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\u5176\u5be6\u9019\u500b\u5b78\u671f\u6211\u6c92\u6709\u4ed8\u5b78\u8cbb\ufe50\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u662f\u5927\u73ed\u4e0a\u5802\ufe50\u4e00\u500b\u6f14\u8b1b\u5ef3\u4e09\u56db\u767e\u500b\u5b78\u751f\ufe50\u53ef\u4ee5\u5077\u5077\u5730\u8d70\u9032\u8ab2\u5ba4\u5167\u65c1\u807d\u3002\u53cd\u6b63\u9019\u79d1\u4e0d\u7528\u6559\u6388\u6539\u6587\u7ae0\ufe50\u529f\u8ab2\u53ea\u662f\u8a08\u6578\u9084\u9022\u9001\u7b54\u6848\ufe50\u6211\u65e2\u7136\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u62ff\u5b78\u5206\ufe50\u4fbf\u7121\u8b02\u82b1\u8cbb\u51a4\u6789\u9322\u4e86\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u6211\u5077\u4e0a\u5802\u5012\u4e5f\u5927\u81bd\ufe50\u4e0d\u55ae\u5750\u7b2c\u4e00\u884c\u8209\u624b\u554f\u554f\u984c\ufe50\u6559\u6388\u9080\u8acb\u5b78\u751f\u7576\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u5be6\u9a57\u7684\u767d\u8001\u9f20\u6642\ufe50\u6211\u9084\u81bd\u7c97\u7c97\u554f\u6559\u6388\u6211\u4e0d\u662f\u5b78\u751f\u53ef\u4e0d\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c3\u52a0\u3002\u8b93\u6211\u89aa\u8eab\u611f\u53d7\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u5be6\u9a57\ufe50\u9806\u5e36\u9084\u8d0f\u4e86\u5341\u4e8c\u5143\u4f5c\u5348\u98ef\u9322\u3002 \u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u807d\u843d\u5f88\u9ad8\u6df1\u96e3\u61c2\ufe50\u7576\u4e2d\u8981\u6d89\u53ca\u6578\u5b78\u6216\u8a31\u771f\u7684\u5f88\u96e3\ufe50\u53c8\u8981\u7528\u5fae\u7a4d\u5206\u53c8\u8981\u7528\u6a5f\u9047\u7387\ufe50\u4e0d\u904e\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u6168\u5ff5\u5176\u5be6\u7c21\u55ae\u6613\u660e\u3002\u8981\u627e\u91cf\u5316\u627e\u51fa\u6700\u4f73\u5e73\u8861\u9ede\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\ufe50\u82e5\u679c\u53ea\u662f\u501f\u7528\u5176\u6168\u5ff5\u4f5c\u7c97\u7565\u4f30\u8a08\ufe50\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u6559\u61c2\u6211\u7528\u4e00\u500b\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0d\u55ae\u53ea\u662f\u60b6\u86cb\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\ufe50\u5176\u539f\u7406\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u61c9\u7528\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u9700\u8981\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u6c7a\u64c7\ufe50\u9019\u8b80\u8ab2\u771f\u7684\u6211\u8b93\u6211\u5927\u958b\u773c\u754c\ufe50\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u4e0a\u4e86\u4eba\u751f\u5bf6\u8cb4\u7684\u4e00\u8ab2\u3002 \u4e0a\u7b2c\u4e00\u5802\u6642\u6559\u6388\u5df2\u5411\u6211\u5011\u8aaa\u6e05\u695a\ufe50\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b49\u540c\u73fe\u5be6\ufe50\u53ea\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5b8c\u7f8e\u6a21\u7591\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5206\u6790\u9019\u500b\u5b8c\u7f8e\u4e16\u754c\ufe50\u662f\u8a8d\u8b58\u6e05\u695a\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u5148\u8981\u6253\u597d\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u57fa\u790e\ufe50\u624d\u80fd\u61c9\u4ed8\u73fe\u5be6\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u3002\u8ab2\u7a0b\u7684\u5b89\u6392\u7531\u6dfa\u5165\u6df1\ufe50\u5148\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u5b78\u7fd2\u7c21\u55ae\u5b8c\u5168\u812b\u96e2\u73fe\u5be6\u7684\u535a\u5955\u8cfd\u5c40\ufe50\u660e\u767d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5e7e\u500b\u57fa\u790e\u6168\u5ff5\u5f8c\ufe50\u624d\u6162\u6162\u52a0\u5165\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u8907\u96dc\ufe50\u548c\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u50cf\u73fe\u5be6\u7684\u8cfd\u5c40\u8b8a\u5316\u3002 \u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u5047\u5b9a\u6240\u6709\u53c3\u52a0\u8005(player)\u4e5f\u662f\u7406\u6027\u548c\u5c0f\u5fc3\ufe50\u5373\u662f\u4ed6\u5011\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u4f5c\u51fa\u6700\u5927\u56de\u5831\u7684\u9078\u64c7\ufe50\u4e0d\u6703\u4e0d\u5c0f\u5fc3\u8a08\u932f\u6578\u3002\u4f46\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u5047\u5b9a\u53c3\u52a0\u8005\u81ea\u79c1\ufe50\u56e0\u70ba\u5229\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u56de\u5831\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u5167\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u5b78\u7fd2\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u8d77\u9ede\ufe50\u4e5f\u5fc5\u5b9a\u662f\u56da\u5f92\u56f0\u5c40(prisoner dilemma)\ufe50\u5169\u500b\u56da\u72af\u6c7a\u5b9a\u62db\u6216\u4e0d\u62db\u4f9b\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5b8c\u7f8e\u5168\u77e5\u52d5\u614b\u55ae\u6b21\u8cfd\u5c40(perfect complete static single game)\ufe50\u4ea6\u662f\u6700\u6700\u6700\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u8cfd\u5c40\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002 \u7d0d\u6b8a\u5e73\u8861(Nash equilibrium)\u662f\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u6700\u5e38\u807d\u5230\u7684\u540d\u8a5e\u3002\u7d0d\u6b8a\u5e73\u8861\u662f\u6307\u6240\u6709\u53c3\u52a0\u8005\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u4f5c\u51fa\u4efb\u4f55\u55ae\u65b9\u9762\u884c\u52d5\u53bb\u589e\u52a0\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u56de\u5831\u3002\u5373\u662f\u8cfd\u5c40\u8655\u65bc\u4e00\u500b\u5e73\u8861\u72c0\u614b\ufe50\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u53bb\u9810\u6e2c\u5c0d\u624b\u7684\u9078\u64c7\ufe50\u56e0\u70ba\u5c0d\u624b\u53ea\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u66f4\u52a0\u597d\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002\u6578\u5b78\u4e0a\u8b49\u5be6\u4e86\u7d0d\u6b8a\u5e73\u8861\u5fc5\u7136\u5730\u5b58\u5728\ufe50\u6559\u6388\u96d6\u7136\u66fe\u5beb\u51fa\u4e86\u8b49\u660e\u7b97\u5f0f\ufe50\u4e0d\u904e\u90a3\u689d\u6578\u5be6\u5728\u592a\u6df1\u5967\u4e86\ufe50\u5e78\u597d\u6211\u4f86\u65c1\u807d\u4e0d\u7528\u8003\u8a66\u3002 \u52a3\u52e2\u7b56\u7565(dominated strategy)\u662f\u6307\u4e0d\u8ad6\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u689d\u4ef6\u4e0b\ufe50\u4e5f\u6709\u66f4\u52a0\u597d\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u7406\u6027\u7684\u53c3\u52a0\u8005\ufe50\u662f\u6c38\u9060\u4e0d\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u52a3\u52e2\u7b56\u7565\ufe50\u56e0\u70ba\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u56de\u5831\u561b\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u53cd\u8986\u522a\u6e1b\u6cd5(iterated elimination)\ufe50\u9664\u53bb\u8cfd\u5c40\u4e2d\u7684\u52a3\u52e2\u7b56\u7565\ufe50\u7c21\u5316\u8cfd\u5c40\u7684\u5206\u6790\ufe50\u751a\u81f3\u627e\u51fa\u8cfd\u5c40\u7684\u7b54\u6848(solution)\ufe50\u4ea6\u5373\u662f\u8cfd\u5c40\u7d0d\u6b8a\u5e73\u8861\u9ede\u3002 \u5f88\u591a\u6642\u8cfd\u5c40\u6c92\u6709\u7d14\u7a2e\u7b56\u7565(pure strategy)\ufe50\u5373\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u53ef\u767e\u642d\u6240\u6709\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u9078\u64c7\ufe50\u4f46\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u6709\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u500b\u6df7\u5408\u7b56\u7565(mix strategy)\u3002\u6df7\u5408\u7b56\u7565\u662f\u6307\u4f60\u7684\u6700\u597d\u9078\u64c7\ufe50\u4fbf\u662f\u6309\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\ufe50\u96a8\u6a5f\u5730\u4f5c\u51fa\u67d0\u4e00\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u3002\u5c0d\u624b\u4e0d\u8ad6\u5982\u4f55\u56de\u61c9\u4f60\u7684\u9078\u64c7\ufe50\u4ed6\u7684\u9047\u671f\u56de\u5831(expected return)\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u8d85\u904e\u7d0d\u6b8a\u5e73\u8861\u9ede\u3002 \u53ea\u8981\u660e\u767d\u7d0d\u6b8a\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u6168\u5ff5\u5f8c\ufe50\u91cd\u8986\u8cfd\u5c40(finite game)\u7121\u7aae\u8cfd\u5c40(infinite game)\u548c\u52d5\u614b\u8cfd\u5c40(dynamic game)\u53ea\u662f\u66f4\u52a0\u8907\u96dc\u8cfd\u5c40\ufe50\u5176\u89e3\u7b54\u539f\u7406\u8207\u57fa\u672c\u8cfd\u5c40\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u5229\u7528\u53cd\u5411\u6b78\u7d0d\u6cd5(backward induction)\ufe50\u627e\u51fa\u6bcf\u500b\u5b50\u8cfd\u5c40\u7684\u7d0d\u6b8a\u5e73\u8861(sub-game Nash equilibrium)\ufe50\u518d\u53cd\u8986\u63a8\u8ad6\u627e\u51fa\u6574\u500b\u8cfd\u5c40\u7684\u7d0d\u6b8a\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u7121\u7aae\u8cfd\u5c40\u6700\u7279\u5225\u7684\u5730\u65b9\ufe50\u662f\u63a1\u7528\u61f2\u7f70\u7b56\u7565(punishment)\ufe50\u7528\u640d\u5df1\u640d\u5169\u6557\u4ff1\u50b7\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\ufe50\u53bb\u8feb\u5c0d\u624b\u4e0d\u4f5c\u51fa\u67d0\u4e9b\u9078\u64c7\u3002\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4f86\u8a08\u7b97\ufe50\u6700\u6709\u6548\u7684\u61f2\u7f70\u7b56\u7565\ufe50\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u640d\u5931\u6700\u5c0f\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\ufe50\u6536\u5230\u6700\u5927\u7684\u963b\u5687\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5728\u975c\u614b\u8cfd\u5c40\u4e2d\ufe50\u6bcf\u4e00\u5c40\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u8b8a\ufe50\u800c\u52d5\u614b\u535a\u5955\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u5247\u53d7\u4e0a\u4e00\u5c40\u9078\u64c7\u5f71\u97ff\u3002 \u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u8cfd\u5c40(imperfect information game)\u548c\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u8cfd\u5c40(incomplete information game)\u662f\u5169\u500b\u4e0d\u540c\u8b8a\u5316\ufe50\u9019\u5169\u500b\u8b8a\u5316\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6df7\u6dc6\u3002\u524d\u8005\u662f\u6307\u53c3\u52a0\u8005\u77e5\u9053\u5c0d\u624b\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u689d\u4ef6\ufe50\u4f46\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u5c0d\u624b\u66fe\u7d93\u4f5c\u51fa\u751a\u9ebc\u9078\u64c7\u3002\u5f8c\u8005\u5247\u662f\u6307\u53c3\u52a0\u8005\u4e26\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u5c0d\u624b\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u689d\u4ef6\ufe50\u53ea\u77e5\u9053\u5c0d\u624b\u6240\u6709\u9078\u64c7\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u8cfd\u5c40\u7684\u89e3\u7b54\u539f\u7406\u540c\u4e0a\ufe50\u4f46\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u8cfd\u5c40\u5247\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u8c9d\u6c0f\u7d0d\u6b8a\u5e73\u8861(Bayes-Nash equilibrium)\u4f86\u89e3\u7b54\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u55ae\u5143\u4e0d\u80fd\u9010\u4e00\u8a73\u4f8b\ufe50\u5982\u96f6\u548c\u8cfd\u5c40(zero-sum game)\ufe50\u9053\u5fb7\u98a8\u96aa(moral hazard)\ufe50\u8cfd\u5c40\u8a2d\u8a08(mechanical design)\ufe50\u8a0a\u606f\u8cfd\u5c40(signaling game)\ufe50\u6bcf\u7a2e\u8cfd\u5c40\u4e5f\u5404\u6709\u7279\u6027\u548c\u7528\u9014\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u8aaa\u7a7f\u4e86\u842c\u8b8a\u4e0d\u96e2\u5176\u5b97\ufe50\u7d0d\u6b8a\u5e73\u8861\u5c31\u662f\u89e3\u7b54\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u8ab2\u7a0b\u9664\u4e86\u7a7a\u8ac7\u7406\u8ad6\u5916\ufe50\u9084\u6709\u5206\u6790\u4e00\u4e9b\u73fe\u5be6\u4f8b\u5b50\ufe50\u597d\u8b93\u5b78\u751f\u898b\u8b58\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u5be6\u969b\u61c9\u7528\u3002\u7576\u7136\u90a3\u4e9b\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u6578\u64da\u7d93\u904e\u7c21\u5316\ufe50\u4f46\u5df2\u8db3\u4ee5\u8aaa\u670d\u6211\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u5a01\u529b\u3002\u5f15\u7528\u77f3\u6cb9\u8f38\u51fa\u570b\u7d44\u7e54(OPEC)\u548c\u4e03\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u5371\u6a5f\ufe50\u89e3\u91cb\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5f15\u5165\u7af6\u722d\u6703\u4ee4\u5e02\u50f9\u4e0b\u8dcc\ufe50\u800c\u58df\u65b7\u4e0d\u5229\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u3002\u5206\u6790NASDAQ\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5377\ufe50\u6307\u51fa\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u79c1\u4e0b\u4e92\u901a\u72fd\u72d9\u70ba\u5978\u7684\u5bb3\u8655\ufe50\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u9632\u6b62\u4ed6\u5011\u806f\u624b\u9020\u5e02\u3002\u6700\u4ee4\u6211\u611f\u5230\u5982\u5922\u521d\u9192\ufe50\u662f\u5206\u6790\u82f1\u5f0f\u62cd\u8ce3\u548c\u8377\u5f0f\u62cd\u8ce3\u4e0d\u540c\ufe50\u4e26\u6307\u51fa\u8ce3\u65b9\u5728\u5169\u8005\u7684\u9810\u671f\u6536\u5165\u5747\u7b49\u3002 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"\u904a\u6232"","block_context":{"text":"\u904a\u6232","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_games\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Reigns-Download.jpg?fit=706%2C1007&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Reigns-Download.jpg?fit=706%2C1007&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Reigns-Download.jpg?fit=706%2C1007&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Reigns-Download.jpg?fit=706%2C1007&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13235,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2018\/12\/12\/ingress-%e5%8b%95%e7%95%ab%e7%89%88\/","url_meta":{"origin":596,"position":5},"title":"Ingress \u52d5\u756b\u7248","author":"hevangel","date":"December 12, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"\u904a\u6232\u6539\u7bc7\u7684\u52d5\u756b\u901a\u5e38\u51fa\u4e8b\uff0c\u624b\u6a5f\u904a\u6232\u6539\u7bc7\u7684\u66f4\u5e38\u4e2d\u5730\u96f7\u3002\u4eca\u6b21Netflix\u62cd\u64cbNiantic(\u5373\u51faPokemon Go\u90a3\u9593\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u539f\u672c\u96b8\u5c6cGoogle\u65d7\u4e0b\uff0c\u5275\u8fa8\u4eba\u66fe\u767c\u660eGoogle Map\uff0c\u5230Pokemon 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