Fantasy hockey 2008

Every year, we have a fantasy hockey pool at work.  Last year, I use pure statistic to select my players and I end up having the lowest score.  I guess performance of hockey players just like stocks, past result does not always imply future growth.  Some of my friends really into hockey.  They are a walking hockey database.  Not only that they know all the players and their teams by heart, they also keep track of who is injured, who has been traded or even who had just become a dad.  Crying baby at night probably affect the game performance.  I believe they hockey knowledge give them an advantage in the hockey pool.  Anyways, I am too busy and lazy to do my own research, so I end up using statistic again this year.  It is much easier to look at numbers than find out everything about the players from sports news website.  Here is my team this year:

Henrik Zetterberg (Det – F)
Ryan Getzlaf (Anh – F)
Olli Jokinen (Pho – F)
Shane Doan (Pho – F)
Rick Nash (Cls – F)
Alexander Frolov (LA – F)
Nathan Horton (Fla – F)
Patrick Marleau (SJ – F)
Mark Streit (NYI – D)
Lubomir Visnovsky (Edm – D)
Jay Bouwmeester (Fla – D)
Bryan McCabe (Fla – D)
Henrik Lundqvist (NYR – G)
Marc-Andre Fleury (Pit – G)

This time we are more prepared than last year when we are drafting the players.  All of us bring our laptop to search the players on line when it is our turn to pick the player.  We have 9 teams in total, it took us almost 1.5 hours to finish the drafting.  The hockey season is starting this week, following our fantasy hockey team and bragging on who is winning would be a regular feature in our lunch coversations.

最低工資的爭論(四) – 最低工資與經濟理論並沒有衡突

這個星期在獨媒和基文會花了很多時間討論最低工資的問題﹐除了迫自己思考這個觸動社會神經的問題外﹐還學懂了不少經濟學的基本知識。要思考要記錄下來的已差不多寫完﹐我認為最低工資的問題已經有很明確的答案。剩下來要做的事情﹐只是指出其他人錯誤﹐改正他們在理論上或數字計算上的問題。反對最低工資的人﹐常常引用經濟學理論﹐去證明最低工資會引失業率上升。支持最低工資的人﹐雖然沒有什麼嚴緊的推理﹐但是憑直覺認為最低工資可以幫助窮人。我在尋找最低工資的研究時﹐發現了經濟學人的這份報告﹐可以整合正反雙方的論點﹐原來兩者其實係沒有衡突的。

Quote from The Economist Feb 1st 2001 “Debating the Minimum Wage”
that the minimum-wage increase left the overall number of workers employed roughly the same, but reduced their hours. (Not implausible, given that most workers in the fast-food business are part-timers.) Then it would be true that the wage rise reduced the demand for (hours of) labour, as the standard model says; but at the same time it could also be true, as advocates of the minimum wage say, that the incomes of the affected workers went up, thanks to the combination of fewer hours at work and the higher wage rate. In which case the policy could be judged a success, even though it had “reduced employment”.

簡單來說﹐最低工資的結果﹐將會是工資上升﹐工時需求下降﹐但就業人數大致不變。經濟理論指出工資上升﹐工作的需求會下降﹐只不過下降的不是工人需求的數目﹐而是工時需求的數目。 換一句話說﹐最低工資逼工人增加工作效率﹐去補償工資上升帶來的開支。不論是最低工資的支持者還是反對者﹐大家圍著就業人數這個數字原地打轉。工作需求除了可以用人頭來計數﹐還可以有其他的計算方法﹐如工時需求啊﹗

Packing toys: before and after

This is how my Macross collection looks like in display.

Before

This is how it looks like after 12 hours of packing.

Macross Box 1 Macross box 2

Why do people collection stuffs?

I am moving soon, so I have to start packing my stuff.  Today, I spend whole day putting my toys back into their boxes.  I have already spent a day last week and I guess I may need another day.  I know I have lots of toys, but I still surprise by how many boxes I have.  People love to collect things, just like I like to collect toys.  I have been thinking about why people do collect things for quite some time, but I fail to come up with any good explanation.  Collections are not investments, most of time your collection are just old junks to other people.  Collections are not something you can use daily, they just sit there doing nothing.  Collection suppose to bring you joy, but you only need to have a few to experience the joy.  There is something special about the shear size of the collection.  When I am admiring my fleet of Valkyrie and armies of Gundam, I have a sense of satisfaction.  Where this sense of satisfaction comes from, I have no idea.  It doesn’t make any logical sense to feel happy about something that has no objective value, can’t be used and pretty much just various duplication of one another.

最低工資的爭論(三) – 最低工資的矛盾

上兩篇文章用經濟學說最低工資﹐最後這篇我打算換個角度﹐討論最低工資在理論上的問題。經濟學我是門外漢﹐但好歹也算是半個哲學生。這次我跳出經濟學的層面﹐檢視最低工資背後政治理念的否合理。最低工資的支持者﹐大多數是左傾政治思想的信徒﹐他們認為工人收入低於生活所需﹐受到無良顧主剝削﹐造成社會不公平﹐最低工資可以為貧窮劃上句號。哲學講求邏輯理性﹐每個用詞也清楚介定﹐才能夠得出合理有意義的結論。若果推論不合邏輯﹐言詞含混有誤導成份﹐就只是口號式的廢話。

右派與左派的政治思想﹐其中一個最大的分別﹐是在於如何去介定何謂公平。究竟生產力高收入高是公平﹐還是人人收入均等才叫公平呢。最低工資支持者認為﹐工人收入低就是不公平。可是若果有最低工資﹐工人生產力多寡與收入脫勾﹐這又是否公平呢。有些工作的薪金過低是事實﹐可是這些工作可能真的生產力很低﹐低到不足以抵消工人的生活開支。工作時間長甚至勤力﹐並不等同生產力﹐生產出來的商品或服務不一定有人要﹐若有人要也不一定買到出足夠生活的金錢。試想象一個古代的農村經濟﹐有些農夫生產很多糧食﹐可以有多餘的糧食去和其他人交換物件。可是有些農夫生產糧食很少﹐有時連自己也餵不飽﹐那個農夫要挨餓又是否不公平。還是有多餘糧食的農夫﹐要無條件去餵飽其他吃不飽的農夫才叫公平。當然站在人道立場﹐我們也不希望見到其他人挨餓﹐把自己多餘的分給別人﹐只是這叫作善心而不是叫公平。

有些最低工資支持者會說﹐工人要賺到足夠基本生活需要的人工才算公平。好吧﹐讓先假設我們接受這個公平的定義﹐看看會申引出什麼問題。最低工資支持者看來忘記了一點﹐失業工人和領綜援的人也是人﹐若果工人要有足夠基本生活需要的才算公平﹐言下之意是否沒有工作的人就不需要基本生活需要。這算不算歧視沒有工作比低收入工人更貧窮的那群人﹐不用理會他們的基本生活需要﹐任由他們餓死呢。好吧﹐讓他們修改公平的定義﹐改為每個人也要有足夠基本生活需要的入息才算公平。用這個新的公平定義沒有雙重標準﹐不過又會帶出另一個更嚴重的問題。若最低工資等於基本生活需要的話﹐綜援金額也要增加至最低工資的水平﹐才算付合公平的原則。咦~ 最低工資等於綜援金額﹐做又三十六﹐唔做又三十六﹐白痴也看到有問題。唯一可能的解釋﹐就是最低工資支持者說謊﹐最低工資其實比基本生活需要為高。至於最低工資能否為貧窮劃上句號﹐大慨只有全部人有工做﹐零失業率的情況下才做到﹐基本上即是沒有可能發生。說最低工資可以為貧窮劃上句號﹐又算不算是跨大效益﹐刻意誤導市民呢﹖

人類是理性動物﹐為自己爭取最大利益無可厚非。在最低工資有人工加的基層是直接受益者﹐他們支持最低工資不難理解﹐天下間那有不想加人工的打工仔。另一邊廂請工人的老闆反對最低工資也很正常﹐那有老闆會想成本上漲影響生意。可是有些最低工資的支持者﹐基本上他們人工高加薪沒有份﹐他們支持最低工資的理由就很令人費解。若他們以為最低工資的成本全數由老闆支付﹐他們未免太過天真﹐簡直是向老闆與虎謀皮。若他們明知最低工資會導致消費開支增加﹐那麼支持最低工資豈不是與自己荷包作對。 或許他們有些人特別有正義感﹐認為工人有公平的收入比商品服務便宜重要。若他們真的這麼想﹐認為工人薪金過低工不合理﹐他們不用等最低工資立法﹐他們在購物或使用服務時﹐大可以給服務員大額小費﹐彌補市場價格與他們心中認為公平人工的差額﹐用實際行動去支持最低工資。可是綜觀支持最低工資的人﹐看不到有人主動支付差額的小費﹐莫非他們在講一套做一套﹐到真正付鈔時就打鼓退堂的偽善者﹖

怪不得最低工資的支持者口號叫得漂亮﹐卻找不到什麼合理的理由﹐去推翻反對最低工資者的質疑。支持者可以完全無視最低工資理論內的重重矛盾﹐非理性地盲目支持﹐要與他們說道理分析最低工資的利弊﹐大慨比說服老闆接受最低工資還困難。