Blink – Malcolm Gladwell

Blink 若要找一個詞語來形容Malcolm Galdwell﹐我想最適合的詞語大慨是一代宗師(Guru)。他只出版過兩本薄薄的小書﹐但他為社會帶來革新性的影響﹐被時代週刊選為全球百大最有影響力人物之一。我讀完他的第一本著作Tipping Point後﹐原本認為他有點名過其實。畢竟那是幾年前的舊作﹐當年有見地的新思想﹐在今天只不過是常識﹐令我感受不到他想思的振撼力。可是當我拜讀過他網站上紐約客的文章﹐我對他刮目相看印象完全改觀。他不光靠兩本流行讀物吃老本撈名氣﹐而是一個真材實料的學者﹐為社會帶來全新思維模式的先知。這次我拿起Blink來閱讀時﹐與抱著半信半疑地閱讀Tipping Point的心態大不同﹐我懷著尊敬的心去欣賞偉大思想家的重要著作。不單吸收作者書中的思想內容﹐還學習他小故事配合科學理論的寫作風格﹐好讓我拉車邊沾點他說話的感染力。

Blink這書探討人類瞬間思考力的問題。很多時候我們會花很多時間思考一個問題﹐可是做出決定卻只是瞬間的事情。有些專家可以用瞬間思考力﹐得出來的答案比整隊人化三個月時間研究還準確。很多時候這個瞬間思考力被認為是第六感﹐擁有這個能力的人答不出憑什得出這樣的答案﹐沒有詳細的推論也沒有數據支持﹐答案好像一瞬間從腦中忽然冒出來一樣。作者引用切片理論(Thin slicing)去解釋瞬間思考力從何而來。專過長年累月經驗告訴他們﹐如可在極短時間內﹐在大量的數據中﹐找出關鍵的那一小薄片數據。這個思考過程是腦子的潛意識反應﹐像運動員不需思考﹐就可以揮拍迎擊飛來的球一樣。

當然瞬間思考也有誤導我們的時候﹐沒有受過長時間訓練的人﹐他們瞬間思考與瞎猜無異。最特別的是這個瞬間思考力﹐是會受到潛意識的影響。一些看似與要考慮的問題沒有關係的雜念﹐不單會影響瞬間思考的正確性﹐甚至會把答案引導上錯誤的方向。作者引用美軍中情局的模疑軍事演習﹐和芝加哥急症室的醫生斷症作為例子﹐指出過量的資訊有決策明顯的害處。要善用瞬間思考力﹐就需要過濾無用資訊的雜音。

要知道那些資訊有用﹐那些無用是一門大學問。作者在這章引用著名的百事口味大挑戰作為例子﹐亦解答了我這個可口可樂忠實擁躉多年的疑團。話說當年百事可樂的口味大挑戰﹐倒兩杯蒙著牌子可樂給受訪者試飲﹐大部份人也喜歡百事多於可口可樂。原本這只不過是百事的廣告策略﹐但在可口可樂私下進行的口味測試中﹐受訪者也是多數喜歡百事。於是可口可樂推出改良口味的新可樂應戰﹐新可樂的下場如何大家也記得﹐最後這一役成為商管課本中的典經失敗例子。只是百事可樂真的比可口可樂好飲嗎﹖原來答案在於試飲的設計上﹐試飲只給受訪者飲一小杯可樂﹐對於味道較甜的百事有優勢。但是現實中沒有人只喝一口汽水﹐一飲就是飲一整罐。由於百事偏甜﹐飲完整罐後的殘留在口腔感覺﹐並不如可口可樂般好飲。作者最後用警察和管弦樂團的例子﹐指出防止作出錯誤決定的最佳的辨法﹐就是防止我們置身於錯誤的資訊中。

這本二百多頁的小書﹐我只用了兩程短途機的時間就看完了。通常大部份人看書會略過注釋不理﹐不幸地我在飛行半途中剛好看完全書。反正左右也沒事幹﹐便把書後附錄的注釋也仔細閱讀。書中作者隨便引用了很多故事﹐乍聽起來那些故事像是道聽途說﹐與本書學術性的主題關係不太。可是在注釋中我發現﹐書中的每個故事也是有根有據﹐全部引用自學術期刊發表的論文或是專門的學術書藉。書中講道理看似在輕鬆地說故事﹐那其實並不是作者無料吹水﹐而是作者文筆功力深厚﹐把艱深難啃的學術知識消化﹐再化成淺白文字讓讀者容易理解﹐作者現代賢者的稱號絕對並非浪得虛名。

Engaged

I would like to announce to all my good friends that I am now official engaged.  My days of being single is numbered, I am moving on to the next stage of life.  The date of my big day is not yet confirmed.  It depends on the availability of the church, the booking of the restaurant for banquet at night and fortune of day in the Chinese calender.  In Chinese calender, each day is categorized being good for certain events and being bad for some other events.  The pattern of the good days and bad days are pretty random, I wonder how the good day / bad day is determined.  The calender publisher must use some kind of ancient equation.  Today is already in the 21st century, this good day /bad day scheme sounds so superstitious to me, yet the older generation still follows this non-sense rule in the Calendar fortune telling book.

Maybe I should revise that ancient equation to make it suits better of modern civilized way of living.  Then I will publish a new Chinese calender with my new good day / bad day scheme, so setting a day will be much more convenient.  Every weekend is a good day for getting marry.  Every weekday is a good day for opening business.  The scheme should take public holidays and season patterns into accounts.  For example, Christmas day is a bad day for wedding, since your guest will be busy for their own holidays and probably you can not book any church for the ceremony.  Of course, I will steer the good days away from the traditional bad days that everyone knows, like the ghost festival.  Other than those few obvious bad days, who can tell scientifically the difference in effectiveness between my calendar from the old one?

熱氣球

自從上次女朋友說過想乘坐熱氣球﹐我就計劃給她送上這份驚喜。原定週未才飛﹐時間比較鬆動﹐可是天氣預測說會下雨﹐只好趁好天氣放工去升空。通常熱 氣球只會在黃昏前的時段載客升空﹐下午太陽猛烈加熱地面的空氣﹐地面與天空的溫差大形成氣流﹐飛行時氣球會很顛頗擺動得很勵害﹐不適合體驗飛行樂趣的觀光 搭客。今天下午特別提早放工﹐接了女朋友就駕車往離溫市一小時的小鎮。途中女朋友不停問我帶她去那兒﹐我說是神秘驚喜不回答她﹐她想破腦袋也估不中﹐還以 為我賣她去鄉下。

集合地點是小鎮的飛機場﹐泊好車在會合其他搭客﹐聽過安全指示﹐簽了生死狀後﹐就坐小巴前往起飛地點。原定飛行路線是在上風處十幾公里外的農地起飛 ﹐順著氣流在空中漂浮返回飛機場降落﹐全程約需個多小時。熱氣球的飛行原理很簡單﹐熱空氣的密度比冷空氣低﹐所以氣球就會浮起來。氣球底下吊落我們坐的籃 子﹐籃子中儲有數樽天然氣﹐用來點火把氣球加熱﹐機師不停開關點火來控制氣球的高度。我們乘坐的氣球十分巨形﹐充氣後有十多層樓那樣高﹐單是充氣也用了半 小時。

balloon 1 未充氣的氣球躺在地上

balloon 2 點火把氣球充氣

balloon 3 充氣後的氣球

balloon 4 七彩賓紛的氣球內部

在熱空氣注滿氣球後﹐我們慢慢漂浮升空﹐順著風勢飛行。坐熱氣球十分平穩舒適﹐沒有搭飛機起飛時的加速壓力。唯一有點不習慣地方﹐就是每隔十數秒機 師就會點火一會﹐火舌飈進氣球內高達幾米﹐噴火機很嘈吵﹐頭頂也感覺到陣陣熱力。平常坐飛機給關在機艙內﹐只能隔著細小的窗觀看機外的景色。坐熱氣球則擁 有三百六十度無敵全景﹐乘客與下面的世界沒有任何隔離。府身往吊籃外看﹐腳下離地千米﹐沒有任何支撐﹐不禁有一點兒心驚﹐害怕鬆手相機掉下去。從天空往下向﹐我們看到連綿的農地﹐與相隔農地的樹林﹐也看到成群在放牧的牛馬。向西方遠眺﹐在落日的襯托下﹐可以看見溫哥華市中心的高樓。快要降落低空飛越住宅區時﹐還可以看見下面的人向我們友善地揮手呢。

balloon 5 從高空看熱氣球的倒影

balloon 6 農地與樹林

balloon 7 鄉郊小鎮的住宅區

balloon 7 公路上的汽車小如玩具

balloon 8 原定降落地點的機場

在輕鬆愉快的心情下﹐不知不覺已飛行了一小時﹐快要到原定降落地點。可惜今天風勢不穩定﹐我們偏離原來的航線。機師改為在機場附近的空地降落﹐下降途中忽然一陣強風把氣球加速﹐讓我們險些撞上空地後面的樹林。機師在最後關頭放棄降落﹐點火把氣球升回安全高度。我們只好飛遠好幾公里到友好農場再次嘗試降落。氣球降落時我們不許拍照﹐雙手要捉緊吊籃的扶手﹐以免掉出氣球外。在著陸的那一剎有點震蕩﹐氣球還彈跳幾下才停頓下來﹐也有一點兒的驚險刺激。從氣球出來後﹐我們走了整公里深長及膝的草地﹐才到達接送我們回機場的小巴。在飛機場﹐熱氣球公司為我們準備了香檳慶祝歸來﹐還派發每人一張證明了乘坐過氣球的證書。乘坐熱氣球是一個難忘的經驗﹐有機會的話也一定要試試﹐在天空在無苟無束地漂浮﹐享受這自由自在的美妙感覺。

balloon 9 熱氣球功成身退放氣

燈光不是污染

earth night map

電燈是廿十世紀的最偉大發明﹐它照亮著人類的文化。讓人類征服黑暗﹐不用再依靠日光﹐脫離日出而作﹐日入而息的原始生活。我們終於可以取回屬於我們時間主權﹐晚間不用給無盡的黑夜支配。燈光是人類文明誌標﹐也是一個城市繁榮的象徵。從太空中回看地球﹐看到陸地上一個一個的光點﹐見證著人類進化的歷史。人類擁有自己光源﹐社會才能夠更有效率地運作﹐人們可以繼續辛勤地工作﹐也可以外出娛樂玩耍﹐晚上不用再無所事事。現代的城市二十四小時全天候運作﹐把黑夜照量得象白天一樣。地球不是平的﹐與其他地方工作有時差﹐朝九晚五不再是必然的上班規律。再者讓大量社會資源在晚上丟空﹐也是一種浪費﹐不若物盡其用﹐把黑夜變為過去的名詞。把黑夜照亮成為白天﹐不單只方便人們生活﹐更改善可以城市的治安。美國紐約八十年代罪惡橫行﹐市長朱尼安尼上任決心要整頓市容﹐他的其中一項措施就是改善晚間照明。今天大蘋果是美國治安的典範﹐也是一座繁華美麗的不夜城。

可惜一些環保人士﹐不能與時並進﹐反行文明之道﹐宣揚光害污染的歪理。他們認為大城市的燈光污染黑夜﹐五光十色的燈火取代點點星空﹐光線更加會影響大自然的生態環境。他們要在大城市到看星空的訴求﹐就如暴發戶旅客要在鄉間小鎮找大商場購物一樣可笑。若想抬頭滿天星空的話﹐何必強求在城市中觀看﹐而影響千萬人的生活質素呢。大可以放假時外出旅行﹐到遠離人煙的國家公園露營。體驗一下躺在星空下的樂趣﹐細數夜空中畫破天際銀河裏的星星﹐向從外太空掉進大氣層的流星許願。在國家公園是有燈光管制﹐在那兒光線的確是一種污染﹐因為會破壞大自然的景色。在大城市的燈光並非污染﹐而是人類現代生活的必須品。反過來在城市中黑暗才是污染﹐污染了我們燈火通明不夜天的美麗。正如我們去歌劇院要肅靜﹐可是沒有人會去看足球賽﹐ 卻投訴球場內吶喊的球迷在製造嘈音吧。

誠然環保人士的說話也不是一無是處﹐他們對燈光浪費電力的指控倒是有根據。現今很多照明採用發光效率奇差的鎢絲燈泡﹐大部份電力轉化成熱能而非光能。採用光管式的慳電膽可以節省多達一半的用電量﹐若進一步改用最新科技的LED燈﹐更可以把用電量再大幅降低。照亮黑夜是需要的電力﹐大部份是從化石能源生產出來。眾所週知化石能源不是再生能源﹐地球上只有既定的存量﹐用光了就沒用。照明系統應該改用再生能源﹐如太陽能或水力發電等。在外國很多街燈裝有太陽能電池﹐白天把電力儲起來﹐晚上就用來發光照明﹐不用浪費供電網的電力。未來的科技發展會讓我們不用再依靠化石能源來照明﹐也許在太空中建造巨大的反光鏡﹐或用光纖把白晝地區的光線引導給黑夜地區使用。珍惜善用地球的資源十分重要﹐但解決能源問題的唯一方法是創造和發展﹐而不是龜縮回去黑暗的中古世紀。

Speaking in front of CEO

Today we have a very special Toastmaster meeting. We invited the company CEO, Bob, to give a speech in the club and have a recognition ceremony for the club members. The speech by Bob is about career development. It is not the boiler plate speech he gave in the staff update. It is more inline with a Toastmaster inspiring speech. He told us stories from his career, then use the stories to emphasis the importance of the lessons he had learned.

From a bad presentation experience he once had in front of the CEO in TI, he learned the chance of speaking in front of the executives is very valuable, so don’t bomb it. The executives only have a few minutes of attention span, so you have to cut to the point fast, raise their interest and then explain the details later if they let you continue. Don’t try to deliver too many points, most people can remember a few points anyways. It is important to drive a few key points into their mind, so he can still remember what you talk when they walk out from the door. Those few minutes of presentation is the only chance for many people to leave a good impression to the executives, and at the end of the day it is the impression that counts.

Then he told us a story about why he left TI. There was a merge between three divisions. He was leading the most profitable division but the top jobs goes to another leading a money losing division. He thought he is smarter, more hard working, with good track record, so he should get the job. The lessons here is even you are very capable, you still have to good forester relationship with people at work, especially the right people. The guy who got the job is the one who can influence the directors to talk to the decision makers. Another tips from Bob is try to imagine where you will be in 5 years, then project the image onto yourself. Once again, it’s the appearance that matters. Dress and act like the person you want to be, and when time comes people need to find replace for that position, they will think of you first.

The last story was about him scrubbing the toilet in his summer job. This lesson is about managing expectation. Don’t look down on small and tedious jobs, you may amaze people how well you exceed their expectation.

Since it is a toastmaster meeting, I can’t help from counter the ums, ahs and all other blunder Bob made in his speech. Later in the meeting, he was invited to take table topic and got evaluated! No hands in pocket, it is not a good speech gesture and sign of nerviness.

As usual, I am one of the daring few speak in front of the CEO. I asked him a question in the Q&A session when everyone seems to remain silence. I guess I broke the dead air. I asked him how he made the jump from being an engineer to a manager. I think this question fits well with theme of today. In the table topic session, again there are not many people willing to speak in front of Bob, except Chris and me. Speaking in front of the CEO and get him know your name may or may not matter, but at least it couldn’t do any harm. Of course, unless you totally screwed up your speech and make an idiot out of yourself.

Bob Bailey