{"id":7310,"date":"2013-05-03T02:21:48","date_gmt":"2013-05-03T10:21:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/m.horace.org\/blog\/?p=7310"},"modified":"2015-10-28T15:23:07","modified_gmt":"2015-10-28T23:23:07","slug":"%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\/","title":{"rendered":"\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78 – \u674e\u9006\u71b5"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u9999\u6e2f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e4b\u7236\u8a9e\u500b\u7a31\u547c\uff0c\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u7576\u4e4b\u7121\u6127\u3002\u4e8c\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u671f\u9084\u662f\u5c0f\u5b78\u751f\u7684\u6211\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u5fe0\u5be6\u64c1\u8e89\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u6211\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u555f\u8499\u8001\u5e2b\uff0c\u5e36\u6211\u9032\u5165\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u6bbf\u5802\uff0c\u6559\u66c9\u6211\u4ec0\u9ebc\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\uff0c\u885b\u65af\u7406\u90a3\u4e9b\u5192\u96aa\u6545\u4e8b\u56b4\u683c\u4e0a\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b97\u662f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u5728\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7576\u79d1\u5b78\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u70ba\u63a8\u52d5\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u548c\u79d1\u666e\u4e0d\u9055\u9918\u529b\uff0c\u5beb\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u95dc\u65bc\u5169\u8005\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u4ed6\u7684\u65b0\u66f8\u300c\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u300d\uff0c\u5f9e\u79d1\u5e7b\u79d1\u666e\u51fa\u8d70\u5230\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\uff0c\u6311\u6230\u6211\u5011\u8996\u4e4b\u70ba\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\uff0c\u6279\u5224\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3002\u6211\u53c8\u600e\u80fd\u932f\u904e\u984c\u6750\u9019\u9ebc\u5438\u5f15\u7684\u66f8\u5462\uff0c\u5728\u66f8\u5c40\u9047\u4e0a\u4fbf\u7acb\u99ac\u8cb7\u56de\u5bb6\u7d30\u8b80\u3002<\/p>\n

\u98db\u5feb\u5730\u770b\u5b8c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5f8c\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u611f\u89ba\uff0c\u662f\u770b\u4e00\u672c\u66f8\u7b49\u65bc\u770b\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u672c\u66f8\u3002\u300c\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u300d\u4f3c\u662f\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u7684\u8b80\u66f8\u7b46\u8a18\uff0c\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\uff0c\u5916\u570b\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u6279\u5224\u91d1\u878d\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\uff0c\u9023\u540c\u4e00\u4e9b\u51fa\u7248\u5e74\u4efd\u66f4\u65e9\u540c\u985e\u66f8\u85c9\u7684\u7d93\u5178\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u5927\u6168\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u5168\u90e8\u770b\u904e\u4e86\u3002\u7b97\u8d77\u4f86\u6211\u81ea\u5df2\u4e5f\u4e0d\u592a\u5dee\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u904e\u7684\u66f8\u672c\u540d\u55ae\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u770b\u904e\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u516d\u4e03\u672c\u3002\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u5de6\u7ffc\u4efd\u5b50\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u5e74\u5c11\u6642\u8b80\u6d77\u8036\u514b\u548c\u4f5b\u5229\u6c11\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u8a00\u8ad6\u5f88\u4e2d\u80af\u4e0d\u4f3c\u4e00\u822c\u5de6\u7ffc\u4efd\u5b50\u90a3\u9ebc\u504f\u6fc0\uff0c\u60f3\u4ed6\u662f\u5982\u5be6\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u4ed6\u8b80\u904e\u66f8\u672c\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u3002\u53ea\u662f\u4ed6\u66f8\u4e2d\u5c0d\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u6279\u5224\u597d\u50cf\u5168\u6253\u4e86\u7a3b\u8349\u4eba\uff0c\u672a\u80fd\u628a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u53cd\u8f49\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u570d\u7e5e\u8457\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5718\u5718\u8f49\uff0c\u6211\u6709\u9ede\u61f7\u7591\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u5c0d\u5230\u5e95\u5c0d\u771f\u6b63\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u8a8d\u8b58\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u96d6\u7136\u53ea\u5728\u5927\u5b78\u6642\u4fee\u8b80\u904e\u7684\u5e7e\u9580\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u548c\u54f2\u5b78\u7684\u8ab2\uff0c\u770b\u4e86\u4e00\u5806\u666e\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u6211\u65e2\u7136\u81ea\u8a8d\u70ba\u53f3\u6d3e\u4eba\uff0c\u5c0d\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u7b46\u4e0b\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u8207\u6211\u8a8d\u8b58\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u6703\u4e0d\u6703\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u53ea\u900f\u904e\u4ed6\u8b80\u90a3\u4e9b\u66f8\u6709\u8272\u773c\u93e1\u53bb\u770b\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5f97\u51fa\u8207\u4e8b\u5be6\u76f8\u5dee\u5f88\u9060\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u3002\u8981\u77e5\u5728\u5de6\u6d3e\u5fc3\u4e2d\uff0c\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u6574\u500b\u5730\u7403\u7684\u6240\u6709\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7b97\u5230\u842c\u60e1\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u982d\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c31\u597d\u50cf\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u611b\u628a\u6240\u6709\u554f\u984c\u63a8\u7d66\u9b54\u9b3c\u6492\u65e6\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u4e0b\u6587\u6211\u5c07\u6703\u5217\u51fa\u66f8\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e00\u7ae0\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u548c\u504f\u898b\uff0c\u56de\u9867\u4ee5\u524d\u4e0a\u5802\u5b78\u5230\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u548c\u5f9e\u7db2\u4e0a\u627e\u4f86\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u8a66\u5617\u63d0\u51fa\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u4ee5\u6539\u6b63\u66f8\u4e2d\u932f\u8aa4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u7ae0\uff1a\u65b0\u53f3\u56de\u671d<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9019\u7ae0\u5f9e\u7f8e\u570b\u5217\u6839\u7e3d\u7d71\u548c\u82f1\u570b\u8f09\u5353\u723e\u592b\u4eba\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6539\u9769\u8aaa\u8d77\uff0c\u8b1b\u8ff0\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8208\u8d77\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u6240\u8aaa\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u662f\u4e8b\u5be6\u4f46\u4e0d\u662f\u4e8b\u5be6\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u5f15\u7528\u4e0d\u5c11\u504f\u9817\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u8b93\u8b80\u8005\u5148\u5c0d\u53f3\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u6539\u9769\u5148\u7559\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u58de\u5370\u8c61\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u300c\u82f1\u570b\u5927\u6771\u96fb\u5831\u79c1\u6709\u5316\uff0c\u54e1\u5de5\u58eb\u6c23\u5927\u4e0d\u5982\u4ee5\u524d\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u6c92\u6709\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u5927\u6771\u96fb\u5831\u58df\u65b7\u9577\u9014\u96fb\u8a71\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u8981\u4ed8\u51fa\u6602\u8cb4\u7684\u96fb\u8a71\u8cbb\uff0c\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u5f8c\u5f15\u5165\u7af6\u722d\u8b93\u96fb\u8a0a\u8cbb\u7528\u4e0b\u964d\u4eba\u6c11\u53d7\u60e0\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u300c\u65b0\u897f\u862d\u7684\u6c23\u8c61\u5c40\u9032\u884c\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u6c23\u8c61\u670d\u52d9\u7adf\u7136\u6210\u70ba\u4e86\u4e00\u76e4\u751f\u610f\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u6c92\u6709\u544a\u8a22\u4f60\u65b0\u897f\u862d\u6c23\u8c61\u5c40\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u570b\u71df\u4f01\u696d\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u5fc5\u8981\u670d\u52d9\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u514d\u8cbb\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u666e\u901a\u5e02\u6c11\u7528\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u7279\u5225\u670d\u8cbb\uff0c\u624d\u63a1\u53d6\u7528\u8005\u81ea\u4ed8\u7684\u539f\u5247\u6536\u56de\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u66f8\u4e2d\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u300c\u5217\u6839\u65bc\u4e00\u4e5d\u516b\u4e00\u5e74\u5c07\u904e\u842c\u540d\u9032\u884c\u7f77\u5de5\u7684\u822a\u7a7a\u7ba1\u5236\u54e1\u89e3\u50f1\u4e26\u6307\u660e\u70ba\u4e0d\u9304\u7528\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u6c92\u6709\u544a\u8a34\u90a3\u4e9b\u822a\u7a7a\u7ba1\u5236\u54e1\u7f77\u5de5\u722d\u53d6\u4e00\u9031\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e09\u5341\u4e8c\u5c0f\u6642\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u65e9\u65bc\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u5df2\u6709\u6cd5\u4f8b\uff0c\u8a02\u660e\u822a\u7a7a\u7ba1\u5236\u54e1\u548c\u8b66\u5bdf\u6d88\u9632\u54e1\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u5c6c\u65bc\u5fc5\u8981\u670d\u52d9\u4e0d\u80fd\u7f77\u5de5\u5426\u5247\u9055\u6cd5\u3002\u628a\u822a\u7a7a\u7ba1\u5236\u54e1\u89e3\u50f1\u53ea\u662f\u4f9d\u6cd5\u884c\u4e8b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u7f77\u5de5\u904e\u5f8c\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u822a\u7a7a\u7ba1\u5236\u54e1\u4ea6\u80fd\u91cd\u64cd\u6545\u696d\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u300c\u6234\u5353\u723e\u592b\u4eba\u65bc\u4e00\u4e5d\u516b\u56db\u5e74\u5c07\u64c1\u6709\u5341\u591a\u842c\u6703\u7684\u7164\u7926\u5de5\u6703\u5fb9\u5e95\u6253\u57ae\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u66f8\u4e2d\u6c92\u6709\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u7576\u5e74\u63a1\u7164\u5728\u82f1\u570b\u5df2\u662f\u5915\u967d\u5de5\u696d\uff0c\u4e00\u4f86\u4ee5\u7164\u4f5c\u70ba\u80fd\u6e90\u5341\u5206\u4e0d\u74b0\u4fdd\uff0c\u4e8c\u4f86\u82f1\u570b\u7164\u7926\u5b58\u91cf\u5df2\u6f38\u898b\u67af\u7aed\uff0c\u505c\u6b62\u63a1\u7164\u53ea\u662f\u9072\u65e9\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u7f77\u5de5\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6234\u5353\u723e\u592b\u4eba\u6253\u7b97\u95dc\u9589\u4e8c\u5341\u500b\u7164\u7926\uff0c\u8af7\u523a\u7684\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u7f77\u4e86\u4e00\u5e74\u5de5\uff0c\u597d\u4e9b\u7164\u7926\u6b20\u7f3a\u4fdd\u990a\u7dad\u4fee\uff0c\u7f77\u5de5\u7d50\u675f\u6642\u7926\u4e95\u5df2\u8b8a\u5f97\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u4e0d\u80fd\u958b\u63a1\uff0c\u7164\u7926\u5de5\u4eba\u7f77\u5de5\u53cd\u5c0d\u7164\u7926\u95dc\u9580\u53cd\u800c\u52a0\u901f\u4e86\u95dc\u9580\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u7ae0\u6700\u5f8c\u4f5c\u8005\u6559\u8b80\u8005\u5206\u8fa8\u300c\u5de6\u300d\u8207\u300c\u53f3\u300d\u7684\u5c0f\u77e5\u8b58\u66f4\u662f\u932f\u5f97\u96e2\u8b5c\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u8aaa<\/p>\n

\u53f3\u50be\u7684\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\u300c\u500b\u4eba\u81ea\u7531\u300d\u8207\u300c\u8cac\u4efb\u627f\u64d4\u300d\u8f03\u300c\u793e\u6703\u516c\u7fa9\u300d\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u800c\u300c\u5e02\u5834\u898f\u5f8b\u300d\u5247\u8f03\u300c\u570b\u5bb6\u529f\u80fd\u300d\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5de6\u50be\u5247\u662f\u5c0d\u8a9e\u7a2e\u89c0\u9ede\u7684\u53cd\u52d5\uff0c\u5176\u91cd\u9ede\u662f\u6d88\u6ec5\u58d3\u8feb\u548c\u525d\u524a\uff0c\u4f38\u5f35\u793e\u6703\u516c\u7fa9\u3002\u6709\u95dc\u300c\u5de6\u3001\u53f3\u300d\u7684\u722d\u8ad6\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u5982\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u300c\u793e\u6703\u516c\u7fa9\u300d\u8207\u300c\u500b\u4eba\u81ea\u7531\u300d\u4e4b\u9593\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\u3002\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u53f3\u6d3e\u4e5f\u5341\u5206\u91cd\u8996\u300c\u793e\u6703\u516c\u7fa9\u300d\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u5de6\u53f3\u5169\u6d3e\u5c0d\u300c\u793e\u6703\u516c\u7fa9\u300d\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u53f3\u6d3e\u91cd\u8996\u7684\u662f\u300c\u7a0b\u5e8f\u516c\u5e73\u300d\uff0c\u5de6\u6d3e\u91cd\u8996\u7684\u662f\u300c\u7d50\u679c\u5e73\u5747\u300d\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u53f3\u6d3e\u4e5f\u91cd\u8996\u300c\u570b\u5bb6\u529f\u80fd\u300d\uff0c\u7562\u7adf\u53f3\u6d3e\u4e26\u975e\u7121\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u3002\u53ea\u662f\u53f3\u6d3e\u5148\u5929\u6027\u4e0d\u4fe1\u6027\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f35\u5fc5\u9700\u8981\u9650\u5236\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u4fdd\u969c\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\u548c\u81ea\u7531\u3002\u5de6\u6d3e\u5247\u76f8\u5c0d\u5730\u4fe1\u4efb\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u8981\u901a\u904e\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5e72\u9810\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8b77\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\u548c\u81ea\u7531\u3002\u300c\u5de6\u3001\u53f3\u300d\u7684\u722d\u8ad6\uff0c\u662f\u5169\u6975\u50f9\u503c\u89c0\u7684\u53d6\u5411\uff0c\u91cd\u8996\u904e\u7a0b\u9084\u662f\u91cd\u8996\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u4fe1\u4efb\u9084\u662f\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u653f\u5e9c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\uff1a\u300c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\u5e2d\u6372\u5168\u7403<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9019\u7ae0\u7c21\u55ae\u4ecb\u7d39\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u5167\u5bb9\u4e0d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u6709\u662f\u6709\u932f\uff0c\u4f46\u7528\u8a5e\u65b9\u9762\u4e0d\u514d\u6709\u65b7\u7ae0\u53d6\u7fa9\u4e4b\u5acc\uff0c\u6587\u4e2d\u66f4\u6232\u8a00\u300c\u5982\u96fb\u5f71\u9435\u7532\u5a01\u9f8d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u7dad\u6301\u6cbb\u5b89\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u70ba\u88ab\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u7684\u696d\u8c61\u300d\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u73fe\u5be6\u4e2d\u61c9\u8a72\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u652f\u6301\u7dad\u6301\u6cbb\u5b89\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u7684\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5728\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u4e2d\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u4fbf\u662f\u5c0d\u66b4\u529b\u624b\u6bb5\u7684\u58df\u65b7\uff0c\u628a\u7dad\u6301\u6cbb\u5b89\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0d\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u6dea\u70ba\u9ed1\u793e\u6703\u5f0f\u7684\u66b4\u529b\u96c6\u570b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u66f8\u4e2d\u8aaa\u7279\u9996\u66fe\u852d\u6b0a\u5f15\u7528\u300c\u6ef2\u6ef4\u5f0f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u300d\uff0c\u8aaa\u81f4\u529b\u4fc3\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u628a\u9905\u9020\u5927\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u6703\u53d7\u76ca\uff0c\u4f46\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u300c\u4e0a\u6ef2\u5f0f\u300d\u7684\u8ca1\u5bcc\u8f49\u79fb\uff0c\u4f7f\u8ca1\u5bcc\u7684\u96c6\u4e2d\u8b8a\u5f97\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u53b2\u5bb3\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5728\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u4e2d\uff0c\u7aae\u4eba\u812b\u8ca7\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u9014\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u81ea\u6211\u589e\u503c\u63d0\u5347\u751f\u7522\u529b\uff0c\u5f9e\u4f4e\u6280\u8853\u5de5\u4f5c\u8f49\u578b\u81f3\u9ad8\u6280\u8853\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u8ab0\u4eba\u51fa\u529b\u628a\u9905\u505a\u5927\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5403\u6389\u589e\u5927\u90a3\u90e8\u4efd\u7684\u9905\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u751f\u7522\u529b\u6c92\u6709\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u584a\u9905\u9020\u5f97\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff0c\u5206\u5230\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u5c0f\u584a\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u6539\u8b8a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\u4f5c\u8005\u6709\u4e9b\u5f88\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u5f04\u932f\u4e86\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u8aaa\u300c\u8ca7\u5bcc\u61f8\u6b8a\u7684\u73fe\u50cf\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u570b\u5167\u7684\u9084\u662f\u570b\u8207\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\uff0c\u537b\u4e5f\u8b8a\u7684\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u56b4\u6703\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u6211\u4e0a\u7db2\u67e5\u770b\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u57281970\u5e74\u767c\u9054\u570b\u5bb6(OECD)\u7684GDP\u4f54\u5168\u7403GDP\u768478.6%\uff0c\u4f462012\u5e74\u5df2\u4e0b\u964d\u81f365.8%\uff0c\u5f88\u660e\u986f\u570b\u8207\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u8ca7\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u6536\u7a84\u4e86\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u300c\u9760\u5927\u91cf\u501f\u8ca8\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6d88\u8cbb\u300d\u4e0d\u77e5\u4f55\u89e3\u7b97\u5230\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u982d\u4e0a\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e3b\u5f35\u653f\u5e9c\u524a\u6e1b\u958b\u652f\u5e73\u885d\u9810\u7b97\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f35\u9760\u501f\u8ca8\u53bb\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u662f\u90a3\u500b\u534a\u5de6\u6d3e\u7684\u51f1\u601d\u65af\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u66f8\u4e2d\u8aaa\u300c\u5168\u7403\u8d85\u7d1a\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u6700\u5927\u798d\u5bb3\uff0c\u9577\u9060\u4f86\u8aaa\u5fc5\u7136\u662f\u5168\u7403\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u6c61\u67d3\u548c\u751f\u614b\u5e73\u885d\u7684\u7834\u58de\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u707d\u96e3\u6027\u5f8c\u679c\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u7834\u58de\u74b0\u5883\u4e0d\u7368\u662f\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u7576\u5e74\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8607\u806f\u4e5f\u5f04\u51fa\u500b\u6c99\u6f20\u4e4b\u6d77(Aral Sea)\u7684\u751f\u614b\u5927\u707d\u96e3\u3002\u6b78\u6839\u7a76\u4f4e\u8981\u7b97\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u7834\u58de\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u539f\u5147\u662f\u5de5\u696d\u9769\u547d\u548c\u73fe\u4ee3\u5316\u624d\u5c0d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u5f8c\u9644\u6709\u4ecb\u7d39\u5967\u5730\u5229\u8207\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5b78\u6d3e\u7570\u540c\u7684\u5c0f\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u4eca\u6b21\u4f5c\u8005\u5012\u8aaa\u5f97\u4e2d\u80af\uff0c\u4e0d\u59a8\u4e00\u8b80\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e09\u7ae0\uff1a\u5bcc\u9952\u4e2d\u7684\u8ca7\u56f0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u7ae0\u8209\u51fa\u4e00\u5927\u4e32\u73fe\u4eca\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u7167\u820a\u628a\u6240\u6709\u554f\u984c\u7b97\u5230\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u982d\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u63a8\u8ad6\u5247\u5b8c\u5168\u4e45\u5949\uff0c\u5f77\u5f7f\u53ea\u662f\u96a8\u624b\u627e\u96bb\u4ee3\u7f6a\u7f94\u7f8a\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u8aaa\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u570b\u5bb6\u5982\u4f55\u8ca7\u7aae\u5982\u4f55\u4e0d\u516c\u7fa9\uff0c\u300c\u5341\u56db\u5104\u4eba\u6bcf\u5929\u4e0d\u8db31.25\u7f8e\u5143\u5ea6\u65e5\u300d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7ffb\u770b\u7dad\u57fa\u767e\u79d1GDP(PPP)\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u5c0d\u6bd41913\u5e74\u548c2003\u5e74\u7684\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u6574\u9ad4\u7684GPD\u5347\u4e8615\u500d\uff0c\u897f\u6b50\u7684\u5347\u4e868.7\u500d\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5347\u4e8616.3\u500d\uff0c\u4f60\u4f30\u975e\u6d32\u7684GDP\u5347\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u500d\uff0c\u662f\u5347\u4e8616.7\u500d\uff0c\u6bd4\u7f8e\u570b\u9084\u8981\u591a\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u540c\u6642\u671f\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u9577\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u6b50\u7f8e\u5206\u5225\u53ea\u5347\u4e861.8\u500d\u548c4.1\u500d\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6d32\u5247\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a07.3\u500d\u3002\u53ef\u898b\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u8ca7\u7aae\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u6e90\u56e0\u662f\u672a\u80fd\u63a7\u5236\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u584a\u9905\u7684\u589e\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\u8207\u897f\u65b9\u76f8\u82e5\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u5206\u9905\u7684\u4eba\u537b\u591a\u51fa\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u76f8\u5c0d\u4e0b\u8b8a\u5f97\u8f03\u70ba\u8ca7\u7aae\u3002<\/p>\n

\u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u9054\u570b\u5bb6\u4e4b\u5167\u7684\u8ca7\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u300c\u7f8e\u570b\u6700\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e94\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u4eba\u53ea\u662f\u589e\u9577\u4e866%\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u6210\u679c\u5206\u914d\u6975\u5ea6\u4e0d\u5747\u300d\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u4f5c\u8005\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u60f3\u904e\uff0c\u90a3\u4e94\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u4eba\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8ca2\u737b\u5462\uff1f\u82e5\u679c\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u548c\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4f9d\u7136\u505a\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u800c\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u751f\u7522\u529b\u6c92\u6709\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u4e0d\u8a08\u56e0\u901a\u6f32\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u85aa\u91d1\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4ed6\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u5be6\u8cea\u5de5\u8cc7\u6703\u589e\u52a0\u5462\uff1f\u66f4\u4e0d\u8981\u8aaa\u5728\u90a3\u4e94\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u4eba\u7576\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u597d\u4e9b\u4eba\u6839\u672c\u6c92\u6709\u5de5\u4f5c\u9818\u53d6\u798f\u5229\u904e\u6d3b\uff0c\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5168\u7121\u8ca2\u737b\uff0c\u7adf\u7136\u9084\u597d\u610f\u601d\u539a\u8457\u9762\u76ae\u53bb\u5206\u4eab\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7684\u6210\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6700\u5f8c\u4f5c\u8005\u53cd\u554f\u300c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u70ba\u6211\u5011\u5e36\u4f86\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7684\u7f8e\u9e97\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u300d\uff0c\u300c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u653f\u5e9c\u6551\u5e02\u4e0d\u6551\u4eba\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u7533\u8acb\u7834\u7522\u4fdd\u8b77\uff0c\u9ad8\u5c64\u4eba\u54e1\u9084\u53ef\u7372\u5de8\u984d\u85aa\u91d1\u548c\u82b1\u7d05\u300d\uff0c\u300c\u6211\u5011\u70ba\u4f55\u6703\u8b93\u793e\u6703\u767c\u5c55\u5230\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u500b\u5730\u6b65\u300d\u3002\u4e0a\u4e00\u7ae0\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df2\u624d\u8aaa\u904e\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5c0d\u53cd\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u6551\u5e02\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u5f15\u81f4\u9053\u5fb7\u98a8\u96aa(moral hazard)\uff0c\u9019\u7b46\u7cca\u5857\u8cec\u600e\u6a23\u4e5f\u4e0d\u61c9\u7b97\u5230\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u982d\u4e0a\u4f86\u5427\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u8981\u56de\u7b54\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u793e\u6703\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6703\u767c\u5c55\u9019\u4e00\u500b\u5730\u6b65\uff0c\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u5de6\u6d3e\u907a\u7559\u7684\u9918\u6bd2\u9084\u672a\u5fb9\u5e95\u6e05\u9664\u3002\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u6b21\u6309\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u800c\u6b21\u6309\u7684\u6e90\u982d\u6b63\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9810\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u8981\u5169\u623f\u9054\u6210\u4eba\u4eba\u6709\u5c4b\u4f4f\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4efb\u52d9\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u8ca8\u6b3e\u4eba\u662f\u5426\u8db3\u5920\u9084\u50b5\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u786c\u751f\u751f\u628a\u9055\u7d04\u98a8\u96aa\u6ce8\u5165\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u6f14\u8b8a\u6210\u50b3\u70b8\u5f48\u904a\u6232\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7ae0\u672a\u4f5c\u8005\u4ecb\u7d39\u300c\u99ac\u592a\u6548\u61c9\u300d\u548c\u300c\u8ca7\u7aae\u9677\u9631\u300d\uff0c\u60f3\u8aaa\u670d\u8b80\u8005\u5e02\u5834\u5fc5\u7136\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u300c\u5bcc\u8005\u8d8a\u5bcc\uff0c\u8ca7\u8005\u8d8a\u8ca7\u300d\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5927\u8a71\u6015\u8a08\u6578\uff0c\u6211\u4f8b\u8209\u5169\u500b\u6b77\u53f2\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u9577\u9060\u800c\u8a00\u300c\u99ac\u592a\u6548\u61c9\u300d\u4e26\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u9053\u74ca\u65af\u5de5\u696d\u6307\u6578\u4e09\u5341\u96bb\u6210\u5206\u80a1\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u6700\u6709\u9322\u7684\u5927\u4f01\u696d\uff0c1970\u5e74\u5230\u73fe\u572840\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e94\u9593\u516c\u53f8\u4ecd\u7136\u7559\u5728\u6307\u6578\u5167\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u516c\u53f8\u7121\u5f97\u7559\u5e95\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u66f4\u52a0\u7834\u7522\u6536\u5834\u3002\u963f\u6839\u5ead\u65bc1900\u5e74\u6642\uff0c\u66fe\u7d93\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5341\u5f37\uff0c\u4eba\u5747GPD\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u63a5\u8fd1\u7f8e\u570b\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u963f\u6839\u5ead\u5247\u6dea\u70ba\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u570b\u5bb6\u3002\u53cd\u89c0\u4e9e\u6d32\u5404\u570b\u5982\u65e5\u672c\uff0c\u5357\u97d3\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7b49\uff0c\u5f9e\u4e00\u7aae\u4e8c\u767d\u5230\u6649\u9032\u767c\u9054\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u884c\u5217\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u53ef\u898b\u6709\u9322\u53ef\u4ee5\u56e0\u70ba\u5931\u8aa4\u800c\u8b8a\u6210\u7121\u9322\uff0c\u7121\u9322\u7684\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6191\u9032\u6b65\u5f8c\u4f86\u8ffd\u4e0a\uff0c\u9019\u4fbf\u662f\u5275\u9020\u6027\u6bc0\u6ec5(creative destruction)\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u56db\u7ae0\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u5316\u8836\u98df\u793e\u6703\u50f9\u503c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9019\u4e00\u7ae0\u8f49\u800c\u6279\u8a55\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u4f5c\u8005\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5c0d\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e2d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u8aa4\u89e3\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u8aaa<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u300c\u4e00\u500b\u9858\u8cb7\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u9858\u8ce3\u300d\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u5c31\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u793e\u6703\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u90a3\u7e3b\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7d55\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u793e\u6703\u90fd\u4e0d\u8a31\u8ce3\u8840\uff0c\u8ce3\u5668\u5b98\uff0c\u8ce3\u6deb\uff0c\u8ce3\u6bd2\u54c1\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5b78\u4f4d\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5b98\u8077\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5b50\u5973\uff0c\u300c\u8ce3\u8eab\u846c\u7236\u300d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u8a31\u8ce3\u300c\u9ec3\u725b\u98db\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u5f7c\u6b64\u4f60\u60c5\u6211\u9858\u7684\u9ad8\u5229\u8ca8\uff0c\u5305\u652c\u8a34\u8a1f\uff0c\u91d1\u5b57\u5854\u5f0f\u63a8\u92b7\u7b49\uff0c\u5728\u7d55\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u570b\u5bb6\u90fd\u88ab\u5217\u70ba\u975e\u6cd5\uff1f\u5f88\u660e\u986f\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u4ea4\u6613\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u51cc\u99d5\u65bc\u793e\u6703\u50f9\u503c\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u6289\u64c7\u4e4b\u4e0a<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u9996\u5148\u8981\u6f84\u6e05\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u6703\u8a8d\u540c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6240\u8b02\u8cb7\u8ce3\u662f\u81ea\u7531\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u4f86\u81ea\u5eb7\u5fb7\u7684\u9053\u5fb7\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u8981\u5c0a\u91cd\u634d\u885b\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u5c0a\u56b4\u3002\u8ce3\u8840\uff0c\u8ce3\u5668\u8840\uff0c\u8ce3\u5b50\u5973\uff0c\u8ce3\u8eab\u846c\u7236\u7b49\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u9055\u53cd\u4eba\u6b0a\u628a\u4eba\u985e\u8cb6\u70ba\u8ca8\u7269\uff0c\u8207\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u885d\u7a81\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e2d\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u5fc5\u9700\u4ee5\u5408\u7d04\u7cbe\u795e\u548c\u8aa0\u4fe1\u70ba\u5927\u524d\u984c\uff0c\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u529f\u7528\uff0c\u4fbf\u662f\u76e3\u7763\u4eba\u6c11\u5c65\u884c\u5408\u7d04\u7684\u7fa9\u52d9\u3002\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5b78\u4f4d\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5b98\u8077\uff0c\u7092\u9ec3\u725b\u98db\uff0c\u9ad8\u5229\u8ca8\uff0c\u5305\u652c\u8a34\u8a1f\uff0c\u91d1\u5b57\u5854\u5f0f\u63a8\u92b7\u7b49\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u53cd\u5c0d\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u884c\u70ba\u542b\u6709\u6b3a\u9a19\u6216\u9055\u7d04\u6210\u4efd\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u5b97\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6bd2\u54c1\u4e0d\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u5176\u4ed6\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u793e\u6703\u554f\u984c\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u672c\u8eab\u4e26\u4e0d\u652f\u6301\u6216\u53cd\u5c0d\u8ce3\u6bd2\u54c1\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u7981\u4e0d\u7981\u6bd2\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u793e\u6703\u6210\u672c\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u8ce3\u6deb\u561b\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u5b8c\u5168\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u897f\u65b9\u81ea\u7531\u793e\u6703\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u9999\u6e2f\uff0c\u8ce3\u6deb\u662f\u5408\u6cd5\u7684\uff0c\u72af\u6cd5\u7684\u53ea\u662f\u626f\u76ae\u689d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u63a5\u8457\u9019\u7ae0\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6279\u8a55\u5e02\u5834\u5316\uff0c\u8aaa\u300c\u5e02\u5834\u5316\u672c\u8eab\u66f4\u662f\u56b4\u91cd\u5730\u8836\u98df\u8457\u4eba\u969b\u9593\u7684\u502b\u7406\u95dc\u4fc2\u4ee5\u53ca\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u793e\u7fa4\u50f9\u503c\u300d\uff0c\u4e26\u8209\u51fa\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u8a17\u5152\u6240\u5c0d\u9072\u5230\u63a5\u5b50\u5973\u7684\u5bb6\u9577\u5f15\u5165\u7f70\u6b3e\u4f5c\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u9019\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\u5728Predictably Irrational\u4e00\u66f8\u4e2d\u6211\u4e5f\u6709\u770b\u904e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u628a\u9019\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u5316\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u672a\u514d\u904e\u4efd\u806f\u60f3\u3002\u9019\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u6307\u51fa\u4eba\u8166\u5206\u70ba\u611f\u6027\u548c\u7406\u6027\u5169\u500b\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u601d\u8003\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u5f97\u51fa\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u985e\u975e\u7406\u6027\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\uff0c\u65e9\u5df2\u6649\u8eab\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6Maurice Allais\u66f4\u6191\u6b64\u7372\u5f97\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u734e\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u719f\u6089\u884c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u5169\u8005\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f8\u5bb9\u5171\u8655\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u5f71\u97ff\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u67b6\u69cb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6700\u5f8c\u4f5c\u8005\u518d\u4e00\u6b21\u6253\u7a3b\u8349\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u6279\u8a55\u6d88\u8cbb\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u8aaa\u300c\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5341\u8db3\u5947\u602a\u7684\u672c\u672b\u5012\u7f6e\u300d\uff0c\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u4e5f\u6703\u8a8d\u540c\u9019\u756a\u8aaa\u8a71\u3002\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u4fbf\u662f\u7d2f\u7a4d\u8cc7\u672c\u53bb\u589e\u52a0\u751f\u7522\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u503c\u50f9\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u4e3b\u7fa9\u537b\u53cd\u884c\u5176\u9053\u628a\u9322\u82b1\u6389\uff0c\u4e0d\u77e5\u4f55\u89e3\u4f5c\u8005\u628a\u6d88\u8cbb\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7b97\u5230\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u982d\u4e0a\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u4ed6\u53c8\u8aaa\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u6309\u7167\u300c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\u7684\u4e3b\u5c0e\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5927\u53ef\u5c07\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u516c\u5712\u3001\u5716\u66f8\u9928\u3001\u535a\u7269\u9928\u3001\u90f5\u653f\u5c40\u3001\u6c34\u52d9\u8655\u3001\u6d88\u9632\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u6551\u50b7\u8eca\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u6c23\u50cf\u670d\u52d9\u7b49\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u3002\u6240\u6709\u570b\u5bb6\u5176\u81f3\u4e0d\u518d\u9700\u8981\u8b66\u5bdf\u548c\u8ecd\u968a\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7dad\u6301\u6cbb\u5b89\u53ef\u7531\u4fdd\u5b89\u516c\u53f8\u8ca0\u8cac\u3001\u570b\u9632\u5247\u53ef\u7531\u50f1\u50ad\u5175\u8ca0\u8cac\u3002\u5f9e\u7d93\u6fdf\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u9019\u4e9b\u8f49\u8b8a\u80af\u5b9a\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6548\u76ca\u300d\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u54a6~ \u9019\u7ae0\u958b\u9996\u4e0d\u624d\u525b\u525b\u8aaa\u904e\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u670d\u52d9\u662f\u516c\u7528\u54c1(public goods)\uff0c\u7531\u653f\u5e9c\u4f86\u505a\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7387\u55ce\uff1f\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u53ef\u4e5f\u767e\u4efd\u767e\u8a8d\u540c\u9019\u9ede\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8c48\u4e0d\u662f\u81ea\u6253\u5634\u5df4\uff1f\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u63d0\u51fa\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u7684\u6700\u5927\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u662f\u5982\u679c\u6709\u4e9b\u670d\u52d9\u5e02\u5834\u7af6\u722d\u6bd4\u653f\u5e9c\u5305\u8fa6\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u4fbf\u61c9\u8a72\u8b93\u5e02\u5834\u4f86\u505a\uff0c\u4f46\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5f9e\u4f86\u6c92\u6709\u8aaa\u904e\u6240\u6709\u653f\u5e9c\u670d\u52d9\u4e5f\u8981\u79c1\u71df\u5316\u554a\u3002\u518d\u8aaa\u591a\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u7121\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u7ae0\u5f8c\u9762\u7684\u5c0f\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u7528\u6700\u5f8c\u901a\u789f\u904a\u6232(Utlimatum Game)\uff0c\u8aaa\u7406\u6027\u7684\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u4eba\u300d\u61c9\u8a72\u8b93\u4eba\u5bb6\u62ff\u4e5d\u5341\u4e5d\u5143\u63a5\u53d7\u4e00\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u62cd\u5169\u6563\u4ee4\u5927\u5bb6\u4e5f\u6c92\u9322\u62ff\uff0c\u53bb\u8b49\u660e\u4eba\u985e\u6709\u516c\u5e73\u4e4b\u5fc3\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4f5c\u8005\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u8b80\u904e\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6(Game Theory)\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u7121\u4ec7\u5831\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u904e\u904a\u6232single shot game\uff0c\u4f46\u73fe\u5be6\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u4e00\u6b21\u904e\u904a\u6232\u4e26\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u904a\u6232\u90fd\u662f\u91cd\u8986\u904a\u6232(repeated game)\u3002\u5728\u91cd\u8986\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u62cd\u5169\u6563\u662f\u8feb\u5c0d\u624b\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c40\u5c31\u7bc4\u7684\u6700\u597d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4eba\u8166\u5c31\u6703\u4f5c\u51fa\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002\u518d\u8005\u5c31\u7b97\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u904e\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\uff0c\u8b93\u5c0d\u624b\u77e5\u9053\u4f60\u6709\u4e00\u62cd\u5169\u6563\u7684\u6c7a\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u9632\u6b62\u4ed6\u4e82\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u597d\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u8aaa\u7406\u6027\u7d93\u6fdf\u4eba\u8ffd\u6c42\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5316\u592a\u904e\u77ed\u8996\u4e86\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u7406\u6027\u7d93\u6fdf\u4eba\u8ffd\u6c42\u7684\u662f\u9577\u9060\u6548\u76ca\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e94\u7ae0\uff1a\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6307\u6a19<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u8aaa\u8981\u53cd\u8f49\u4e3b\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\uff0c\u9019\u7ae0\u6307\u51faGDP(Gross Domestic Product)\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u4e3b\u6d41\u7684\u5e38\u8b58\uff0c\u4e2d\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u8ab2\u6216\u8a31\u6c92\u6709\u6559\uff0c\u5927\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u8ab2\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u8b1b\u53caGDP\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u3002\u9019\u7ae0\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u5168\u7121\u554f\u984c\u5341\u5206\u6b63\u8def\uff0cGDP\u7684\u4e14\u800c\u78ba\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u72f9\u9698\u548c\u504f\u9817\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u300d\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u91cf\u5ea6\u4e00\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e00\u5e74\u5167\u7684\u82b1\u8cbb\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u6c92\u6709\u53cd\u6620\u5176\u4ed6\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5982\u74b0\u5883\u8cc7\u6e90\u6d88\u8017\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u570b\u50b5\u589e\u52a0\u7b49\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5927\u6168\u9664\u4e86\u4e2d\u570b\u6703\u8a02\u4e0b\u81ea\u6b3a\u6b3a\u7684GDP\u589e\u9577\u76ee\u6a19\u5916\uff0c\u5916\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u65e9\u5df2\u8a08\u7b97\u5176\u4ed6\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u53bb\u5f4c\u4fddGDP\u7684\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u5982GNH(Gross National Happiness)\u6216HPI(Happy Planet Index)\u7b49\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d6\u4ee3GDP\u4f5c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u90a3\u4e9b\u91cf\u5ea6\u5feb\u6a02\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u4e3b\u89c0\u6027\u592a\u5f37\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u5ba2\u89c0\u6a19\u6e96\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u66f8\u4e2d\u4ea6\u63d0\u53ca\u7528\u904e\u6642\u7684GNP(Gross National Product)\u53d6\u4ee3GDP\uff0c\u6211\u5f88\u5947\u602a\u4f5c\u8005\u600e\u9ebc\u4e0d\u63d0\u66f4\u65b0\u66f4\u6e96\u78ba\u7684GNI(Gross National Income)\u548cGPI(Genuine Progress Indicator)\u3002GDP\u8a08\u7b97\u570b\u5883\u5167\u7684\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff0cGNP\u5247\u8a08\u7b97\u570b\u6c11\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u7684\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff0c\u4f46GNP\u8a08\u6f0f\u4e86\u5229\u606f\u6536\u5165\u548c\u5206\u7d05\uff0cWorld Bank\u65e9\u5df2\u7528GPI\u53d6\u4ee3\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u9069\u5408\u7684\u6307\u6a19GPI\u5247\u4ee5GDP\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\uff0c\u6e1b\u53bb\u72af\u7f6a\u7387\uff0c\u8cc7\u6e90\u6d88\u8017\uff0c\u74b0\u5883\u6c61\u67d3\uff0c\u8fb2\u5730\u5132\u5099\u7b49\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6307\u6a19\u7684\u793e\u6703\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4f86\u8a08\u7b97\u6574\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u9577\u9060\u7684\u7d9c\u5408\u751f\u7522\u529b\u7684\u589e\u6e1b\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5be6\u969b\u4e0aGDP\uff0cGNP\uff0cGDI\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u5176\u5be6\u5dee\u8ddd\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u70ba\u4f8b\u4e09\u8005\u76f8\u5dee\u4e0d\u8db30.4%\uff0c\u800cGPI\u8a08\u6578\u5247\u592a\u904e\u7e41\u5fa9\u96e3\u61c2\uff0c\u53cd\u6b63GPD\u65e9\u5df2\u6df1\u5165\u6c11\u5fc3\u7c21\u660e\u6613\u8b80\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e00\u822c\u65b0\u805e\u767c\u4f48\u5faa\u4f8b\u63a1\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u516d\u7ae0\uff1a\u7d93\u6fdf\u52d5\u76ea\u7684\u6839\u6e90<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9019\u7ae0\u96c6\u4e2d\u6279\u8a55\u767e\u75c5\u53e2\u751f\u7684\u73fe\u4ee3\u91d1\u878d\u9ad4\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee5\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u70ba\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u53cd\u9762\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u8aaa\u300c\u5145\u6eff\u8457\u81ea\u6b3a\u6b3a\u4eba\u7684\u8d85\u7d1a\u6ce1\u6cab\u300d\uff0c\u300c\u7576\u6b0a\u8005\u76e1\u91cf\u7dad\u6301\u73fe\u72c0\u7279\u5225\u662f\u6b0a\u8cb4\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u300d\uff0c\u300c\u5efa\u7bc9\u5728\u50b5\u52d9\u4e0a\u7684\u7e41\u69ae\u662f\u7d55\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7e8c\u300d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4f9d\u820a\u628a\u8cac\u4efb\u63a8\u5fa1\u5728\u300c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\uff0c\u300c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e00\u9ad4\u5316\u300d\uff0c\u300c\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u5171\u8b58\u300d\u4e0a\u3002\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u8a8d\u540c\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7d71\u6709\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u8a8d\u70ba\u554f\u984c\u6839\u6e90\u5728\u65bc\u653f\u5e9c\u53cd\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u80cc\u9053\u800c\u884c\uff0c\u89e3\u6c7a\u8fa6\u6cd5\u662f\u91cd\u56de\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u6b63\u8ecc\u3002\u300c\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u5171\u8b58\u300d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u689d\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u958b\u5b97\u540d\u7fa9\u8981\u653f\u5e9c\u6e1b\u5c11\u8ca0\u50b5\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u7684\u9060\u56e0\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9810\u5f15\u767c\u6b21\u6309\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u8fd1\u56e0\u5247\u662f\u570b\u5bb6\u8ca1\u653f\u8ca0\u50b5\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u4e0d\u8ca0\u8cac\u4efb\u5730\u4f4e\u606f\u5370\u9280\u7d19\uff0c\u5927\u4f01\u696d\u6536\u53d7\u653f\u5e9c\u5de8\u984d\u88dc\u8cbc\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e00\u6b21\u53c8\u4e00\u6b21\u51fa\u624b\u6551\u5e02\uff0c\u8d0f\u5c31\u6de8\u888b\u8f2a\u5c31\u653f\u5e9c\u5305\u5e95\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u9280\u884c\u81ea\u7121\u8996\u672c\u8eab\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u53bb\u76e1\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u300c\u9053\u5fb7\u98a8\u96aa\u300d\u628a\u6ce1\u6cac\u8d8a\u6efe\u8d8a\u5927\u3002\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u5c0d\u73fe\u4ee3\u91d1\u878d\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7684\u6539\u9769\u66f4\u52a0\u5fb9\u5e95\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8981\u6c42\u91cd\u65b0\u6aa2\u8996\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u6cd5\u4eba\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u5bb9\u8a31\u6709\u9650\u516c\u53f8\u5f15\u8d77\u9003\u907f\u50b5\u52d9\u8cac\u4efb\u7684\u554f\u984c\u7b49\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u6709\u4e9b\u4e0d\u592a\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u908f\u8f2f\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5148\u8aaa\u300c\u4e9e\u6d32\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u4e9e\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u88ab\u8feb\u9032\u884c\u8cc7\u7522\u5927\u8ce4\u8ce3\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u7092\u5bb6\u8d81\u6a5f\u5927\u6383\u8ca8\uff0c\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u63a0\u596a\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u6c92\u6709\u63d0\u53ca\u7576\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u6642\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u4f4e\u8ff7\u4e5f\u5438\u5f15\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u570b\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4f86\u6383\u8ca8\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4fbf\u8aaa\u300c\u6709\u9322\u4eba\u628a\u8ca1\u5bcc\u4e09\u5206\u4e00\u6295\u8cc7\u65bc\u4f4e\u98a8\u96aa\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u628a\u4e09\u5206\u4e00\u7528\u4f86\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u7092\u8cb7\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e00\u6b21\u53c8\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u5d29\u6f70\u300d\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u53c8\u8aaa\u300c\u8cc7\u672c\u7684\u89e3\u653e\u4ee4\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u5e7e\u4e4e\u9023\u6210\u4e00\u9ad4\u300d\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u771f\u7684\u662f\u9023\u6210\u4e00\u9ad4\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u53c8\u4f55\u4f86\u4f4e\u98a8\u96aa\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5462\uff1f\u53e6\u5916\u4f5c\u8005\u5c0d\u71b1\u9322\u7684\u60f3\u50cf\u592a\u904e\u7c21\u5316\uff0c\u50cf\u6d2a\u6c34\u822c\u6efe\u4f86\u6efe\u53bb\u6c96\u8d70\u4e00\u5207\u5f88\u5f71\u50cf\u5316\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u8207\u4e8b\u5be6\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u4e4e\u3002\u7576\u7136\u71b1\u9322\u4ea6\u975e\u5168\u7121\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u4ee5\u6211\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u6050\u6015\u4e0d\u80fd\u5728\u6b64\u4e09\u8a00\u5169\u8a9e\u89e3\u91cb\u6e05\u695a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7ae0\u672a\u4ecb\u7d39\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bba\u624b\u7684\u544a\u767d\u300d\u4e00\u66f8\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6211\u65e9\u5e7e\u5e74\u770b\u904e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5beb\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5927\u6168\u8a8d\u70ba\u8b80\u8005\u770b\u5b8c\ufe50\u6703\u8a8d\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u525d\u524a\u7aae\u570b\u4e0d\u516c\u7fa9\u3002\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u662f\u5426\u4ed6\u904b\u6c23\u4e0d\u597d\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u7576\u5730\u6587\u5316\u7684\u554f\u984c\ufe50\u4ed6\u66fe\u5230\u5370\u5c3c\ufe50\u5df4\u62ff\u99ac\ufe50\u6c99\u5730\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u548c\u5384\u74dc\u591a\u723e\u7576\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bba\u624b\ufe50\u90a3\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u5230\u4eca\u5929\u662f\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u843d\u5f8c\u570b\u5bb6\u3002\u53cd\u89c0\u7576\u5e74\u540c\u6a23\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9644\u5eb8\u570b\u7684\u4e9e\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\ufe50\u65e5\u672c\ufe50\u53f0\u7063\ufe50\u5357\u97d3\ufe50\u661f\u52a0\u5761\ufe50\u4eca\u5929\u5df2\u968e\u8eab\u767c\u9054\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u884c\u4f8b\ufe50\u7d93\u6fdf\u5be6\u529b\u4e4b\u5f37\u8db3\u4ee5\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e00\u8f03\u9ad8\u4e0b\u3002\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u525d\u524a\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u8d70\u4e0d\u51fa\u8ca7\u7aae\u7684\u56f0\u5c40\ufe50\u9084\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u81ea\u5df1\u6c92\u6709\u597d\u597d\u628a\u63e1\u7f8e\u570b\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u6a5f\u6703\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e03\u7ae0\uff1a\u74b0\u5883\u751f\u614b\u6158\u906d\u6b83<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u66fe\u4efb\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7684\u79d1\u5b78\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c0d\u5730\u7403\u74b0\u5883\u554f\u984c\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5c08\u5bb6\u3002\u9019\u7ae0\u4ed6\u5217\u8209\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u300c\u5efa\u7bc9\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u50b5\u52d9\u4e4b\u4e0a\u7684\u6df1\u798d\u5bb3\u300d\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u5371\u8a00\u8073\u807d\uff0c\u82e5\u4eba\u985e\u4e0d\u6b63\u8996\u74b0\u5883\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u6050\u6015\u6703\u6709\u7d55\u7a2e\u7684\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u66f8\u5167\u4ea6\u4e58\u6a5f\u8ce3\u5ee3\u544a\uff0c\u63a8\u4ecb\u4ed6\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u672c\u8457\u4f5c\u300c\u559a\u919269\u5104\u96bb\u9752\u86d9\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u5167\u5e55\u62ab\u9732\u300d\u3002\u53ea\u662f\u65e9\u524d\u5df2\u8aaa\u904e\u74b0\u5883\u6c61\u67d3\uff0c\u4e0d\u7368\u662f\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u554f\u984c\u66f4\u52a0\u56b4\u91cd\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u5012\u5728\u7da0\u8272\u79d1\u6280\u5275\u65b0\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u80fd\u6e90\u4f7f\u7528\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u958b\u767c\u518d\u751f\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u70ba\u4fdd\u8b77\u74b0\u5883\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u5206\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7ae0\u672b\u4f5c\u8005\u6279\u8a55\u300c\u9ad8\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u300d\uff0c\u5148\u8aaa\u300c\u53ea\u8981\u628a\u6240\u6709\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u696d\u6b0a\u6e05\u695a\u91d0\u5b9a\uff0c\u5247\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bcb\u9808\u4efb\u4f55\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5e72\u9810\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u900f\u904e\u5e02\u5834\u6a5f\u5236\u89e3\u6c7a\u754c\u5916\u6548\u61c9(\u74b0\u5883\u6c61\u67d3)\u7684\u554f\u984c\u300d\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u4ed6\u53c8\u8aaa\u300c\u4e0d\u5c11\u5b78\u8005\u90fd\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u70ba\u96f6\u9019\u500b\u524d\u63d0\u5728\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u6975\u96e3\u6eff\u8db3\uff0c\u9ad8\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u7684\u9069\u7528\u60c5\u6cc1\u5341\u5206\u6709\u9650\u300d\u3002\u7a76\u7adf\u4f5c\u8005\u77e5\u4e0d\u77e5\u5230\u8ab0\u662f\u9f0e\u9f0e\u4e0d\u540d\u7684\u9ad8\u65af\uff1f\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u7406\u8ad6\u6b63\u6b63\u662f\u9ad8\u65af\u7684\u62db\u724c\uff0c\u4ed6\u4fbf\u662f\u6191\u300c\u793e\u6703\u6210\u672c\u8ad6\u300d\u7372\u53d6\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u734e\u3002\u300c\u9ad8\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u300d\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u7d50\u8ad6\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u6bcb\u9808\u4efb\u4f55\u5e72\u9810\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u61c9\u8a72\u8981\u76e1\u529b\u964d\u4f4e\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u800c\u7576\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u592a\u904e\u9ad8\u6216\u7522\u751f\u642d\u4fbf\u8eca\u7684\u554f\u984c\u6642\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u61c9\u8a72\u7528\u96f6\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u7684\u7406\u60f3\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u53bb\u4f5c\u5236\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6307\u5f15\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u516b\u7ae0\uff1a\u5b78\u7406\u4e0a\u7684\u6df1\u5c64\u6279\u5224<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6211\u4e0d\u662f\u5b78\u8853\u5708\u4e2d\u4eba\uff0c\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u6a21\u6a23\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u5fc3\u4e2d\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u53ea\u61c2\u5b8c\u5168\u62bd\u96e2\u73fe\u5be6\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u548c\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u9019\u7ae0\u6279\u8a55\u9019\u4e9b\u86cb\u982d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u8aaa\u4ed6\u5011\u300c\u8207\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u56b4\u91cd\u812b\u7bc0\u300d\uff0c\u4e3b\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u7acb\u8ad6\u7576\u4e2d\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u812b\u8b1b\u73fe\u5be6\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u6096\u60c5\u7406\u300d\uff0c\u9019\u9ede\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u5012\u8207\u4ed6\u82f1\u96c4\u6240\u898b\u7565\u540c\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u300c\u5b8c\u5168\u81ea\u7531\u7af6\u722d\u5047\u8a2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u6211\u5011\u77ad\u89e3\u5e02\u5834\u904b\u4f5c\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u7406\u300d\uff0c\u300c\u9664\u975e\u6709\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u6cd5\u898f\u4e0a\u7684\u4fdd\u969c\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4ea4\u6548\u662f\u5e38\u898f\uff0c\u800c\u66a2\u9808\u7121\u7919\u7684\u904b\u4f5c\u624d\u662f\u4f8b\u5916\u300d\uff0c\u5012\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u5e38\u8b58\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u4ea6\u6709\u63d0\u53ca\u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u7406\u8ad6\u300d\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\u5206\u6790\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u975e\u7dda\u6027\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6211\u770b\u904e\u539f\u8457\u4e26\u5341\u5206\u8a8d\u540c\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6587\u4e2d\u8aaa\u4e5d\u4e09\u5e74\u80a1\u707d\u4e00\u8216\u6e05\u888b\u7684\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1LTCM\u7684\u300c\u512a\u7f8e\u516c\u5f0f\u6575\u4e0d\u904e\u8b8a\u5e7b\u83ab\u6e2c\u7684\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u300d\uff0c\u5be6\u60c5\u662f\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u4e5f\u6709\u8a08\u932f\u6578\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u5047\u8a2d\u4e86\u4ed6\u5011\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u4e0d\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u57fa\u672c\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u8d8a\u505a\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u70ba\u628a\u5728\u516c\u5f0f\u4e2d\u539f\u672c\u4e0d\u76f8\u5e72\u7684\u7368\u7acb\u51fd\u6578\u9023\u7d50\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u8b93\u516c\u5f0f\u7121\u6548\u5316\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u4e5f\u63d0\u53ca\u82f1\u5973\u7687\u554f\u300c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u82f1\u570b\u6709\u9019\u9ebc\u591a\u4e00\u6d41\u8ca1\u7d93\u5c08\u5bb6\u548c\u5b78\u8005\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u4ed6\u5011\u7adf\u7136\u6c92\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u80fd\u9810\u5148\u770b\u5230\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u7684\u4f86\u81e8\u300d\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u65e9\u65bc\u96f6\u516d\u5e74\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u4eba\u96dc\u8a8c\u5df2\u4e0d\u65b7\u8b66\u544a\u91d1\u878d\u6ce1\u6cac\u7684\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u62d6\u4e86\u4e09\u5e74\u628a\u6ce1\u6cac\u5439\u5f97\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u624d\u56e0\u6b21\u6309\u5371\u6a5f\u70ba\u5f15\u5b50\u7206\u7834\u3002\u7576\u5e74\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u640d\u5931\u6158\u91cd\uff0c\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u5531\u6de1\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u5982John Paulson\u65e9\u5df2\u4f5c\u597d\u6e96\u5099\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u90a3\u5e74\u70ba\u4ed6\u5011\u5e36\u4f86\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u7ae0\u672b\u4f5c\u8005\u6279\u8a55\u300c\u4e0d\u65b7\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u624d\u80fd\u89e3\u6c7a\u5404\u7a2e\u793e\u6703\u548c\u74b0\u5883\u554f\u984c\u300d\uff0c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u300c\u4e0d\u65b7\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u9032\u6b65\u300d\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u300d\u624d\u80fd\u89e3\u6c7a\u554f\u984c\u5427\u3002\u4ed6\u4ea6\u5f15\u7528\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u7684\u8aaa\u8a71\u300c\u76f8\u4fe1\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u9650\u7684\u9ad4\u7cfb\u4e2d\u8ffd\u6c42\u7121\u9650\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u8981\u4e0d\u662f\u500b\u760b\u5b50\u4fbf\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u300d\uff0c\u8667\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u662f\u9999\u6e2f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e4b\u7236\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u7684\u800c\u4e14\u78ba\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u9650\u9ad4\u4fc2\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u679c\u653e\u773c\u7121\u9650\u7684\u5b87\u5b99\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6c38\u7121\u6b62\u5883\u7684\u589e\u9577\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5728\u4eba\u985e\u79d1\u6280\u767c\u5c55\u80fd\u5920\u79fb\u6c11\u5916\u592a\u7a7a\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u662f\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u9650\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u4e00\u96bb\u540d\u5b57\u53eb\u5730\u7403\u7684\u592a\u7a7a\u8239\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5011\u5728\u627e\u5230\u66ff\u4ee3\u54c1\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u8981\u597d\u597d\u73cd\u60dc\u4fdd\u8b77\u5730\u7403\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e5d\u7ae0\uff1a\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5b78\u6d3e\u7684\u8ff7\u601d<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5b78\u6d3e\u4f5c\u70ba\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u5b78\u8853\u91cd\u93ae\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u6210\u70ba\u4f5c\u8005\u6279\u8a55\u7684\u5c0d\u50cf\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u63cf\u8ff0\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5b78\u6d3e\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u5927\u81f4\u6b63\u78ba\uff0c\u53ea\u4e0d\u904e\u5176\u8ca0\u9762\u5f71\u97ff\u5247\u8207\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0d\u4e4e\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u8aaa\u300c\u76e3\u7ba1\u5546\u754c\u7684\u53cd\u58df\u65b7\u6cd5\u540d\u5b58\u5be6\u4ea1\u300d\uff0c\u5be6\u60c5\u662f\u829d\u52a0\u5b78\u6d3e\u4e00\u6a23\u53cd\u5c0d\u640d\u5bb3\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u58df\u65b7\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u53cd\u5c0d\u70ba\u62c6\u6563\u516c\u53f8\u800c\u62c6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u53cd\u58df\u65b7\u3002\u65e9\u5e74\u5e7e\u5e74\u5fae\u8edf\u4fbf\u56e0\u9055\u6cd5\u53cd\u58df\u65b7\u6cd5\u800c\u53d7\u7f70\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u53cd\u58df\u65b7\u6cd5\u53eb\u505cAT&T\u7684\u6536\u8cfc\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u860b\u679c\u548cGoogle\u4e5f\u53d7\u53cd\u58df\u65b7\u6cd5\u8abf\u67e5\uff0c\u600e\u80fd\u8aaa\u53cd\u58df\u65b7\u6cd5\u540d\u5b58\u5be6\u4ea1\u5462\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u8aaa\u300c\u5217\u6839\u5411\u4f01\u696d\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u6e1b\u7a05\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6e1b\u7a05\u6703\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u56e0\u4e9b\u653f\u5e9c\u7a05\u6536\u5c07\u6703\u4e0d\u6e1b\u53cd\u5347\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u5275\u65b0\u7406\u8ad6\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u9a19\u5c40\u300d\u3002\u5927\u8a71\u6015\u8a08\u6578\uff0c\u5217\u6839\u57281982\u5e74\u6e1b\u7a05\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5e74\u7a05\u6536\u5f9e617B\u5927\u8dcc600B\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u7b2c\u4e09\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u53cd\u5f48\uff0c\u52301989\u5e74\u5217\u6839\u9000\u4f11\u6642\uff0c\u7a05\u6536\u5df2\u589e\u9577\u81f3991B\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6587\u4e2d\u8aaa\u300c\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6a19\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\u6210\u4e86\u9996\u8981\u4efb\u52d9\uff0c\u4fdd\u969c\u5c31\u696d\u88ab\u8feb\u9760\u908a\u7ad9\u300d\u300270\u5e74\u4ee3\u672a\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u9ad8\u4f01\u905410%\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u505c\u6eef\u4e0d\u524d\u4eba\u6c11\u751f\u6d3b\u82e6\u4e0d\u52d8\u8a00\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u523b\u610f\u7121\u8996\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u3002\u901a\u8139\u8207\u5c31\u696d\u7387\u53ea\u80fd\u4e8c\u63c0\u4e00\u662f\u4e3b\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u5e38\u8b58\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u600e\u6a23\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u53cd\u8f49\u9019\u9ebc\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u5b9a\u5f8b\u3002\u7576\u7136\u5982\u679c\u6709\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u80fd\u627e\u51fa\u901a\u8139\u8207\u5c31\u696d\u7387\u96d9\u8d0f\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u80af\u5b9a\u7acb\u5373\u63da\u540d\u7acb\u842c\u7a69\u596a\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u300c\u7a05\u6536\u662f\u5929\u4e0b\u9593\u6700\u5927\u7684\u60e1\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5b98\u50da\u7ba1\u7406\u5927\u7b46\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u9322\u6642\uff0c\u5fc5\u7136\u6548\u76ca\u4f4e\u4e0b\u505a\u6210\u6d6a\u8cbb\u300d\uff0c\u4ed6\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u53cd\u5c0d\u8ad6\u9ede\uff0c\u7adf\u7136\u62ff\u300c\u5e02\u5834\u5316\u7684\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u8a08\u5283\u300d\u8207\u4e2d\u592e\u516c\u7a4d\u91d1\u6bd4\u8f03\u3002\u5929\u5440\uff01\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u662f\u5b98\u5546\u52fe\u7d50\u7684\u7522\u54c1\uff0c\u57fa\u91d1\u4f6c\u5f37\u6436\u4eba\u6c11\u8ca1\u7522\uff0c\u4f55\u5e02\u5834\u5316\u6709\u4e4b\uff0c\u829d\u52a0\u5b78\u6d3e\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u8df3\u51fa\u4f86\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5fd8\u8a18\u4e86\u7576\u5e74\u9999\u6e2f\u53f3\u6d3e\u5b78\u8005\u5f37\u70c8\u53cd\u5c0d\u300c\u5f37\u8feb\u91d1\u300d\uff0c\u5230\u73fe\u5728\u4e5f\u4e00\u76f4\u8981\u6c42\u7648\u9664\u300c\u5f37\u8feb\u91d1\u300d\u55ce\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u6211\u5341\u5206\u8a8d\u540c\u4f5c\u8005\u5c0d\u300c\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\u300d(Efficient Market Hypothesis)\u7684\u6279\u8a55\uff0c\u73fe\u5be6\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u56e0\u70ba\u8cc7\u8a0a\u4e0d\u5e73\u885d\u548c\u52d5\u614b\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u5b8c\u5168\u6709\u6548\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u7406\u6027\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u4f46\u7fa4\u9ad4\u7e3d\u5408\u8d77\u4f86\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4eba\u6240\u5171\u77e5\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5e38\u8b58\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u4f5c\u8005\u628a\u5229\u5df2\u4e3b\u7fa9(self-interest)\uff0c\u7b49\u540c\u70ba\u96fb\u5f71\u300c\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u300d\u4e2d\u300c\u8caa\u5a6a\u5c31\u662f\u597d\uff01\u300d(Greed is good)\uff0c\u537b\u72af\u4e86\u5077\u63db\u6168\u5ff5\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5f15\u7528Markets Don\u2019t Fail\u4e00\u6bb5\u6587\u5b57\uff0c\u6211\u525b\u597d\u770b\u904e\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u3002\u8981\u6b63\u78ba\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u5229\u5df2\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u5c0d\u6bd4\u5f37\u8feb\u4eba\u4eba\u7121\u79c1\u5949\u737b\u7684\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3002\u5229\u5df2\u4e3b\u7fa9\u53cd\u5c0d\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u53cd\u5c0d\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u5c0d\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u541e\u4f54\u7684\u751f\u7522\u7d50\u679c(entitlement to other people’s money)\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8aaa\u8d77\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5b78\u6d3e\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u8aaa\u4ed6\u5011\u8207\u667a\u5229\u7368\u88c1\u8005\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u6279\u8a55\u7684\u4eba\u4ed6\u5011\u52a9\u7d02\u70ba\u8650\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u70ba\u667a\u5229\u6253\u597d\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u790e\u662f\u4e0d\u722d\u7684\u4e8b\u5be6\u3002\u667a\u5229\u662f\u5357\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u52a0\u5165OECD\u767c\u9054\u570b\u5bb6\u7d44\u7e54\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u5176\u4eba\u5747GDP\u548c\u4eba\u6c11\u751f\u6d3b\u8cea\u7d20\u9ad8\u65bc\u5357\u7f8e\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u8a08\u7b97\u8ca7\u5bcc\u61f8\u6b8a\u7684\u5805\u5c3c\u7cfb\u6578(Gini Co-efficient)\u66f4\u662f\u4e00\u76f4\u6e1b\u4f4e\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u7ae0\u672b\u5f15\u8ff0\u6d77\u8036\u514b\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u8aaa\u8a71\u300c\u8f03\u4e4b\u6c92\u6709\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u6211\u66f4\u504f\u611b\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7368\u88c1\u7d71\u6cbb\u300d\uff0c\u6211\u5f88\u5947\u602a\u4e00\u5411\u4ee5\u53cd\u5c0d\u7368\u88c1\u898b\u7a31\u7684\u6d77\u8036\u514b\u70ba\u4f55\u6703\u8aaa\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u8a71\u3002\u6211\u4e0a\u7db2\u67e5\u770b\u539f\u6587\uff0c\u539f\u4f86\u4f5c\u8005\u65b7\u7ae0\u53d6\u7fa9\uff0c\u628a\u6d77\u8036\u514b\u7684\u610f\u601d\u6b6a\u66f2\u4e86\u3002\u539f\u6587\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n

\nAs long term institutions, I am totally against dictatorships. But a dictatorship may be a necessary system for a transitional period. […] Personally I prefer a liberal dictator to democratic government lacking liberalism. My personal impression \u2013 and this is valid for South America \u2013 is that in Chile, for example, we will witness a transition from a dictatorial government to a liberal government.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u6d77\u8036\u514b\u7684\u539f\u610f\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u4e0d\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u7368\u88c1\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u6b65\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u548c\u81ea\u7531\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5be7\u53ef\u66ab\u6642\u9078\u64c7\u958b\u660e\u7684\u7368\u88c1\u8005\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u5805\u4fe1\u7d93\u6fdf\u81ea\u7531\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u82e5\u6c92\u6709\u7d93\u6fdf\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u5b88\u8b77\uff0c\u5fc5\u7136\u6703\u9000\u6b65\u8d70\u4e0a\u7368\u88c1\u7684\u56de\u982d\u8def\u3002\u800c\u4e8b\u5be6\u8b49\u660e\u667a\u5229\u7d93\u6fdf\u8d77\u98db\u5f8c\uff0c\u65bc\u4e5d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u4fbf\u6b65\u5165\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u800c\u7368\u88c1\u8005\u76ae\u8afe\u5951\u7279\u5c07\u8ecd\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u4e5f\u70ba\u4ed6\u7684\u7f6a\u884c\u53d7\u5230\u6cd5\u5f8b\u5be9\u5224\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u5341\u7ae0\uff1a\u300c\u8a8d\u8b58\u300d\u8207\u300c\u5229\u76ca\u300d<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9019\u7ae0\u6279\u8a55\u300c\u5b98\uff0c\u5546\uff0c\u5b78\u300d\u52fe\u7d50\uff0c\u5927\u4f01\u696d\u8207\u653f\u5e9c\u9593\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u8f38\u9001\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u50be\u659c\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u300c\u5c0b\u79df\u884c\u70ba\u300d\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8aaa\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u7121\u8996\u9019\u4e9b\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u9019\u4e9b\u554f\u984c\u7684\u5b78\u8853\u5e6b\u5147\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u6211\u8a8d\u8b58\u7684\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f35\u5c0f\u653f\u5e9c\u9650\u5236\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\uff0c\u53cd\u5230\u4efb\u4f55\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u88dc\u8cbc\uff0c\u675c\u7d55\u5927\u4f01\u696d\u5de6\u53f3\u653f\u5e9c\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u8b93\u653f\u5ba2\u4ee5\u6b0a\u8b00\u79c1\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u4f5c\u8005\u4e00\u5b9a\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5730\u65b9\u8aa4\u89e3\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u672c\u7ae0\u958b\u51fa\u5f88\u9577\u66f8\u55ae\uff0c\u8b93\u8b80\u8005\u81ea\u5df2\u8a8d\u8b58\u5169\u65b9\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u53ef\u60dc\u4f5c\u8005\u6c92\u6709\u6df1\u5165\u6574\u7406\u66f8\u672c\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u6279\u8a55\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7f8e\u570b\u525d\u524a\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u53cd\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u5316\u4e0b\u570b\u8207\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u53c8\u6c92\u6709\u63d0\u51fa\u6bcf\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u61c9\u81ea\u7d66\u81ea\u8db3\u7684\u4fdd\u8b77\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4ed6\u5728\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u5982\u4f55\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u4fdd\u8b77\u4e3b\u7fa9\u65e9\u5df2\u88ab\u8b49\u660e\u884c\u4e0d\u901a\uff0c\u90a3\u53ef\u662f\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u8085\u689d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u7c21\u63a5\u5c0e\u81f4\u5f8c\u4f86\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7ae0\u672b\u8cea\u7591\u300c\u7522\u6b0a\u754c\u5b9a\u53ef\u52a9\u812b\u8ca7\u300d\uff0c\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u5927\u65b9\u5411\u6b63\u78ba\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u5148\u6c7a\u689d\u4ef6\u662f\u6cd5\u5236\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u7684\u8ca1\u7522\u5f97\u5230\u4fdd\u969c\u7684\u5927\u524d\u984c\u4e0b\u624d\u53ef\u884c\u3002\u300c\u5708\u5730\u300d\u5f0f\u7684\u9a45\u9010\u548c\u5f37\u4f54\uff0c\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u5b98\u54e1\u5982\u540c\u5f37\u76dc\u822c\u7684\u63a0\u596a\u884c\u70ba\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u5341\u4e00\u7ae0\uff1a\u300c\u8a8d\u8b58\u300d\u7684\u8ff7\u9663<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9019\u7ae0\u4e3b\u8981\u6f84\u6e05\u5de6\u53f3\u5169\u6d3e\u7406\u8ad6\u5c0d\u4e00\u4e9b\u6b77\u53f2\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u89e3\u91cb\uff0c\u4e00\u5171\u6536\u96c6\u4e86\u5341\u4e8c\u689d\u5e38\u807d\u5230\u9805\u76ee\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u5148\u9673\u8ff0\u7684\u53f3\u6d3e\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u518d\u9673\u8ff0\u5de6\u6d3e\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u53ea\u8aaa\u7acb\u5834\u63a8\u8ad6\u6b20\u5949\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u5de6\u53f3\u96d9\u65b9\u8ab0\u5c0d\u8ab0\u932f\uff0c\u6211\u81ea\u554f\u6c92\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u9010\u4e00\u56de\u61c9\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u689d\u9805\u76ee\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7368\u7acb\u6210\u66f8\u8a0e\u8ad6\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u5de6\u6d3e\u89c0\u9ede\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u516c\u773e\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u8a8d\u77e5\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u76f8\u5c0d\u4e00\u4e9b\u53f3\u6d3e\u89c0\u9ede\u624d\u662f\u53e6\u985e\u5e38\u8b58\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u59a8\u8aaa\u8aaa\u6bcf\u4e00\u689d\u9805\u76ee\u6211\u7684\u898b\u89e3\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u597d\u4e9b\u9805\u76ee\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8207\u4f5c\u8005\u6301\u76f8\u540c\u89c0\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n

1.\u300c\u8070\u660e\u548c\u52e4\u596e\u662f\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5fc5\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7aae\u4eba\u6216\u7aae\u570b\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u7aae\uff0c\u5fc5\u5b9a\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u5011\u53c8\u8822\u53c8\u61f6\u300d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u8b80\u66f8\u8003\u8a66\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u9ad8\u5206\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u52e4\u529b\uff0c\u4f4e\u5206\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u61f6\u8eb2\uff0c\u73fe\u5be6\u4e2d\u5f88\u591a\u6642\u7531\u904b\u6c23\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u5426\u5b9a\u52aa\u529b\u8207\u6210\u679c\u9084\u662f\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u76e1\u7ba1\u4e0d\u662f\u5305\u751f\u4ed4\u7684\u5fc5\u7136\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u8a8d\u70ba\u7aae\u570b\u4eba\u7aae\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u5011\u8822\u548c\u61f6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0d\u5e78\u751f\u5728\u5236\u5ea6\u51fa\u932f\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u6b77\u53f2\u8b49\u660e\uff0c\u963f\u6839\u5ead\u8d70\u4e0a\u9589\u95dc\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u8def\uff0c\u5f9e\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5341\u5927\u5f37\u570b\uff0c\u6dea\u70ba\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7aae\u570b\u3002\u53cd\u89c0\u4e9e\u6d32\u56db\u5c0f\u9f8d\u7531\u6578\u5341\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u7531\u7aae\u570b\u6649\u8eab\u5bcc\u570b\u884c\u5217\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u8207\u6b50\u7f8e\u4e00\u6c7a\u96cc\u96c4\u3002<\/p>\n

2.\u300c\u6eef\u8139(stagflation)\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\u8b49\u660e\u4e86\u51f1\u56e0\u65af\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u5931\u6557\u300d\u3002\u4e3b\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u8ab2\u66f8\u6703\u544a\u8a22\u4f60\uff0cOPEC\u77f3\u6cb9\u7981\u904b\u62ac\u9ad8\u6cb9\u50f9\uff0c\u7684\u78ba\u662f\u6eef\u8139\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6210\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u300c\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u300d\u5236\u5ea6\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5e36\u4f86\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4e0d\u6bd4\u53d6\u6d88\u300c\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u300d\u800c\u7522\u751f\u7684\u554f\u984c\u597d\u5f97\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u3002\u6975\u7aef\u7684\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u6703\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\uff0c\u8ca8\u5e63\u4f9b\u61c9\u81a8\u6f32\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u653f\u5e9c\u4e82\u5370\u9322\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u61c9\u8a72\u8981\u53d6\u6d88\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff0c\u628a\u9214\u7968\u767c\u884c\u4ea4\u7d66\u5e02\u5834\u8ca0\u8cac\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u9019\u662f\u500b\u60f3\u6cd5\u73fe\u5be6\u4e0a\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u884c\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u9023\u6211\u9019\u500b\u53f3\u6d3e\u807d\u4e86\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7981\u541e\u4e00\u53e3\u6c34\uff0c\u5fc3\u60f3\u662f\u9019\u662f\u8aaa\u8a8d\u771f\u7684\u9084\u662f\u958b\u73a9\u7b11\u3002<\/p>\n

3.\u300c\u65e5\u672c\u65bc\u4e5d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u662f\u653f\u7b56\u932f\u8aa4\u5f15\u81f4\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u662f\u548e\u7531\u81ea\u53d6\u7684\u300d\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u903c\u65e5\u5713\u5347\u503c\u662f\u4e8b\u5be6\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u9280\u884c\u9ad4\u7cfb\u8150\u6557\u548c\u5730\u7522\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e5f\u662f\u4e8b\u5be6\uff0c\u800c\u65e5\u672c\u81ea\u8eab\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u88ab\u570b\u5167\u8ca1\u95a5\u58df\u65b7\uff0c\u9762\u5c0d\u4e9e\u6d32\u5404\u570b\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u58d3\u529b\u7b49\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u8870\u843d\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u932f\u7e31\u8907\u96dc\uff0c\u5f88\u96e3\u602a\u8cac\u4efb\u4f55\u55ae\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n

4.\u300c\u5747\u5bcc\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u56b4\u91cd\u5f71\u97ff\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u800c\u57fa\u65bc\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u5217\u6839\u4e3b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\uff0c\u5247\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u7a7a\u524d\u7684\u7e41\u69ae\u300d\u3002\u662f\u5217\u6839\u904b\u6c23\u597d\u4e5f\u597d\uff0c\u4e03\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e0a\u4efb\u5f8c\u63a8\u52d5\u7d93\u6fdf\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662fGPD\u9084\u662f\u5be6\u8cea\u5de5\u8cc7\u4e5f\u6709\u5f37\u52c1\u7684\u589e\u9577\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u8aaa\u7f8e\u570b\u7a7a\u524d\u7684\u7e41\u69ae\uff0c\u514b\u6797\u9813\u6bd4\u5217\u6839\u66f4\u597d\u904b\u6c23\uff0c\u4ed6\u96d6\u7136\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u504f\u53f3\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u6e1b\u8d64\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6bd4\u5217\u6839\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7406\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n

5.\u300c\u6e1b\u7a05\u53cd\u6703\u4ee4\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u7a05\u6536\u589e\u52a0\u300d\u3002\u9019\u500b\u8ff7\u601d\u4e0a\u6587\u5df2\u63d0\u904e\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u7684\u78ba\u5982\u662f\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u554f\u984c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u6e1b\u7a05\u9019\u6a23\u7c21\u55ae\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8981\u7cbe\u7c21\u7a05\u5236\uff0c\u6ec5\u5c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5411\u5927\u4f01\u696d\u6216\u58d3\u529b\u5718\u9ad4\uff0c\u501f\u7a05\u52d9\u512a\u60e0\u4f5c\u51fa\u5229\u76ca\u8f38\u9001\u3002<\/p>\n

6.\u300c\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u5c11\u6578\u4eba\u7684\u8caa\u5a6a\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u758f\u65bc\u76e3\u7ba1\u300d\u3002\u4e0a\u4e00\u7ae0\u5df2\u8aaa\u904e\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9810\u7684\u9053\u5fb7\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u5728\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u9a0e\u52ab\u653f\u5e9c\u9019\u9ede\u4e0a\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u8207\u4f5c\u8005\u82f1\u96c4\u6240\u898b\u7565\u540c\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8aaa\u53d6\u6d88Glass-Steagall Act\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u4e5f\u6709\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u53d6\u6d88\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5927\u944a\u3002\u6211\u8a8d\u70baGlass-Steagall Act\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u4e00\u689d\u904e\u6642\u7684\u6cd5\u4f8b\uff0c\u5b58\u6b3e\u548c\u6295\u8cc7\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u5206\u5272\u7684\u540c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14Glass-Steagall Act\u672c\u8eab\u6f0f\u6d1e\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u65e9\u5df2\u540d\u5b58\u5be6\u4ea1\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u4e00\u7d19\u7a7a\u6587\u3002\u518d\u8005\u653f\u5e9c\u6709\u5b58\u6b3e\u4fdd\u969c\uff0c\u5c0f\u5b58\u6236\u5728\u9280\u884c\u7684\u5132\u84c4\uff0c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u4e0b\u7d72\u6beb\u7121\u640d\u3002<\/p>\n

7.\u300c\u6578\u4ee5\u5104\u8a41\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u4eba\u5f97\u4ee5\u812b\u8ca7\u4e43\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u300d\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u5168\u7403\u5316\u662f\u7121\u53ef\u7f6e\u7591\u7684\u4e8b\u5be6\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u5169\u500b\u570b\u8ca7\u5bcc\u61f8\u6b8a\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u592a\u81ea\u7531\u9084\u662f\u4e0d\u5920\u81ea\u7531\uff0c\u4e3b\u6d41\u7406\u8ad6\u662f\u76f8\u4fe1\u5f8c\u8005\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u63d0\u51fa\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u529b\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u3002\u6211\u81ea\u5df2\u5247\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u8ca7\u5bcc\u61f8\u6b8a\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u6c92\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u624d\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n

8.\u300c\u9999\u6e2f\u662f\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u5f97\u4ee5\u8cab\u5fb9\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u4f8b\u5b50\u300d\u3002\u6e2f\u82f1\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u9999\u6e2f\uff0c\u7684\u78ba\u76f8\u5c0d\u4e0a\u662f\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u300c\u6a21\u7bc4\u751f\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u56de\u6b78\u5f8c\u6c92\u6709\u82f1\u570b\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5f8c\u8cad\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u81ea\u7531\u4e00\u908a\u908a\u6162\u6162\u8b8a\u8cea\uff0c\u8b8a\u6210\u63a0\u596a\u5f0f\u7684\u5f37\u6b0a\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u5b8c\u5168\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u561b\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u76ee\u524d\u552f\u6b62\u9084\u672a\u66fe\u51fa\u73fe\u904e\u3002<\/p>\n

9.\u300c\u5b8c\u5168\u958b\u653e\u5e02\u5834\u662f\u570b\u5bb6\u7d93\u6fdf\u9a30\u98db\u7684\u5fc5\u7d93\u4e4b\u8def\u300d\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\uff0c\u5728\u570b\u8207\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u7af6\u722d\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u53cd\u5c0d\u77ed\u66ab\u4fdd\u8b77\u57f9\u990a\u65b0\u8208\u884c\u696d\u3002\u65b0\u8208\u884c\u696d\u6709\u7acb\u8db3\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u958b\u653e\u5e02\u5834\u662f\u6700\u7d42\u76ee\u6a19\u3002\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u53cd\u5c0d\u4fdd\u8b77\u65e2\u5f97\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u65e5\u843d\u884c\u696d\uff0c\u53c8\u6216\u8005\u5169\u570b\u4e92\u76f8\u758a\u7acb\u4fdd\u8b77\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u57ce\u7246\uff0c\u5012\u4e0d\u5982\u8b93\u5169\u570b\u5e02\u5834\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u8b93\u5169\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u5f15\u5165\u66f4\u591a\u7af6\u722d\uff0c\u6709\u7af6\u722d\u624d\u6709\u9032\u6b65\u3002\u5c0f\u570b\u5411\u5927\u570b\u958b\u653e\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u5c0f\u570b\u4ea6\u7b49\u65bc\u7372\u53d6\u5927\u570b\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5165\u5834\u5377\u3002\u9ad8\u547c\u8cbf\u6613\u4fdd\u8b77\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u6642\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u5927\u570b\u7684\u65e2\u5f97\u5229\u76ca\u8005\uff0c\u6050\u61fc\u66f4\u6709\u6d3b\u529b\u7684\u5c0f\u570b\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u3002<\/p>\n

10.\u300c\u7f8e\u570b\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u4eba\u73cd\u8996\u50b3\u7d71\u50f9\u503c\u800c\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u4eba\u5247\u9f13\u5439\u653e\u7e31\u300d\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u770b\u4f86\u8aa4\u6703\u4e86\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7b49\u540c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9805\u76ee\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u53d6\u614b\u63a5\u8fd1\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u5247\u63a5\u8fd1\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u3002<\/p>\n

\"Republican<\/p>\n

11.\u300c\u81ea\u96f6\u516b\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6b50\u50b5\u5371\u6a5f\u8f03\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u5c0d\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e36\u4f86\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u7834\u58de\u548c\u5a01\u8105\u300d\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u6b50\u50b5\u5371\u6a5f\u662f\u5426\u6bd4\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u4f46\u6b50\u8c6c\u56db\u570b\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u80af\u5b9a\u4e0d\u95dc\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u4e8b\uff0c\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\u5e0c\u81d8\u6b63\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u63a8\u884c\u798f\u5229\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u624d\u843d\u5f97\u5982\u65af\u7530\u5730\u3002<\/p>\n

12.\u300c\u6700\u4f4e\u5de5\u8cc7\u7684\u56f0\u60d1\u300d\u3002\u5931\u696d\u7387\u548c\u901a\u6f32\u53d7\u592a\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u7406\u8ad6\u9084\u7d93\u6fdf\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u73fe\u5be6\u5f88\u96e3\u8aaa\u6700\u4f4e\u5de5\u8cc7\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u58de\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u9078\u64c7\u7528\u82f1\u570b\u4f5c\u6b63\u9762\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u53cd\u5c0d\u7684\u4eba\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f15\u7528\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u6700\u4f4e\u5de5\u8cc7\u7e3d\u9ad4\u4e0a\u597d\u9084\u662f\u58de\uff0c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u7576\u5730\u4eba\u6c11\u63d0\u5347\u6280\u8853\u8f49\u578b\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u6709\u4e00\u9ede\u53ef\u4ee5\u80af\u5b9a\uff0c\u5de5\u8cc7\u904e\u4f4e\u4e0d\u5229\u9ad8\u79d1\u6280\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u6700\u4f4e\u5de5\u8cc7\u7684\u5de5\u7a2e\uff0c\u9577\u9060\u61c9\u8a72\u63a8\u884c\u81ea\u52d5\u5316\u4ee5\u96fb\u8166\u548c\u6a5f\u68b0\u53d6\u4ee3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u5341\u4e8c\u7ae0\uff1a\u300c\u5fa9\u8f9f\u300d\u8207\u300c\u53cd\u5fa9\u8f9f\u300d\u7684\u9b25\u722d<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9019\u7ae0\u6c92\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5be6\u8cea\u5167\u5bb9\uff0c\u4e0d\u5916\u91cd\u8986\u524d\u6587\u7684\u8ad6\u8abf\uff0c\u7f85\u5217\u4e00\u4e9b\u8fd1\u5e74\u53f3\u6d3e\u53cd\u99c1\u5de6\u6d3e\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u53e3\u865f\u5f0f\u7684\u53cd\u5c0d\u53f3\u6d3e\u5fa9\u8f9f\uff0c\u6211\u5c31\u6b64\u7565\u904e\u4e0d\u4f5c\u6279\u8a55\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u5341\u4e09\u7ae0\uff1a\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9019\u7ae0\u958b\u9996\u958b\u5b97\u660e\u7fa9\u6279\u8a55\u300c\u80a1\u6771\u5229\u76ca\u6700\u5927\u5316\u7684\u4f01\u696d\u6587\u5316\u300d\uff0c\u4e26\u6307\u9019\u7a2e\u6587\u5316\u4e0d\u6307\u5c0d\u793e\u6703\u6709\u5bb3\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u9577\u9060\u800c\u8a00\u6709\u5bb3\u5c0d\u516c\u53f8\u672c\u8eab\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u66f4\u5f15\u7528\u4f5b\u5229\u6c11\u5c0d\u300c\u4f01\u696d\u793e\u6703\u8cac\u4efb\u300d\u7684\u8a00\u8ad6\uff0c\u300c\u4f01\u696d\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u793e\u6703\u8cac\u4efb\u4fbf\u662f\u8b00\u53d6\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u300d\u3002\u9996\u5148\u6211\u8981\u6307\u51fa\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u7576\u4e2d\u4e5f\u6709\u53cd\u5c0d\u7d66\u8207\u4f01\u696d\u300c\u6cd5\u4eba\u300d\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u8072\u97f3\uff0c\u5176\u6b21\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u90fd\u8a8d\u540c\u300c\u80a1\u6771\u5229\u76ca\u6700\u5927\u5316\u300d\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5b78\u6d3e\u7684\u91cd\u91cf\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u4e0a\u6587\u63d0\u53ca\u767c\u660e\u300c\u9ad8\u65af\u5b9a\u5f8b\u300d\u7684\u9ad8\u65af\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u6210\u540d\u4f5c\u662f\u300c\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u672c\u8cea\u300d\uff0c\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u516c\u53f8\u53ea\u662f\u56e0\u8457\u964d\u4f4e\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u884d\u751f\u51fa\u4f86\u7d44\u7e54\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u7406\u7ba1\u5b78\u6559\u7236Peter Ducker\uff0c\u5247\u8a8d\u70ba\u516c\u53f8\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5275\u9020\u9867\u5ba2\uff0c\u5229\u6f64\u53ea\u662f\u8b49\u660e\u65b9\u5411\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81f3\u65bc\u4f5b\u5229\u6c11\u7684\u8a00\u8ad6\uff0c\u6211\u53c3\u770b\u904e\u4f5b\u5229\u6587\u520a\u65bc\u5728\u7d10\u7d04\u6642\u5831\u539f\u6587\uff0c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u4f5c\u8005\u65b7\u7ae0\u53d6\u7fa9\u4e4b\u5acc\u3002\u4f5b\u5229\u6587\u7684\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u516c\u53f8\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u500b\u4eba\u610f\u5fd7\uff0c\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u7684\u8cac\u4efb\u662f\u4ee3\u66ff\u80a1\u6771\u770b\u7ba1\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u79c1\u4e0b\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u628a\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u9322\u4f86\u505a\u300c\u516c\u773e\u5229\u76ca\u300d\uff0c\u90a3\u4ed6\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u6177\u4ed6\u4eba\u4e4b\u6168\uff0c\u9055\u53cd\u80a1\u6771\u548c\u54e1\u5de5\u7684\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u90a3\u4e9b\u7528\u4f86\u505a\u300c\u516c\u773e\u5229\u76ca\u300d\u7684\u9322\uff0c\u539f\u672c\u662f\u5c6c\u65bc\u80a1\u6771\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u548c\u54e1\u5de5\u7684\u85aa\u91d1\u3002\u4f5b\u5229\u6c11\u4e26\u4e0d\u53cd\u5c0d\u57fa\u65bc\u5546\u696d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7684\u300c\u516c\u773e\u5229\u76ca\u300d\uff0c\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u96d9\u8d0f\u7684\u6700\u597d\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u4f5b\u5229\u6c11\u4ea6\u4e0d\u53cd\u5c0d\u80a1\u6771\u6216\u54e1\u5de5\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5be7\u53ef\u5c11\u8cfa\u4e00\u9ede\u9322\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u9593\u63a5\u6388\u6b0a\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u63a8\u884c\u300c\u516c\u773e\u5229\u76ca\u300d\uff0c\u90a3\u662f\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u81ea\u8eab\u5f62\u50cf\u3002\u4f01\u696d\u6c92\u6709\u81ea\u6211\u72a7\u7272\u7684\u8cac\u4efb\uff0c\u4f46\u81ea\u9858\u6027\u8cea\u7684\u300c\u516c\u773e\u5229\u76ca\u300d\u5247\u662f\u7121\u59a8\u3002\u6253\u500b\u6bd4\u55bb\uff0c\u81ea\u9858\u6350\u9322\u884c\u5584\u62b5\u8b9a\uff0c\u4f46\u5f37\u8feb\u6350\u9322\u5247\u53eb\u6253\u52ab\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u4f5c\u8005\u5f15\u6587\u6f0f\u4e86\u4e0b\u534a\u53e5\uff0c\u4f5b\u5229\u6c11\u5927\u610f\u662f\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u541b\u4e4b\u611b\u8ca1\uff0c\u53d6\u4e4b\u6709\u9053\u300d\uff0c\u4ed6\u7d55\u5c0d\u4e0d\u8a8d\u540c\u70ba\u9032\u6c42\u5229\u6f64\u4e0d\u64c7\u624b\u6bb5\u7684\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u5982\u6b3a\u9a19\u9867\u5ba2\u6216\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u7af6\u722d\u7b49\u7b49\u3002(\u63d0\u5916\u8a71\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u627e\u9019\u9805\u8cc7\u6599\u6642\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u4f5b\u5229\u6c11\u958b\u5b97\u660e\u7fa9\u53cd\u5c0d\u76e3\u7344\u79c1\u71df\u5316\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u61c9\u8a72\u8981\u6536\u56de\u524d\u6587\u4e2d\u8aaa\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u628a\u76e3\u7344\u79c1\u71df\u5316\u7684\u8a71\u3002)<\/p>\n

\u81f3\u65bc\u9019\u7ae0\u4e0b\u534a\u6bb5\u5c0d\u6d88\u8cbb\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u6279\u8a55\uff0c\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u6642\u6211\u5df2\u56de\u61c9\u904e\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u6d88\u8cbb\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u4e3b\u7fa9\u662f\u5de6\u53f3\u5169\u6d3e\u7684\u5171\u540c\u6575\u4eba\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u4e5f\u6709\u63d0\u53ca\u300c\u4f54\u9818\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u300d\u904b\u52d5\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u4f5c\u8005\u4e26\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u5f88\u591a\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u4e5f\u652f\u6301\u300c\u4f54\u9818\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u300d\u3002\u5de6\u53f3\u6d3e\u5c0d\u73fe\u4eca\u793e\u6703\u6709\u554f\u984c\u9019\u9ede\u4e0a\u5012\u5f88\u6709\u5171\u8b58\uff0c\u5206\u6b67\u53ea\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u6c7a\u554f\u984c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u5341\u56db\u7ae0\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u8208\u4e4b\u8def<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u529b\u4e3b\u6253\u8981\u53cd\u8f49\u4e3b\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\uff0c\u5168\u66f8\u7684\u7e3d\u7d50\u537b\u5f88\u51fa\u5947\u5730\u56de\u6b78\u4e3b\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u3002\u300c\u5370\u9280\u7d19\u662f\u98f2\u9ce9\u6b62\u6e34\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7528\u4e00\u500b\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6ce1\u6cac\u4f86\u906e\u84cb\u8457\u539f\u4f86\u7684\u6ce1\u6cac\u300d\uff0c\u53f3\u6d3e\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u524d\u5df2\u5728\u8aaa\u4e86\u3002\u800c\u81f3\u4f5c\u8005\u958b\u51fa\u4e09\u689d\u300c\u4e09\u53bb\u300d\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u66f4\u96e2\u5947\u5927\u65b9\u5411\u5341\u5206\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9.\u7b2c\u4e00\u9ede\u662f\u300c\u53bb\u7f8e\u570b\u5316\u300d\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f35\u300c\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u4e4b\u5546\u8cbf\u6587\u6d41\u300d\uff0c\u54a6~ \u9019\u4e0d\u662f\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u7531\u8cbf\u6613\u55ce\uff1f\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9ede\u662f\u300c\u53bb\u91d1\u878d\u5316\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u8a08\u4f5c\u8005\u4e3b\u5f35\u52a0\u5f37\u653f\u5e9c\u6b0a\u529b\u7684\u57f7\u884c\u7d30\u7bc0\uff0c\u4f46\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u53bb\u9664\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u7684\u300c\u9053\u5fb7\u98a8\u96aa\u300d\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u53f3\u6d3e\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u65b9\u4fbf\u53ea\u662f\u5de6\u6d3e\u9632\u6b62\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u751f\u9577\u5f97\u592a\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u53f3\u6d3e\u7684\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6cd5\u5247\u66f4\u5fb9\u5e95\uff0c\u6539\u9769\u91d1\u878d\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0d\u8ad6\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u591a\u5927\u9593\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703too big to fail\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u6539\u8b8a\u7f8e\u5143\u4e00\u5e63\u7368\u5927\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u628a\u592e\u884c\u7121\u9650\u5370\u9214\u6b0a\u529b\u6536\u56de\uff0c\u6539\u70ba\u628a\u5e63\u8ca8\u8207\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u5be6\u7269\u639b\u920e\uff0c\u5927\u53f3\u6d3e\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u53ef\u5df1\u7d93\u8aaa\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5e74\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\u9ede\u300c\u53bb\u78b3\u5316\u300d\uff0c\u74b0\u4fdd\u74b0\u5883\u6551\u6551\u5730\u7403\uff0c\u5de6\u53f3\u5169\u6d3e\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u597d\u722d\u8b70\u3002\u5206\u5225\u53ea\u662f\u5de6\u6d3e\u4e3b\u5f35\u7528\u4e00\u5200\u5207\u5f0f\u7684\u78b3\u7a05\u6e1b\u6392\uff0c\u53f3\u6d3e\u5247\u4e3b\u5f35\u6210\u7acb\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u4ea4\u6613\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u5982\u5be6\u53cd\u6620\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u7684\u793e\u6703\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u5341\u4e94\u7ae0\uff1a\u91cd\u5efa\u300c\u7d93\u300d\u4e16\u300c\u6fdf\u300d\u6c11\u4e4b\u300c\u5b78\u300d<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u7ae0\u4f5c\u8005\u8aaa\u51fa\u4ed6\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u9858\u666f\uff0c\u518d\u958b\u51fa\u4e00\u5217\u9577\u9577\u7684\u66f8\u55ae\uff0c\u62cb\u4e0b\u4e00\u5927\u5806\u7d93\u6fdf\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u5c08\u6709\u540d\u8a5e\u3002\u5be6\u8cea\u5167\u5bb9\u4e0d\u591a\uff0c\u6211\u4ea6\u7121\u5f9e\u56de\u61c9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u611f\u60f3<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u82b1\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u6642\u9593\u5beb\u9019\u7bc7\u66f8\u8a55\uff0c\u91cd\u65b0\u6eab\u7fd2\u4ee5\u524d\u5b78\u904e\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u4e0a\u7db2\u5c0b\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u628a\u4ee5\u524d\u770b\u4e0d\u61c2\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u9023\u7d50\u8d77\u4f86\u5f8c\u6709\u65b0\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u9ad4\u6703\u3002\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u5beb\u4f5c\u6b64\u66f8\uff0c\u8b93\u4eba\u53cd\u601d\u4e3b\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u539f\u610f\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u65bc\u6211\u9019\u500b\u8b80\u8005\u8eab\u4e0a\u505a\u5230\u4e86\uff0c\u76e1\u7ba1\u6211\u53cd\u601d\u5f8c\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\uff0c\u8207\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u90a3\u4e00\u5957\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u5f8c\u8a18\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u958b\u59cb\u6642\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u7bc7\u842c\u9918\u5b57\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u6211\u9019\u4e00\u7bc7\u540c\u6a23\u662f\u842c\u9918\u5b57\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u6703\u770b\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u80fd\u60f3\u50cf\u5982\u4f5c\u8005\u822c\u6709\u51fa\u66f8\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u501f\u5beb\u9019\u7bc7\u66f8\u8a55\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u70ba\u6211\u81ea\u5df2\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u54f2\u5b78\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u7e3d\u7d50\uff0c\u5f04\u6e05\u695a\u597d\u597d\u8868\u9054\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u6168\u5ff5\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4ee5\u5f8c\u6211\u6703\u4e0d\u6703\u6539\u8b8a\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u662f\u6211\u9019\u4e00\u523b\u5c0d\u77e5\u8b58\u7684\u8ffd\u6c42\u5f97\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u9999\u6e2f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e4b\u7236\u8a9e\u500b\u7a31\u547c\uff0c\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u7576\u4e4b\u7121\u6127\u3002\u4e8c\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u671f\u9084\u662f\u5c0f\u5b78\u751f\u7684\u6211\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u5fe0\u5be6\u64c1\u8e89\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u6211\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u555f\u8499\u8001\u5e2b\uff0c\u5e36\u6211\u9032\u5165\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u6bbf\u5802\uff0c\u6559\u66c9\u6211\u4ec0\u9ebc\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\uff0c\u885b\u65af\u7406\u90a3\u4e9b\u5192\u96aa\u6545\u4e8b\u56b4\u683c\u4e0a\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b97\u662f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u5728\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7576\u79d1\u5b78\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u70ba\u63a8\u52d5\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u548c\u79d1\u666e\u4e0d\u9055\u9918\u529b\uff0c\u5beb\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u95dc\u65bc\u5169\u8005\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u4ed6\u7684\u65b0\u66f8\u300c\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u300d\uff0c\u5f9e\u79d1\u5e7b\u79d1\u666e\u51fa\u8d70\u5230\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\uff0c\u6311\u6230\u6211\u5011\u8996\u4e4b\u70ba\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\uff0c\u6279\u5224\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3002\u6211\u53c8\u600e\u80fd\u932f\u904e\u984c\u6750\u9019\u9ebc\u5438\u5f15\u7684\u66f8\u5462\uff0c\u5728\u66f8\u5c40\u9047\u4e0a\u4fbf\u7acb\u99ac\u8cb7\u56de\u5bb6\u7d30\u8b80\u3002 \u98db\u5feb\u5730\u770b\u5b8c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5f8c\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u611f\u89ba\uff0c\u662f\u770b\u4e00\u672c\u66f8\u7b49\u65bc\u770b\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u672c\u66f8\u3002\u300c\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u300d\u4f3c\u662f\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u7684\u8b80\u66f8\u7b46\u8a18\uff0c\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\uff0c\u5916\u570b\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u6279\u5224\u91d1\u878d\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\uff0c\u9023\u540c\u4e00\u4e9b\u51fa\u7248\u5e74\u4efd\u66f4\u65e9\u540c\u985e\u66f8\u85c9\u7684\u7d93\u5178\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u5927\u6168\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u5168\u90e8\u770b\u904e\u4e86\u3002\u7b97\u8d77\u4f86\u6211\u81ea\u5df2\u4e5f\u4e0d\u592a\u5dee\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u904e\u7684\u66f8\u672c\u540d\u55ae\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u770b\u904e\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u516d\u4e03\u672c\u3002\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u5de6\u7ffc\u4efd\u5b50\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u5e74\u5c11\u6642\u8b80\u6d77\u8036\u514b\u548c\u4f5b\u5229\u6c11\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u8a00\u8ad6\u5f88\u4e2d\u80af\u4e0d\u4f3c\u4e00\u822c\u5de6\u7ffc\u4efd\u5b50\u90a3\u9ebc\u504f\u6fc0\uff0c\u60f3\u4ed6\u662f\u5982\u5be6\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u4ed6\u8b80\u904e\u66f8\u672c\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u3002\u53ea\u662f\u4ed6\u66f8\u4e2d\u5c0d\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u6279\u5224\u597d\u50cf\u5168\u6253\u4e86\u7a3b\u8349\u4eba\uff0c\u672a\u80fd\u628a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u53cd\u8f49\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u570d\u7e5e\u8457\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5718\u5718\u8f49\uff0c\u6211\u6709\u9ede\u61f7\u7591\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u5c0d\u5230\u5e95\u5c0d\u771f\u6b63\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u8a8d\u8b58\u3002 \u6211\u96d6\u7136\u53ea\u5728\u5927\u5b78\u6642\u4fee\u8b80\u904e\u7684\u5e7e\u9580\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u548c\u54f2\u5b78\u7684\u8ab2\uff0c\u770b\u4e86\u4e00\u5806\u666e\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u6211\u65e2\u7136\u81ea\u8a8d\u70ba\u53f3\u6d3e\u4eba\uff0c\u5c0d\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u7b46\u4e0b\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u8207\u6211\u8a8d\u8b58\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u6703\u4e0d\u6703\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u53ea\u900f\u904e\u4ed6\u8b80\u90a3\u4e9b\u66f8\u6709\u8272\u773c\u93e1\u53bb\u770b\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5f97\u51fa\u8207\u4e8b\u5be6\u76f8\u5dee\u5f88\u9060\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u3002\u8981\u77e5\u5728\u5de6\u6d3e\u5fc3\u4e2d\uff0c\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u6574\u500b\u5730\u7403\u7684\u6240\u6709\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7b97\u5230\u842c\u60e1\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u982d\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c31\u597d\u50cf\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u611b\u628a\u6240\u6709\u554f\u984c\u63a8\u7d66\u9b54\u9b3c\u6492\u65e6\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u4e0b\u6587\u6211\u5c07\u6703\u5217\u51fa\u66f8\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e00\u7ae0\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u548c\u504f\u898b\uff0c\u56de\u9867\u4ee5\u524d\u4e0a\u5802\u5b78\u5230\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u548c\u5f9e\u7db2\u4e0a\u627e\u4f86\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u8a66\u5617\u63d0\u51fa\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u4ee5\u6539\u6b63\u66f8\u4e2d\u932f\u8aa4\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e00\u7ae0\uff1a\u65b0\u53f3\u56de\u671d \u9019\u7ae0\u5f9e\u7f8e\u570b\u5217\u6839\u7e3d\u7d71\u548c\u82f1\u570b\u8f09\u5353\u723e\u592b\u4eba\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6539\u9769\u8aaa\u8d77\uff0c\u8b1b\u8ff0\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8208\u8d77\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u6240\u8aaa\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u662f\u4e8b\u5be6\u4f46\u4e0d\u662f\u4e8b\u5be6\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u5f15\u7528\u4e0d\u5c11\u504f\u9817\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u8b93\u8b80\u8005\u5148\u5c0d\u53f3\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u6539\u9769\u5148\u7559\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u58de\u5370\u8c61\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u300c\u82f1\u570b\u5927\u6771\u96fb\u5831\u79c1\u6709\u5316\uff0c\u54e1\u5de5\u58eb\u6c23\u5927\u4e0d\u5982\u4ee5\u524d\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u6c92\u6709\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u5927\u6771\u96fb\u5831\u58df\u65b7\u9577\u9014\u96fb\u8a71\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u8981\u4ed8\u51fa\u6602\u8cb4\u7684\u96fb\u8a71\u8cbb\uff0c\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u5f8c\u5f15\u5165\u7af6\u722d\u8b93\u96fb\u8a0a\u8cbb\u7528\u4e0b\u964d\u4eba\u6c11\u53d7\u60e0\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u300c\u65b0\u897f\u862d\u7684\u6c23\u8c61\u5c40\u9032\u884c\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u6c23\u8c61\u670d\u52d9\u7adf\u7136\u6210\u70ba\u4e86\u4e00\u76e4\u751f\u610f\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u6c92\u6709\u544a\u8a22\u4f60\u65b0\u897f\u862d\u6c23\u8c61\u5c40\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u570b\u71df\u4f01\u696d\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u5fc5\u8981\u670d\u52d9\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u514d\u8cbb\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u666e\u901a\u5e02\u6c11\u7528\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u7279\u5225\u670d\u8cbb\uff0c\u624d\u63a1\u53d6\u7528\u8005\u81ea\u4ed8\u7684\u539f\u5247\u6536\u56de\u6210\u672c\u3002 \u66f8\u4e2d\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u300c\u5217\u6839\u65bc\u4e00\u4e5d\u516b\u4e00\u5e74\u5c07\u904e\u842c\u540d\u9032\u884c\u7f77\u5de5\u7684\u822a\u7a7a\u7ba1\u5236\u54e1\u89e3\u50f1\u4e26\u6307\u660e\u70ba\u4e0d\u9304\u7528\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u6c92\u6709\u544a\u8a34\u90a3\u4e9b\u822a\u7a7a\u7ba1\u5236\u54e1\u7f77\u5de5\u722d\u53d6\u4e00\u9031\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e09\u5341\u4e8c\u5c0f\u6642\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u65e9\u65bc\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u5df2\u6709\u6cd5\u4f8b\uff0c\u8a02\u660e\u822a\u7a7a\u7ba1\u5236\u54e1\u548c\u8b66\u5bdf\u6d88\u9632\u54e1\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u5c6c\u65bc\u5fc5\u8981\u670d\u52d9\u4e0d\u80fd\u7f77\u5de5\u5426\u5247\u9055\u6cd5\u3002\u628a\u822a\u7a7a\u7ba1\u5236\u54e1\u89e3\u50f1\u53ea\u662f\u4f9d\u6cd5\u884c\u4e8b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u7f77\u5de5\u904e\u5f8c\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u822a\u7a7a\u7ba1\u5236\u54e1\u4ea6\u80fd\u91cd\u64cd\u6545\u696d\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u300c\u6234\u5353\u723e\u592b\u4eba\u65bc\u4e00\u4e5d\u516b\u56db\u5e74\u5c07\u64c1\u6709\u5341\u591a\u842c\u6703\u7684\u7164\u7926\u5de5\u6703\u5fb9\u5e95\u6253\u57ae\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u66f8\u4e2d\u6c92\u6709\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u7576\u5e74\u63a1\u7164\u5728\u82f1\u570b\u5df2\u662f\u5915\u967d\u5de5\u696d\uff0c\u4e00\u4f86\u4ee5\u7164\u4f5c\u70ba\u80fd\u6e90\u5341\u5206\u4e0d\u74b0\u4fdd\uff0c\u4e8c\u4f86\u82f1\u570b\u7164\u7926\u5b58\u91cf\u5df2\u6f38\u898b\u67af\u7aed\uff0c\u505c\u6b62\u63a1\u7164\u53ea\u662f\u9072\u65e9\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u7f77\u5de5\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6234\u5353\u723e\u592b\u4eba\u6253\u7b97\u95dc\u9589\u4e8c\u5341\u500b\u7164\u7926\uff0c\u8af7\u523a\u7684\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u7f77\u4e86\u4e00\u5e74\u5de5\uff0c\u597d\u4e9b\u7164\u7926\u6b20\u7f3a\u4fdd\u990a\u7dad\u4fee\uff0c\u7f77\u5de5\u7d50\u675f\u6642\u7926\u4e95\u5df2\u8b8a\u5f97\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u4e0d\u80fd\u958b\u63a1\uff0c\u7164\u7926\u5de5\u4eba\u7f77\u5de5\u53cd\u5c0d\u7164\u7926\u95dc\u9580\u53cd\u800c\u52a0\u901f\u4e86\u95dc\u9580\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e00\u7ae0\u6700\u5f8c\u4f5c\u8005\u6559\u8b80\u8005\u5206\u8fa8\u300c\u5de6\u300d\u8207\u300c\u53f3\u300d\u7684\u5c0f\u77e5\u8b58\u66f4\u662f\u932f\u5f97\u96e2\u8b5c\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u8aaa \u53f3\u50be\u7684\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\u300c\u500b\u4eba\u81ea\u7531\u300d\u8207\u300c\u8cac\u4efb\u627f\u64d4\u300d\u8f03\u300c\u793e\u6703\u516c\u7fa9\u300d\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u800c\u300c\u5e02\u5834\u898f\u5f8b\u300d\u5247\u8f03\u300c\u570b\u5bb6\u529f\u80fd\u300d\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5de6\u50be\u5247\u662f\u5c0d\u8a9e\u7a2e\u89c0\u9ede\u7684\u53cd\u52d5\uff0c\u5176\u91cd\u9ede\u662f\u6d88\u6ec5\u58d3\u8feb\u548c\u525d\u524a\uff0c\u4f38\u5f35\u793e\u6703\u516c\u7fa9\u3002\u6709\u95dc\u300c\u5de6\u3001\u53f3\u300d\u7684\u722d\u8ad6\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u5982\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u300c\u793e\u6703\u516c\u7fa9\u300d\u8207\u300c\u500b\u4eba\u81ea\u7531\u300d\u4e4b\u9593\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\u3002 \u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u53f3\u6d3e\u4e5f\u5341\u5206\u91cd\u8996\u300c\u793e\u6703\u516c\u7fa9\u300d\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u5de6\u53f3\u5169\u6d3e\u5c0d\u300c\u793e\u6703\u516c\u7fa9\u300d\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u53f3\u6d3e\u91cd\u8996\u7684\u662f\u300c\u7a0b\u5e8f\u516c\u5e73\u300d\uff0c\u5de6\u6d3e\u91cd\u8996\u7684\u662f\u300c\u7d50\u679c\u5e73\u5747\u300d\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u53f3\u6d3e\u4e5f\u91cd\u8996\u300c\u570b\u5bb6\u529f\u80fd\u300d\uff0c\u7562\u7adf\u53f3\u6d3e\u4e26\u975e\u7121\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u3002\u53ea\u662f\u53f3\u6d3e\u5148\u5929\u6027\u4e0d\u4fe1\u6027\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f35\u5fc5\u9700\u8981\u9650\u5236\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u4fdd\u969c\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\u548c\u81ea\u7531\u3002\u5de6\u6d3e\u5247\u76f8\u5c0d\u5730\u4fe1\u4efb\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u8981\u901a\u904e\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5e72\u9810\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8b77\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\u548c\u81ea\u7531\u3002\u300c\u5de6\u3001\u53f3\u300d\u7684\u722d\u8ad6\uff0c\u662f\u5169\u6975\u50f9\u503c\u89c0\u7684\u53d6\u5411\uff0c\u91cd\u8996\u904e\u7a0b\u9084\u662f\u91cd\u8996\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u4fe1\u4efb\u9084\u662f\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u653f\u5e9c\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\uff1a\u300c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\u5e2d\u6372\u5168\u7403 \u9019\u7ae0\u7c21\u55ae\u4ecb\u7d39\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u5167\u5bb9\u4e0d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u6709\u662f\u6709\u932f\uff0c\u4f46\u7528\u8a5e\u65b9\u9762\u4e0d\u514d\u6709\u65b7\u7ae0\u53d6\u7fa9\u4e4b\u5acc\uff0c\u6587\u4e2d\u66f4\u6232\u8a00\u300c\u5982\u96fb\u5f71\u9435\u7532\u5a01\u9f8d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u7dad\u6301\u6cbb\u5b89\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u70ba\u88ab\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u7684\u696d\u8c61\u300d\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u73fe\u5be6\u4e2d\u61c9\u8a72\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u652f\u6301\u7dad\u6301\u6cbb\u5b89\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u7684\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5728\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u4e2d\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u4fbf\u662f\u5c0d\u66b4\u529b\u624b\u6bb5\u7684\u58df\u65b7\uff0c\u628a\u7dad\u6301\u6cbb\u5b89\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0d\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u6dea\u70ba\u9ed1\u793e\u6703\u5f0f\u7684\u66b4\u529b\u96c6\u570b\u3002 \u66f8\u4e2d\u8aaa\u7279\u9996\u66fe\u852d\u6b0a\u5f15\u7528\u300c\u6ef2\u6ef4\u5f0f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u300d\uff0c\u8aaa\u81f4\u529b\u4fc3\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u628a\u9905\u9020\u5927\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u6703\u53d7\u76ca\uff0c\u4f46\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u300c\u4e0a\u6ef2\u5f0f\u300d\u7684\u8ca1\u5bcc\u8f49\u79fb\uff0c\u4f7f\u8ca1\u5bcc\u7684\u96c6\u4e2d\u8b8a\u5f97\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u53b2\u5bb3\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5728\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u4e2d\uff0c\u7aae\u4eba\u812b\u8ca7\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u9014\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u81ea\u6211\u589e\u503c\u63d0\u5347\u751f\u7522\u529b\uff0c\u5f9e\u4f4e\u6280\u8853\u5de5\u4f5c\u8f49\u578b\u81f3\u9ad8\u6280\u8853\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u8ab0\u4eba\u51fa\u529b\u628a\u9905\u505a\u5927\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5403\u6389\u589e\u5927\u90a3\u90e8\u4efd\u7684\u9905\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u751f\u7522\u529b\u6c92\u6709\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u584a\u9905\u9020\u5f97\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff0c\u5206\u5230\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u5c0f\u584a\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u6539\u8b8a\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\u4f5c\u8005\u6709\u4e9b\u5f88\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u5f04\u932f\u4e86\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u8aaa\u300c\u8ca7\u5bcc\u61f8\u6b8a\u7684\u73fe\u50cf\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u570b\u5167\u7684\u9084\u662f\u570b\u8207\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\uff0c\u537b\u4e5f\u8b8a\u7684\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u56b4\u6703\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u6211\u4e0a\u7db2\u67e5\u770b\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u57281970\u5e74\u767c\u9054\u570b\u5bb6(OECD)\u7684GDP\u4f54\u5168\u7403GDP\u768478.6%\uff0c\u4f462012\u5e74\u5df2\u4e0b\u964d\u81f365.8%\uff0c\u5f88\u660e\u986f\u570b\u8207\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u8ca7\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u6536\u7a84\u4e86\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u300c\u9760\u5927\u91cf\u501f\u8ca8\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6d88\u8cbb\u300d\u4e0d\u77e5\u4f55\u89e3\u7b97\u5230\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u982d\u4e0a\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e3b\u5f35\u653f\u5e9c\u524a\u6e1b\u958b\u652f\u5e73\u885d\u9810\u7b97\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f35\u9760\u501f\u8ca8\u53bb\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u662f\u90a3\u500b\u534a\u5de6\u6d3e\u7684\u51f1\u601d\u65af\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3002 \u66f8\u4e2d\u8aaa\u300c\u5168\u7403\u8d85\u7d1a\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u6700\u5927\u798d\u5bb3\uff0c\u9577\u9060\u4f86\u8aaa\u5fc5\u7136\u662f\u5168\u7403\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u6c61\u67d3\u548c\u751f\u614b\u5e73\u885d\u7684\u7834\u58de\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u707d\u96e3\u6027\u5f8c\u679c\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u7834\u58de\u74b0\u5883\u4e0d\u7368\u662f\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u7576\u5e74\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8607\u806f\u4e5f\u5f04\u51fa\u500b\u6c99\u6f20\u4e4b\u6d77(Aral Sea)\u7684\u751f\u614b\u5927\u707d\u96e3\u3002\u6b78\u6839\u7a76\u4f4e\u8981\u7b97\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u7834\u58de\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u539f\u5147\u662f\u5de5\u696d\u9769\u547d\u548c\u73fe\u4ee3\u5316\u624d\u5c0d\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u5f8c\u9644\u6709\u4ecb\u7d39\u5967\u5730\u5229\u8207\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5b78\u6d3e\u7570\u540c\u7684\u5c0f\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u4eca\u6b21\u4f5c\u8005\u5012\u8aaa\u5f97\u4e2d\u80af\uff0c\u4e0d\u59a8\u4e00\u8b80\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e09\u7ae0\uff1a\u5bcc\u9952\u4e2d\u7684\u8ca7\u56f0 \u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u7ae0\u8209\u51fa\u4e00\u5927\u4e32\u73fe\u4eca\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u7167\u820a\u628a\u6240\u6709\u554f\u984c\u7b97\u5230\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u982d\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u63a8\u8ad6\u5247\u5b8c\u5168\u4e45\u5949\uff0c\u5f77\u5f7f\u53ea\u662f\u96a8\u624b\u627e\u96bb\u4ee3\u7f6a\u7f94\u7f8a\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u8aaa\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u570b\u5bb6\u5982\u4f55\u8ca7\u7aae\u5982\u4f55\u4e0d\u516c\u7fa9\uff0c\u300c\u5341\u56db\u5104\u4eba\u6bcf\u5929\u4e0d\u8db31.25\u7f8e\u5143\u5ea6\u65e5\u300d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7ffb\u770b\u7dad\u57fa\u767e\u79d1GDP(PPP)\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u5c0d\u6bd41913\u5e74\u548c2003\u5e74\u7684\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u6574\u9ad4\u7684GPD\u5347\u4e8615\u500d\uff0c\u897f\u6b50\u7684\u5347\u4e868.7\u500d\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5347\u4e8616.3\u500d\uff0c\u4f60\u4f30\u975e\u6d32\u7684GDP\u5347\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u500d\uff0c\u662f\u5347\u4e8616.7\u500d\uff0c\u6bd4\u7f8e\u570b\u9084\u8981\u591a\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u540c\u6642\u671f\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u9577\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u6b50\u7f8e\u5206\u5225\u53ea\u5347\u4e861.8\u500d\u548c4.1\u500d\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6d32\u5247\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a07.3\u500d\u3002\u53ef\u898b\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u8ca7\u7aae\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u6e90\u56e0\u662f\u672a\u80fd\u63a7\u5236\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u584a\u9905\u7684\u589e\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\u8207\u897f\u65b9\u76f8\u82e5\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u5206\u9905\u7684\u4eba\u537b\u591a\u51fa\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u76f8\u5c0d\u4e0b\u8b8a\u5f97\u8f03\u70ba\u8ca7\u7aae\u3002 \u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u9054\u570b\u5bb6\u4e4b\u5167\u7684\u8ca7\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u300c\u7f8e\u570b\u6700\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e94\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u4eba\u53ea\u662f\u589e\u9577\u4e866%\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u6210\u679c\u5206\u914d\u6975\u5ea6\u4e0d\u5747\u300d\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u4f5c\u8005\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u60f3\u904e\uff0c\u90a3\u4e94\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u4eba\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8ca2\u737b\u5462\uff1f\u82e5\u679c\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u548c\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4f9d\u7136\u505a\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u800c\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u751f\u7522\u529b\u6c92\u6709\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u4e0d\u8a08\u56e0\u901a\u6f32\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u85aa\u91d1\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4ed6\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u5be6\u8cea\u5de5\u8cc7\u6703\u589e\u52a0\u5462\uff1f\u66f4\u4e0d\u8981\u8aaa\u5728\u90a3\u4e94\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u4eba\u7576\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u597d\u4e9b\u4eba\u6839\u672c\u6c92\u6709\u5de5\u4f5c\u9818\u53d6\u798f\u5229\u904e\u6d3b\uff0c\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5168\u7121\u8ca2\u737b\uff0c\u7adf\u7136\u9084\u597d\u610f\u601d\u539a\u8457\u9762\u76ae\u53bb\u5206\u4eab\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7684\u6210\u679c\u3002 \u6700\u5f8c\u4f5c\u8005\u53cd\u554f\u300c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u70ba\u6211\u5011\u5e36\u4f86\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7684\u7f8e\u9e97\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u300d\uff0c\u300c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u653f\u5e9c\u6551\u5e02\u4e0d\u6551\u4eba\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u7533\u8acb\u7834\u7522\u4fdd\u8b77\uff0c\u9ad8\u5c64\u4eba\u54e1\u9084\u53ef\u7372\u5de8\u984d\u85aa\u91d1\u548c\u82b1\u7d05\u300d\uff0c\u300c\u6211\u5011\u70ba\u4f55\u6703\u8b93\u793e\u6703\u767c\u5c55\u5230\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u500b\u5730\u6b65\u300d\u3002\u4e0a\u4e00\u7ae0\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df2\u624d\u8aaa\u904e\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5c0d\u53cd\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u6551\u5e02\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u5f15\u81f4\u9053\u5fb7\u98a8\u96aa(moral hazard)\uff0c\u9019\u7b46\u7cca\u5857\u8cec\u600e\u6a23\u4e5f\u4e0d\u61c9\u7b97\u5230\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u982d\u4e0a\u4f86\u5427\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u8981\u56de\u7b54\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u793e\u6703\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6703\u767c\u5c55\u9019\u4e00\u500b\u5730\u6b65\uff0c\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u5de6\u6d3e\u907a\u7559\u7684\u9918\u6bd2\u9084\u672a\u5fb9\u5e95\u6e05\u9664\u3002\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u6b21\u6309\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u800c\u6b21\u6309\u7684\u6e90\u982d\u6b63\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9810\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u8981\u5169\u623f\u9054\u6210\u4eba\u4eba\u6709\u5c4b\u4f4f\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4efb\u52d9\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u8ca8\u6b3e\u4eba\u662f\u5426\u8db3\u5920\u9084\u50b5\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u786c\u751f\u751f\u628a\u9055\u7d04\u98a8\u96aa\u6ce8\u5165\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u6f14\u8b8a\u6210\u50b3\u70b8\u5f48\u904a\u6232\u3002 \u7ae0\u672a\u4f5c\u8005\u4ecb\u7d39\u300c\u99ac\u592a\u6548\u61c9\u300d\u548c\u300c\u8ca7\u7aae\u9677\u9631\u300d\uff0c\u60f3\u8aaa\u670d\u8b80\u8005\u5e02\u5834\u5fc5\u7136\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u300c\u5bcc\u8005\u8d8a\u5bcc\uff0c\u8ca7\u8005\u8d8a\u8ca7\u300d\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5927\u8a71\u6015\u8a08\u6578\uff0c\u6211\u4f8b\u8209\u5169\u500b\u6b77\u53f2\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u9577\u9060\u800c\u8a00\u300c\u99ac\u592a\u6548\u61c9\u300d\u4e26\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u9053\u74ca\u65af\u5de5\u696d\u6307\u6578\u4e09\u5341\u96bb\u6210\u5206\u80a1\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u6700\u6709\u9322\u7684\u5927\u4f01\u696d\uff0c1970\u5e74\u5230\u73fe\u572840\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e94\u9593\u516c\u53f8\u4ecd\u7136\u7559\u5728\u6307\u6578\u5167\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u516c\u53f8\u7121\u5f97\u7559\u5e95\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u66f4\u52a0\u7834\u7522\u6536\u5834\u3002\u963f\u6839\u5ead\u65bc1900\u5e74\u6642\uff0c\u66fe\u7d93\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5341\u5f37\uff0c\u4eba\u5747GPD\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u63a5\u8fd1\u7f8e\u570b\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u963f\u6839\u5ead\u5247\u6dea\u70ba\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u570b\u5bb6\u3002\u53cd\u89c0\u4e9e\u6d32\u5404\u570b\u5982\u65e5\u672c\uff0c\u5357\u97d3\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7b49\uff0c\u5f9e\u4e00\u7aae\u4e8c\u767d\u5230\u6649\u9032\u767c\u9054\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u884c\u5217\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u53ef\u898b\u6709\u9322\u53ef\u4ee5\u56e0\u70ba\u5931\u8aa4\u800c\u8b8a\u6210\u7121\u9322\uff0c\u7121\u9322\u7684\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6191\u9032\u6b65\u5f8c\u4f86\u8ffd\u4e0a\uff0c\u9019\u4fbf\u662f\u5275\u9020\u6027\u6bc0\u6ec5(creative destruction)\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002 \u7b2c\u56db\u7ae0\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u5316\u8836\u98df\u793e\u6703\u50f9\u503c \u9019\u4e00\u7ae0\u8f49\u800c\u6279\u8a55\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u4f5c\u8005\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5c0d\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e2d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u8aa4\u89e3\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u8aaa \u5982\u679c\u300c\u4e00\u500b\u9858\u8cb7\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u9858\u8ce3\u300d\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u5c31\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u793e\u6703\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u90a3\u7e3b\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7d55\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u793e\u6703\u90fd\u4e0d\u8a31\u8ce3\u8840\uff0c\u8ce3\u5668\u5b98\uff0c\u8ce3\u6deb\uff0c\u8ce3\u6bd2\u54c1\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5b78\u4f4d\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5b98\u8077\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5b50\u5973\uff0c\u300c\u8ce3\u8eab\u846c\u7236\u300d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u8a31\u8ce3\u300c\u9ec3\u725b\u98db\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u5f7c\u6b64\u4f60\u60c5\u6211\u9858\u7684\u9ad8\u5229\u8ca8\uff0c\u5305\u652c\u8a34\u8a1f\uff0c\u91d1\u5b57\u5854\u5f0f\u63a8\u92b7\u7b49\uff0c\u5728\u7d55\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u570b\u5bb6\u90fd\u88ab\u5217\u70ba\u975e\u6cd5\uff1f\u5f88\u660e\u986f\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u4ea4\u6613\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u51cc\u99d5\u65bc\u793e\u6703\u50f9\u503c\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u6289\u64c7\u4e4b\u4e0a \u9996\u5148\u8981\u6f84\u6e05\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u6703\u8a8d\u540c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6240\u8b02\u8cb7\u8ce3\u662f\u81ea\u7531\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u4f86\u81ea\u5eb7\u5fb7\u7684\u9053\u5fb7\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u8981\u5c0a\u91cd\u634d\u885b\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u5c0a\u56b4\u3002\u8ce3\u8840\uff0c\u8ce3\u5668\u8840\uff0c\u8ce3\u5b50\u5973\uff0c\u8ce3\u8eab\u846c\u7236\u7b49\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u9055\u53cd\u4eba\u6b0a\u628a\u4eba\u985e\u8cb6\u70ba\u8ca8\u7269\uff0c\u8207\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u885d\u7a81\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e2d\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u5fc5\u9700\u4ee5\u5408\u7d04\u7cbe\u795e\u548c\u8aa0\u4fe1\u70ba\u5927\u524d\u984c\uff0c\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u529f\u7528\uff0c\u4fbf\u662f\u76e3\u7763\u4eba\u6c11\u5c65\u884c\u5408\u7d04\u7684\u7fa9\u52d9\u3002\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5b78\u4f4d\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5b98\u8077\uff0c\u7092\u9ec3\u725b\u98db\uff0c\u9ad8\u5229\u8ca8\uff0c\u5305\u652c\u8a34\u8a1f\uff0c\u91d1\u5b57\u5854\u5f0f\u63a8\u92b7\u7b49\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u53cd\u5c0d\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u884c\u70ba\u542b\u6709\u6b3a\u9a19\u6216\u9055\u7d04\u6210\u4efd\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u5b97\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6bd2\u54c1\u4e0d\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u5176\u4ed6\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u793e\u6703\u554f\u984c\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u672c\u8eab\u4e26\u4e0d\u652f\u6301\u6216\u53cd\u5c0d\u8ce3\u6bd2\u54c1\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u7981\u4e0d\u7981\u6bd2\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u793e\u6703\u6210\u672c\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u8ce3\u6deb\u561b\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u5b8c\u5168\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u897f\u65b9\u81ea\u7531\u793e\u6703\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u9999\u6e2f\uff0c\u8ce3\u6deb\u662f\u5408\u6cd5\u7684\uff0c\u72af\u6cd5\u7684\u53ea\u662f\u626f\u76ae\u689d\u3002 \u63a5\u8457\u9019\u7ae0\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6279\u8a55\u5e02\u5834\u5316\uff0c\u8aaa\u300c\u5e02\u5834\u5316\u672c\u8eab\u66f4\u662f\u56b4\u91cd\u5730\u8836\u98df\u8457\u4eba\u969b\u9593\u7684\u502b\u7406\u95dc\u4fc2\u4ee5\u53ca\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u793e\u7fa4\u50f9\u503c\u300d\uff0c\u4e26\u8209\u51fa\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u8a17\u5152\u6240\u5c0d\u9072\u5230\u63a5\u5b50\u5973\u7684\u5bb6\u9577\u5f15\u5165\u7f70\u6b3e\u4f5c\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u9019\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\u5728Predictably Irrational\u4e00\u66f8\u4e2d\u6211\u4e5f\u6709\u770b\u904e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u628a\u9019\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u5316\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u672a\u514d\u904e\u4efd\u806f\u60f3\u3002\u9019\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u6307\u51fa\u4eba\u8166\u5206\u70ba\u611f\u6027\u548c\u7406\u6027\u5169\u500b\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u601d\u8003\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u5f97\u51fa\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u985e\u975e\u7406\u6027\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\uff0c\u65e9\u5df2\u6649\u8eab\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6Maurice Allais\u66f4\u6191\u6b64\u7372\u5f97\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u734e\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u719f\u6089\u884c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u5169\u8005\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f8\u5bb9\u5171\u8655\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u5f71\u97ff\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u67b6\u69cb\u3002 \u6700\u5f8c\u4f5c\u8005\u518d\u4e00\u6b21\u6253\u7a3b\u8349\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u6279\u8a55\u6d88\u8cbb\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u8aaa\u300c\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5341\u8db3\u5947\u602a\u7684\u672c\u672b\u5012\u7f6e\u300d\uff0c\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u4e5f\u6703\u8a8d\u540c\u9019\u756a\u8aaa\u8a71\u3002\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u4fbf\u662f\u7d2f\u7a4d\u8cc7\u672c\u53bb\u589e\u52a0\u751f\u7522\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u503c\u50f9\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u4e3b\u7fa9\u537b\u53cd\u884c\u5176\u9053\u628a\u9322\u82b1\u6389\uff0c\u4e0d\u77e5\u4f55\u89e3\u4f5c\u8005\u628a\u6d88\u8cbb\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7b97\u5230\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u982d\u4e0a\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u4ed6\u53c8\u8aaa\uff1a \u6309\u7167\u300c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\u7684\u4e3b\u5c0e\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5927\u53ef\u5c07\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u516c\u5712\u3001\u5716\u66f8\u9928\u3001\u535a\u7269\u9928\u3001\u90f5\u653f\u5c40\u3001\u6c34\u52d9\u8655\u3001\u6d88\u9632\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u6551\u50b7\u8eca\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u6c23\u50cf\u670d\u52d9\u7b49\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u3002\u6240\u6709\u570b\u5bb6\u5176\u81f3\u4e0d\u518d\u9700\u8981\u8b66\u5bdf\u548c\u8ecd\u968a\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7dad\u6301\u6cbb\u5b89\u53ef\u7531\u4fdd\u5b89\u516c\u53f8\u8ca0\u8cac\u3001\u570b\u9632\u5247\u53ef\u7531\u50f1\u50ad\u5175\u8ca0\u8cac\u3002\u5f9e\u7d93\u6fdf\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u9019\u4e9b\u8f49\u8b8a\u80af\u5b9a\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6548\u76ca\u300d\u3002 \u54a6~ \u9019\u7ae0\u958b\u9996\u4e0d\u624d\u525b\u525b\u8aaa\u904e\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u670d\u52d9\u662f\u516c\u7528\u54c1(public goods)\uff0c\u7531\u653f\u5e9c\u4f86\u505a\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7387\u55ce\uff1f\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u53ef\u4e5f\u767e\u4efd\u767e\u8a8d\u540c\u9019\u9ede\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8c48\u4e0d\u662f\u81ea\u6253\u5634\u5df4\uff1f\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u63d0\u51fa\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u7684\u6700\u5927\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u662f\u5982\u679c\u6709\u4e9b\u670d\u52d9\u5e02\u5834\u7af6\u722d\u6bd4\u653f\u5e9c\u5305\u8fa6\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u4fbf\u61c9\u8a72\u8b93\u5e02\u5834\u4f86\u505a\uff0c\u4f46\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5f9e\u4f86\u6c92\u6709\u8aaa\u904e\u6240\u6709\u653f\u5e9c\u670d\u52d9\u4e5f\u8981\u79c1\u71df\u5316\u554a\u3002\u518d\u8aaa\u591a\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u7121\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3002 \u9019\u7ae0\u5f8c\u9762\u7684\u5c0f\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u7528\u6700\u5f8c\u901a\u789f\u904a\u6232(Utlimatum Game)\uff0c\u8aaa\u7406\u6027\u7684\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u4eba\u300d\u61c9\u8a72\u8b93\u4eba\u5bb6\u62ff\u4e5d\u5341\u4e5d\u5143\u63a5\u53d7\u4e00\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u62cd\u5169\u6563\u4ee4\u5927\u5bb6\u4e5f\u6c92\u9322\u62ff\uff0c\u53bb\u8b49\u660e\u4eba\u985e\u6709\u516c\u5e73\u4e4b\u5fc3\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4f5c\u8005\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u8b80\u904e\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6(Game Theory)\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u7121\u4ec7\u5831\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u904e\u904a\u6232single shot game\uff0c\u4f46\u73fe\u5be6\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u4e00\u6b21\u904e\u904a\u6232\u4e26\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u904a\u6232\u90fd\u662f\u91cd\u8986\u904a\u6232(repeated game)\u3002\u5728\u91cd\u8986\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u62cd\u5169\u6563\u662f\u8feb\u5c0d\u624b\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c40\u5c31\u7bc4\u7684\u6700\u597d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4eba\u8166\u5c31\u6703\u4f5c\u51fa\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002\u518d\u8005\u5c31\u7b97\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u904e\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\uff0c\u8b93\u5c0d\u624b\u77e5\u9053\u4f60\u6709\u4e00\u62cd\u5169\u6563\u7684\u6c7a\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u9632\u6b62\u4ed6\u4e82\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u597d\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u8aaa\u7406\u6027\u7d93\u6fdf\u4eba\u8ffd\u6c42\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5316\u592a\u904e\u77ed\u8996\u4e86\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u7406\u6027\u7d93\u6fdf\u4eba\u8ffd\u6c42\u7684\u662f\u9577\u9060\u6548\u76ca\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5316\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e94\u7ae0\uff1a\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6307\u6a19 \u4f5c\u8005\u8aaa\u8981\u53cd\u8f49\u4e3b\u6d41\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\uff0c\u9019\u7ae0\u6307\u51faGDP(Gross Domestic Product)\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u4e3b\u6d41\u7684\u5e38\u8b58\uff0c\u4e2d\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u8ab2\u6216\u8a31\u6c92\u6709\u6559\uff0c\u5927\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u8ab2\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u8b1b\u53caGDP\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u3002\u9019\u7ae0\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u5168\u7121\u554f\u984c\u5341\u5206\u6b63\u8def\uff0cGDP\u7684\u4e14\u800c\u78ba\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u72f9\u9698\u548c\u504f\u9817\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u300d\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u91cf\u5ea6\u4e00\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e00\u5e74\u5167\u7684\u82b1\u8cbb\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u6c92\u6709\u53cd\u6620\u5176\u4ed6\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5982\u74b0\u5883\u8cc7\u6e90\u6d88\u8017\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u570b\u50b5\u589e\u52a0\u7b49\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5927\u6168\u9664\u4e86\u4e2d\u570b\u6703\u8a02\u4e0b\u81ea\u6b3a\u6b3a\u7684GDP\u589e\u9577\u76ee\u6a19\u5916\uff0c\u5916\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u65e9\u5df2\u8a08\u7b97\u5176\u4ed6\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u53bb\u5f4c\u4fddGDP\u7684\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u5982GNH(Gross National Happiness)\u6216HPI(Happy Planet Index)\u7b49\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d6\u4ee3GDP\u4f5c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u90a3\u4e9b\u91cf\u5ea6\u5feb\u6a02\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u4e3b\u89c0\u6027\u592a\u5f37\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u5ba2\u89c0\u6a19\u6e96\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\u7684\u3002 \u66f8\u4e2d\u4ea6\u63d0\u53ca\u7528\u904e\u6642\u7684GNP(Gross National Product)\u53d6\u4ee3GDP\uff0c\u6211\u5f88\u5947\u602a\u4f5c\u8005\u600e\u9ebc\u4e0d\u63d0\u66f4\u65b0\u66f4\u6e96\u78ba\u7684GNI(Gross National Income)\u548cGPI(Genuine Progress … Continue reading \u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78 – \u674e\u9006\u71b5<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7320,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"lc_iscn_info":[],"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8],"tags":[870,935],"class_list":["post-7310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-_books","tag-870","tag-935"],"yoast_head":"\n\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78 - \u674e\u9006\u71b5 - \u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u9999\u6e2f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e4b\u7236\u8a9e\u500b\u7a31\u547c\uff0c\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u7576\u4e4b\u7121\u6127\u3002\u4e8c\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u671f\u9084\u662f\u5c0f\u5b78\u751f\u7684\u6211\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u5fe0\u5be6\u64c1\u8e89\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u6211\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u555f\u8499\u8001\u5e2b\uff0c\u5e36\u6211\u9032\u5165\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u6bbf\u5802\uff0c\u6559\u66c9\u6211\u4ec0\u9ebc\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\uff0c\u885b\u65af\u7406\u90a3\u4e9b\u5192\u96aa\u6545\u4e8b\u56b4\u683c\u4e0a\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b97\u662f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u5728\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7576\u79d1\u5b78\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u70ba\u63a8\u52d5\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u548c\u79d1\u666e\u4e0d\u9055\u9918\u529b\uff0c\u5beb\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u95dc\u65bc\u5169\u8005\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u4ed6\u7684\u65b0\u66f8\u300c\u53cd\u8f49\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78-\u674e\u9006\u71b5\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78 - \u674e\u9006\u71b5 - \u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u9999\u6e2f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e4b\u7236\u8a9e\u500b\u7a31\u547c\uff0c\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u7576\u4e4b\u7121\u6127\u3002\u4e8c\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u671f\u9084\u662f\u5c0f\u5b78\u751f\u7684\u6211\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u5fe0\u5be6\u64c1\u8e89\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u6211\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u555f\u8499\u8001\u5e2b\uff0c\u5e36\u6211\u9032\u5165\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u6bbf\u5802\uff0c\u6559\u66c9\u6211\u4ec0\u9ebc\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\uff0c\u885b\u65af\u7406\u90a3\u4e9b\u5192\u96aa\u6545\u4e8b\u56b4\u683c\u4e0a\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b97\u662f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u5728\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7576\u79d1\u5b78\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u70ba\u63a8\u52d5\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u548c\u79d1\u666e\u4e0d\u9055\u9918\u529b\uff0c\u5beb\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u95dc\u65bc\u5169\u8005\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u4ed6\u7684\u65b0\u66f8\u300c\u53cd\u8f49\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78-\u674e\u9006\u71b5\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"\u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/horace.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/horace.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-05-03T10:21:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2015-10-28T23:23:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/l_p0024271795.jpg?fit=536%2C720&ssl=1\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"536\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"hevangel\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@horaceorg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@horaceorg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"hevangel\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2013\\\/05\\\/03\\\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2013\\\/05\\\/03\\\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"hevangel\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c\"},\"headline\":\"\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78 – \u674e\u9006\u71b5\",\"datePublished\":\"2013-05-03T10:21:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2015-10-28T23:23:07+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2013\\\/05\\\/03\\\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":180,\"commentCount\":5,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2013\\\/05\\\/03\\\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2013\\\/03\\\/l_p0024271795.jpg?fit=536%2C720&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"\u7d93\u6fdf\",\"\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\"],\"articleSection\":[\"\u66f8\u8a55\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2013\\\/05\\\/03\\\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2013\\\/05\\\/03\\\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2013\\\/05\\\/03\\\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\\\/\",\"name\":\"\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78 - \u674e\u9006\u71b5 - \u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2013\\\/05\\\/03\\\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2013\\\/05\\\/03\\\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2013\\\/03\\\/l_p0024271795.jpg?fit=536%2C720&ssl=1\",\"datePublished\":\"2013-05-03T10:21:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2015-10-28T23:23:07+00:00\",\"description\":\"\u9999\u6e2f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e4b\u7236\u8a9e\u500b\u7a31\u547c\uff0c\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u7576\u4e4b\u7121\u6127\u3002\u4e8c\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u671f\u9084\u662f\u5c0f\u5b78\u751f\u7684\u6211\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u5fe0\u5be6\u64c1\u8e89\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u6211\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u555f\u8499\u8001\u5e2b\uff0c\u5e36\u6211\u9032\u5165\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u6bbf\u5802\uff0c\u6559\u66c9\u6211\u4ec0\u9ebc\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\uff0c\u885b\u65af\u7406\u90a3\u4e9b\u5192\u96aa\u6545\u4e8b\u56b4\u683c\u4e0a\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b97\u662f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u5728\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7576\u79d1\u5b78\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u70ba\u63a8\u52d5\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u548c\u79d1\u666e\u4e0d\u9055\u9918\u529b\uff0c\u5beb\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u95dc\u65bc\u5169\u8005\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u4ed6\u7684\u65b0\u66f8\u300c\u53cd\u8f49\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2013\\\/05\\\/03\\\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2013\\\/05\\\/03\\\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2013\\\/05\\\/03\\\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2013\\\/03\\\/l_p0024271795.jpg?fit=536%2C720&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2013\\\/03\\\/l_p0024271795.jpg?fit=536%2C720&ssl=1\",\"width\":536,\"height\":720},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/2013\\\/05\\\/03\\\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78 – \u674e\u9006\u71b5\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/\",\"name\":\"\u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp\",\"description\":\"\u860b\u679c\u65e5\u5831\u4f5c\u8005 - \u9673\u99ac\uff1a\u66f8\u8a55\uff0c\u5f71\u8a55\uff0c\u52d5\u6f2b\uff0c\u65c5\u884c\uff0c\u54f2\u5b78\u7b46\u8a18\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\"},{\"@type\":[\"Person\",\"Organization\"],\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c\",\"name\":\"hevangel\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1\",\"width\":1313,\"height\":1259,\"caption\":\"hevangel\"},\"logo\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/horace.org\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.horace.org\\\/blog\\\/author\\\/hevangel-2\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78 - \u674e\u9006\u71b5 - \u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp","description":"\u9999\u6e2f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e4b\u7236\u8a9e\u500b\u7a31\u547c\uff0c\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u7576\u4e4b\u7121\u6127\u3002\u4e8c\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u671f\u9084\u662f\u5c0f\u5b78\u751f\u7684\u6211\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u5fe0\u5be6\u64c1\u8e89\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u6211\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u555f\u8499\u8001\u5e2b\uff0c\u5e36\u6211\u9032\u5165\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u6bbf\u5802\uff0c\u6559\u66c9\u6211\u4ec0\u9ebc\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\uff0c\u885b\u65af\u7406\u90a3\u4e9b\u5192\u96aa\u6545\u4e8b\u56b4\u683c\u4e0a\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b97\u662f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u5728\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7576\u79d1\u5b78\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u70ba\u63a8\u52d5\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u548c\u79d1\u666e\u4e0d\u9055\u9918\u529b\uff0c\u5beb\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u95dc\u65bc\u5169\u8005\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u4ed6\u7684\u65b0\u66f8\u300c\u53cd\u8f49","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78-\u674e\u9006\u71b5\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78 - \u674e\u9006\u71b5 - \u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp","og_description":"\u9999\u6e2f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e4b\u7236\u8a9e\u500b\u7a31\u547c\uff0c\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u7576\u4e4b\u7121\u6127\u3002\u4e8c\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u671f\u9084\u662f\u5c0f\u5b78\u751f\u7684\u6211\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u5fe0\u5be6\u64c1\u8e89\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u6211\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u555f\u8499\u8001\u5e2b\uff0c\u5e36\u6211\u9032\u5165\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u6bbf\u5802\uff0c\u6559\u66c9\u6211\u4ec0\u9ebc\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\uff0c\u885b\u65af\u7406\u90a3\u4e9b\u5192\u96aa\u6545\u4e8b\u56b4\u683c\u4e0a\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b97\u662f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u5728\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7576\u79d1\u5b78\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u70ba\u63a8\u52d5\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u548c\u79d1\u666e\u4e0d\u9055\u9918\u529b\uff0c\u5beb\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u95dc\u65bc\u5169\u8005\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u4ed6\u7684\u65b0\u66f8\u300c\u53cd\u8f49","og_url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78-\u674e\u9006\u71b5\/","og_site_name":"\u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/horace.org","article_author":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/horace.org","article_published_time":"2013-05-03T10:21:48+00:00","article_modified_time":"2015-10-28T23:23:07+00:00","og_image":[{"width":536,"height":720,"url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/l_p0024271795.jpg?fit=536%2C720&ssl=1","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"hevangel","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@horaceorg","twitter_site":"@horaceorg","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"hevangel","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\/"},"author":{"name":"hevangel","@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c"},"headline":"\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78 – \u674e\u9006\u71b5","datePublished":"2013-05-03T10:21:48+00:00","dateModified":"2015-10-28T23:23:07+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\/"},"wordCount":180,"commentCount":5,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/l_p0024271795.jpg?fit=536%2C720&ssl=1","keywords":["\u7d93\u6fdf","\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9"],"articleSection":["\u66f8\u8a55"],"inLanguage":"en-CA","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\/","url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\/","name":"\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78 - \u674e\u9006\u71b5 - \u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/l_p0024271795.jpg?fit=536%2C720&ssl=1","datePublished":"2013-05-03T10:21:48+00:00","dateModified":"2015-10-28T23:23:07+00:00","description":"\u9999\u6e2f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e4b\u7236\u8a9e\u500b\u7a31\u547c\uff0c\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u7576\u4e4b\u7121\u6127\u3002\u4e8c\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u671f\u9084\u662f\u5c0f\u5b78\u751f\u7684\u6211\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u5fe0\u5be6\u64c1\u8e89\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u6211\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u555f\u8499\u8001\u5e2b\uff0c\u5e36\u6211\u9032\u5165\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u6bbf\u5802\uff0c\u6559\u66c9\u6211\u4ec0\u9ebc\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\uff0c\u885b\u65af\u7406\u90a3\u4e9b\u5192\u96aa\u6545\u4e8b\u56b4\u683c\u4e0a\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b97\u662f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u5728\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7576\u79d1\u5b78\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u70ba\u63a8\u52d5\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u548c\u79d1\u666e\u4e0d\u9055\u9918\u529b\uff0c\u5beb\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u95dc\u65bc\u5169\u8005\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u4ed6\u7684\u65b0\u66f8\u300c\u53cd\u8f49","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-CA","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-CA","@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/l_p0024271795.jpg?fit=536%2C720&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/l_p0024271795.jpg?fit=536%2C720&ssl=1","width":536,"height":720},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/03\/%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8-%e6%9d%8e%e9%80%86%e7%86%b5\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"\u53cd\u8f49\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78 – \u674e\u9006\u71b5"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/","name":"\u54f2\u5b50\u6232 Philosophist\u2019s Camp","description":"\u860b\u679c\u65e5\u5831\u4f5c\u8005 - \u9673\u99ac\uff1a\u66f8\u8a55\uff0c\u5f71\u8a55\uff0c\u52d5\u6f2b\uff0c\u65c5\u884c\uff0c\u54f2\u5b78\u7b46\u8a18","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-CA"},{"@type":["Person","Organization"],"@id":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/c8d9e8e7a71d343b4b2c4ef4365cdb4c","name":"hevangel","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-CA","@id":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1","width":1313,"height":1259,"caption":"hevangel"},"logo":{"@id":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/spocky.jpg?fit=1313%2C1259&ssl=1"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/www.horace.org","https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/horace.org"],"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/author\/hevangel-2\/"}]}},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/l_p0024271795.jpg?fit=536%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pwn21-1TU","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":12076,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/05\/19\/%e7%a7%91%e5%b9%bb%e6%96%87%e5%ad%b8%e8%a7%a3%e6%a7%8b-%e9%bb%83%e6%b5%b7\/","url_meta":{"origin":7310,"position":0},"title":"\u79d1\u5e7b\u6587\u5b78\u89e3\u69cb – \u9ec3\u6d77","author":"hevangel","date":"May 19, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u6211\u81ea\u5e7c\u71b1\u611b\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\uff0c\u7576\u5e74\u8857\u53e3\u7684\u516c\u5171\u5716\u66f8\u9928\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u90fd\u501f\u95b1\u4e86\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u885b\u65af\u7406\u548c\u7ffb\u8b6f\u4f5c\u54c1\uff0c\u4fbf\u5230\u4ee5\u5f35\u7cfb\u570b\u70ba\u9996\u7684\u53f0\u7063\u79d1\u5e7b\u4f5c\u5bb6\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u6211\u5341\u5206\u559c\u6b61\u7684\u4f5c\u5bb6\u662f\u9ec3\u6d77\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u300a\u9280\u6cb3\u8ff7\u822a\u8a18\u300b\u6211\u66f4\u53cd\u8986\u770b\u4e86\u6578\u904d\u3002\u67d0\u5929\u6211\u5f9e\u7db2\u7d61\u4e0a\u4e0d\u8a18\u5f97\u90a3\u5152\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u9ec3\u6d77\u51fa\u7248\u4e00\u672c\u8ad6\u8ff0\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u65b0\u66f8\u300a\u79d1\u5e7b\u6587\u5b78\u89e3\u69cb\u300b\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u53ea\u662f\u4ed6\u65b0\u5beb\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\uff0c\u6211\u672a\u5fc5\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u770b\uff0c\u7562\u7adf\u6211\u90a3\u4efd\u8a08\u5283\u8981\u770b\u7684\u661f\u96f2\u734e\u66f8\u55ae\u5df2\u7d93\u975e\u5e38\u9577\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5c08\u984c\u63a2\u8a0e\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u66f8\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u662f\u82f1\u6587\u66f8\u4e5f\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u51b7\u9580\uff0c\u4e2d\u6587\u5c31\u6211\u53ea\u8a18\u5f97\u5f88\u591a\u5e74\u524d\u674e\u9006\u71b5\u5beb\u7684\u90a3\u672c\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u6211\u60f3\u4e5f\u4e0d\u60f3\u4fbf\u4e0a\u7db2\u90f5\u8a02\u5bc4\u904e\u4f86\u3002 \u9019\u672c\u66f8\u53ef\u8b02\u4e00\u672c\u95dc\u65bc\u79d1\u5e7b\u7684\u6563\u6587\u96c6\uff0c\u5167\u5bb9\u4e0d\u55ae\u6b62\u8b1b\u8ff0\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\uff0c\u63a2\u8a0e\u4e0d\u540c\u985e\u578b\u79d1\u5e7b\u4f5c\u54c1\u7684\u7570\u540c\uff0c\u8b1b\u89e3\u8edf\u79d1\u5e7b\u786c\u79d1\u5e7b\u5947\u5e7b\u7684\u5206\u985e\uff0c\u79d1\u5b78\u5728\u79d1\u5e7b\u4e2d\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u4ee5\u79d1\u5e7b\u984c\u6750\u624d\u5206\u985e\u63a8\u4ecb\u7d93\u5178\u540d\u8457\uff0c\u8b1b\u89e3\u4e0d\u540c\u6642\u4ee3\u79d1\u5e7b\u7684\u5beb\u4f5c\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u5206\u6790\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u5beb\u4f5c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u8aaa\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u6cd5\u5247\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u5916\u570b\u79d1\u5e7b\u4f5c\u5bb6\u6211\u6bd4\u8f03\u719f\u6089\uff0c\u800c\u66f8\u4e2d\u56de\u9867\u4e2d\u6e2f\u53f0\u4e09\u5730\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u4ecb\u7d39\u4ee5\u6191\u300a\u4e09\u9ad4\u300b\u69ae\u7372\u661f\u96f2\u734e\u5289\u6148\u6b23\u70ba\u9996\u7684\u8fd1\u4ee3\u5927\u9678\u79d1\u5e7b\u4f5c\u5bb6\uff0c\u6b63\u597d\u5f4c\u88dc\u6211\u6240\u77e5\u7684\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u5927\u9678\u8fd1\u5e74\u79d1\u5e7b\u71b1\u6f6e\u7206\u767c\uff0c\u885d\u51fa\u570b\u969b\u63da\u5a01\u6d77\u5916\uff0c\u53cd\u89c0\u6e2f\u53f0\u79d1\u5e7b\u767c\u5c55\u5247\u662f\u4e00\u6f6d\u6b7b\u6c34\uff0c\u79d1\u5e7b\u88ab\u6b78\u985e\u70ba\u7ae5\u66f8\uff0c\u5be6\u5728\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u52dd\u5e0c\u5653\u3002 \u9ec3\u6d77\u66f8\u4e2d\u591a\u6b21\u611f\u6168\u79d1\u5e7b\u6587\u5b78\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u4f4e\u843d\uff0c\u81ea\u5f9e\u8377\u91cc\u6d3b\u639b\u540d\u79d1\u5e7b\u7684\u96fb\u8166\u7279\u6280\u7247\u7576\u9053\u5f8c\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u5fc3\u4e2d\u79d1\u5e7b\u8207\u901a\u4fd7\u5a1b\u6a02\u756b\u4e0a\u7b49\u865f\uff0c\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u5728\u56b4\u8085\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u6587\u5b78\u4e4b\u5916\u3002\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u662f\u9ec3\u6d77\u8eab\u70ba\u4f5c\u5bb6\u7684\u60c5\u610f\u7d50\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u6e2f\u53f0\u7f3a\u4e4f\u79d1\u5e7b\u548c\u79d1\u5b78\u6587\u5316\u7684\u571f\u58e4\uff0c\u6211\u8eab\u8655\u5317\u7f8e\u4ee5\u77fd\u8c37\u70ba\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684geek\u6587\u5316\u5708\u4e2d\uff0c\u79d1\u5e7b\u6587\u5b78\u4e00\u76f4\u90fd\u88ab\u53d7\u63a8\u5d07\uff0c\u5730\u4f4d\u751a\u81f3\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e3b\u6d41\u6587\u5b78\u3002\u6211\u5011\u7406\u79d1\u4eba\u6216\u591a\u6216\u5c11\u7e3d\u662f\u8f15\u8996\u6587\u5b78\u548c\u85dd\u8853\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u90a3\u4e9b\u662f\u66f2\u9ad8\u8207\u5be1\u7684\u5c0f\u773e\u73a9\u5152\uff0c\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u7528\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u770b\u7684\u60b6\u6771\u897f\u3002\u53cd\u800c\u8b1b\u6c42\u5275\u610f\u601d\u7dad\u524d\u81bd\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\uff0c\u6210\u70ba\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u5922\u60f3\u548c\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u8981\u628a\u79d1\u5e7b\u4e2d\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u5316\u70ba\u73fe\u5be6\uff0c\u624d\u6703\u5f9e\u4e00\u500b\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u9032\u5316\u6210geek\u3002 \u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u611b\u597d\u8005\uff0c\u5fc5\u5b9a\u6703\u5f88\u559c\u6b61\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u3002\u6b64\u66f8\u96d6\u7136\u597d\u770b\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u9069\u5408\u624b\u4e0d\u91cb\u5377\u5730\u4e00\u6b21\u904e\u95b1\u8b80\u3002\u8aa0\u5982\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u81ea\u5e8f\u4e2d\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u6b64\u66f8\u662f\u4ed6\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u95dc\u65bc\u79d1\u5e7b\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u7d50\u96c6\uff0c\u6587\u7ae0\u4e4b\u9593\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u5167\u5bb9\u91cd\u758a\uff0c\u82e5\u4e00\u53e3\u6c23\u770b\u6703\u6709\u9ede\u6c89\u60b6\uff0c\u600e\u6a23\u540c\u4e00\u9ede\u5b50\u4e0d\u505c\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5982\u679c\u5206\u958b\u95b1\u8b80\uff0c\u6709\u7a7a\u6642\u624d\u62ff\u51fa\u4f86\u8b80\u4e00\u7ae0\uff0c\u6bcf\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u91cd\u8986\u9ede\u4f8b\u5b50\u53ea\u662f\u65c1\u679d\uff0c\u7d30\u7bc0\u9694\u5e7e\u5929\u4e5f\u8a18\u4e0d\u5f97\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u4fbf\u4e0d\u6703\u89ba\u4f5c\u8005\u9577\u6c23\u6c89\u60b6\u4e86\u3002 \u6700\u5f8c\u4f8b\u51fa\u66f8\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u95dc\u65bc\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u91d1\u53e5\uff0c\u8207\u5927\u5bb6\u5206\u4eab\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u5341\u5206\u610f\u601d\u3002\u79d1\u5e7b\u611b\u597d\u8005\uff0c\u8b80\u4f86\u9019\u4e9b\u91d1\u53e5\uff0c\u60f3\u5fc5\u6703\u5fc3\u5fae\u7b11\uff0c\u5f77\u5982\u4ed6\u9109\u9047\u77e5\u97f3\u4eba\u3002 \u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u5c31\u662f\u5982\u679c\u7684\u85dd\u8853 - \u9ec3\u6d77 \u5408\u7406\u5316\u8d85\u73fe\u5be6\u7684\u60f3\u50cf\uff0c\u662f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u6700\u5927\u516c\u7d04\u6578 - \u9ec3\u6d77 \u6240\u6709\u8d85\u5e38\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u90fd\u5fc5\u9808\u6709\u5408\u7406\u7684\u89e3\u91cb - Edgar Allany\u8aaa\u660e\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u898f\u5247 \u79d1\u5e7b\u611b\u597d\u8005\u50be\u5411\u8996\u7121\u7779\u66f8\u4e2d\u5c0d\u79d1\u5b78\u6b63\u7d71\u7684\u8d8a\u754c\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u8d85\u5149\u901f\u98db\u884c\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u53c8\u5c0d\u5c0f\u7d15\u6f0f\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\u5439\u6bdb\u6c42\u75aa\u3002- Adam Roberts \u79d1\u5b78\u5728\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e2d\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u985e\u4f3c\u65bc\u639b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u91d8\u5b50 - \u9ec3\u6d77 \u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u88cf\u7684\u79d1\u5b78\u591a\u534a\u662f\u507d\u79d1\u5b78\uff0c\u662f\u85c9\u4ee5\u64f4\u5145\u5e7b\u60f3\u7bc4\u570d\u7684\u5de5\u5177 - \u5f35\u7cfb\u570b \u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4f01\u5716\u4f54\u6709\u4e3b\u6d41\u6587\u5b78\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u662f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u300c\u58ae\u843d\u300d\u3002\u7531\u6b21\u6587\u5316\u300c\u58ae\u843d\u300d\u56de\u4e3b\u6587\u5316\u53bb\uff0c\u5c0d\u6b21\u6587\u5316\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u6210\u54e1\u8b1b\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5012\u9000\uff0c\u5176\u81f3\u662f\u7a2e\u96e2\u300c\u7d93\u300d\u53db\u300c\u9053\u300d\u7684\u73fe\u50cf - \u5f35\u7cfb\u570b \u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u88cf\u6c11\u65c5\u8eab\u4efd\u7684\u7279\u9ede\u4e26\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981 - \u5c0f\u6c60\u5c71\u91ce \u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u5a01\u8105\u4e26\u975e\u4f86\u81ea\u5176\u4ed6\u901a\u4fd7\u5c0f\u8aaa\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u548c\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u722d\u98df\u79d1\u5e7b\u5927\u9905\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u96fb\u5f71 - \u7d00\u5927\u5049 \u4ed6\u5f9e\u672b\u9577\u5927\uff0c\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u505c\u6b62\u9577\u5927 - Arthur C. Clark\u7684\u5893\u8a8c\u9298\uff08\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e5f\u662f\u79d1\u5e7b\u8ff7\u7684\u5beb\u7167\uff09","rel":"","context":"In "\u66f8\u8a55"","block_context":{"text":"\u66f8\u8a55","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/s27307293-213x300.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":12034,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/28\/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/","url_meta":{"origin":7310,"position":1},"title":"Antifragile – Nassim Nicholas Taleb","author":"hevangel","date":"March 28, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u6191\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300b\u9810\u6e2c\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u4e00\u8209\u6210\u540d\u7684Nassim Nicholas Taleb\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u8b80\u8005\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u5730\u628a\u4ed6\u7684\u65b0\u66f8\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300b\u6b78\u985e\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u66f8\u85c9\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u95dc\u65bc\u54f2\u5b78\u7684\u66f8\u3002Taleb\u9664\u4e86\u662f\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u7406\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4efd\u6b63\u8077\u662f\u54f2\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u5f88\u7279\u5225\u7684\u66f8\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u4f60\u53ea\u60f3\u96de\u7cbe\u901f\u6210\u5730\u4e00\u89bd\u66f8\u4e2d\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6709\u7528\u7684\u6771\u897f\uff0c\u4e0d\u59a8\u770b\u7db2\u7d61\u4e0a\u7684\u66f8\u8a55\u6216\u95b1\u8b80\u5fc3\u5f97\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7528\u770b\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u770b\u770b\u5c01\u9762\u66f8\u540d\u4e0b\u65b9\u7684\u526f\u6a19\u984c\u5c31\u5920\u4e86\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u4e00\u53e5\u8b1b\u5b8c\uff1a\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5805\u56fa\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u3002\u8106\u5f31\u8005\u4e0d\u582a\u52d5\u8569\u7684\u4e00\u64ca\uff0c\u5805\u56fa\u8005\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u5ef6\u9072\u88ab\u52d5\u8569\u64ca\u7834\u7684\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u5247\u8d8a\u4e82\u8d8a\u597d\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u4ee5\u751f\u7269\u9032\u5316\u70ba\u7c43\u672c\u7684\u6709\u6a5f\u7cfb\u7d71\u3002 \u96d6\u7136\u5168\u66f8\u91cd\u9ede\u4e00\u53e5\u8b1b\u5b8c\uff0cTaleb\u53ef\u4e0d\u662f\u9a19\u7a3f\u8cbb\uff0c\u624d\u5beb\u9019\u90e8\u4e94\u767e\u591a\u9801\u7684\u9245\u8457\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u8aaa\u4ed6\u7684\u524d\u4f5c\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300b\u548c\u300a\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc\u300b\u662f\u5916\u529f\u62db\u5f0f\uff0c\u9019\u90e8\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300b\u5247\u662f\u5167\u529f\u5fc3\u6cd5\uff0c\u628a\u4ed6\u7562\u751f\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u548c\u505a\u4eba\u54f2\u5b78\uff0c\u5c0d\u96a8\u6a5f\u5f8b\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u6574\u7406\u8a18\u9304\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5bf6\u5178\u3002\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\u9019\u4e00\u500b\u6168\u5ff5\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u4f60\u660e\u767d\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u8b1b\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u5341\u5206\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u9ede\u300c\u963f\u5abd\u4fc2\u5973\u4eba\u300d\u7684\u611f\u89ba\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u525b\u958b\u59cb\u8b80\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6642\uff0c\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\u7684\u6168\u5ff5\u986f\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u5408\u5e38\u8b58\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u9700\u8981\u82b1\u8cbb\u4e0d\u5c11\u7bc7\u5e45\uff0c\u5c64\u5c64\u6f38\u9032\u5730\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u9010\u9ede\u9010\u9ede\u53bb\u555f\u8499\u8b80\u8005\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u4f60\u660e\u767d\u5c31\u660e\u767d\uff0c\u4e0d\u660e\u767d\u5c31\u4e0d\u660e\u767d\u7684\u66f8\uff0c\u660e\u767d\u4e86\u4fbf\u4e00\u7406\u901a\u767e\u7406\u660e\u3002\u5728\u95b1\u8b80\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6703\u6709\u300c\u53ee\u300d\u4e00\u8072\u7a81\u7136\u958b\u7ac5\u7684\u524e\u90a3\u3002\u958b\u7ac5\u524d\uff0c\u4f60\u6703\u89ba\u5f97\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u662f\u7648\u8a71\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u662f\u6beb\u7121\u6839\u64da\u7684\u4e82\u8aaa\uff1b\u958b\u7ac5\u5f8c\uff0c\u4f60\u6703\u89ba\u5f97\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u662f\u7648\u8a71\uff0c\u9019\u9ebc\u6dfa\u7684\u6771\u897f\uff0c\u90a3\u9700\u8981\u5982\u6b64\u9577\u7bc7\u5927\u8ad6\u3002 \u82e5\u679c\u770b\u5b8c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u5f97\u8457\uff0c\u53ea\u505c\u7559\u5728\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\u7684\u61c9\u7528\u5c64\u9762\uff08\u5916\u529f\u62db\u5f0f\uff09\uff0c\u5982\u8981\u64c1\u62b1\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u5bb3\u6015\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u614e\u9632\u300c\u8d0f\u7c92\u7cd6\uff0c\u8f38\u9593\u5ee0\u300d\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u300c\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u300d\u7684\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\uff0c\u628a\u98a8\u96aa\u8f49\u79fb\u5230\u4ed6\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u6050\u6015\u932f\u8aa4\u89e3\u8b80\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u539f\u610f\u3002\u770b\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u5f97\u8457\uff0c\u662f\u6539\u8b8a\u6211\u5c0d\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5f9e\u65b0\u8a8d\u8b58\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff08\u5176\u5be6\u53ea\u662f\u5ef6\u7e8c\u5169\u90e8\u524d\u4f5c\u7684\u4e3b\u984c\uff09\u3002\u5728\u7406\u8ad6\u77e5\u8b58\u81f3\u4e0a\u7684\u73fe\u4ee3\u793e\u6703\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u79d1\u5b78\u9084\u662f\u793e\u6703\u653f\u6cbb\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u6709\u4e00\u7a2e\u5168\u77e5\u5168\u80fd\u7684\u50b2\u6162\uff0c\u5f77\u5ffd\u80fd\u770b\u900f\u4e16\u4e8b\u56e0\u679c\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u96a8\u6a5f\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u800c\u5c0d\u65bc\u81ea\u5df2\u7121\u77e5\u7684\u7121\u77e5\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u6700\u5371\u96aa\u4e0d\u904e\u7684\u4e8b\u3002 \u66f8\u4e2d\u7b2c\u516d\u5377\u662f\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u5065\u5eb7\u6307\u5357\uff0c\u63a8\u795f\u50b3\u7d71\u81ea\u7136\u7642\u6cd5\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u89c0\u9ede\u4e00\u91dd\u898b\u8840\u6307\u51fa\u73fe\u4ee3\u91ab\u5b78\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u6709\u4e9b\u5167\u5bb9\u7f3a\u4e4f\u79d1\u5b78\u6839\u64da\u3002\u8a6d\u7570\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u73fe\u4ee3\u4eba\u8ff7\u4fe1\u79d1\u5b78\u6839\u64da\uff0c\u6b63\u6b63\u662f\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\u6279\u64ca\u7684\u5c0d\u50cf\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e03\u5377\u662f\u5efa\u57fa\u65bc\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\u6168\u5ff5\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u9053\u5fb7\u54f2\u5b78\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u4e0a\u7684\u300c\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u96e3\u984c\u300d\uff0c\u73fe\u4ee3\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7522\u751f\u8ca7\u5bcc\u61f8\u6b8a\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u628a\u554f\u984c\u6838\u5fc3\u6b78\u548e\u65bc\u300c\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u300d\u7684\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\u6027\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee5\u6b64\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u63d0\u51fa\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u5584\u793e\u6703\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u6a5f\u5236\u3002\u9019\u4e00\u7ae0\u7684\u54f2\u5b78\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u6b63\u597d\u70ba\u6211\u63d0\u4f9b\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u89d2\u5ea6\u53bb\u89e3\u91cb\u53f3\u7ffc\u300c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\u6bd4\u5de6\u7ffc\u300c\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u5c0d\u300d\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u7406\u64da\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u9084\u9700\u8981\u6642\u9593\u53bb\u6d88\u5316\u6574\u7406\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\u300c\u516c\u53f8\u6cd5\u4eba\u300d\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0a\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\u7684\u9019\u500b\u95dc\u9375\u3002 \u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u8b80\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u55ae\u65b9\u9762\u5438\u6536\u66f8\u672c\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\uff0c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u662f\u53cd\u601d\u7136\u5f8c\u628a\u601d\u60f3\u5167\u5728\u5316\uff0c\u5927\u6168\u54f2\u5b78\u66f8\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u662f\u6bd4\u8f03\u96e3\u8b80\u5427\u3002","rel":"","context":"In "\u66f8\u8a55"","block_context":{"text":"\u66f8\u8a55","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Antifragile.jpg?fit=360%2C471&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2821,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2009\/04\/30\/%e5%85%a9%e9%80%b1%e4%b8%80%e8%81%9a%ef%b9%95%e4%b8%96%e7%95%8c%e8%a7%80\/","url_meta":{"origin":7310,"position":2},"title":"\u5169\u9031\u4e00\u805a\ufe55\u4e16\u754c\u89c0","author":"hevangel","date":"April 30, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"\u524d\u8a00\ufe55\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u53eb\u300c\u5169\u5468\u4e00\u805a\u300d\u7684\u6d3b\u52d5\u3002\u662f\u7db2\u53cb\u7c73\u96ea\u5152\u767c\u8d77\u3002\u6bcf\u6708\u5341\u4e94\u65e5\ufe51\u4e09\u5341\u65e5\ufe50\u4e00\u73ed\u4f4f\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u4e0d\u540c\u89d2\u843d\u7684\u9999\u6e2f\u4eba\u90fd\u6703\u4e00\u8d77\u5beb\u540c\u4e00\u500b\u984c\u76ee\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u662f\u7b2c\u5341\u4e09\u6b21\u76f8\u805a\uff0c\u7531 tzigane \u51fa\u984c\uff0c\u4e3b\u984c\u5b9a\u70ba\u300c\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\u300d\u3002 \u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\u4e5f\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\ufe50\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\u4f86\u81ea\u5bb6\u5ead\u6587\u5316\u80cc\u666f\ufe50\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\u4f86\u81ea\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u5b97\u6559\u4fe1\u4ef0\u3002\u7d30\u60f3\u6211\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\u5f9e\u4f55\u800c\u4f86\ufe50\u5927\u6168\u662f\u901a\u904e\u6211\u95b1\u8b80\u7684\u66f8\u85c9\ufe50\u9010\u9ede\u9010\u9ede\u5438\u6536\u66f8\u672c\u4e2d\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\ufe50\u6f5b\u79fb\u9ed8\u5316\u4e0b\u85b0\u837c\u6210\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002 \u4e0d\u8a08\u7b97\u5152\u7ae5\u6642\u4ee3\u770b\u7684\u7ae5\u8a71\u6545\u4e8b\ufe50\u6700\u65e9\u5f71\u97ff\u6211\u65e5\u5f8c\u60f3\u6cd5\u7684\u66f8\ufe50\u5c31\u662f\u885b\u65af\u7406\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u3002\u4e94\u5e74\u7d1a\u770b\u7b2c\u4e00\u672c\u885b\u65af\u7406\ufe50\u5c0f\u5b78\u672a\u7562\u696d\u5df2\u770b\u7f77\u5168\u5957\u3002\u7528\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u773c\u5149\u4f86\u770b\ufe50\u885b\u65af\u7406\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u5176\u5be6\u4e0d\u5165\u6d41\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u885b\u65af\u7406\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\ufe50\u5df2\u7d93\u70d9\u5370\u5728\u6211\u5e74\u7d00\u8f15\u8f15\u7684\u8166\u6d77\u4e2d\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\ufe50\u4e5f\u8a31\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u4e0d\u6703\u9047\u898b\u5916\u661f\u4eba\ufe50\u5e7d\u9748\ufe50\u5deb\u8853\ufe50\u9b3c\u795e\ufe50\u4f46\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e8b\u7269\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5011\u61c9\u8a72\u8981\u958b\u653e\u5fc3\u9748\ufe50\u53bb\u8fce\u63a5\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002 \u4e2d\u4e8c\u7684\u6642\u5019\u6211\u9047\u4e0a\u4e86\u91d1\u5eb8\ufe50\u9019\u6b21\u53ea\u7528\u4e86\u56db\u500b\u6708\u6642\u9593\u4fbf\u8b80\u5b8c\u5341\u56db\u90e8\u5929\u66f8\ufe50\u518d\u5728\u9918\u4e0b\u7684\u534a\u5e74\u91cd\u8986\u8b80\u4e86\u4e0d\u53ea\u6578\u6b21\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8aaa\u7b2c\u4e00\u672c\u770b\u7684\u91d1\u5eb8\ufe50\u8db3\u4ee5\u5f71\u97ff\u6240\u4ee5\u91d1\u5eb8\u4f5c\u54c1\u7684\u5370\u8c61\u3002\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7b97\u5e78\u9084\u662f\u4e0d\u5e78\ufe50\u7576\u5e74\u6211\u5f9e\u7236\u89aa\u66f8\u6ac3\u96a8\u624b\u62ff\u8d77\u7b2c\u4e00\u672c\u91d1\u5eb8\u7adf\u7136\u662f\u300a\u9e7f\u9f0e\u8a18\u300b\ufe50\u91d1\u5eb8\u7684\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u672c\u4f5c\u54c1\ufe50\u4ea6\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u53cd\u6b66\u4fe0\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u6b66\u4fe0\u5c0f\u8aaa\u3002\u6211\u5b78\u4e0d\u5230\u90ed\u5029\u7684\u5fe0\u7fa9\ufe50\u5b78\u4e0d\u5230\u694a\u904e\u7684\u6df1\u60c5\ufe50\u5b78\u4e0d\u5230\u4ee4\u72d0\u6c96\u7684\u701f\u7051\ufe50\u5012\u5b78\u4e86\u97cb\u5c0f\u5bf6\u7684\u662f\u975e\u9053\u5fb7\u89c0\u3002\u570b\u5bb6\u6c11\u65cf\u610f\u8b58\u8584\u5f31\ufe50\u884c\u4e8b\u4e0d\u53d7\u9053\u5fb7\u6559\u689d\u898f\u7bc4\u675f\u7e1b\ufe50\u4e0d\u904e\u9084\u80fd\u5206\u6e05\u695a\u5927\u662f\u5927\u975e\u3002 \u4e0d\u8a18\u5f97\u662f\u4e2d\u56db\u9084\u662f\u4e2d\u4e94\u90a3\u5e74\ufe50\u901b\u4e2d\u83ef\u66f8\u5c40\u6642\u96a8\u610f\u7ffb\u958b\u7530\u4e2d\u82b3\u6a39\u7684\u300a\u9280\u6cb3\u82f1\u96c4\u50b3\u8aaa\u300b\u3002\u8b80\u4e86\u5e8f\u7ae0\u5f8c\u653e\u4e0d\u91cb\u624b\ufe50\u65bc\u662f\u6367\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u4e8c\u5341\u672c\u5c0f\u8aaa\u56de\u5bb6\u3002\u9019\u5957\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u6d41\u884c\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\ufe50\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u6559\u6750\ufe50\u6539\u5beb\u4e00\u6574\u4ee3\u5e74\u8f15\u4eba\u7684\u601d\u6f6e\u3002\u694a\u5a01\u5229\u5c0d\u840a\u8335\u54c8\u7279\ufe50\u6c11\u4e3b\u5c0d\u7368\u88c1\ufe50\u81ea\u7531\u5c0d\u6975\u6b0a\ufe50\u6b63\u7fa9\u5c0d\u6b63\u7fa9\u3002\u5c31\u7b97\u73fe\u5728\u7db2\u4e0a\u53c3\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u8b70\u984c\u7684\u8a0e\u8ad6\ufe50\u4e45\u4e0d\u4e45\u4e5f\u6703\u770b\u898b\u6709\u4eba\u5f15\u7528\u694a\u5a01\u5229\u7684\u540d\u8a00\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u61a4\u9752\u4e5f\u8a31\u61c9\u8a72\u8b80\u8b80\u9019\u5c0f\u8aaa\ufe50\u8b80\u5b8c\u5f8c\u6216\u8a31\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0d\u6703\u518d\u76f2\u76ee\u5d07\u62dc\u5927\u4e2d\u570b\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3002\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u9673\u4e00\u8ae4\u7684\u516d\u56db\u6b6a\u7406\ufe50\u9084\u662f\u6210\u9f8d\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u592a\u81ea\u7531\ufe50\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f9e\u694a\u5a01\u5229\u7684\u60f3\u601d\u627e\u5230\u7b54\u6848\u3002 \u53d7\u5230\u885b\u65af\u7406\u7684\u555f\u8499\ufe50\u6211\u611b\u4e0a\u770b\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\ufe50\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u5927\u5e2b\u963f\u897f\u83ab\u592b\u66f4\u662f\u6211\u7684\u6700\u611b\u3002\u5728\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u8b80\u9ad8\u6821\u7684\u6642\u5019\ufe50\u5728\u5b78\u6821\u5716\u66f8\u9928\u501f\u4e86\u672c\u300a\u6c38\u6046\u7684\u7d42\u7d50\u300b\u3002\u9019\u672c\u5c0f\u8aaa\u5728\u773e\u591a\u963f\u897f\u83ab\u592b\u7684\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e2d\u4e26\u51fa\u540d\ufe50\u6c92\u6709\u300a\u57fa\u5730\u7cfb\u5217\u300b\u6216\u300a\u6a5f\u68b0\u4eba\u7cfb\u5217\u300b\u7684\u5b8f\u89c0\u4e16\u754c\ufe50\u597d\u50cf\u73fe\u5728\u9084\u7d55\u7248\u4e86\ufe50\u60f3\u8cb7\u4e5f\u8cb7\u4e0d\u5230\u3002\u6545\u4e8b\u8b1b\u8ff0\u4eba\u985e\u767c\u660e\u4e86\u6642\u5149\u6a5f\ufe50\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fd4\u56de\u904e\u53bb\u6539\u5beb\u6b77\u53f2\ufe50\u628a\u4eba\u985e\u6240\u72af\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u7d71\u7d71\u4fee\u6b63\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\u7d50\u5c40\u5f88\u66f2\u62c6\u96e2\u5947\ufe50\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u6700\u5927\u932f\u8aa4\u4fbf\u662f\u767c\u660e\u4e86\u6642\u5149\u6a5f\ufe50\u4ee4\u4eba\u985e\u4e0d\u518d\u72af\u932f\ufe50\u4ea6\u540c\u6642\u596a\u53bb\u4e86\u4eba\u985e\u5f9e\u932f\u8aa4\u4e2d\u6210\u9577\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u6642\u5149\u6a5f\u7684\u6700\u5f8c\u4efb\u52d9\u4fbf\u662f\u8fd4\u56de\u904e\u53bb\ufe50\u963b\u6b62\u611b\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u7814\u7a76\u6642\u5149\u6a5f\u7406\u8ad6\ufe50\u53d6\u800c\u4ee3\u4e4b\u4fc3\u6210\u6838\u5b50\u5f48\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u8b93\u4eba\u985e\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f9e\u6230\u722d\u4e2d\u6210\u9577\ufe50\u6700\u7d42\u6210\u70ba\u5b87\u5b99\u7684\u7d71\u6cbb\u8005\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\u65b0\u79d1\u6280\u5e36\u4f86\u65b0\u554f\u984c\ufe50\u4ed6\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u65b0\u79d1\u6280\u6700\u597d\u6c92\u6709\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u5fd8\u8a18\u4e86\u53ea\u6709\u4ee5\u79d1\u6280\u624d\u80fd\u89e3\u6c7a\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u4e0d\u53bb\u9762\u5c0d\u514b\u670d\u9019\u4e9b\u554f\u984c\ufe50\u4eba\u985e\u6700\u7d42\u5c31\u6703\u50cf\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e2d\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u5b87\u5b99\u822c\ufe50\u5446\u5750\u5b88\u8457\u9019\u500b\u5730\u7403\u7b49\u5f85\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7684\u4f86\u81e8\u3002 \u5f9e\u5927\u5b78\u958b\u59cb\u6211\u6bcf\u661f\u671f\u4e5f\u770b\u300a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u4eba\u300b\u96dc\u8a8c\ufe50\u5927\u5b78\u4e2d\u7684\u9078\u4fee\u8ab2\u4e5f\u8b80\u4e86\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\ufe50\u66f4\u662f\u7531\u660e\u661f\u7d1a\u6559\u6388Larry Smith\u4efb\u6559\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3b\u4fee\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\ufe50\u6df1\u4e00\u9ede\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5206\u6790\u770b\u4e0d\u660e\u767d\ufe50\u4f46\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4eba\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u601d\u7dad\ufe50\u65e9\u5df2\u6df1\u6df1\u624e\u6839\u5728\u6211\u7684\u8166\u888b\u88cf\u3002\u6211\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u54f2\u5b78\u662f\u5178\u578b\u53f3\u6d3e\u4e3b\u5834\ufe50\u53cd\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9810\u548c\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u5728\u5831\u7ae0\u6216\u7db2\u4e0a\u770b\u898b\u6301\u5de6\u6d3e\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u4eba\u5beb\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\ufe50\u6211\u7e3d\u6703\u4e0d\u671f\u7136\u5206\u6790\u6279\u8a55\u4ed6\u5011\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u8b2c\u8aa4\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u5de5\u9918\u6642\u4fee\u8b80\u54f2\u5b78\ufe50\u8b80\u904e\u99ac\u514b\u601d\u7684\u539f\u8457\ufe50\u5de6\u6d3e\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\ufe50\u770b\u6cd5\u958b\u59cb\u6709\u4e00\u9ede\u6539\u8b8a\u3002\u5de6\u6d3e\u60f3\u601d\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u4e00\u7121\u53ef\u53d6\ufe50\u5de6\u6d3e\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\u662f\u5617\u8a66\u53bb\u89e3\u6c7a\u53f3\u6d3e\u601d\u60f3\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u554f\u984c\ufe50\u800c\u90a3\u4e9b\u554f\u984c\u4e5f\u662f\u78ba\u5207\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u53ea\u662f\u5de6\u6d3e\u9664\u4e86\u6307\u51fa\u554f\u984c\u5916\ufe50\u9084\u5617\u8a66\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u5957\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u53ea\u53ef\u60dc\u90a3\u4e9b\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e26\u4e0d\u53ef\u884c\ufe50\u53ea\u6703\u884d\u751f\u6bd4\u554f\u984c\u672c\u8eab\u66f4\u52a0\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u65b0\u554f\u984c\u3002 \u8fd1\u5e7e\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u4fee\u8b80\u54f2\u5b78\ufe50\u5c0d\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u6709\u65b0\u7684\u9ad4\u6703\u3002\u5728\u8ab2\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6211\u5b78\u7fd2\u8a8d\u8b58\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\ufe50\u5927\u6168\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\u7684\u7d44\u6210\ufe50\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u5225\u8ffd\u6714\u5230\u67d0\u4e00\u500b\u54f2\u5b78\u5bb6\u7684\u67d0\u4e00\u500b\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u7576\u6211\u6bcf\u5b78\u671f\u4fee\u8b80\u65b0\u4e00\u79d1\u54f2\u5b78\u8ab2\ufe50\u63a5\u89f8\u65b0\u7684\u54f2\u5b78\u601d\u60f3\ufe50\u4e5f\u6703\u8b93\u6211\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\u6703\u7522\u751f\u8b8a\u5316\u3002\u6211\u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u5341\u5206\u53cd\u5c0d\u67d0\u4e9b\u54f2\u5b78\u601d\u60f3\ufe50\u5728\u8b80\u5b8c\u90a3\u79d1\u660e\u767d\u90a3\u4e9b\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u6b63\u78ba\u89e3\u8b80\u5f8c\ufe50\u537b\u767c\u73fe\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u601d\u8003\u6a21\u5f0f\u539f\u4f86\u4e00\u76f4\u4e5f\u53d7\u5176\u601d\u60f3\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u6211\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u5ff5\u982d\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u5920\u5be6\u8e10\ufe50\u5c31\u662f\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5730\u5716\u7e6a\u756b\u51fa\u4f86\ufe50\u5f9e\u958b\u59cb\u5230\u7d42\u7d50\u8ffd\u8e64\u6211\u6240\u6709\u60f3\u6cd5\u7684\u4f86\u9f8d\u53bb\u8108\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u91ce\u5fc3\u7684\u8a08\u5283\ufe50\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u4f5c\u70ba\u81ea\u6211\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u7d42\u6975\u53cd\u601d\u3002\u9019\u500b\u8a08\u5283\u525b\u525b\u9081\u51fa\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\ufe50\u4e0d\u662f\u6307\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\ufe50\u800c\u662f\u6307\u6211\u5b89\u88dd\u4e86Wiki\u4e26\u6b63\u5b78\u7fd2\u4f7f\u7528\ufe50\u6253\u7b97\u7528\u4f86\u8a18\u9304\u6211\u7684\u54f2\u5b78\u7b46\u8a18\ufe50\u4ee5\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u91cd\u7d44\u51fa\u6211\u7684\u601d\u8003\u5730\u5716\u3002 \u5176\u4ed6\u6587\u7ae0\ufe55\u00a0The Man Who Loves Everton\u3001chilli mom \u3001Haricot\u3001wanni\u3001HumptiDumpti\u3001longqt\u3001\u5468\u6e38\u3001lomichee\u3001Nankin\u3001\u6d1b\u8a00\u3001Michelle\u3001\u8ecd\u5e2b\u5976\u3001\u8b80\u98df\u3001hevangel\u3001athrunz\u3001Mugen C\u3001coffee\u3001\u82b8\u3001kempton\u3001mad dog\u3001\u706b\u7fbd \u82e5\u679c\u60f3\u53c3\u52a0\u5169\u5468\u4e00\u805a\u7684\u670b\u53cb\ufe50\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c3\u770b\u9019\u500b\u7db2\u9801\u3002","rel":"","context":"In "\u5169\u9031\u4e00\u805a"","block_context":{"text":"\u5169\u9031\u4e00\u805a","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_2weeks\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4315,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2010\/07\/03\/%e6%96%b0%e8%b3%a3%e6%a1%94%e8%80%85%e8%a8%80-%e5%bc%b5%e4%ba%94%e5%b8%b8\/","url_meta":{"origin":7310,"position":3},"title":"\u65b0\u8ce3\u6854\u8005\u8a00 – \u5f35\u4e94\u5e38","author":"hevangel","date":"July 3, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u662f\u6211\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u555f\u8499\u8001\u5e2b\ufe50\u6211\u4e2d\u5b78\u5538\u7406\u79d1\u73ed\ufe50\u6703\u8003\u6c92\u6709\u4fee\u8b80\u7d93\u6fdf\u79d1\ufe50\u672c\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7121\u7de3\u3002\u67d0\u5e74\u5728\u5bb6\u7236\u7684\u66f8\u623f\u4e2d\ufe50\u627e\u5230\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u7684\u820a\u4f5c\u300a\u8ce3\u6854\u8005\u8a00\u300b\ufe50\u8b80\u7562\u9a5a\u70ba\u5929\u4eba\ufe50\u65b9\u77e5\u5f88\u591a\u65e5\u5e38\u4e8b\u7269\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u53bb\u89e3\u91cb\u3002\u8b80\u5927\u5b78\u6642\u66f4\u4e00\u53e3\u6c23\u8cb7\u4e86\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u6240\u6709\u85c9\u4f5c\ufe50\u4ed6\u90a3\u4e09\u5377\u300a\u7d93\u6fdf\u89e3\u91cb\u300b\u6df1\u5165\u6dfa\u51fa\u5730\u8b1b\u89e3\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\ufe50\u53ef\u8b02\u4e2d\u6587\u7d93\u5b78\u8b80\u7269\u4e4b\u5bf6\u3002\u53ef\u60dc\u8fd1\u5e74\u4ed6\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e86\u7121\u65b0\u610f\ufe50\u4e0d\u65b7\u91cd\u8986\u5730\u81ea\u5439\u81ea\u64c2\ufe50\u8b1b\u98a8\u96ea\u6708\u8b1b\u4ed6\u73a9\u66f8\u6cd5\u73a9\u651d\u5f71\u591a\ufe50\u6b63\u6b63\u7d93\u7d93\u8b1b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u5c11\ufe50\u65bc\u662f\u6211\u6f38\u6f38\u4fbf\u5c0d\u4ed6\u5931\u53bb\u8208\u8da3\u3002 \u4e0a\u6b21\u53bb\u5370\u5ea6\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u8f49\u6a5f\u6642\ufe50\u525b\u597d\u5728\u6a5f\u5834\u66f8\u5e97\u770b\u898b\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u7684\u65b0\u4f5c\u300a\u65b0\u8ce3\u6854\u8005\u8a00\u300b\u3002\u96a8\u4fbf\u5306\u5306\u5730\u7ffb\u770b\u76ee\u9304\ufe50\u770b\u898b\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5168\u90e8\u4e5f\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\ufe50\u52a0\u4e0a\u65e2\u7136\u51a0\u4e0a\u300a\u8ce3\u6854\u8005\u8a00\u300b\u4e4b\u62db\u724c\ufe50\u4fbf\u8349\u7387\u5730\u6c7a\u5b9a\u8cb7\u4e0b\u4f86\u3002\u4e0d\u7d93\u6df1\u601d\u719f\u616e\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7e3d\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u5f8c\u6094\ufe50\u6a5f\u5834\u66f8\u5e97\u8ce3\u66f8\u8981\u4ed8\u6b63\u50f9\ufe50\u56de\u7a0b\u6642\u53bb\u901b\u65fa\u89d2\u6a13\u4e0a\u66f8\u5e97\ufe50\u624d\u767c\u73fe\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5b9c\u4e00\u5927\u622a\u3002\u300a\u65b0\u8ce3\u6854\u8005\u8a00\u300b\u958b\u982d\u4e94\u5206\u4e00\u672c\u66f8\ufe50\u7adf\u7136\u628a\u524d\u4f5c\u300a\u8ce3\u6854\u8005\u8a00\u300b\u7684\u820a\u6587\u642c\u5b57\u904e\u7d19\ufe50\u8ce3\u6854\u8005\u8a00\u8b8a\u6210\u6df7\u5409\u8005\u8a00\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u8ac7\u8ad6\u4e2d\u570b\u6539\u9769\u958b\u653e\ufe50\u90a3\u4e9b\u5169\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5beb\u65bc\u6539\u9769\u521d\u671f\ufe50\u89c0\u9ede\u73fe\u5728\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u6709\u9ede\u904e\u6642\u3002\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u592a\u904e\u6a02\u89c0\ufe50\u53ea\u770b\u5230\u6539\u9769\u7684\u597d\u8655\ufe50\u537b\u6c92\u6709\u770b\u5230\u53ea\u6539\u9769\u7d93\u6fdf\ufe50\u4e0d\u6539\u9769\u653f\u6cbb\u57cb\u4e0b\u7684\u70b8\u7206\u3002\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4fe1\u4efb\u7684\u57fa\u790e\u4e0a\ufe50\u53ef\u662f\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u4f3c\u4e4e\u770b\u4e0d\u5230\u4e2d\u570b\u8aa0\u4fe1\u7834\u7522\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u9f90\u5927\u4ea4\u6613\u8cbb\u7528\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e09\u90e8\u8b1b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5b9a\u5f8b\ufe50\u53ef\u662f\u5206\u6790\u5beb\u5f97\u592a\u904e\u819a\u6dfa\ufe50\u800c\u6709\u4e9b\u5b9a\u5f8b\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u66f4\u662f\u8aaa\u932f\u4e86\u3002\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u6279\u8a55\u80a1\u7968\u5716\u8868\u6d3e\u5439\u6c34\ufe50\u4f46\u4ed6\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u80a1\u5e02\u77ed\u671f\u4e0a\u843d\u6700\u7d42\u662f\u4eba\u70ba\u5fc3\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\u6240\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002\u7576\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u81f3\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u96fb\u8166\u4e5f\u7528\u5716\u8868\u5206\u6790\u53bb\u6c7a\u5b9a\u8cb7\u8ce3\ufe50\u90a3\u5716\u8868\u5728\u7d55\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u6642\u9593\u4fbf\u6703\u6210\u70ba\u81ea\u6211\u5be6\u73fe\u7684\u9810\u8a00\u3002\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u81ea\u5927\u5b78\u4ee5\u5f8c\ufe50\u9084\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u9032\u4fee\u904e\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\ufe50\u6211\u4fbf\u4e0a\u5b78\u671f\u525b\u525b\u8b80\u904e \u3002\u4ed6\u8aaa\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u662f\u7a7a\u4e2d\u6a13\u95a3\u6c92\u6709\u5be6\u969b\u7528\u9014\ufe50\u4f46\u4ed6\u5927\u6168\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u5728\u5236\u5ea6\u8a2d\u8a08\u4e2d\u7684\u5a01\u529b\u3002\u5de5\u8cc7\u5b9a\u5f8b\u6211\u5012\u8a8d\u540c\u4ed6\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\ufe50\u53ef\u662f\u4ed6\u8b1b\u4e00\u534a\u4e0d\u8b1b\u4e00\u534a\ufe50\u5bb3\u6211\u8b80\u4e0d\u5230\u5b8c\u6574\u63a8\u8ad6\u610f\u7336\u672a\u76e1\u3002 \u7b2c\u56db\u90e8\u4efd\u5f9e\u89c0\u5bdf\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\ufe50\u767c\u6398\u51fa\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u898f\u5f8b\u3002Freakonomic,Undercover Economist\u9019\u985e\u66f8\u5728\u5916\u570b\u5f88\u6d41\u884c\ufe50\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u8207\u5176\u6bd4\u8f03\u5be6\u5c6c\u5c0f\u5152\u79d1\u3002\u5f9e\u9999\u53e3\u81a0\u8aaa\u98a8\u4fd7\u7fd2\u6163\u53ef\u4ee5\u6e1b\u4f4e\u4ea4\u6613\u8cbb\u7528\ufe50\u4f46\u4ed6\u537b\u6c92\u6709\u591a\u8d70\u4e00\u6b65\ufe50\u6307\u51fa\u4ea4\u6613\u8cbb\u7528\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f71\u97ff\u98a8\u4fd7\u7fd2\u6163\u3002\u738a\u77f3\u62cd\u8ce3\u904e\u7a0b\u5f88\u597d\u5947\ufe50\u6211\u60f3\u77e5\u904e\u5916\u570b\u7684\u7389\u77f3\u62cd\u8ce3\u662f\u5426\u4e5f\u662f\u540c\u6a23\u904b\u4f5c\ufe50\u9084\u662f\u7528\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u53bb\u8a2d\u8a08\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7387\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5236\u5ea6\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5047\u8ca8\u73fe\u50cf\ufe50\u90a3\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u4e0d\u7528\u8b80\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u90fd\u61c2\ufe50\u4ed6\u600e\u9ebc\u53c8\u4e0d\u7814\u7a76\u5403\u4e86\u6703\u6b7b\u4eba\u7684\u5047\u86cb\u5047\u9f13\u6cb9\u3002\u7092\u9ec3\u725b\u7968\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u6790\u6709\u53ef\u53d6\u4e4b\u8655\ufe50\u4e0d\u904e\u6587\u7ae0\u5beb\u5f97\u4e0d\u76e1\u4e0d\u5be6\ufe50\u770b\u5b8c\u4e86\u9084\u4e0d\u660e\u767d\u5982\u4f55\u628a\u9ec3\u725b\u7968\u6284\u843d\ufe50\u5230\u5e95\u8001\u95c6\u53ef\u4e0d\u53ef\u4ee5\u7e5e\u904e\u9ec3\u725b\u9ee8\ufe50\u53d6\u56de\u50f9\u683c\u5206\u6b67\u8755\u4e86\u7d66\u9ec3\u725b\u9ec3\u9ee8\u7684\u79df\u503c\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e94\u90e8\u4efd\u8b1b\u7368\u88c1\u7684\u904a\u6232\ufe50\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u5c0d\u5fae\u8edf\u58df\u65b7\u4e00\u6848\ufe50\u5206\u6790\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u8457\u908a\u969b\u3002\u91cd\u9ede\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u5728\u5fae\u8edf\u6709\u6c92\u5728\u58df\u65b7OS\u5e02\u5834\ufe50\u800c\u662f\u5728\u65bc\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u5730\u7528OS\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u58df\u65b7\ufe50\u53bb\u6253\u58d3\u5176\u4ed6\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u5c0d\u624b\u3002\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u9577\u5e74\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u5c45\u4f4f\ufe50\u53ef\u80fd\u4ed6\u5beb\u6587\u7ae0\u8981\u9644\u5408\u4e2d\u570b\u570b\u60c5\ufe50\u4e0d\u6562\u6b63\u9762\u6279\u8a55\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\ufe50\u751a\u81f3\u7d66\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u5857\u8102\u62b9\u7c89\ufe50\u8aaa\u7368\u88c1\u6bd4\u6c11\u4e3b\u597d\ufe50\u5be6\u5728\u770b\u4e0d\u904e\u773c\u3002 \u7b2c\u516d\u90e8\u4efd\u8b1b\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\ufe50\u4ed6\u6d41\u65bc\u672a\u514d\u9589\u9580\u9020\u8eca\u3002\u65e5\u65e5\u8cbf\u6613\u4f3c\u662f\u9053\u807d\u9014\u8aaa\ufe50\u6211\u61f7\u7591\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u7d93\u5f97\u8d77\u9a57\u8b49\u7684\u6578\u64da\u3002\u6210\u8863\u914d\u984d\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\ufe50\u6211\u770b\u4ed6\u662f\u99ac\u5f8c\u70ae\u62bd\u6cb9\u6c34\u5c45\u591a\ufe50\u4ed6\u7684\u601d\u7dad\u9084\u662f\u505c\u7559\u5728\u8ca8\u54c1\u9b25\u5e73\u9b25\u8ce4\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u7b2c\u4e03\u90e8\u4efd\u8b1b\u4e2d\u570b\u8fb2\u6751\ufe50\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u628a\u8fb2\u6751\u751f\u6d3b\u6d6a\u6f2b\u5316\ufe50\u4ed6\u597d\u50cf\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u6c11\u9593\u75be\u82e6\u3002\u5c31\u7b97\u4eca\u5929\u9913\u4e0d\u6b7b\ufe50\u90a3\u660e\u5929\u53c8\u5982\u4f55\u3002\u7559\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u8fb2\u6751\u751f\u6d3b\ufe50\u6839\u672c\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6c92\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u3002\u7b2c\u516b\u548c\u4e5d\u90e8\u4efd\u8b1b\u571f\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u548c\u516c\u53f8\u5408\u7d04\u672c\u8cea\u3002\u6211\u8a8d\u540c\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\ufe50\u4f46\u5acc\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0d\u5920\u8a73\u7d30\u3002\u4ed6\u4ea6\u6c92\u6709\u89e3\u6c7a\u571f\u5730\u548c\u516c\u53f8\u4e2d\ufe50\u6b0a\u529b\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u3002\u66f8\u672c\u5169\u7ae0\u8b1b\u8003\u53e4\u8b1b\u672a\u65e5\ufe50\u5c6c\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u5439\u6c34\u4e0d\u62b9\u5634\u4e4b\u8a00\ufe50\u53ea\u662f\u52c9\u5f37\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u626f\u4e0a\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002 \u9019\u672c\u5c07\u6703\u662f\u6211\u8cb7\u7684\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u672c\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u7684\u6563\u6587\ufe50\u4ed6\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u7d66\u6211\u6c5f\u90ce\u624d\u76e1\u7684\u611f\u89ba\u3002\u4e0d\u7528\u9322\u501f\u4f86\u7ffb\u7ffb\u6c92\u6709\u6240\u8b02\ufe50\u4f46\u4ed8\u51fa\u771f\u91d1\u767d\u9280\u4fbf\u5f88\u4e0d\u503c\ufe50\u5012\u4e0d\u597d\u8cb7\u5916\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6d41\u884c\u8b80\u7269\u597d\u904e\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5f35\u4e94\u5e38\u59cb\u7d42\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u6388\ufe50\u4ed6\u5beb\u90a3\u786c\u76ae\u66f8\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8ab2\u672c\ufe50\u6211\u9084\u662f\u6703\u7167\u820a\u6367\u5834\u3002","rel":"","context":"In "\u66f8\u8a55"","block_context":{"text":"\u66f8\u8a55","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/cover121231.jpg?fit=661%2C993&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/cover121231.jpg?fit=661%2C993&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/cover121231.jpg?fit=661%2C993&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2947,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2009\/05\/18\/%e9%bb%91%e5%a4%9c%e5%be%8b%e6%97%8b-%e8%ad%9a%e5%8a%8d\/","url_meta":{"origin":7310,"position":4},"title":"\u9ed1\u591c\u65cb\u5f8b – \u8b5a\u528d","author":"hevangel","date":"May 18, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u63a5\u89f8\u8b5a\u528d\u662f\u8b80\u4e2d\u5b78\u7684\u6642\u5019\ufe50\u90a3\u6642\u6211\u662f\u500b\u5341\u8db3\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u8ff7\u3002\u96d6\u6709\u73fe\u5728\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u79d1\u5e7b\u8ff7\ufe50\u4e0d\u904e\u751f\u6d3b\u592a\u5fd9\u6c92\u6709\u7a7a\u9918\u6642\u9593\u770b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e86\u3002\u6700\u521d\u53d7\u885b\u65af\u7406\u507d\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u555f\u8499\ufe50\u518d\u63a5\u89f8\u5f35\u7cfb\u570b\u7b49\u53f0\u7063\u79d1\u5e7b\u4f5c\u5bb6\u64f4\u95ca\u773c\u754c\ufe50\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u4e2d\u6587\u539f\u5275\u9084\u662f\u7ffb\u8b6f\u4f5c\u54c1\ufe50\u53ea\u8981\u5728\u5716\u66f8\u9928\u80fd\u5920\u501f\u5230\u7684\u4e5f\u6703\u770b\u3002\u6700\u795e\u5947\u662f\u79fb\u6c11\u4f86\u5230\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5f8c,\u5728\u516c\u5171\u5716\u66f8\u9928\u7adf\u7136\u6709\u8b5a\u528d\u7684\u5c0f\u8aaa\u3002\u9999\u6e2f\u571f\u7522\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4f5c\u5bb6\u5be5\u5be5\u53ef\u6578\ufe50\u4ed6\u7684\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7576\u7136\u4e0d\u80fd\u932f\u904e\u4e86\u3002\u5370\u8c61\u4e2d\u4ed6\u7684\u5c0f\u8aaa\u6211\u5168\u90e8\u770b\u904e\ufe50\u4e0d\u904e\u5167\u5bb9\u5df2\u5fd8\u8a18\u5f88\u4e00\u4e7e\u4e8c\u6de8\u3002\u5f8c\u4f86\u7db2\u8a8c\u8208\u8d77\ufe50\u7adf\u7136\u7d66\u6211\u9047\u5230\u8b5a\u528d\u7684\u7db2\u8a8c\ufe50\u767c\u73fe\u4ed6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\ufe50\u8208\u8da3\u548c\u55dc\u597d\u8207\u6211\u5f88\u76f8\u4f3c\ufe50\u4fbf\u8a02\u95b1\u4ed6\u7684\u7db2\u8a8c\u5b9a\u671f\u95b1\u8b80\ufe50\u9593\u4e2d\u7559\u8a00\u8207\u4ed6\u4ea4\u6d41\u610f\u898b\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u6211\u5006\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b97\u8a8d\u8b58\ufe50\u4f46\u6211\u5df2\u8996\u8b5a\u528d\u70ba\u6211\u5728\u7db2\u7d61\u4e0a\u795e\u4ea4\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u3002 \u4ed6\u653e\u4e0b\u7b46\u687f\u6c92\u5beb\u5c0f\u8aaa\u591a\u5e74\ufe50\u4eca\u5e74\u91cd\u65b0\u52d5\u7b46\u5beb\u6210\u9577\u7bc7\u5c0f\u8aaa\u300a\u9ed1\u591c\u5f8b\u65cb\u300b\ufe50\u53c3\u52a0\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u4e5d\u6b4c\u6587\u5b78\u734e\ufe50\u9084\u6253\u5165\u6700\u7d42\u56db\u5f37\u771f\u662f\u53ef\u559c\u53ef\u8cc0\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7db2\u8a8c\u6253\u5ee3\u544a\ufe50\u63a8\u4ecb\u9019\u672c\u69cb\u601d\u4e03\u5e74\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5de8\u8457\ufe50\u6211\u898b\u5167\u5bb9\u5438\u5f15\u4fbf\u5148\u8ce3\u56de\u4f86\ufe50\u4e0d\u904e\u5230\u6700\u8fd1\u624d\u6709\u7a7a\u95b1\u8b80\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4f5c\u5bb6\ufe50\u5beb\u4e00\u500b\u767c\u751f\u672a\u4f86\u4e16\u754c\u4ee5\u9999\u6e2f\u70ba\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\ufe50\u7adf\u7136\u8981\u8dd1\u5230\u8001\u9060\u53bb\u53f0\u7063\u51fa\u7248\ufe50\u9084\u8981\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u9999\u6e2f\u66f8\u5e97\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u5f97\u8ce3\ufe50\u771f\u662f\u4ee4\u4eba\u6709\u9ede\u6c23\u59a5\u3002\u662f\u5426\u9999\u6e2f\u4eba\u592a\u6025\u529f\u8fd1\u5229\u6dfa\u8584\u7121\u77e5\ufe50\u5e02\u5834\u5bb9\u4e0d\u4e0b\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7684\u60f3\u50cf\u7a7a\u9593\u3002 \u770b\u9019\u90e8\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e0d\u8981\u7d66\u66f8\u524d\u5169\u7bc7\u5e8f\u8a00\u5687\u5230\ufe50\u8aaa\u4ec0\u9ebc\u65cf\u5854\u5f0f\u548c\u8718\u86db\u7db2\u72c0\u7d50\u69cb\ufe50\u4e03\u5b97\u7f6a\u7684\u4e3b\u65e8\ufe50\u5c0d\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u6d6e\u9762\u8868\u50cf\u7b49\u7b49\ufe50\u82e5\u679c\u6211\u4e0d\u662f\u5c0d\u8b5a\u528d\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\ufe50\u65e9\u5df2\u7d66\u9019\u4e9b\u9ad8\u6df1\u552c\u4eba\u7684\u6587\u5b78\u8a5e\u5f59\u5687\u5f97\u68c4\u66f8\u800c\u9003\u3002\u5c0f\u8aaa\u7d50\u69cb\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e00\u822c\u5c0f\u8aaa\u8907\u96dc\ufe50\u4e03\u500b\u89d2\u8272\u4e03\u689d\u4e3b\u7dda\u5e73\u8861\u767c\u5c55\ufe50\u4e0d\u904e\u82e5\u679c\u770b\u6163\u7f8e\u5287\u6216\u65e5\u672c\u52d5\u756b\u7684\u670b\u53cb\ufe50\u8981\u8a18\u8457\u6bcf\u500b\u89d2\u8272\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u4e0d\u96e3\u3002\u5c0f\u8aaa\u80cc\u666f\u8a2d\u5b9a\u5728\u8fd1\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u9999\u6e2f\ufe50\u8b5a\u528d\u7528\u79d1\u6280\u4eba\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\ufe50\u53bb\u9810\u8a00\u65b0\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u767c\u5c55\ufe50\u6703\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u6211\u5011\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u3002\u9577\u9752\u4e0d\u8001\u7684\u7f8e\u5bb9\u7626\u8eab\u6280\u8853\ufe50\u7121\u5b54\u4e0d\u5165\u7684\u92b7\u552e\u624b\u6cd5\ufe50\u5168\u5929\u5019\u7db2\u7d61\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u611b\u60c5\u89c0\ufe50\u6210\u70ba\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\u4e03\u500b\u4e3b\u89d2\u7684\u821e\u53f0\u3002\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u4e3b\u89d2\u662f\u5e36\u6709\u4f60\u548c\u6211\u73fe\u4ee3\u4eba\u7684\u5f71\u5b50\ufe50\u672a\u4f86\u79d1\u6280\u653e\u5927\u6bcf\u7a2e\u4eba\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u500b\u6027\ufe50\u5207\u5408\u50b3\u7d71\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u767c\u554fwhat if\u7684\u5b97\u65e8\u3002\u8b93\u6211\u770b\u5f97\u6700\u904e\u766e\u662f\u8b5a\u528d\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u5f15\u7528\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u7d93\u5178\u6d41\u884c\u7b26\u865f\ufe50\u53ef\u80fd\u4ed6\u7684\u6210\u9577\u7d93\u6b77\u548c\u8208\u8da3\u90fd\u548c\u6211\u76f8\u4f3c\ufe50\u6211\u770b\u61c2\u66f8\u4e2d\u6bcf\u500b\u7b26\u865f\u7684\u610f\u7fa9\u5f88\u6709\u5171\u9cf4\u611f\u3002 \u539f\u672c\u6211\u5c0d\u6545\u4e8b\u5f88\u6709\u671f\u671b\ufe50\u4ee5\u70ba\u4e03\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u4e03\u500b\u6545\u4e8b\u6703\u6700\u5f8c\u805a\u982d\ufe50\u69cb\u6210\u7d50\u5c40\u51fa\u4eba\u610f\u8868\u7684\u6700\u7d42\u7ae0\u3002\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6211\u671f\u671b\u904e\u9ad8\ufe50\u9019\u672c\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u4e94\u500b\u77ed\u7bc7\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u96c6\u5408\ufe50\u6545\u4e8b\u525b\u597d\u767c\u751f\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u500b\u6642\u7a7a\ufe50\u800c\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u5076\u7136\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u6545\u4e8b\u5ba2\u4e32\u51fa\u5834\u77e3\u3002Medina\u548cSony\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u5beb\u5f97\u6700\u51fa\u8272\ufe50\u5206\u62c6\u51fa\u4f86\u6210\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u7368\u7acb\u77ed\u7bc7\ufe50\u7bc0\u594f\u660e\u5feb\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u597d\u770b\u3002\u96fb\u5f71\u7537\u548cAlexa\u662f\u53e6\u985e\u611b\u60c5\u5c0d\u5c0d\u78b0\ufe50\u8b5a\u528d\u628a\u73fe\u4ee3\u7684\u7db2\u7d61\u611b\u60c5\u904a\u6232\u73a9\u5f97\u5f88\u76e1\ufe50\u6709\u9ed1\u8272\u5e7d\u9ed8\u7684\u559c\u5287\u611f\u3002\u5948\u7f8e\u548c\u9ed1\u5e1d\u662f\u5169\u500b\u7368\u7acb\u6545\u4e8b\ufe50\u5206\u5225\u8b1b\u6e1b\u80a5\u548c\u904a\u6232\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u9b25\u722d\ufe50\u6700\u5f8c\u7d50\u5c40\u5f88\u6709\u8af7\u523a\u7684\u5473\u9053\u3002\u5c0f\u6797\u90a3\u689d\u7dda\u5beb\u5f97\u6700\u5dee\ufe50\u7d50\u5c40\u66f4\u662f\u5510\u7a81\u5f37\u5dee\u4eba\u610f\ufe50\u52c9\u5f37\u8aaa\u662f\u5c55\u8996\u672a\u4f86\u4e16\u754c\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u9738\u6b0a\u7684\u6a6b\u5207\u9762\ufe50\u6211\u5012\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u88ab\u6642\u4ee3\u6dd8\u6c70\u7684\u4eba\u5728\u767c\u7262\u9a37\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u5c0f\u6797\u4ee3\u8868\u8ffd\u4e0d\u4e0a\u79d1\u6280\u6b65\u4f10\u7684\u4eba\ufe50\u90a3\u4ed6\u5728\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\u5c0d\u793e\u6703\u7684\u53cd\u6297\ufe50\u66f4\u986f\u5f97\u4eba\u5728\u9762\u5c0d\u79d1\u6280\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u793e\u6703\u8f49\u8b8a\ufe50\u9664\u4e86\u64c1\u62b1\u79d1\u6280\u5411\u524d\u770b\u5916\u5225\u7121\u4ed6\u9014\u3002 \u300a\u9ed1\u591c\u5f8b\u65cb\u300b\u7684\u5b9a\u4f4d\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u54c1\ufe50\u53ef\u60dc\u5e8f\u8a00\u548c\u7c21\u4ecb\u5beb\u5f97\u592a\u8de8\u5f35\ufe50\u8b93\u8b80\u8005\u5c0d\u4f48\u5c40\u7522\u751f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u671f\u671b\ufe50\u8b80\u5230\u6700\u5f8c\u6709\u9ede\u82e5\u6709\u6240\u5931\u7684\u611f\u89ba\u3002\u7562\u7adf\u4e2d\u6587\u79d1\u5e7b\u4f5c\u8005\u4e0d\u591a\ufe50\u9999\u6e2f\u79d1\u5e7b\u4f5c\u8005\u66f4\u662f\u7f55\u6709\ufe50\u6211\u671f\u671b\u6709\u5929\u9999\u6e2f\u4f5c\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u5beb\u51fa\u4e16\u754c\u7d1a\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u3002\u5e0c\u671b\u8b5a\u528d\u4e0b\u672c\u8457\u4f5c\u65e9\u65e5\u9762\u4e16\ufe50\u4e0d\u8981\u8b93\u8b80\u8005\u518d\u7b49\u4e03\u516b\u5e74\u5427\u3002","rel":"","context":"In "\u66f8\u8a55"","block_context":{"text":"\u66f8\u8a55","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/resserverphp1.jpeg?fit=480%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3653,"url":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/2009\/11\/02\/the-logic-of-life-tim-harford\/","url_meta":{"origin":7310,"position":5},"title":"The Logic of Life – Tim Harford","author":"hevangel","date":"November 2, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"\u8aaa\u8d77\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u6703\u806f\u60f3\u8d77\u5831\u7ae0\u4e0a\u6c89\u60b6\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u5b57\ufe50\u53c8\u6216\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u53ea\u662f\u7092\u80a1\u7968\u8cfa\u9322\u7684\u5b78\u554f\u3002\u82e5\u79d1\u666e\u8b80\u7269\u5c07\u79d1\u5b78\u666e\u53ca\u5316\ufe50\u90a3\u7d93\u666e\u8b80\u7269\u4fbf\u662f\u5c07\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u666e\u53ca\u5316\ufe50\u7528\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u4e5f\u770b\u5f97\u61c2\u7684\u6587\u5b57\ufe50\u4ecb\u7d39\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u548c\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\ufe50\u8b93\u8b80\u8005\u9192\u5bdf\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8207\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u606f\u606f\u76f8\u95dc\u3002Tim Harford\u7684\u524d\u4f5c\u300c\u81e5\u5e95\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u300d\ufe50\u662f\u7c21\u6613\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5165\u9580\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u8ab2\ufe50\u65b0\u4f5c\u300c\u751f\u547d\u7684\u908f\u8f2f\u300d\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6df1\u5165\u6dfa\u51fa\u5730\u70ba\u8b80\u8005\u89e3\u91cb\u4f55\u8b02\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u548c\u5176\u529f\u7528\u3002 \u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u4e26\u4e0d\u6578\u5b57\u6216\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\ufe50\u751a\u81f3\u4ea6\u8207\u91d1\u9322\u6c92\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u662f\u89e3\u91cb\u4eba\u985e\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u5b78\u554f\ufe50\u5047\u5b9a\u4eba\u985e\u5927\u9ad4\u4e0a\u6309\u7406\u6027\u601d\u8003\ufe50\u4e26\u61c2\u5f97\u8a08\u7b97\u8861\u91cf\u5f97\u5931\u548c\u6210\u672c\ufe50\u5f9e\u800c\u63a8\u8ad6\u51fa\u4eba\u985e\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u548c\u5176\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e00\u7ae0\u4e5f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u73fe\u50cf\ufe50\u62bd\u7d72\u525d\u7e6d\u5730\u7528\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\ufe50\u8b93\u8b80\u8005\u660e\u767d\u8868\u9762\u770b\u4f3c\u6beb\u7121\u9053\u7406\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\ufe50\u539f\u4f86\u80cc\u5f8c\u4e5f\u662f\u8ddf\u96a8\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u5b9a\u5f8b\u904b\u884c\u3002 \u611b\u6ecb\u75c5\u6a6b\u884c\u5c0e\u81f3\u9752\u5c11\u5e74\u53e3\u4ea4\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u535a\u58eb\u7528\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\ufe50\u596a\u53d6\u4e16\u754c\u6a38\u514b\u51a0\u8ecd\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u7e3d\u88c1\u7121\u751a\u4f5c\u70ba\u537b\u6536\u53d6\u5929\u50f9\u85aa\u916c\u3002\u79df\u5c4b\u6a13\u5b87\u5730\u5340\u6bd4\u81ea\u7f6e\u7269\u696d\u5730\u5340\ufe50\u6cbb\u5b89\u548c\u793e\u6703\u8a2d\u65bd\u8f03\u5dee\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u88ab\u5c0f\u6578\u5229\u76ca\u5718\u9ad4\u9a0e\u52ab\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u751a\u81f3\u9023\u7a2e\u65cf\u6b67\u8996\u548c\u6b96\u6c11\u7d71\u6cbb\u9019\u4e9b\u4e0d\u516c\u7fa9\u7684\u793e\u6703\u73fe\u3002\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u4e0b\u539f\u4f86\u4e5f\u6709\u5408\u7406\u7684\u89e3\u91cb\u3002\u8981\u6539\u8b8a\u73fe\u72c0\u5148\u8981\u660e\u767d\u6210\u56e0\u624d\u80fd\u5c0d\u75c5\u4e0b\u85e5\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u4e0d\u7406\u89e3\u6e05\u695a\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\ufe50\u80e1\u4e82\u51fa\u65bc\u597d\u610f\u4e82\u6295\u85e5\u77f3\ufe50\u6050\u6015\u53ea\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u59cb\u6599\u4e0d\u53ca\u7684\u66f4\u58de\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002 \u4f8b\u5982\u7a2e\u65cf\u6b67\u8996\u6e90\u65bc\u5fae\u5c0f\u7121\u610f\u8b58\u7684\u500b\u4eba\u504f\u597d\ufe50\u56e0\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b9a\u5f8b\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u88ab\u653e\u5927\u800c\u9677\u5165\u60e1\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u6307\u51fa\u53ea\u9700\u5728\u8d77\u6e90\u8655\u4f5c\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\ufe50\u4fbf\u6703\u5f97\u51fa\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u6700\u5be6\u7528\u662f\u535a\u5955\u7406\u8ad6\u73a9\u6a38\u514b\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\ufe50\u4ee5\u524d\u6211\u73a9\u6a38\u514b\u8f38\u591a\u8d0f\u5c11\ufe50\u4e0d\u904e\u5b78\u61c2\u5229\u7528\u7d0d\u6b8a\u5e73\u8861\u4f86\u4e0b\u6ce8\ufe50\u4e0d\u53d7\u5c0d\u624b\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u7b56\u7565\u5f71\u97ff\ufe50\u6e1b\u4f4e\u5728\u724c\u5c40\u4e2d\u72af\u932f\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\ufe50\u4e0d\u6c42\u4e00\u8216\u5927\u52dd\u800c\u628a\u6bcf\u5c40\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u512a\u52e2\u7684\u7a4d\u5c11\u6210\u591a\ufe50\u6162\u6162\u9010\u5c11\u9010\u5c11\u5730\u8d0f\u9322\u3002 \u4f5c\u8005\u662f\u500b\u8aaa\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u80fd\u624b\ufe50\u4e0d\u77e5\u4e0d\u89ba\u9593\u4fbf\u8f15\u8f15\u9b06\u9b06\u8b80\u5b8c\u6574\u672c\u66f8\u3002\u770b\u8457\u4f5c\u8005\u89e3\u6c7a\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u554f\u984c\u8da3\u5473\u6a6b\u6ea2\ufe50\u4e0d\u904e\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u89e3\u91cb\u904e\u4efd\u7c21\u5316\ufe50\u53ea\u8aaa\u660e\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u7565\u53bb\u5168\u90e8\u6578\u64da\u3002\u95b1\u8b80\u6642\u770b\u4f3c\u8a00\u4e4b\u6210\u7406\ufe50\u4f46\u7d30\u60f3\u4e0b\u4f86\u90a3\u4e9b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u63a8\u8ad6\ufe50\u6709\u9ede\u592a\u904e\u4e00\u5ec2\u60c5\u9858\u60f3\u7576\u7136\u77e3\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u9019\u985e\u7d93\u666e\u8b80\u7269\u8981\u7167\u9867\u8b80\u8005\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u53ef\u8b80\u6027\ufe50\u4e0d\u80fd\u5920\u8a73\u7d30\u4f8b\u51fa\u6578\u64da\u548c\u63a8\u8ad6\ufe50\u5e78\u597d\u66f8\u5f8c\u4f8b\u51fa\u6240\u6709\u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599\ufe50\u8b93\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u8b80\u8005\u53bb\u81ea\u884c\u5f15\u8b49\u3002 \u82e5\u679c\u6211\u5011\u5728\u8a0e\u8ad6\u793e\u6703\u554f\u984c\u6642\ufe50\u80fd\u5920\u7528\u904b\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u65b9\u6cd5\ufe50\u5c0b\u627e\u5ba2\u89c0\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\u89e3\u91cb\ufe50\u76f8\u4fe1\u53ef\u4ee5\u8b93\u793e\u6703\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u7f8e\u597d\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u4e0d\u8ad6\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u89e3\u91cb\u5982\u4f55\u5145\u4efd\ufe50\u9084\u4e0d\u80fd\u5920\u8aaa\u670d\u7acb\u5834\u5148\u65bc\u9053\u7406\u7684\u5c0d\u624b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5b97\u6559\u4eba\u58eb\u8a8d\u5b9a\u9752\u5c11\u5e74\u53e3\u4ea4\u4e0a\u5347\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u9053\u5fb7\u8150\u6557\ufe50\u5e73\u6b0a\u4eba\u58eb\u8a8d\u5b9a\u7a2e\u65cf\u6b67\u8996\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u767d\u4eba\u6c99\u6587\u4e3b\u7fa9\ufe50\u5118\u7ba1\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u63d0\u4f9b\u89e3\u91cb\u4e4b\u9918\u4e5f\u6709\u6539\u8b8a\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\ufe50\u4ed6\u5011\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u80fd\u5920\u865b\u5fc3\u63a5\u53d7\u3002\u9019\u8b93\u6211\u60f3\u8d77\u9999\u6e2f\u722d\u53d6\u6700\u4f4e\u5de5\u8cc7\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\ufe50\u4ed6\u5011\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u9075\u5b88\u7406\u6027\u7684\u6307\u5f15\ufe50\u5148\u5f9e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u53bb\u7406\u89e3\u4ed6\u5011\u60f3\u8981\u89e3\u6c7a\u7684\u554f\u984c\u5462\u3002","rel":"","context":"In "\u66f8\u8a55"","block_context":{"text":"\u66f8\u8a55","link":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/category\/_books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/10\/87147.jpg?fit=500%2C789&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7310","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7310"}],"version-history":[{"count":88,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7310\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9699,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7310\/revisions\/9699"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7320"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7310"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7310"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.horace.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}