6a\u72af\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u8f03\u9ad8\uff0c\u58ae\u80ce\u8b8a\u76f8\u5f9e\u6e90\u982d\u6e1b\u5c11\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u7f6a\u72af\uff0c20\u5e74\u5f8c\u72af\u7f6a\u7387\u81ea\u7136\u4e0b\u964d\u3002 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