Yearly Archives: 2010

Daily Scribble

Democracy vs Republic

Leave a comment

This Youtube video illustrates the difference between all forms of governments and try to correct many people’s misunderstand on democracy. The form of government is scaled from absolute power on the left to no power on the right. They are dictatorship, oligarchy, democracy, republic and anarchy.

There is not true dictatorship. No government can be ruled by one man. The dictator is just the face of a group of rulers. There is no true anarchy, since it is not a stable form of government. It is merely a transition to oligarchy. Oligarchy is ruled by a group of people. Democracy means majority rules. Republic is rules of law. Democracy is only a transition between oligarchy and republic. I wonder when HK people petition for democracy, do they really understand what they are asking for? I think HK need a republic government, democracy is not the end goal, it is just a begining.

書評

Fooled by Randomness – Nassim Nicholas Talech

2 Comments

去年金融海嘯華爾街投資銀行傷亡慘重﹐可是卻捧紅了「黑天鵝理論」這本書和其作者Nassim Nicholas Talech。此君投資眼光獨到甚有遠見﹐在一眾基金經理還沉醉在經濟沫的時候﹐他已經預言金融海嘯無可避免﹐來臨只是遲早的問題。金融海嘯令不少投資者一舖清袋﹐他的基金卻逆市狂賺一百二十億。Talech並非普通的華爾街基金經理﹐除了管理基金外﹐他還在大學當哲學教授﹐研究隨機率的認知論。

「黑天鵝理論」因為金融海嘯被受追捧﹐財經界人手一本在閱讀惡補。其實「黑天鵝理論」不過是在重覆他舊作Fooled by Randomness的內容。這本書早在「黑天鵝理論」登上暢銷書排行榜前﹐已被譽為華爾街奇書﹐自組成cult有一群忠實追隨者。這本書中文譯作「隨機致富的傻瓜」﹐不過我認為中文名稱譯很差﹐完全偏離了該書的原意﹐因為這本書根本和致富無關。這本書的主旨很簡單﹐一句說話可以說完﹐但同時亦挑戰大部份人的世界觀。人們以為成功全因一己努力或眼光﹐看不清楚自己命運的背後﹐往往受到隨機事件擺佈的事實。

這本書嚴格來說可以歸類為哲學書藉﹐作者通過他們華爾街打滾多年的經驗﹐輔以人類學和心理學的理論﹐說出人類腦袋總是不理解隨機率的事實。人類總是以為因果有既定關係﹐甚至自己把虛線連結﹐把沒有關係的東西憑空想像出關係。這本書分為三個部份﹐第一個部先說服讀者隨機率無處不在。在市場上很多基金經理看似很成功﹐他們以為自己投資眼光過人﹐其實他們只不過是運氣好。他們不明的隨機率﹐無視那個很細微﹐但足以令他們傾家蕩產的黑天鵝風險。在生存者偏見下(survivor bias)﹐他們看似年年賺錢﹐不過亦可以一舖輸清光。用廣東話彥語說﹐他們在玩「贏粒糖﹐輸間廠」的高風險遊戲。

第二部份作者從認知論的角度﹐去解釋隨機率是什麼﹐為什麼大部份人也掌握不到。作者引用哲學家Popper和Hume的理論﹐推翻所有金融工具的意義﹐那些全不過是在築沙子上的玩意﹐完全不能代表現實世界。書中嘗試解釋人類為什麼總是受隨機率的迷惑﹐非要找出某種因果關係才心安理得。以前我總是想不通﹐那些分析每天市場上落的財經分析員﹐到底如何知道某件新聞或公佈數據與市場上落幾十點的關係。看完此書後﹐我更加肯定那些財經分析員只不過是隨口亂說。市場每天幾個百份點的上落﹐不過是市場的雜音﹐沒有任何市場資訊﹐亦與新聞沒有任何關係。單天上落的數據不能告訴我們什麼﹐重要的是要分析趨勢。很人誤以為能夠預測等同能夠控制﹐可是預測沒有百份百的準確。若只按照預測去計劃﹐出現在控制以外的情況時﹐便會成為黑天鵝大災難。

第三部是隨機率的人生哲理﹐作者總結他的人生智慧﹐談論我們應該如何面對這個充滿隨機性的世界。結果非我們可以決定﹐但我們可以決定自己的態度。成功一定要靠運氣﹐但我們不知道運氣何時會來﹐若沒有充份的準備﹐便不能捕捉運氣來臨的一刻。明白因果關係並非必然後﹐我們要學懂抽象思考去作風險管理﹐要保障黑天鵝災難發生時的逃生門。當聽到別人說﹐這件事在歷史上從沒發生過﹐便要小心了。因為所有黑天鵝災難在發生之前﹐也是在歷史上從沒發生過。只要有可能發生的話﹐便一定遲早會發生﹐還未發生過只是時間的問題。我們要學習把隨機率應用在日常生活中﹐不要凡事也以為可以追求最大化﹐隨機率讓我們滿足既成事實的結果﹐生活要留有無法預知的空間才會快樂。

可能我當年讀碩士時﹐研究課題與隨機率有關﹐曾痛下苦功學習隨機率﹐隨機率早己融入我的思維模式﹐我覺得這本書的內容很理所當然。對於隨機率認識不深的讀者﹐這書不停衡擊讀者的固有思維﹐挑戰和覆顛讀者的世界觀。若只看介簡或撮要﹐這書的內容聽起來很玄,讀者要自己仔細讀閱咀嚼﹐才能領悟書中的道理。

Daily Scribble

Fail toys

1 Comment

Every kids love toys. Now after I have grown up, the little kid inside me still love toys. Yet there are some toys are failed so badly that they become classics. I stumble upon Mike Mozart’s show on Youtube and I spent 2 hours watching every clips of the show. It’s just so funny that I couldn’t stop laughing. Sometimes, I wonder what’s in the mind of those toy designers. Do they did it on purpose or it merely an accident? Here are some of my most favorite failed toys.

Pooping Dog Barbie

Wolverine Inflatable Hammer

Disney Rad Repeating Tarzan

Batman water gun

Daily Scribble

Woodworking 101

3 Comments

I am taking woodworking for beginner at Vancouver School Board. Today is the first day of eight lessons. At the end of the lessons, I will build a small table with a drawer. Before today’s class, I always thought how can can woodworking be? It seems quite easy to buy some piece of wood, cut them to the right size and then screw them together. I totally underestimate the depth of knowledge involved in woodworking. Even I don’t care about workmanship, decoration, artistic design and all those useless subjective aspects, there are still lots of thing I need to know in order to build a functional and sturdy table.

The first class covers some basic workshop safety, required by the school board for using the workshop. Then the instructor spent almost an hour teaching us different kinds of wood. I just realize soft wood is not always soft and hard wood is not always hard. Soft wood refers to wood from evergreen tree and hard wood refers to wood from deciduous trees. I saw many wood samples from pine, fir, spruce, cherry, to maple, birch, alder to oak, walnut and teak. I get a general understanding on how to pick good wood and why the good wood worth the more expensive price tag. I learn the difference between vertical cut and flat cut, rough lumber and finished lumber, construction grade and trim grade. I also learned that a 2×4 is not really 2″ by 4″, it only got 1.5″ x 3.5″.

The instructor shows us how to use the machines in the second half of the class. It is the first time I operate a sliding saw and cut my first piece of wood. Safety is very important in working with power tools. Always pay attention where your hands are and stay away from any moving parts. You don’t want to lose your fingers. I learned how to use mitre saws, table saws, jointer, planner and difference kinds of blades. I also learn three ways of making a join, pocket hole, dowel and biscuit. Too bad that the class is only 3 hours long, the instructor did not have time show us all the power tools. We will learn routers, other drills and saws in the advance class.

The instructor is very nice, he will take us out on a field trip to buy wood this Sunday. I still haven’t decide what kind of wood I want to use. I want to use the cheaper pine if I screw up my table or I can use a better looking cherry or birch if I want to display my work in the living room. Buying wood is not cheap, the material cost of the table is at least $50, it may be over $100 if I go for expensive wood like walnut or oak. Buying a MDF table from IKEA is cheaper than building your once.

I am looking forward to next class. Woodworking is quite rewarding since you can see your production born from nothing other than a pile of wood. I think all men should know some basic woodworking skill. Woodworking is a very manly activity You are not man enough if you don’t know how to work with wood.